Strategic Overview: January 7, 2025, 22:33 UTC

The military situation in Ukraine is highly critical, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Russian forces have secured significant gains, capturing Kurakhove and consolidating their control around Toretsk. Ukrainian control in Toretsk is reduced to less than 15%, with the city under intense attack. The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces pushing back, regaining lost territory, and inflicting heavy losses, estimated at 48,000 Ukrainian casualties. The reported increase in Belarusian military presence along the Ukrainian border adds a dimension of concern, although there is no current threat of an invasion from Belarus by regular forces. Drone warfare remains a significant aspect of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance and offensive operations. The Ukrainian Air Force has issued a threat of aerial attacks on the Dnipropetrovsk region, and reports indicate extensive drone activity across multiple oblasts. Guided aerial bombs were launched by Russian tactical aviation in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Russian forces are preparing to attack further past Kurakhove after capturing the city center.

Key Updates

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces have captured Kurakhove, consolidating their positions and posing a direct threat to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. Ukrainian forces are reportedly holding the western part of Kurakhove, including a thermal power plant, but the situation is difficult due to the destruction of buildings. The rapid loss of the central part of the city has severely impacted the morale of Ukrainian units.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, with less than 15% of the city under Ukrainian control. Russian forces are advancing, controlling the southern part and reportedly conducting clean-up operations. Street fighting continues in the city.
Russian Advances: Russian forces are making gains near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. They are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka. Russian forces are approaching the western and northwestern outskirts of Dzerzhynsk.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian military equipment and personnel, with a mass drone attack reported in the Pokrovsk direction.
Chasiv Yar: Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and an advance of up to 1.5 km.
ISW Assessment: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) considers the encirclement of Pokrovsk a key Russian operational goal.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks near Vasyukovka, Bondarnoye, Chasov Yar, and Stupochki, with five clashes ongoing.
On the Toretsk direction, three Russian attacks were reported near Toretsk, with one ongoing.
On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes of varying intensity, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near Tarasovka, Vodyanoye Vtoroye, Elizavetovka, Promin, Lysovka, Sukhoi Yar, Zelenoye, Novy Trud, and Pokrovsk. Five clashes are ongoing.
On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near Sribnoye, Andreevka, Kurakhovo, and Dachnoye, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
In the Krasnoarmiisk direction (right flank), Russian units have advanced towards Vodyane Druhe and Tarasovka, with ongoing battles for Baranovka and Yelyzavetivka.
Russian forces launched an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with 8 drones.
Russian forces are intensifying their attacks on Pokrovsk.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly stabilized the situation near Kruhliakivka and Kolisnykivka in the Kharkiv region, preventing further Russian advances along the Oskil River.
Russian forces have begun using FAB guided bombs with UMPC against targets in the Dnipropetrovsk region. This was made possible by the closer proximity of the front lines to the region.
Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aircraft were reported in the Donetsk region.
New: A series of FAB bombs were dropped on Ukrainian positions in the Krasnoarmiisk direction.

Kursk Region

Ukrainian Offensive Stalled: The Ukrainian offensive faces strong resistance, with Russian forces reporting the repulsion of Ukrainian counterattacks and claiming to have inflicted heavy losses, estimated at 48,000 Ukrainian casualties.
Russian Counterattack and Advances: Russian forces report repelling a Ukrainian counterattack near Berdin and claim to have destroyed multiple Ukrainian vehicles, including a British Challenger tank. They are engaged in battles near Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Kruglenkoye, with ongoing assaults towards Viktorovka. Russian forces are making advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka and Leonidovo, which has been taken under Russian control. Russian paratroopers have reportedly pushed Ukrainian forces out of Novosotnitskoe and prevented them from approaching Berdino. Assault operations are ongoing in Alexandria and in the direction of Nikolsky. Russian forces claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian S-300 air defense system near Malaya Loknya. Russian forces are also reportedly using S-300 missiles to strike Sudzha.
Continued Fighting: Fighting continues near Berdin and Malaya Loknya. Russian forces are making advances in Nikolaevo-Daryino and Russkoye Porechnoye. There are reports of battles for Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Ukrainian Retreat: Approximately 40 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly retreated from Berdin to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Reports indicate that Russian forces have advanced in Makhnovka and are moving towards Zamostye.
Russian forces are pushing Ukrainian forces out of Novosotnitskoe and Berdino.
British intelligence reports that Russian losses in December 2024 reached a new monthly maximum, with 48,670 soldiers killed or wounded. A record single-day loss of 2,200 Russian troops was reported on December 19.
The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian forces carried out a precision strike on a Russian command post in the Kursk region.
Ukrainian forces struck the command post of the Russian 810th Separate Marine Brigade in the Kursk region. The high-precision strike was carried out in the area of the settlement of Bila.
On the Kursk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled 27 attacks, with the enemy also conducting six airstrikes with 17 KABs and 146 artillery shellings, including six from multiple rocket launchers.
A wounded Russian soldier from the Bolshoye Soldatskoye area in the Kursk region recorded a farewell message, believing evacuation was impossible, but was rescued by the 810th brigade.
The "Archangel of Special Forces Z" reported that the situation in the Kursk region is stable, with enemy infantry attempting to gain positions in nearby forests and settlements. The enemy reportedly suffered losses of two vehicles and about 30 personnel during night operations near Berdin, supported by the 272nd Regiment and Akhmat special forces. Fighting continues in the direction of Russkoye Porechnoye.
Russian forces have captured Leonidovo.
"Полк контроля территорий" reports that they conducted a reconnaissance operation in the rear of their positions following an enemy advance in a forested area near Berdin in the Kursk region. Two enemy combatants were discovered attempting to conceal themselves in dense undergrowth. Upon being offered the opportunity to surrender, they opened fire and were subsequently eliminated.
Russian forces continue to push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region. The settlement of Makhnovka was liberated, and Russian troops advanced towards Zamostye, engaging enemy positions.
Geolocation of battles in the Kursk region has been established, indicating the areas where Ukrainian forces attacked.
The intensified fighting in the Kursk region signifies a broadening of the conflict zone.
Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
DeepState denies reports of the occupation of Lozova in the Kharkiv region.
Russian forces have destroyed a German Leopard 2A6 tank in the Kursk region.
According to "Voenkor Kotenok", fighting continues near Kotlyno, and Ukrainian forces are struggling to contain the Russian advance. The weather is reportedly hindering Russian progress more than Ukrainian defenses.
Russian forces are using S-300 missiles to strike Sudzha.
Russian sources report that Russian forces have destroyed a number of their own villages, including Sverdlikovo, Lebedivka, Malaya Loknya, Daryino, Makhnovka, and Plyokhovo.
New: An airstrike was conducted on a temporary deployment point of Ukrainian forces in Nikolsky, Kursk region, using a FAB-3000 bomb with UMPK.

Luhansk Region

Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
They destroyed about 10 Ukrainian soldiers and entered a large stronghold west of Ivanovka.

Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare is a dominant feature of the conflict. Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets. Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast. Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans. Ukrainian drone operators targeted and killed a Russian soldier in the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot. Ukrainian forces report destroying 3 Russian BTRs.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of drone activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Air raid alerts have been lifted in Zaporizhzhia oblast.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts are active in Kyiv and several other regions. An air alarm was announced in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov region, with a column of smoke seen rising near military-technical property warehouses.
Missile Attacks: Reports indicate the use of high-speed missiles, potentially KN-23 type, targeting Chernihiv. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have carried out multiple strikes with high-precision weapons and UAVs, targeting Ukrainian military-industrial complex facilities, airfields, arsenals, and other targets. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) in the direction of Kharkiv and Donetsk. A missile threat is reported for the Rostov and Krasnodar regions.
New Drone Activity:
- Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west. One drone was reported east of Zviahel, moving southwest. Two drones are reported to be heading towards Malyn, and two more towards Narodychi.
- Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west. Three drones are reported to be circling in the north, with one approaching Boryspil and one having flown past Obukhiv towards Kyiv. 1 drone is approaching Boryspil. 2 drones are flying from Poltava region to Cherkasy. 1 drone is flying from Kirovohrad region to Vinnytsia. 3 new drones are flying through Shostka area, heading southwest. Three drones are maneuvering near Chernobyl.
- Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west. Two drones are reported to be circling north of Chernihiv, and one is reported to be southwest of Chernihiv with a southeast trajectory. One drone is also reported to be circling near Pryluky. Two drones are heading towards Varva. A drone is in the center of Chernihiv Oblast, heading east. 1 drone north of Nizhyn, moving towards Chernihiv. 1 drone is heading via Konotop towards Sumy. 1 drone near Pryluky, moving northwest. A drone was detected in the western part of Chernihiv region, moving west. Another drone was detected in the southeastern part of Chernihiv region, moving west. City of Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast) is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the northeast. A drone is reported on the northeast of Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
- Sumy Oblast: Two drones are heading towards Romny, and one towards Lypova Dolyna. A drone is in the west of Zhytomyr Oblast, with a western/southwestern course. New drones were reported entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk. Drones in the north of Sumy region, course - south-west. Five drones near Konotop, moving southwest.
- Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest.
- Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are reported to be moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Three drones are also reported to be near Lozova. A drone is in the west of Kharkiv Oblast, with a western course.
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is reported to be in the Kryvyi Rih district with a trajectory towards the Kherson region, and another is flying over Dolynska in a southerly direction. One drone is also reported to be circling over Samara. A drone is in the north of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a western course. A drone is approaching Kremenchuk. A reconnaissance drone was detected north of Pavlograd.
- Poltava Oblast: One drone is reported to be circling south of Poltava. One drone was reported west of Kremenchuk, constantly changing course. A drone is in the northeast of Poltava Oblast, with a southwesterly course. Three drones are heading towards Pyriatyn, and one towards Lubny. Drones in the west of Poltava region, course - west / southwest. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest.
- Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course. One drone is reported to be in the western part, moving south. Enemy drone is moving in the direction of Cherkasy from the southeast. One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast.
Russian drones are targeting multiple regions, including Chernihiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk.
Ukrainian Air Defense: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of successful interceptions.
Air Force Activity: The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian drones in the Chernihiv region.
FPV drone team of Sever Group of Forces reportedly wipes out AFU buggy in Kharkiv region. AFU troops used this buggy to rotate personnel. Russian drone operators destroyed the enemy's vehicle by a precise strike.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
Missile Attacks: Reports indicate the use of high-speed missiles, potentially KN-23 type, targeting Chernihiv.
Drones in the center of Chernihiv region, course - south / south-west.
Drones in the east of Kyiv region, course - west / north-west.
Drones on the border of Kirovohrad and Odesa regions, course - west.
340 additional drones have been procured by Ukrainian forces thanks to donations, bringing the total to 134,114 FPV drones. Overnight, Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 10 Russian drones over Cherkasy Oblast.
Ukrainian forces report a 19-fold increase in the supply of drones to their units in 2024, compared to the previous year.
Ukrainian forces successfully employed a drone to eliminate a single Russian soldier.
Explosions were reported in Cherkasy and its outskirts.
Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk using drones. The "Hart" brigade carried out the operation.
New: A video from "Butusov Plus" shows Ukrainian forces targeting and destroying Russian infantry and vehicles with drones in a snowy environment. The video highlights the use of thermal imaging and precision targeting.
New: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that they have detected attack drones in Chernihiv oblast heading southwest, a group of drones in the north of Sumy oblast heading west, and another drone in the south of Sumy oblast heading south.
New: Fighters of the 16th Special Forces Brigade eliminated a Russian pickup truck, three soldiers, and a 120-mm mortar in the Serebryansky forest using an FPV drone with fiber optics.

Geopolitical Developments

Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky has indicated a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and expressed openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited. He also held numerous meetings, including with the Ministry of Defense, the General Staff, and the Foreign Intelligence Service, to discuss available aid packages, Ukraine's needs, and preparations for the upcoming Ramstein meeting. Additionally, he discussed details of Ukraine's work with the EU regarding the negotiation process for membership, emphasizing the importance of this year being result-oriented in these negotiations.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest that German Chancellor Scholz may meet with Russian President Putin before February 23.
US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, but the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th.
Macron's Statement: Macron has called on Ukrainians to engage in "realistic discussions" on territorial issues, suggesting that a quick and easy solution in Ukraine is unlikely. Macron also stated that Trump knows that the US has no chance of winning anything if Ukraine loses.
Moldova and Ukraine: Media outlets from Moldova and Ukraine are reportedly attempting to undermine Transnistria's trust in Russia, according to the Russian embassy. The Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned a representative of the Russian embassy following statements about the energy crisis in Transnistria.
BRICS: The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced Indonesia's accession to BRICS as a full member.
Trudeau's Resignation: Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation as Prime Minister of Canada and leader of the Liberal Party, effective after his successor is chosen.
Death of Jean-Marie Le Pen: The founder of the French far-right party "National Front", Jean-Marie Le Pen, has died at the age of 96.
Mark Zuckerberg reportedly criticized the censorship of American Big Tech on social media, despite being one of the promoters of total censorship.
Patriarch Kirill, in an interview with TASS, claimed that Western political forces fear Russia's spiritual dominance.
Sky News reports that a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia might be possible by Easter, with the new Trump administration potentially pushing for a quick resolution.
The Guardian reports that Donald Trump Jr. has arrived in Greenland, following his father's statements about gaining control over the territory, although Trump Jr. claims his visit is purely for tourism.
TASS reports that Donald Trump has praised the reception of his delegation in Greenland and reiterated the need for a deal to incorporate the Danish autonomy into the USA.
TASS reports that Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, Mikhail Drapaty, has acknowledged the desertion of Ukrainian servicemen from the "Anna Kyivska" brigade, which was trained in France.
Donald Trump has stated his intention to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.
Apple CEO's Potential Donation to Trump's Inauguration: Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, is reportedly planning to donate $1 million to Donald Trump's inauguration.
Legal Action Against Von Der Leyen: A Belgian court will consider whether European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has legal immunity against corruption allegations related to the purchase of COVID-19 vaccines.
German Foreign Minister on Aid to Syria: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has made the provision of aid to Syria under new authorities dependent on respect for women's rights, stating that the EU will not send money "to Islamist structures."
North Korean Missile Launch: North Korea has reportedly launched a suspected ballistic missile, according to the Japanese coast guard. The missile fell outside of Japan's exclusive economic zone in the Sea of Japan.
Trump's Potential Pardon: Former US President Donald Trump has reportedly promised to pardon around 1,000 people involved in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot. This could potentially impact the US political landscape and influence future support for Ukraine.
Medvedev's Statement on Zelensky: Dmitry Medvedev, a prominent Russian figure, has intensified his rhetoric against Zelensky, stating that the Russian people's disdain for him should not end with his removal from office. This further highlights the personal animosity and deep-seated tensions between the two sides.
Hungarian Foreign Minister's Statement: Hungary has resumed the operation of its embassy in Syria, according to Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has officially supported the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, stating that it is an important operation to strengthen Kyiv's position before future negotiations with Moscow.
Reports from "Novinite" suggest that Putin may consider allowing Ukraine to join NATO under certain conditions, including the withdrawal of US military bases from Eastern Europe and the partial lifting of economic sanctions against Russia.
Trump has stated that Biden is to blame for the conflict in Ukraine, claiming that the previous administration's incompetence provoked the conflict. He also mentioned that Russia would not have attacked Ukraine if he had been president.
Trump has expressed his intention to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America and criticized Mexico's migration policy.
Trump has indicated that he will not guarantee the security of Ukrainian citizens in the event of peace negotiations.
New US Military Aid Package: The Biden administration is set to announce a "substantial" final weapons package for Ukraine during the upcoming "Ramstein" meeting. The exact amount is unknown, but approximately $4 billion remains unspent, although the aid will not cover the entire remaining sum. It is suggested that "over a couple of billion dollars" may be left for the new Trump administration to provide to Ukraine, if they choose to do so.
Trump's Statements on Ukraine: Trump has reiterated his claim that Russia's actions in Ukraine were a result of the perceived incompetence of the Biden administration, particularly citing the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. He also stated that he "understands Russia's feelings" regarding Ukraine's potential NATO membership and emphasized that the conflict would end under his administration.
Trump's Statements on NATO and Ukraine: Trump has expressed his support for the view that Ukraine should not be a part of NATO, aligning with Russia's stance on the issue.
Trump's Plan to End the War: Trump has stated that he hopes to end the war in Ukraine within six months, a change from his previous claim of 24 hours.
The US has imposed sanctions on Antal Rogán, the head of the Hungarian Prime Minister's Office.
President Zelensky has signed a law creating a list of terrorist organizations in Ukraine, aimed at strengthening national security and counter-terrorism efforts.
The Center for Countering Disinformation has stated that there is no current threat of an invasion by regular Belarusian troops. The buildup of Belarusian forces on the border does not indicate the formation of strike groups or preparation for offensive actions.
There are reports that Elon Musk's mental state may have deteriorated, according to his biographer, Seth Abramson. Abramson cites stress, mental disorders, and drug use as contributing factors. He also suggests that Musk's control over critical industries and his proximity to the new president pose a threat to the US.
A high-ranking Pentagon official has stated that the arrival of a new Trump administration will not affect the work of the group of Western countries coordinating arms supplies to Ukraine.
New: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov expressed his condolences to the Chinese Foreign Minister regarding the earthquake in Tibet.
New: Today, 101,215 Ukrainians participated in an online vote for members of the Public Anti-Corruption Council under the Ministry of Defense. The results will be officially announced within 5 working days.

Other Significant Developments

Casualty Reports: Ukrainian forces report significant Russian casualties, while Russian sources claim even heavier Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region.
Troop Mobilization: Ukraine has reportedly mobilized 200,000 troops in 2024, falling short of the 500,000 called for by former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny.
Environmental Concerns: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea have reached the coasts of Crimea, causing the deaths of dolphins.
Serbia's Energy Supply: Serbia is seeking new oil and gas supply routes due to the threat of US sanctions.
Czech Republic Military Aid: The Czech Republic issued 40 permits for Czech citizens to fight for Ukraine in the past year but rejected nearly twice as many applications.
Satellite Image Analysis: The satellite image reveals a high-value area with a strategically important palace/complex, potential avenues of approach via roads, a key naval access point with the marina, and possible landing zones on the beaches and open field.
Ukrainian Naval Update: The Ukrainian Navy reports that one enemy warship, a "Kalibr" missile carrier, is present in the Black Sea, but no missile firings are reported. In the Sea of Azov, no enemy warships or missile carriers are present. In the Mediterranean Sea, seven enemy warships, including two "Kalibr" missile carriers, are present, with 22 missile firings reported.
Chechnya: Chechen bots reportedly wrote over 60 million comments in a year to create the appearance of support for local authorities.
Syria: There are reports of US military personnel starting the construction of a military base in Kobani (Ayn al-Arab) in northern Syria.
Ust-Luga Terminal Attack: New details have emerged about the attack on the Ust-Luga terminal, carried out by SBU drones. The drones reportedly traveled over 900 km and successfully hit their target, causing significant damage to gas condensate tanks.
Explosion in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky: An air raid alert was declared in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov region, followed by a column of smoke rising near military-technical property warehouses. The warehouses are reportedly combined with the production facility of FKP "Kombinat "Kamensky", which has previously been attacked.
New Medical Equipment in Dnipropetrovsk region: One of the regional hospitals has received a new angiograph, which will allow for more precise diagnostics and treatment, especially for patients with head artery damage.
Capture of US Army M577: Russian forces claim to have captured a US Army M577 command post vehicle in the Kursk region, with markings indicating it belonged to the 2nd Battalion, 69th Armor Regiment.
Frontline Christmas in Donetsk People's Republic: A video report highlights the celebration of Orthodox Christmas on the front lines in the DPR, with Russian military personnel receiving gifts and medical personnel being recognized for their service. The report emphasizes the ongoing fighting and the provision of new medical equipment to a hospital in Horlivka.
Reconstruction Efforts in Avdiivka: A video shows ongoing reconstruction efforts in Avdiivka, with a focus on restoring normalcy and improving living conditions for residents. The video highlights the installation of new windows, the presence of Christmas decorations, and interactions between soldiers and civilians.
Internal Russian Military Issues: A video message from a Russian soldier, Sergei Pirkin, alleges threats from his commanders and misconduct within his unit (military unit 40318). He claims that criminal cases have been opened against his commanders but that they remain free. Pirkin is currently being held in a military commandant's office for not returning from leave due to a contusion and his mother's health condition.
A naval ship belonging to the Swedish Navy reportedly discovered the anchor of the Eagle S vessel, suspected of damaging a cable between Finland and Estonia in the Gulf of Finland.
New: Andriy Biletsky, the first commander of the "Azov" regiment, believes that without large-scale positive changes, Ukraine will simply disappear from the world map. He believes that 2025 could see a halt to the war, but regardless, real reforms are needed. He sees an acute need for long-overdue and obvious decisions in the army, military-industrial complex, economy, energy, etc. As a military man, he cannot talk about energy or the economy, but in his field, he sees the need for these changes.

Changes to the Situation from New Messages

The new messages indicate a continued intensification of aerial warfare, with reports of multiple drone movements across various regions of Ukraine, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Kyiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk.
Ukrainian air defense forces remain on high alert and are actively engaging hostile drones.
The use of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in the Dnipropetrovsk region, particularly the targeting of Ukrainian positions with FAB bombs in the Krasnoarmiisk direction, marks a significant development. This suggests a potential escalation in Russian air attacks and highlights the vulnerability of Ukrainian forces to precision-guided munitions.
The reported airstrike on a temporary deployment point of Ukrainian forces in Nikolsky, Kursk region, using a FAB-3000 bomb with UMPK, further emphasizes the intensification of the conflict in this area.
The video analysis of the Ukrainian soldier's actions in Dnipro, where military personnel allegedly assaulted a man at a train station, raises concerns about internal tensions and potential human rights violations within Ukraine. The incident also highlights the risk of escalating civilian unrest and dissatisfaction with the military.
The video from "Butusov Plus" showcasing Ukrainian drone operations against Russian forces in a snowy environment demonstrates the continued effectiveness of drone warfare and its impact on ground battles. The use of thermal imaging and precision targeting highlights the tactical advantage that drones provide.
The statement from a high-ranking Pentagon official that the arrival of a new Trump administration will not affect the work of the group of Western countries coordinating arms supplies to Ukraine provides some reassurance regarding continued international support.
The participation of over 100,000 Ukrainians in an online vote for members of the Public Anti-Corruption Council under the Ministry of Defense indicates a commitment to transparency and accountability within the Ukrainian government.
Andriy Biletsky's statement about the need for large-scale positive changes in Ukraine underscores the urgency of reforms across various sectors, including the military, economy, and energy.

Overall Assessment

The situation remains highly fluid and volatile. Russian forces maintain offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region, while Ukrainian forces face mounting challenges. The increasing use of drones and guided aerial bombs, the geographical expansion of the conflict, and the evolving geopolitical landscape contribute to the complexity of the situation. The coming days will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and the potential for further escalation.

Situation Report