Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine

As of January 7, 2025, 12:33 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely precarious for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are achieving significant breakthroughs in the Donetsk region, notably with the seizure of Kurakhove and the dire circumstances in Toretsk, where Ukrainian control has dwindled to less than 15% of the city. Ukrainian forces are reportedly holding the western part of Kurakhove, including a thermal power plant, but the situation is difficult due to the destruction of buildings. The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has been effectively repelled by Russian forces, incurring staggering losses estimated as high as 48,000 casualties. Drone warfare continues to be a major component of the conflict, evidenced by extensive drone activity across multiple oblasts, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa. Ukrainian air defenses are actively intercepting Russian drones, and the Ukrainian Air Force is providing updates on their movements. The geopolitical situation is complex, with Zelensky's statements on NATO membership and potential negotiations, coupled with Macron's call for "realistic discussions," suggesting a potential shift in the approach to the conflict. Ongoing military aid from Western countries, such as the US and the Czech Republic, highlights the continued international support for Ukraine. However, the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine and Serbia's search for alternative energy supplies underscore the broader economic and geopolitical ramifications of the conflict. Environmental concerns in the Black Sea further complicate the situation.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces have captured Kurakhove, consolidating their positions and posing a direct threat to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. Ukrainian forces are reportedly holding the western part of Kurakhove, including a thermal power plant, but the situation is difficult due to the destruction of buildings.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, with less than 15% of the city under Ukrainian control. Russian forces are advancing, controlling the southern part and reportedly conducting clean-up operations. A video depicts Ukrainian special forces from the "Omega" unit clearing a heavily damaged structure in Toretsk, showcasing the complexities of urban warfare.
Russian Advances: Russian forces are making gains near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. They are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka. Russian forces are approaching the western and northwestern outskirts of Dzerzhynsk.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Street fighting continues in Toretsk. Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian military equipment and personnel, with a mass drone attack reported in the Pokrovsk direction.
Chasiv Yar: Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and an advance of up to 1.5 km.

Kursk Region

Major Ukrainian Offensive and Losses: A major Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has resulted in severe Ukrainian losses, estimated at 48,000 casualties. Russian forces have successfully repelled these attacks, inflicting significant damage on Ukrainian equipment.
Russian Counterattack: Russian forces report repelling a Ukrainian counterattack near Berdin and claim to have destroyed multiple Ukrainian vehicles, including a British Challenger tank. They are engaged in battles near Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Kruglenkoye, with ongoing assaults towards Viktorovka.
Continued Fighting: Fighting continues near Berdin and Malaya Loknya, with Russian advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka. Russian paratroopers have reportedly pushed Ukrainian forces out of Novosotnitskoe and prevented them from approaching Berdino. Leonidovo has been taken under Russian control. Assault operations are ongoing in Alexandria and in the direction of Nikolsky. Russian forces claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian S-300 air defense system near Malaya Loknya.
Ukrainian Retreat: Approximately 40 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly retreated from Berdin to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.

Luhansk Region

Russian Capture of Ivanivka: Russian forces have captured Ivanivka near Terny, marking a significant advance. They are also attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
Repelled Infiltrations: Russian forces have repelled over 30 attempts by Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries to penetrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.

Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare is a dominant feature of the conflict. Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets, including a command post near the Toretsk mine and a Russian "Buk-M1" anti-aircraft missile system. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. FPV drones are being used extensively, particularly by Russian forces.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of drone activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Air raid alerts have been lifted in Zaporizhzhia oblast.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts are active in Kyiv and several other regions. An air alarm was announced in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov region, with a column of smoke seen rising near military-technical property warehouses.
Missile Attacks: Reports indicate the use of high-speed missiles, potentially KN-23 type, targeting Chernihiv. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have carried out multiple strikes with high-precision weapons and UAVs, targeting Ukrainian military-industrial complex facilities, airfields, arsenals, and other targets. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) in the direction of Kharkiv and Donetsk. A missile threat is reported for the Rostov and Krasnodar regions.
New Drone Activity:
- Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west. One drone was reported east of Zviahel, moving southwest. Two drones are reported to be heading towards Malyn, and two more towards Narodychi.
- Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west. Three drones are reported to be circling in the north, with one approaching Boryspil and one having flown past Obukhiv towards Kyiv. 1 drone is approaching Boryspil. 2 drones are flying from Poltava region to Cherkasy. 1 drone is flying from Kirovohrad region to Vinnytsia. 3 drones are in Pryluky area, heading southwest. 3 new drones are flying through Shostka area, heading southwest.
- Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west. Two drones are reported to be circling north of Chernihiv, and one is reported to be southwest of Chernihiv with a southeast trajectory. One drone is also reported to be circling near Pryluky. Two drones are heading towards Varva. A drone is in the center of Chernihiv Oblast, heading east. 1 drone north of Nizhyn, moving towards Chernihiv. 1 drone is heading via Konotop towards Sumy. 1 drone near Pryluky, moving northwest. A drone was detected in the western part of Chernihiv region, moving west. Another drone was detected in the southeastern part of Chernihiv region, moving west.
- Sumy Oblast: Two drones are heading towards Romny, and one towards Lypova Dolyna. A drone is in the west of Zhytomyr Oblast, with a western/southwestern course. New drones were reported entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk.
- Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest.
- Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are reported to be moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Three drones are also reported to be near Lozova. A drone is in the west of Kharkiv Oblast, with a western course.
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is reported to be in the Kryvyi Rih district with a trajectory towards the Kherson region, and another is flying over Dolynska in a southerly direction. One drone is also reported to be circling over Samara. A drone is in the north of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a western course. A drone is approaching Kremenchuk. A reconnaissance drone was detected north of Pavlograd.
- Poltava Oblast: One drone is reported to be circling south of Poltava. One drone was reported west of Kremenchuk, constantly changing course. A drone is in the northeast of Poltava Oblast, with a southwesterly course. Three drones are heading towards Pyriatyn, and one towards Lubny.
- Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course. One drone is reported to be in the western part, moving south.
- Kyiv Oblast: Three drones are maneuvering near Chernobyl.
- Cherkasy Oblast: One drone is heading towards Chornobai.

Geopolitical Developments

Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky has indicated a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and expressed openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest that German Chancellor Scholz may meet with Russian President Putin before February 23.
US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, but the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th.
Macron's Statement: Macron has called on Ukrainians to engage in "realistic discussions" on territorial issues, suggesting that a quick and easy solution in Ukraine is unlikely. Macron also stated that Trump knows that the US has no chance of winning anything if Ukraine loses.
Moldova and Ukraine: Media outlets from Moldova and Ukraine are reportedly attempting to undermine Transnistria's trust in Russia, according to the Russian embassy. The Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned a representative of the Russian embassy following statements about the energy crisis in Transnistria.
BRICS: The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced Indonesia's accession to BRICS as a full member.
Trudeau's Resignation: Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation as Prime Minister of Canada and leader of the Liberal Party, effective after his successor is chosen.
Death of Jean-Marie Le Pen: The founder of the French far-right party "National Front", Jean-Marie Le Pen, has died at the age of 96.

Other Significant Developments

Casualty Reports: Ukrainian forces report significant Russian casualties, while Russian sources claim even heavier Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region, reaching 48,000.
Troop Mobilization: Ukraine has reportedly mobilized 200,000 troops in 2024, falling short of the 500,000 called for by former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny.
Environmental Concerns: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea have reached the coasts of Crimea, causing the deaths of dolphins.
Serbia's Energy Supply: Serbia is seeking new oil and gas supply routes due to the threat of US sanctions.
Czech Republic Military Aid: The Czech Republic issued 40 permits for Czech citizens to fight for Ukraine in the past year but rejected nearly twice as many applications.
Satellite Image Analysis: The satellite image reveals a high-value area with a strategically important palace/complex, potential avenues of approach via roads, a key naval access point with the marina, and possible landing zones on the beaches and open field.
Ukrainian Naval Update: The Ukrainian Navy reports that one enemy warship, a "Kalibr" missile carrier, is present in the Black Sea, but no missile firings are reported. In the Sea of Azov, no enemy warships or missile carriers are present. In the Mediterranean Sea, seven enemy warships, including two "Kalibr" missile carriers, are present, with 22 missile firings reported.
Chechnya: Chechen bots reportedly wrote over 60 million comments in a year to create the appearance of support for local authorities.
Syria: There are reports of US military personnel starting the construction of a military base in Kobani (Ayn al-Arab) in northern Syria.
Ust-Luga Terminal Attack: New details have emerged about the attack on the Ust-Luga terminal, carried out by SBU drones. The drones reportedly traveled over 900 km and successfully hit their target, causing significant damage to gas condensate tanks.
Explosion in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky: An air raid alert was declared in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov region, followed by a column of smoke rising near military-technical property warehouses. The warehouses are reportedly combined with the production facility of FKP "Kombinat "Kamensky", which has previously been attacked.
New Medical Equipment in Dnipropetrovsk region: One of the regional hospitals has received a new angiograph, which will allow for more precise diagnostics and treatment, especially for patients with head artery damage.
Capture of US Army M577: Russian forces claim to have captured a US Army M577 command post vehicle in the Kursk region, with markings indicating it belonged to the 2nd Battalion, 69th Armor Regiment.
Frontline Christmas in Donetsk People's Republic: A video report highlights the celebration of Orthodox Christmas on the front lines in the DPR, with Russian military personnel receiving gifts and medical personnel being recognized for their service. The report emphasizes the ongoing fighting and the provision of new medical equipment to a hospital in Horlivka.
Reconstruction Efforts in Avdiivka: A video shows ongoing reconstruction efforts in Avdiivka, with a focus on restoring normalcy and improving living conditions for residents. The video highlights the installation of new windows, the presence of Christmas decorations, and interactions between soldiers and civilians.
Internal Russian Military Issues: A video message from a Russian soldier, Sergei Pirkin, alleges threats from his commanders and misconduct within his unit (military unit 40318). He claims that criminal cases have been opened against his commanders but that they remain free. Pirkin is currently being held in a military commandant's office for not returning from leave due to a contusion and his mother's health condition.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely challenging for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making substantial gains in the Donetsk region, with the capture of Kurakhove and the critical situation in Toretsk. The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has been decisively repelled, resulting in substantial losses. Drone warfare continues to be a central element of the conflict, with widespread drone activity across multiple oblasts. The geopolitical landscape is increasingly complex, with Zelensky's statements on NATO membership and potential negotiations, along with Macron's call for "realistic discussions," signaling a potential shift in the approach to the conflict. Continued military aid from Western countries underscores ongoing international support for Ukraine. However, the termination of Russian gas transit through Ukraine and Serbia's search for alternative energy supplies highlight the broader economic and geopolitical implications of the conflict. Environmental concerns in the Black Sea add another layer of complexity.

Recent updates indicate continued Russian advances in the Kursk region, with paratroopers pushing Ukrainian forces out of Novosotnitskoe and capturing Leonidovo. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian S-300 air defense system near Malaya Loknya highlights Russian capabilities in targeting Ukrainian air defenses. The intensified fighting in the Kursk region signifies a broadening of the conflict zone. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile usage in areas where an air alert has been declared, as well as drone activity in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. The reported capture of a British Challenger tank in the Kursk region, if confirmed, would be a significant trophy for Russian forces. Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate their ability to target and neutralize Russian air defenses, as evidenced by the destruction of a Russian "Buk-M1" anti-aircraft missile system with a drone. The discussion around a potential ceasefire highlights the complex and multifaceted nature of the conflict, with varying viewpoints on the strategic implications of such a move. Some see it as an opportunity for modernization and regrouping, while others view it as a dangerous concession that would allow the adversary to strengthen their position.

The new messages indicate that the international community should react to attacks on the ZNPP. The capture of a US Army M577 command post vehicle by Russian forces in the Kursk region, if confirmed, would be a significant development, indicating the presence of US-supplied equipment in the area and potentially providing valuable intelligence to Russian forces. The markings on the vehicle suggest it belonged to the 2nd Battalion, 69th Armor Regiment, part of the US Army's 3rd Infantry Division. This development could further escalate tensions and potentially draw the US and NATO more directly into the conflict. The resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau adds another layer of uncertainty to the geopolitical landscape, as Canada has been a key supporter of Ukraine. The change in leadership could potentially impact the level of support provided to Ukraine, depending on the stance of the new Prime Minister.

The video reports from the Donetsk region highlight the ongoing fighting and the efforts by Russian forces to consolidate their gains and improve the lives of civilians in captured territories. The provision of new medical equipment to a hospital in Horlivka suggests an attempt to address the healthcare needs of the population, while the reconstruction efforts in Avdiivka aim to restore normalcy and demonstrate the benefits of Russian control. The emphasis on Christmas celebrations and the distribution of gifts to soldiers and civilians serve as a propaganda tool to boost morale and portray a positive image of the Russian presence.

The allegations made by the Russian soldier, Sergei Pirkin, regarding threats and misconduct within his unit, if true, point to potential issues with discipline and morale within the Russian military. The fact that criminal cases have been opened against his commanders suggests that these allegations are being taken seriously, at least to some extent. However, the commanders' continued freedom raises questions about the effectiveness of the internal investigation and the commitment to addressing such issues. Pirkin's current situation, being held in a military commandant's office for not returning from leave, highlights the challenges faced by soldiers who attempt to speak out against their superiors.

The death of Jean-Marie Le Pen, while not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, marks the passing of a significant figure in French and European politics. His far-right views and controversial statements have had a lasting impact on the political landscape, and his death could potentially influence the dynamics within the French far-right movement.

Overall, the situation remains fluid, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum and Ukrainian forces facing mounting challenges. The increasing use of drones, the geographical expansion of the conflict, the evolving geopolitical landscape, and now the potential capture of US military equipment contribute to the complexity of the situation. The conflict's broader impact, including long-term environmental damage, humanitarian consequences, and economic ramifications, continues to unfold alongside the intense military engagements. The destruction of a bus in Kherson, resulting in civilian casualties, underscores the ongoing risks to civilians in the conflict zone. The international community's response to attacks on nuclear facilities will be crucial in the coming days and weeks. The internal issues within the Russian military, as highlighted by Pirkin's allegations, could potentially impact the effectiveness and cohesion of Russian forces on the ground.

Situation Report