Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine

As of January 7, 2025, 17:33 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Russian forces maintain offensive operations, particularly around Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk in the Donetsk region, where the situation is critical for Ukrainian forces. In Kurakhove, Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city, and in Toretsk, less than 15% remains under Ukrainian control. A major Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has resulted in severe Ukrainian losses, estimated at 48,000 casualties. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with both sides utilizing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 128 combat clashes since the beginning of the day, with the enemy concentrating efforts on the Pokrovsk, Kurakhiv, and Kursk directions. Russian artillery shelling is reported in border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv regions. The geopolitical landscape is marked by uncertainty, with potential shifts in the approach to the conflict and ongoing international support for Ukraine.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces have captured approximately 80% of Kurakhove, consolidating positions and threatening the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. Ukrainian forces reportedly hold the western part of Kurakhove, including a thermal power plant.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk is under Ukrainian control, with Russian forces advancing and controlling the southern part. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Russian forces have liberated Nadia. Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk, with only 5% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control.
Russian Advances: Russian forces are making gains near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. They are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Street fighting continues in Toretsk.
Chasiv Yar: Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and an advance of up to 1.5 km.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks near Vasyukovka, Bondarnoye, Chasov Yar, and Stupochki, with five clashes ongoing.
On the Toretsk direction, three Russian attacks were reported near Toretsk, with one ongoing.
On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes of varying intensity, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near Tarasovka, Vodyanoye Vtoroye, Elizavetovka, Promin, Lysovka, Sukhoi Yar, Zelenoye, Novy Trud, and Pokrovsk. Five clashes are ongoing.
On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near Sribnoye, Andreevka, Kurakhovo, and ** Dachnoye**, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.

Kursk Region

Major Ukrainian Offensive and Losses: A major Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has resulted in severe Ukrainian losses, estimated at 48,000 casualties.
Russian Counterattack: Russian forces report repelling a Ukrainian counterattack near Berdin and claim to have destroyed multiple Ukrainian vehicles, including a British Challenger tank.
Continued Fighting: Fighting continues near Berdin and Malaya Loknya, with Russian advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka. Leonidovo has been taken under Russian control. Russian forces are making advances in Nikolaevo-Daryino and Russkoye Porechnoye. There are reports of battles for Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Reports indicate that Russian forces have advanced in Makhnovka and are moving towards Zamostye. Russian forces are pushing Ukrainian forces out of Novosotnitskoe and Berdino.
Ukrainian Retreat: Approximately 40 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly retreated from Berdin to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Casualties: British intelligence reports that Russian losses in December 2024 reached a new monthly maximum, with 48,670 soldiers killed or wounded. A record single-day loss of 2,200 Russian troops was reported on December 19.
A video from "Colonelcassad" shows the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar crew by a Russian FPV drone in the Kursk border area.
A video from "Операция Z" reportedly shows the destruction of NATO and Ukrainian equipment, including tanks and US-made Stryker armored personnel carriers, during an attempted offensive in the Kursk region.
The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian forces carried out a precision strike on a Russian command post in the Kursk region.
A video from "Архангел спецназа Z" shows the destruction of two Ukrainian drones by the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment using FPV drones in the Kursk region.
Ukrainian forces struck the command post of the Russian 810th Separate Marine Brigade in the Kursk region. The high-precision strike was carried out in the area of the settlement of Bila.
Video from "Kotsnews" shows Ukrainian soldiers throwing two wounded soldiers out of evacuation vehicles in the Kursk area.
On the Kursk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled 27 attacks, with the enemy also conducting six airstrikes with 17 KABs and 146 artillery shellings, including six from multiple rocket launchers.
A video from WarGonzo shows abandoned Ukrainian equipment burning on the Kursk front.
A wounded Russian soldier from the Bolshoye Soldatskoye area in the Kursk region recorded a farewell message, believing evacuation was impossible, but was rescued by the 810th brigade.
The "Archangel of Special Forces Z" reported that the situation in the Kursk region is stable, with enemy infantry attempting to gain positions in nearby forests and settlements. The enemy reportedly suffered losses of two vehicles and about 30 personnel during night operations near Berdin, supported by the 272nd Regiment and Akhmat special forces. Fighting continues in the direction of Russkoye Porechnoye.
Video footage from "Операция Z" shows the 30th Regiment destroying Ukrainian tanks during an attempted offensive in the Kursk region.
Video from "Colonelcassad" shows an unsuccessful attempt by a Ukrainian FPV drone to hit a Russian Ka-52 helicopter.
Video from "Операция Z" shows the "String" of the "Brave" destroying enemy defenses while advancing towards Pokrovsk. The footage is from the 35th Brigade of the "Center" group.
Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
Russian forces have captured Leonidovo.

Luhansk Region

Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.

Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare is a dominant feature of the conflict. Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets. FPV drones are being used extensively, particularly by Russian forces.
FPV drone team of Sever Group of Forces reportedly wipes out AFU buggy in Kharkiv region. AFU troops used this buggy to rotate personnel. Russian drone operators destroyed the enemy's vehicle by a precise strike.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
Missile Attacks: Reports indicate the use of high-speed missiles, potentially KN-23 type, targeting Chernihiv.
New Drone Activity:
- Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west.
- Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west.
- Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west.
- Sumy Oblast: Two drones are heading towards Romny, and one towards Lypova Dolyna.
- Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest.
- Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are reported to be moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is reported to be in the Kryvyi Rih district, and another is flying over Dolynska.
- Poltava Oblast: One drone is reported to be circling south of Poltava.
- Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course.
Video from "Colonelcassad" shows an unsuccessful attempt by a Ukrainian FPV drone to hit a Russian Ka-52 helicopter.
Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region.
Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans.
A video shows the elimination of a group of Russian soldiers using FPV drones by the 110th Mechanized Brigade.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting Russian positions with drones, resulting in multiple explosions and fires.
Ukrainian drone operators targeted and killed a Russian soldier in the Pokrovsk direction.
Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
Ukrainian forces report destroying 3 Russian BTRs.
Reports of drone movements in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Chernihiv Oblasts.
Drones are reported in the center of Poltava Oblast, moving northwest, and on the west of Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. A drone is reported on the northeast of Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
City of Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast) is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the northeast.
Drones in the west of Poltava region, course - west / southwest;
Drones in the north of Sumy region, course - south-west;
Drones in the center of Chernihiv region, course - south / south-west;
Drones in the east of Kyiv region, course - west / north-west;
Drones on the border of Kirovohrad and Odesa regions, course - west.
Enemy drone is moving in the direction of Cherkasy from the southeast.
One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest. Five drones near Konotop, moving southwest.
340 additional drones have been procured by Ukrainian forces thanks to donations, bringing the total to 134,114 FPV drones. Overnight, Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 10 Russian drones over Cherkasy Oblast.
Ukrainian forces report a 19-fold increase in the supply of drones to their units in 2024, compared to the previous year.
Ukrainian forces successfully employed a drone to eliminate a single Russian soldier.
Explosions were reported in Cherkasy and its outskirts.
Russian forces launched an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with 8 drones.
Video evidence of Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
"Phoenix" unit of the "Revenge" brigade repelled an assault by occupiers near Kurdyumivka in the Bakhmut area.
A video from "Старше Эдды" details an attack involving a tank and drones. The tank is identified and targeted by drones named "Князь Вандал" and "Упырь." The operation is carried out by the "Дозор" and "Заря" units of the "Ирландцы" detachment.
A video from "Два майора" details the use of hemostatic agents and wound packing techniques.
A video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows a Ukrainian FPV drone attempting to hit a Russian Ka-52 "Alligator" helicopter. The helicopter evaded the attack. The incident took place in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk using drones. The "Hart" brigade carried out the operation.

Geopolitical Developments

Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky has indicated a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and expressed openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest that German Chancellor Scholz may meet with Russian President Putin before February 23.
US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, but the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th.
Mark Zuckerberg reportedly criticized the censorship of American Big Tech on social media, despite being one of the promoters of total censorship.
Patriarch Kirill, in an interview with TASS, claimed that Western political forces fear Russia's spiritual dominance.
Sky News reports that a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia might be possible by Easter, with the new Trump administration potentially pushing for a quick resolution.
The Guardian reports that Donald Trump Jr. has arrived in Greenland, following his father's statements about gaining control over the territory, although Trump Jr. claims his visit is purely for tourism.
TASS reports that Donald Trump has praised the reception of his delegation in Greenland and reiterated the need for a deal to incorporate the Danish autonomy into the USA.
TASS reports that Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, Mikhail Drapaty, has acknowledged the desertion of Ukrainian servicemen from the "Anna Kyivska" brigade, which was trained in France.
Donald Trump has stated his intention to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.
Apple CEO's Potential Donation to Trump's Inauguration: Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, is reportedly planning to donate $1 million to Donald Trump's inauguration.
Legal Action Against Von Der Leyen: A Belgian court will consider whether European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has legal immunity against corruption allegations related to the purchase of COVID-19 vaccines.
German Foreign Minister on Aid to Syria: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has made the provision of aid to Syria under new authorities dependent on respect for women's rights, stating that the EU will not send money "to Islamist structures."
North Korean Missile Launch: North Korea has reportedly launched a suspected ballistic missile, according to the Japanese coast guard. The missile fell outside of Japan's exclusive economic zone in the Sea of Japan.
Trump's Potential Pardon: Former US President Donald Trump has reportedly promised to pardon around 1,000 people involved in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot. This could potentially impact the US political landscape and influence future support for Ukraine.
Medvedev's Statement on Zelensky: Dmitry Medvedev, a prominent Russian figure, has intensified his rhetoric against Zelensky, stating that the Russian people's disdain for him should not end with his removal from office. This further highlights the personal animosity and deep-seated tensions between the two sides.
Hungarian Foreign Minister's Statement: Hungary has resumed the operation of its embassy in Syria, according to Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has officially supported the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, stating that it is an important operation to strengthen Kyiv's position before future negotiations with Moscow.
Reports from "Novinite" suggest that Putin may consider allowing Ukraine to join NATO under certain conditions, including the withdrawal of US military bases from Eastern Europe and the partial lifting of economic sanctions against Russia.
Trump has stated that Biden is to blame for the conflict in Ukraine, claiming that the previous administration's incompetence provoked the conflict. He also mentioned that Russia would not have attacked Ukraine if he had been president.
Trump has expressed his intention to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America and criticized Mexico's migration policy.
Trump has indicated that he will not guarantee the security of Ukrainian citizens in the event of peace negotiations.

Other Significant Developments

Casualty Reports: Ukrainian forces report significant Russian casualties, while Russian sources claim even heavier Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region, reaching 48,000.
Troop Mobilization: Ukraine has reportedly mobilized 200,000 troops in 2024, falling short of the 500,000 called for by former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny.
A naval ship belonging to the Swedish Navy reportedly discovered the anchor of the Eagle S vessel, suspected of damaging a cable between Finland and Estonia in the Gulf of Finland.
The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reportedly engaging Russian forces on the outskirts of Kharkiv.
Former Speaker of the Ukrainian Air Force, Yuriy Ignat, stated that the American F-16 fighters transferred to Kyiv are not capable of effectively countering Russian combat aircraft, as they are already outdated.
The Ukrainian Parliament is considering a bill on the deployment of Ukrainian Armed Forces to other states.
Ukrainian MP Shevchenko will remain under arrest until March 7, 2025, without the right to post bail, following a decision by the Pechersk Court.
Oil spills have reached the city of Yevpatoria in western Crimea.
A man and a woman have confessed in a Mannheim court to the murder of Ukrainian refugees in Germany, reportedly to kidnap a newborn baby.
The Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers has registered a bill on affordable housing in Ukraine, regulating rental issues, introducing a 10-year ban on the sale of certain categories, and establishing a unified database of affordable housing.
More than 100 Russian soldiers from occupied Crimea have been taken prisoner by Ukrainian forces.
Six families received keys to new homes in Kryvyi Rih as part of a program to support foster families. Four of these families came from occupied and destroyed settlements in the Kherson region.
Video footage shows the destruction of enemy defenses by the 35th Brigade of the "Center" group near Pokrovsk.
Video footage shows a Ukrainian FPV drone targeting a Russian Ka-52 helicopter, though the attempt was unsuccessful.
Video footage shows a Ukrainian FPV drone targeting a Russian Ka-52 helicopter.
Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration, Serhiy Lysak, held a meeting with community leaders in Kryvyi Rih to discuss pressing issues, including road repairs, water supply, tariffs, and the construction of modular safe spaces for kindergartens and schools.
Ukraine has received the first batch of Lynx infantry fighting vehicles from Rheinmetall. The vehicles are currently being tested by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Environmental Concerns: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea have reached the coasts of Crimea, causing the deaths of dolphins.
Serbia's Energy Supply: Serbia is seeking new oil and gas supply routes due to the threat of US sanctions.
Czech Republic Military Aid: The Czech Republic issued 40 permits for Czech citizens to fight for Ukraine in the past year but rejected nearly twice as many applications.
Satellite Image Analysis: The satellite image reveals a high-value area with a strategically important palace/complex, potential avenues of approach via roads, a key naval access point with the marina, and possible landing zones on the beaches and open field.
Ukrainian Naval Update: The Ukrainian Navy reports that one enemy warship, a "Kalibr" missile carrier, is present in the Black Sea, but no missile firings are reported. In the Sea of Azov, no enemy warships or missile carriers are present. In the Mediterranean Sea, seven enemy warships, including two "Kalibr" missile carriers, are present, with 22 missile firings reported.
Russian Military Claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have repelled a Ukrainian attack in the Kursk region, destroying 11 Ukrainian drones. Video evidence also shows the destruction of another Ukrainian tank in the Kursk region. A Russian Su-34 also struck Ukrainian infantry and equipment at a stronghold in the Kursk region.
Ukrainian Military App: The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is developing a military ID within the "Army+" app.
Fire in Kirov Oblast: A criminal case has been opened following a fire in Kirov Oblast that resulted in multiple fatalities.
Internal Russian Political Developments: A scandal has emerged involving Russian deputies Fedorov and Matveychev, who reportedly criticized those fighting against illegal migration, labeling them as agents of British intelligence. This has sparked controversy and condemnation from various figures, including political analyst Sergei Markov. The situation has led to internal political tensions within Russia, with expectations of a response from the leadership of the State Duma.
Confiscation of Assets: Russian authorities have begun the confiscation of assets belonging to former minister Abyzov, amounting to nearly 24 billion rubles, as indicated by court documents.
Two people were injured: Two people were injured after a drone attack on the village of Rzhevka in the Belgorod region. One man suffered shrapnel wounds to the face, chest and arm, and the second suffered a shrapnel wound to the head, barotrauma and contusion.
Poet and songwriter killed: Russian poet and songwriter Oleg Gegelsky was killed in the special operation zone at the age of 60. He was reportedly on a mission, traveling in a car through a "gray zone," when he came under artillery fire.
South Korean President's Arrest Warrant: The Anti-Corruption Investigation Department for Senior Officials is reportedly transferring an arrest warrant application for South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol to the police in connection with a mutiny case.
Former Deputy Head of Kuban Emergency Situations Ministry Cooperates with Investigation: Former Deputy Head of the Kuban Main Directorate of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, Simonenko, is reportedly cooperating with the investigation and providing detailed testimony.
Increased Air Ticket Purchases: Russians have been increasingly purchasing air tickets to Japan, China, Vietnam, and South Korea in 2024.
Ukrainian Soldiers Trained in Britain: A group of Ukrainian soldiers from the 117th Brigade, trained in Britain under a program approved by Boris Johnson, are reportedly preparing to enter the battle on the Pokrovsk direction.
Russian Drone Operators Strike Ukrainian Vehicles: Russian FPV drone operators from the "Aida" group reportedly hit two Ukrainian armored fighting vehicles.
China's Satellite Technology: China claims a major breakthrough in laser communication "satellite-to-ground," potentially surpassing Elon Musk's Starlink. This achievement could serve as the foundation for future technologies like 6G, next-generation satellite positioning systems, and ultra-high-resolution remote sensing.
Russian Military Operations in Kursk Region: Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov in the Kursk region. They also destroyed Ukrainian firing points with a 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar. In Chasiv Yar, Ivanovo paratroopers repelled a Ukrainian drone attack, suppressing four Baba Yaga drones with small arms fire. In the Kursk region, Primorsky paratroopers destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone.
Historical Commemoration: January 6, 1813, marked the end of the Patriotic War, with Emperor Alexander I issuing a manifesto and ordering the construction of the Cathedral of Christ the Savior in Moscow. The event was celebrated annually on Christmas Day until the October Revolution. The "Great Army" of Napoleon suffered significant losses, with over 550,000 killed, wounded, or captured. The Patriotic War of 1812 had a profound impact on Russia's internal development and demonstrated the heroism and patriotism of the Russian people.
Video Analysis of Russian Tank Operations: The video shows a Russian T-80 tank crew preparing for an offensive operation in a snowy, wooded environment. The emphasis on camouflage and the tank's movement through challenging terrain suggest a strategy of concealment and surprise. The loading of ammunition and the firing of the tank's weapon indicate its role as a key asset in close-range or ambush combat situations.
Canadian Prime Minister's Potential Resignation: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may announce his resignation as leader of the Liberal Party due to internal party pressure and low public support. The announcement is expected before a key national meeting on January 8. It is unclear whether he will resign immediately or remain as Prime Minister until a new leader is chosen.
Russian strikes in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: During the night, Russian forces attacked the Nikopol region five times using artillery and a kamikaze drone. The attacks targeted Nikopol, Pokrovsk, and Marhanets communities. There were no reported casualties. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down five drones during the evening and night.
Drone Warfare: A video shows the elimination of a group of Russian soldiers using FPV drones by the 110th Mechanized Brigade.
Kursk Region Fighting: Geolocation of battles in the Kursk region has been established, indicating the areas where Ukrainian forces attacked.
Drone Activity in Sumy Oblast: Ukrainian air defense forces reportedly shot down 12 Shahed drones over Sumy Oblast during the night.
Russian Advances: According to DeepState, Russian forces have made advances in Toretsk, Zelene, Petropavlivka, near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, and Pishchane.
Strategic Importance of Pokrovsk: The ISW considers the encirclement of Pokrovsk as one of Russia's key operational goals. Russian troops have been active east of Pokrovsk, potentially aiming to advance through fields and small settlements.
Air Strikes: The 11th Guards Air Assault Army carried out air strikes on Ukrainian positions near Konstantinopol.
Russian aviation conducted airstrikes in multiple locations, indicating continued air superiority and pressure on Ukrainian forces.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast Attacks: Russian forces carried out 542 strikes on 12 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, using aviation, drones, MLRS, and artillery.
Artillery and Drone Attacks in Kharkiv Oblast: Russian forces continued their attacks on Kharkiv Oblast, using both artillery and drones. Several locations were targeted, including Kharkiv, Zolochiv,
Clashes: Clashes were reported along multiple axes, indicating ongoing fighting across a broad front. At the Kherson axis, Ukrainian forces have repelled 1 Russian army assault. In the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces have repelled 47 Russian army assaults.
During storms, Russia lost almost half of the barriers made of barges near the Crimean Bridge and is not trying to restore them.
According to local channels, 18 barges remain near the bridge, while on November 8, 2024, 34 interconnected vessels were recorded on both sides of the navigable channel in the Kerch Strait.
Video evidence shows a Russian soldier filming the aftermath of a Ukrainian FPV drone strike on a Russian vehicle in the Donetsk region, indicating casualties among the Russian assault group. This provides further evidence of the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare.
More than 715 square kilometers of the Kerch Strait water area have been surveyed by the Ministry of Emergency Situations after the incident with tankers. This indicates a potential environmental or security incident in the area.
Over 86,000 tons of contaminated soil have been collected on the coastline by the Ministry of Emergency Situations, municipal representatives, and volunteers.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that all 8 ATACMS missiles used for strikes on Russia were shot down by S-400 and "Pantsir-SM" air defense systems.
Russian State Secretary Blinken reported that US intelligence had data that Putin was considering a nuclear strike scenario, but China likely restrained him.
Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself.
In Yakutia, heating has been restored to a village where there had been no heat for three days in -40°C weather. Seven out of eight boilers have been repaired in the Zhigansky boiler house.
In Melitopol and Tokmak, a missile alert has been issued.
A video from "Colonelcassad" details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye. The liberation of these settlements may be announced this week. There is also a battle for Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, with the enemy continuing to send reserves despite heavy losses.
A video from "Alex Parker Returns" discusses the potential renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America and criticizes Mexico's migration policy.
A video from "Старше Эдды" describes the destruction of an enemy tank by drones.
A video from "Alex Parker Returns" discusses corruption in Russia.
A video from "ОТУ "Харків"" shows Ukrainian soldiers undergoing tank training.
A message from "Дневник Десантника" reports a missile threat in Melitopol and Tokmak.
A message from "Рыбарь" discusses information from former Syrian intelligence officials regarding the situation in Syria in late November. It details a meeting between Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin in Moscow, where Assad requested security for Iranian air supplies. The message also mentions the interception of an Iranian military aircraft by Israeli fighters and Assad's refusal to meet with Erdogan.
A message from "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА Z" includes a prayer to Saint Nicholas the Wonderworker.
A series of photos from "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" shows the opening of a new rehabilitation center in Kryvyi Rih, equipped with modern technology and staffed by multidisciplinary teams.
A video from "Colonelcassad" shows a soldier thanking donors for providing drones.
A photo and message from "Alex Parker Returns" reports that Russian forces have advanced in Makhnovka and entered Zamostye, with Sudzha nearby.
A message from "ТАСС" reports that Trump has acknowledged that the Biden administration made many mistakes in negotiations regarding Ukraine's potential NATO membership, as Russia was against it.
A video from "РБК-Україна" shows Ukrainian border guards striking a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk.
A message from "НгП раZVедка" claims that a peace agreement on Ukraine may be reached by Easter, but it will be a difficult decision for Ukraine.
A photo and message from "ASTRA" reports that Trump has stated that Biden is responsible for the conflict in Ukraine and that Russia would not have attacked if he had been president. Trump also evaded a question about ensuring the safety of Ukrainian citizens during peace negotiations.
A photo and message from "Оперативний ЗСУ" promotes a Telegram channel of a young military analyst.
A photo and message from "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports that over 6,000 children from the temporarily occupied territories have been subjected to Russian propaganda and militarization in "recreation camps."
A photo and message from "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" reports that Trump intends to seize strategic straits from neighboring countries, including renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, regaining control of the Panama Canal, and taking Greenland from Denmark.
A video and photos from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" show a Ukrainian FPV drone attempting to strike a Russian Ka-52 helicopter.
A video from "Оперативний ЗСУ" shows an interview with a one-eyed contract soldier from the 810th Marine Brigade who claims he was forced to sign a contract and was threatened with being "zeroed out."
A video from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" shows a Ukrainian drone attempting to strike a Russian Ka-52 helicopter.
A photo and message from "РБК-Україна" reports that Trump believes Russia attacked Ukraine after witnessing the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Photos and messages from "ОТУ "Харків"" commemorate Yuriy Lypa, a Ukrainian ideologue, writer, and doctor.
A video from "Colonelcassad" shows the work of FPV drone crews from the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment in the Berdin area, Kursk region.

Updated Situation Analysis

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges, with the situation in Kurakhove and Toretsk being particularly critical. The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has resulted in heavy losses, estimated at 48,000 casualties, although it continues. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with both sides employing drones extensively. The geopolitical landscape is marked by uncertainty, with potential shifts in the approach to the conflict and ongoing international support for Ukraine.

The new messages confirm the continued intensity of fighting along the front lines, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The Ukrainian General Staff's report highlights the numerous clashes and the ongoing efforts by Ukrainian forces to repel Russian attacks. The use of drones by both sides remains a significant aspect of the conflict. The geopolitical situation remains complex, with ongoing discussions about potential negotiations and the role of international actors. The discovery of the anchor of the Eagle S vessel adds a new element to the situation, potentially linking the vessel to the damage of the cable between Finland and Estonia. The Ukrainian strike on the Russian command post in the Kursk region and the report of Ukrainian soldiers abandoning their wounded comrades further highlight the brutality and complexity of the conflict. The additional reports regarding potential peace negotiations, troop movements, and international political developments add further layers to the already complex situation in Ukraine. The conflicting reports about the situation in the Kursk region and the potential for further escalation underscore the need for careful monitoring and analysis. The capture of over 100 Russian soldiers from Crimea by Ukrainian forces, along with the provision of new homes to families in Kryvyi Rih, demonstrates Ukraine's ongoing efforts to address both the military and social aspects of the conflict. The reported meeting between community leaders in Kryvyi Rih indicates a focus on addressing local issues, including infrastructure and support for veterans. The acknowledgment of desertion from the "Anna Kyivska" brigade by the Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces is a significant development, potentially impacting morale and operational effectiveness. The delivery of the first batch of Lynx infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine marks a potential enhancement of Ukraine's military capabilities.

The new messages add further details to the ongoing military operations and the broader context of the conflict. The reported advances by Russian forces in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye in the **

Situation Report