Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine

As of January 7, 2025, 16:10:43 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Russian forces maintain offensive operations, particularly around Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk in the Donetsk region, where the situation is critical for Ukrainian forces. In Kurakhove, Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city, and in Toretsk, less than 15% remains under Ukrainian control. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with both sides utilizing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 128 combat clashes since the beginning of the day, with the enemy concentrating efforts on the Pokrovsk, Kurakhiv, and Kursk directions. Russian artillery shelling is reported in border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv regions. The geopolitical landscape is marked by uncertainty, with potential shifts in the approach to the conflict and ongoing international support for Ukraine.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces have captured approximately 80% of Kurakhove, consolidating positions and threatening the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. Ukrainian forces reportedly hold the western part of Kurakhove, including a thermal power plant.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk is under Ukrainian control, with Russian forces advancing and controlling the southern part.
Russian Advances: Russian forces are making gains near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. They are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Street fighting continues in Toretsk.
Chasiv Yar: Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and an advance of up to 1.5 km.
New: On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks near Vasyukovka, Bondarnoye, Chasov Yar, and Stupochki, with five clashes ongoing.
New: On the Toretsk direction, three Russian attacks were reported near Toretsk, with one ongoing.
New: On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes of varying intensity, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near Tarasovka, Vodyanoye Vtoroye, Elizavetovka, Promin, Lysovka, Sukhoi Yar, Zelenoye, Novy Trud, and Pokrovsk. Five clashes are ongoing.
New: On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near Sribnoye, Andreevka, Kurakhovo, and ** Dachnoye**, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.

Kursk Region

Major Ukrainian Offensive and Losses: A major Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has resulted in severe Ukrainian losses, estimated at 48,000 casualties.
Russian Counterattack: Russian forces report repelling a Ukrainian counterattack near Berdin and claim to have destroyed multiple Ukrainian vehicles, including a British Challenger tank.
Continued Fighting: Fighting continues near Berdin and Malaya Loknya, with Russian advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka. Leonidovo has been taken under Russian control.
Ukrainian Retreat: Approximately 40 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly retreated from Berdin to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Casualties: British intelligence reports that Russian losses in December 2024 reached a new monthly maximum, with 48,670 soldiers killed or wounded. A record single-day loss of 2,200 Russian troops was reported on December 19.
New: A video from "Colonelcassad" shows the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar crew by a Russian FPV drone in the Kursk border area.
New: A video from "Операция Z" reportedly shows the destruction of NATO and Ukrainian equipment, including tanks and US-made Stryker armored personnel carriers, during an attempted offensive in the Kursk region.
New: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian forces carried out a precision strike on a Russian command post in the Kursk region.
New: A video from "Архангел спецназа Z" shows the destruction of two Ukrainian drones by the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment using FPV drones in the Kursk region.
New: Ukrainian forces struck the command post of the Russian 810th Separate Marine Brigade in the Kursk region. The high-precision strike was carried out in the area of the settlement of Bila.
New: Video from "Kotsnews" shows Ukrainian soldiers throwing two wounded soldiers out of evacuation vehicles in the Kursk area.
New: On the Kursk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled 27 attacks, with the enemy also conducting six airstrikes with 17 KABs and 146 artillery shellings, including six from multiple rocket launchers.
New: A video from WarGonzo shows abandoned Ukrainian equipment burning on the Kursk front.
New: A wounded Russian soldier from the Bolshoye Soldatskoye area in the Kursk region recorded a farewell message, believing evacuation was impossible, but was rescued by the 810th brigade.
New: The "Archangel of Special Forces Z" reported that the situation in the Kursk region is stable, with enemy infantry attempting to gain positions in nearby forests and settlements. The enemy reportedly suffered losses of two vehicles and about 30 personnel during night operations near Berdin, supported by the 272nd Regiment and Akhmat special forces. Fighting continues in the direction of Russkoye Porechnoye.

Luhansk Region

Russian Capture of Ivanivka and Nadezhda: Russian forces have captured Ivanivka near Terny and Nadezhda, marking a significant advance.
New: On the Liman direction, Russian attacks increased to nine, with ongoing clashes near Novosergievka, Nadezhda, Pervomaiskoye, Cherneshchyna, Makiivka, Zarechnoye, Ivanovka, and Terny.

Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare is a dominant feature of the conflict. Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets. FPV drones are being used extensively, particularly by Russian forces.
New: FPV drone team of Sever Group of Forces reportedly wipes out AFU buggy in Kharkiv region. AFU troops used this buggy to rotate personnel. Russian drone operators destroyed the enemy's vehicle by a precise strike.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
Missile Attacks: Reports indicate the use of high-speed missiles, potentially KN-23 type, targeting Chernihiv.
New Drone Activity:
- Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west.
- Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west.
- Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west.
- Sumy Oblast: Two drones are heading towards Romny, and one towards Lypova Dolyna.
- Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest.
- Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are reported to be moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is reported to be in the Kryvyi Rih district, and another is flying over Dolynska.
- Poltava Oblast: One drone is reported to be circling south of Poltava.
- Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course.
New: A video from "Операция Z" shows the 30th Regiment destroying Ukrainian tanks during an attempted offensive in the Kursk region.
New: A video from Colonelcassad shows an unsuccessful attempt by a Ukrainian FPV drone to hit a Russian Ka-52 helicopter.

Geopolitical Developments

Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky has indicated a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and expressed openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest that German Chancellor Scholz may meet with Russian President Putin before February 23.
US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, but the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th.
New: Mark Zuckerberg reportedly criticized the censorship of American Big Tech on social media, despite being one of the promoters of total censorship.
New: Patriarch Kirill, in an interview with TASS, claimed that Western political forces fear Russia's spiritual dominance.
New: Sky News reports that a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia might be possible by Easter, with the new Trump administration potentially pushing for a quick resolution.
New: The Guardian reports that Donald Trump Jr. has arrived in Greenland, following his father's statements about gaining control over the territory, although Trump Jr. claims his visit is purely for tourism.
New: TASS reports that Donald Trump has praised the reception of his delegation in Greenland and reiterated the need for a deal to incorporate the Danish autonomy into the USA.

Other Significant Developments

Casualty Reports: Ukrainian forces report significant Russian casualties, while Russian sources claim even heavier Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region, reaching 48,000.
Troop Mobilization: Ukraine has reportedly mobilized 200,000 troops in 2024, falling short of the 500,000 called for by former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny.
New: A naval ship belonging to the Swedish Navy reportedly discovered the anchor of the Eagle S vessel, suspected of damaging a cable between Finland and Estonia in the Gulf of Finland.
New: The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reportedly engaging Russian forces on the outskirts of Kharkiv.
New: Former Speaker of the Ukrainian Air Force, Yuriy Ignat, stated that the American F-16 fighters transferred to Kyiv are not capable of effectively countering Russian combat aircraft, as they are already outdated.
New: The Ukrainian Parliament is considering a bill on the deployment of Ukrainian Armed Forces to other states.
New: Ukrainian MP Shevchenko will remain under arrest until March 7, 2025, without the right to post bail, following a decision by the Pechersk Court.
New: Oil spills have reached the city of Yevpatoria in western Crimea.
New: A man and a woman have confessed in a Mannheim court to the murder of Ukrainian refugees in Germany, reportedly to kidnap a newborn baby.
New: The Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers has registered a bill on affordable housing in Ukraine, regulating rental issues, introducing a 10-year ban on the sale of certain categories, and establishing a unified database of affordable housing.

Updated Situation Analysis

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges, with the situation in Kurakhove and Toretsk being particularly critical. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with both sides employing drones extensively. The geopolitical landscape is marked by uncertainty, with potential shifts in the approach to the conflict and ongoing international support for Ukraine.

The new messages confirm the continued intensity of fighting along the front lines, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The Ukrainian General Staff's report highlights the numerous clashes and the ongoing efforts by Ukrainian forces to repel Russian attacks. The use of drones by both sides remains a significant aspect of the conflict. The geopolitical situation remains complex, with ongoing discussions about potential negotiations and the role of international actors. The discovery of the anchor of the Eagle S vessel adds a new element to the situation, potentially linking the vessel to the damage of the cable between Finland and Estonia. The Ukrainian strike on the Russian command post in the Kursk region and the report of Ukrainian soldiers abandoning their wounded comrades further highlight the brutality and complexity of the conflict. The additional reports regarding potential peace negotiations, troop movements, and international political developments add further layers to the already complex situation in Ukraine. The conflicting reports about the situation in the Kursk region and the potential for further escalation underscore the need for careful monitoring and analysis.

Situation Report