Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine

Current Time: Wednesday, January 8, 2025, 04:03 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine is characterized by a continued Russian offensive in the Donetsk region, a stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region, and pervasive drone warfare. Russian forces are making significant advances in Donetsk, particularly around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk, with the latter being in a critical state. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging drones, especially around Kyiv. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kursk is facing strong resistance, with reports of heavy losses on both sides. A significant development is the confirmed drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, Saratov region of Russia, with the governor acknowledging a downed drone and debris impacting the facility, and reports indicating damage to a local oil depot.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Kurakhove "Factually Lost": Ukrainian forces are struggling to defend a narrow area of Kurakhove, including a thermal power plant. Ukrainian journalist Butusov reports that the city is "factually lost."
• Toretsk in Critical Condition: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control, with battles ongoing along major streets. Russian forces are advancing into the western and northern parts of the city, with reports of close-quarters combat and special forces operations to clear buildings. Russian forces report they have taken the building of school #3.
• Shevchenko and Ivanivka Captured: The 114th brigade of Russian forces has reportedly liberated Shevchenko, continuing their advance beyond Kurakhove. Russian forces have also reportedly captured Ivanivka.
• Intensified Attacks near Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka, Yelizavetovka, and Baranovka. Russian forces are also conducting attacks in the direction of Zverevo and Kotlino, southwest of the city.
• Heroic Battle near Pokrovsk: A Russian tank, accompanied by two BMPs, engaged two Ukrainian tanks at a close range near Yelyzavetivka, east of Pokrovsk. The Russian tank successfully destroyed one Ukrainian tank, while the second retreated.
• Other Key Locations:
  • Lysivka: Russian forces report further advances towards the central part of the village.
  • Sukhoi Yar: Fighting continues.
  • Southwest of Pokrovsk: Russian troops are advancing from Pisky towards the T-0406 highway and the railway line.
  • Volkovo: Russian artillery reportedly destroyed an enemy ammunition depot, and the settlement was subsequently captured.
  • Vozdvyzhenka: After capturing the settlement, Russian forces are advancing further.
  • Krasnoarmiisk Direction: Positional fighting continues in the Krasnoarmiisk-Novoaleksandrivka direction.
  • Belogorovka: Russian forces report successful advances by the 7th Brigade.
  • Chasiv Yar: Russian forces report they have taken new positions in the northern part of the city, advancing up to 1.5 km.
  • Velyka Novosilka: Ukrainian forces report that a Russian drone control center was destroyed.
  • Sukhoi Yar: Soldiers of the 68th Army Corps destroyed a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports indicating that up to 50% of Ukrainian infantry in the area may consist of prisoners, including those forcibly mobilized. The offensive has reportedly исчерпал (exhausted) its momentum.
• Russian Consolidation: Russian forces are consolidating positions, entering Malaya Loknya and advancing in Makhnovka. Fighting continues near Malaya Loknya. Russian forces report significant advances of several kilometers.
• Heavy Losses: Both sides are suffering significant losses. Geolocated footage confirms Ukrainian tactical advances, but simultaneous Russian advances indicate a fluid situation. Russian sources claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days, with 14 Ukrainian soldiers captured near Berdin. Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers have been taken prisoner.
• Intense Aerial Bombardment: Reports indicate an unprecedented number of Russian air sorties, with bombers continuously striking Ukrainian positions.
• Other Key Locations:
  • Leonidovo: Russian forces are making progress in the forests of the Sudzhansky district and near Leonidovo and Kurilovka.
  • Kruhlenky: The Russian Army is conducting a powerful offensive, storming Kruglenkoye and advancing towards Sudzha, Martynovka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
  • Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: Russian forces advanced to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
  • Ukrainian Infiltration Attempts: Ukrainian reserves are being brought into Lebedevka and Sverdlikovo.
• Successful Tank Elimination: Ukrainian tanks were destroyed by Russian Lancet loitering munitions near Berdin.
• ISW Report: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Ukrainian forces have made progress in the Kursk region northwest of Sudzha.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River).

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare continues to be a major factor, with new reports of drone movements across various oblasts, including Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Mykolaiv.
• New Drone Movements:
  • Four drones are reported to be circling in the north of Kyiv Oblast.
  • One drone is reported east of Cherkasy, with a southern course.
  • One drone is reported north of Kropyvnytskyi, with a southwestern course.
  • One drone is reported to be flying over Pereyaslav towards Cherkasy Oblast.
  • Drones are reported in the north of Chernihiv Oblast with a northern course.
  • A group of drones are reported in the north of Kyiv Oblast with a northern course.
  • A drone is reported in the east of Kyiv Oblast with a southern course.
  • A drone is reported in the east of Cherkasy Oblast with a southern course.
  • A drone is reported in Kirovohrad Oblast with a southern course.
  • One drone is flying over Boryspil towards Kyiv.
  • One drone has turned towards Obukhiv, while another drone from the north is approaching Vyshhorod.
  • One drone is flying over Bucha with a southern course.
  • One drone is approaching Hostomel.
  • One drone is circling in Belarus.
  • Two drones are moving from Kirovohrad Oblast to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • Russian guided aerial bombs, likely launched by tactical aircraft, impacted the outskirts of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The type of munitions and the extent of the damage are being assessed.
  • Drones are reported on Kyiv Oblast with a southern course.
  • Drones are reported on Kirovohrad Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • Drones are reported on the west of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading southeast.
• Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging drones, particularly around Kyiv. A Ukrainian drone was shot down over the Bryansk region of Russia. Five drones were shot down in the Rostov region of Russia, specifically in the Millerovsky, Chertkovsky, and Azov regions. Three additional drones were shot down in the Bryansk region, with no reported casualties.
• Drone Strikes: Video evidence shows Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian targets, including a command post and a fuel depot. Reports indicate that Russian forces launched an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with 8 drones. Russian forces have reportedly used drones with attached anti-tank mines to attack Ukrainian positions. The governor of Saratov confirms that Saratov and Engels were subjected to a massive drone attack during the night. The governor also reported damage to an industrial facility. There are reports of damage to a local oil depot in Engels.

Air Attacks and Alerts

• Increased Activity: Increased activity of Russian tactical aviation is reported in the north-eastern direction. There are also reports of activity on the south-eastern direction, with the threat of Russian aviation weapons.
• Threat of Shahed Drones: A threat of Shahed drones is reported in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts.
• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts were activated in several regions of Ukraine due to the threat of ballistic missile usage and drone attacks. An air raid alert is active in Kyiv due to drone activity, with reports of air defense systems engaging the drones. The air raid alert in Kyiv has been lifted.
• Russian Airstrikes: Russian forces conducted airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, and Zolochiv, Kharkiv Oblast.

Geopolitical Developments

• US Special Representative's Visit Postponed: The US Special Representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has postponed his visit to Kyiv until after Trump's inauguration.
• Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd.
• Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky has expressed a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited. He also stated that elections in Ukraine could be held 90 days after the war's end.
• Trump's Potential Pardon: Former US President Donald Trump has reportedly promised to pardon around 1,000 people involved in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot.
• Western countries' plan for Ukraine's military needs: Western countries are reportedly planning to divide Ukraine's military needs into categories and assign NATO member states responsibility for supplying each, according to a Pentagon representative.
• Tesla Cybertruck Incident: The individual suspected of detonating a Tesla Cybertruck outside a Trump-owned hotel in Las Vegas reportedly used the generative AI ChatGPT in the planning of the crime, according to Las Vegas Metro Police Sheriff Kevin McMahill.
• Venezuela: Seven foreign mercenaries, including three from Ukraine, were detained in Venezuela for allegedly preparing terrorist acts.

Other Significant Developments

• Ukrainian Military Reports: The Ukrainian General Staff reports significant Russian equipment losses.
• Mobilization Challenges: Reports indicate unlawful conscription of employees from a critical enterprise in the Mykolaiv region. A video has emerged showing a Ukrainian military officer using a pistol to threaten and assault a conscript. The location of the incident is unknown.
• Naval Activity: The Ukrainian Navy reports ongoing naval operations, with a focus on the Mediterranean Sea and continued use of the Kerch Strait by Russian forces.
• Incidents in Russia: A gas explosion occurred in a residential building in Petrozavodsk, Russia.
• Alleged Information Leak: There are reports of an alleged leak of information about the Kursk counteroffensive, which may have contributed to its failure.
• Alleged Drone Attack in Engels: Images and videos depict a large fire and smoke plume at night in Engels, Saratov Oblast, Russia, allegedly caused by a Ukrainian drone attack. The target appears to be an industrial facility, possibly an oil depot. The governor of the region confirmed that a drone was shot down and its debris hit an industrial facility. Russian media reported around 40 explosions in the city.
• Russian Air Strike on Ukrainian Forces: A Russian Su-34 bomber, accompanied by a Su-35S fighter, reportedly struck a Ukrainian stronghold and personnel in the Kursk border region.
• Alleged Atrocities in Selidovo: A video presents allegations of Ukrainian forces abusing civilians in Selidovo. This event carries significant propaganda value, fitting into a broader pattern of information warfare.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and volatile. Russian forces continue to make significant advances in the Donetsk region, with intense fighting around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region is facing strong resistance, with both sides suffering heavy losses. The ISW report indicating Ukrainian progress near Sudzha is contradicted by Russian sources claiming significant advances and consolidation of positions in the area. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with widespread drone activity across multiple oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging drones, particularly around Kyiv. The confirmed drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, Saratov region of Russia, marks a significant escalation and demonstrates Ukraine's ability to strike deep inside Russian territory. The confirmation by the regional governor adds credibility to the reports and the downing of five additional drones in the Rostov region of Russia highlights the intensity of the drone campaign. The attack, if confirmed to be of Ukrainian origin, could have significant implications for the conflict, potentially leading to retaliatory strikes by Russia and a further escalation of hostilities. The use of guided aerial bombs by Russian forces near Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates a continued threat to Ukrainian infrastructure and military positions. The situation is further complicated by geopolitical developments, including the potential meeting between Scholz and Putin, and Zelensky's statements on NATO membership and elections. The alleged atrocities in Selidovo, while needing further verification, highlight the ongoing information warfare and the potential for propaganda to influence public perception. The video showing a Ukrainian military officer assaulting a conscript, if authentic, points to potential issues with morale, discipline, and recruitment practices within the Ukrainian military. The use of drones with attached anti-tank mines by Russian forces is another example of the evolving tactics in the conflict. The reported use of ChatGPT in the planning of the Tesla Cybertruck bombing in Las Vegas, while seemingly unrelated, raises questions about the potential misuse of AI in criminal or even terrorist activities, which could have broader implications for security and law enforcement. The new messages confirm continued intense drone activity, particularly around Kyiv, with reports of air defense systems actively engaging drones. Three additional drones were shot down in the Bryansk region, adding to the five previously reported in the Rostov region, highlighting the persistent threat of drone attacks on Russian territory. The confirmation of a massive drone attack on Saratov and Engels by the regional governor underscores the scale and intensity of the Ukrainian drone campaign. The detention of foreign mercenaries in Venezuela, including three allegedly from Ukraine, adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical situation, although the direct link to the conflict in Ukraine remains unclear.