Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine

As of January 7, 2025, 15:33 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and fluid, with intense fighting reported across multiple fronts. Russian forces continue their offensive operations, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions, while Ukrainian forces are engaged in defensive actions and localized counterattacks. The situation in Kurakhove and Toretsk in the Donetsk region is particularly critical, with Russian forces making significant gains. Drone warfare continues to be a central element of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks. The geopolitical landscape remains complex, with potential shifts in international support and ongoing discussions about potential negotiations.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces have captured approximately 80% of Kurakhove, consolidating their positions and posing a direct threat to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. Ukrainian forces are reportedly holding the western part of Kurakhove, including a thermal power plant, but the situation is difficult due to the destruction of buildings. Ukrainian forces are conducting drone strikes in the Pokrovsk direction, targeting a Russian command post and a Starlink station.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, with less than 15% of the city under Ukrainian control. Russian forces are advancing, controlling the southern part and reportedly conducting clean-up operations. A video depicts Ukrainian special forces from the "Omega" unit clearing a heavily damaged structure in Toretsk.
Russian Advances: Russian forces are making gains near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. They are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka. Russian forces are approaching the western and northwestern outskirts of Dzerzhynsk. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting and destroying Russian military equipment and personnel near Novoelizavetivka, south of Pokrovsk.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Street fighting continues in Toretsk. Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian military equipment and personnel, with a mass drone attack reported in the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. Ukrainian forces report that a Russian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka was destroyed by drone operators. A video from the 2nd Mountain Assault Battalion showcases the destruction of a Russian field ammunition depot in the Zaporizhzhia direction using drones.
Chasiv Yar: Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and an advance of up to 1.5 km. Ukrainian forces, specifically the "RAROG" unit of the 24th Mechanized Brigade, reported destroying four T-62 tanks and three BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles near Chasiv Yar.

Kursk Region

Major Ukrainian Offensive and Losses: A major Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has resulted in severe Ukrainian losses, estimated at 48,000 casualties. Russian forces have successfully repelled these attacks, inflicting significant damage on Ukrainian equipment.
Russian Counterattack: Russian forces report repelling a Ukrainian counterattack near Berdin and claim to have destroyed multiple Ukrainian vehicles, including a British Challenger tank. They are engaged in battles near Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Kruglenkoye, with ongoing assaults towards Viktorovka.
Continued Fighting: Fighting continues near Berdin and Malaya Loknya, with Russian advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka. Russian paratroopers have reportedly pushed Ukrainian forces out of Novosotnitskoe and prevented them from approaching Berdino. Leonidovo has been taken under Russian control. Assault operations are ongoing in Alexandria and in the direction of Nikolsky. Russian forces claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian S-300 air defense system near Malaya Loknya. Russian forces claim to have captured a US Army M577 command post vehicle in the Kursk region, with markings indicating it belonged to the 2nd Battalion, 69th Armor Regiment.
Ukrainian Retreat: Approximately 40 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly retreated from Berdin to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Russian forces have liberated Russkoye Porechnoye and initiated an assault on Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Casualties: British intelligence reports that Russian losses in December 2024 reached a new monthly maximum, with 48,670 soldiers killed or wounded. A record single-day loss of 2,200 Russian troops was reported on December 19. A video from "Военкор Котенок" depicts the bodies of numerous Ukrainian soldiers on the outskirts of the village of Berdin in the Kursk region. The video includes close-ups of the deceased soldiers' faces and tattoos, as well as their gear and a Ukrainian flag pin.

Luhansk Region

Russian Capture of Ivanivka and Nadezhda: Russian forces have captured Ivanivka near Terny and Nadezhda, marking a significant advance. They are also attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove. Intense fighting is reported in the area, with Novoyehorivka partially under Russian control.
Repelled Infiltrations: Russian forces have repelled over 30 attempts by Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries to penetrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.

Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare is a dominant feature of the conflict. Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets, including a command post near the Toretsk mine and a Russian "Buk-M1" anti-aircraft missile system. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. FPV drones are being used extensively, particularly by Russian forces. Ukrainian forces are finalizing tests on fiber-optic guided FPV drones, designed to counter Russian electronic warfare systems.
Russian Drone Warfare: A video analyzed by "Воин DV" showcases Russian propaganda featuring a "Santa" figure delivering a message alongside a demonstration of weaponized drone technology, highlighting the use of drones in precise attacks captured with thermal imaging.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of drone activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Air raid alerts have been lifted in Zaporizhzhia oblast. Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down a Ukrainian missile over Kursk Oblast.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts are active in Kyiv and several other regions. An air alarm was announced in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov region, with a column of smoke seen rising near military-technical property warehouses.
Missile Attacks: Reports indicate the use of high-speed missiles, potentially KN-23 type, targeting Chernihiv. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have carried out multiple strikes with high-precision weapons and UAVs, targeting Ukrainian military-industrial complex facilities, airfields, arsenals, and other targets. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) in the direction of Kharkiv and Donetsk. A missile threat is reported for the Rostov and Krasnodar regions.
New Drone Activity:
- Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west.
- Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west.
- Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west.
- Sumy Oblast: Two drones are heading towards Romny, and one towards Lypova Dolyna.
- Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest.
- Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are reported to be moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is reported to be in the Kryvyi Rih district, and another is flying over Dolynska.
- Poltava Oblast: One drone is reported to be circling south of Poltava.
- Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course.
New: A video from "Colonelcassad" shows the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar crew by a Russian FPV drone in the Kursk border area.
New: A video from "Операция Z" reportedly shows the destruction of NATO and Ukrainian equipment, including tanks and US-made Stryker armored personnel carriers, during an attempted offensive in the Kursk region.
New: FPV drone team of Sever Group of Forces reportedly wipes out AFU buggy in Kharkiv region. AFU troops used this buggy to rotate personnel. Russian drone operators destroyed the enemy's vehicle by a precise strike.

Geopolitical Developments

Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky has indicated a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and expressed openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest that German Chancellor Scholz may meet with Russian President Putin before February 23. This meeting could have significant implications for Ukraine, potentially leading to a suspension of the Paris Charter for 10-20 years.
US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, but the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th.
Macron's Statement: Macron has called on Ukrainians to engage in "realistic discussions" on territorial issues, suggesting that a quick and easy solution in Ukraine is unlikely. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze responded to Macron's statement about Russia's alleged interference in Georgia's affairs, calling Macron's words a lie and suggesting that he should focus on the situation in Ukraine instead.
Moldova and Ukraine: Media outlets from Moldova and Ukraine are reportedly attempting to undermine Transnistria's trust in Russia, according to the Russian embassy. The Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned a representative of the Russian embassy following statements about the energy crisis in Transnistria.
BRICS: The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced Indonesia's accession to BRICS as a full member.
Trudeau's Resignation: Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation as Prime Minister of Canada and leader of the Liberal Party, effective after his successor is chosen. The new Prime Minister of Canada will likely be announced in February-March 2025, according to an expert cited by RBC-Ukraine.
Death of Jean-Marie Le Pen: The founder of the French far-right party "National Front", Jean-Marie Le Pen, has died at the age of 96.
Armenia-EU Relations: A report by "Rybar" analyzes the political crisis in Armenia, highlighting the public's disillusionment with Prime Minister Pashinyan's government and the complex relationship between Armenia, the EU, and Russia.
Israel-Turkey Relations: The Jerusalem Post reports that an Israeli government committee warns of a potential war with Turkey, citing Ankara's ambition to restore its Ottoman-era influence.

Other Significant Developments

Casualty Reports: Ukrainian forces report significant Russian casualties, while Russian sources claim even heavier Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region, reaching 48,000.
Troop Mobilization: Ukraine has reportedly mobilized 200,000 troops in 2024, falling short of the 500,000 called for by former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny.
Environmental Concerns: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea have reached the coasts of Crimea, causing the deaths of dolphins.
Serbia's Energy Supply: Serbia is seeking new oil and gas supply routes due to the threat of US sanctions.
Czech Republic Military Aid: The Czech Republic issued 40 permits for Czech citizens to fight for Ukraine in the past year but rejected nearly twice as many applications.
Ukrainian Naval Update: The Ukrainian Navy reports that one enemy warship, a "Kalibr" missile carrier, is present in the Black Sea, but no missile firings are reported. In the Sea of Azov, no enemy warships or missile carriers are present.
Chechnya: Chechen bots reportedly wrote over 60 million comments in a year to create the appearance of support for local authorities. Ramzan Kadyrov congratulated Orthodox Christians on Christmas, emphasizing the peaceful coexistence of different religious groups in Russia.
Syria: There are reports of US military personnel starting the construction of a military base in Kobani (Ayn al-Arab) in northern Syria.
Ust-Luga Terminal Attack: New details have emerged about the attack on the Ust-Luga terminal, carried out by SBU drones. The drones reportedly traveled over 900 km and successfully hit their target, causing significant damage to gas condensate tanks.
Explosion in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky: An air raid alert was declared in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov region, followed by a column of smoke rising near military-technical property warehouses.
Capture of US Army M577: Russian forces claim to have captured a US Army M577 command post vehicle in the Kursk region, with markings indicating it belonged to the 2nd Battalion, 69th Armor Regiment.
Frontline Christmas in Donetsk People's Republic: A video report highlights the celebration of Orthodox Christmas on the front lines in the DPR, with Russian military personnel receiving gifts and medical personnel being recognized for their service.
Reconstruction Efforts in Avdiivka: A video shows ongoing reconstruction efforts in Avdiivka, with a focus on restoring normalcy and improving living conditions for residents.
Internal Russian Military Issues: A video message from a Russian soldier, Sergei Pirkin, alleges threats from his commanders and misconduct within his unit (military unit 40318).
Alleged Corruption in Odesa Military Unit: Reports indicate that the commander of a military unit in Odesa has been detained for allegedly extorting bribes from soldiers, demanding 30% of their combat bonuses.
Infrastructure Upgrades in Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Reconstruction of a central water pipeline is underway in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which will temporarily restrict water supply to five communities.
Depletion of European Gas Reserves: Bloomberg reports that European gas storage facilities are depleting at the fastest rate since 2018, with stocks at about 70% compared to 86% last year. The EU has reportedly made record purchases of Russian LNG, exceeding the volumes previously transported through Ukraine.
Investigation into Kryvyi Rih Attacks: The Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine announced that a Russian colonel who organized missile strikes on Kryvyi Rih on June 13, 2023, has been notified of suspicion of war crimes.
Military Training in Finland: Reports indicate that a joint military exercise involving special forces from Finland, the US, Canada, the UK, and France is taking place in northern Finland, near the Russian border.
Turkish Missile Development: A video features Turkish President Erdogan discussing Turkey's focus on developing missiles with ranges exceeding 800 and 2,000 kilometers.
Healthcare Improvements in Kharkiv: The head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration, Oleh Syniehubov, announced plans for a comprehensive reconstruction of the Kharkiv Regional Clinical Hospital, including the construction of an underground hospital called "Ark."
North Korean Artillery in Russia: A video reportedly shows a North Korean 170mm self-propelled artillery "

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile. Russian forces are maintaining their offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in holding their positions, with the situation in Kurakhove and Toretsk being particularly critical. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with both sides employing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The geopolitical landscape is marked by uncertainty, with potential shifts in the approach to the conflict and ongoing international support for Ukraine.

The new messages add the following updates:

The Ukrainian General Staff reports 128 combat clashes on the front lines since the beginning of the day, with the enemy concentrating its efforts on the Pokrovsk, Kurakhiv, and Kursk directions.
Russian artillery shelling is reported in border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv regions.
In the Kharkiv direction, Ukrainian forces repelled three enemy attacks near Tikhogo, with one clash ongoing.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance three times near Golubovka and Petropavlovka.
On the Liman direction, Russian attacks increased to nine, with ongoing clashes near Novosergievka, Nadezhda, Pervomaiskoye, Cherneshchyna, Makiivka, Zarechnoye, Ivanovka, and Terny.
On the Seversk direction, five Russian attacks were reported near Belogorovka, with one ongoing.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks near Vasyukovka, Bondarnoye, Chasov Yar, and Stupochki, with five clashes ongoing.
On the Toretsk direction, three Russian attacks were reported near Toretsk, with one ongoing.
On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes of varying intensity, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near Tarasovka, Vodyanoye Vtoroye, Elizavetovka, Promin, Lysovka, Sukhoi Yar, Zelenoye, Novy Trud, and Pokrovsk. Five clashes are ongoing.
On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near Sribnoye, Andreevka, Kurakhovo, and ** Dachnoye**, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
On the Vremivsk direction, Russian forces attacked 14 times near Yantarnoye, Konstantinopolskoye, Novoselka, and Privolnoye, with four clashes ongoing.
On the Pridneprovsk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled two enemy attacks.
On the Kursk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled 27 attacks, with the enemy also conducting six airstrikes with 17 KABs and 146 artillery shellings, including six from multiple rocket launchers.
No active enemy actions were reported in the Gulyaypol and Orekhov directions.
A naval ship belonging to the Swedish Navy reportedly discovered the anchor of the Eagle S vessel, suspected of damaging a cable between Finland and Estonia in the Gulf of Finland.
Mark Zuckerberg reportedly criticized the censorship of American Big Tech on social media, despite being one of the promoters of total censorship.
The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian forces carried out a precision strike on a Russian command post in the Kursk region.
Patriarch Kirill, in an interview with TASS, claimed that Western political forces fear Russia's spiritual dominance.
A video from "Архангел спецназа Z" shows the destruction of two Ukrainian drones by the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment using FPV drones in the Kursk region.
The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reportedly engaging Russian forces on the outskirts of Kharkiv.
Russian Ministry of Defense: FPV drone team of Sever Group of Forces wipes out AFU buggy in Kharkiv region. AFU troops used this buggy to rotate personnel. Russian drone operators destroyed the enemy's vehicle by a precise strike.
Ukrainian forces struck the command post of the Russian 810th Separate Marine Brigade in the Kursk region. The high-precision strike was carried out in the area of the settlement of Bila.
Former Speaker of the Ukrainian Air Force, Yuriy Ignat, stated that the American F-16 fighters transferred to Kyiv are not capable of effectively countering Russian combat aircraft, as they are already outdated.
Video from "Kotsnews" shows Ukrainian soldiers throwing two wounded soldiers out of evacuation vehicles in the Kursk area.

These new messages confirm the continued intensity of fighting along the front lines, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The Ukrainian General Staff's report highlights the numerous clashes and the ongoing efforts by Ukrainian forces to repel Russian attacks. The use of drones by both sides remains a significant aspect of the conflict, with reports of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian targets and Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian positions. The geopolitical situation remains complex, with ongoing discussions about potential negotiations and the role of international actors. The discovery of the anchor of the Eagle S vessel adds a new element to the situation, potentially linking the vessel to the damage of the cable between Finland and Estonia. The Ukrainian strike on the Russian command post in the Kursk region and the report of Ukrainian soldiers abandoning their wounded comrades further highlight the brutality and complexity of the conflict.

Situation Report