Key Updates on the Military Situation in Ukraine

As of January 7, 2025, 07:33 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine is highly volatile, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Russian forces are making significant advances in Donetsk, particularly around Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk, while Ukrainian forces are struggling to maintain defensive positions. Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, and the situation in Toretsk is critical, with less than 15% of the city under Ukrainian control. In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces consolidating positions and claiming the capture of several settlements, including Malaya Loknya and Makhnovka.

Drone warfare remains a central element, with extensive use by both sides. Ukrainian forces report the successful use of fiber-optic guided FPV drones in Pokrovsk and the introduction of riverine drones in the Dnipro River basin. Russian tactical aviation activity is increasing in the north-eastern direction, with air raid alerts activated in several regions due to the threat of ballistic missile usage. Russian airstrikes have caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast, notably in Zolochiv.

Geopolitical developments include the postponement of the US Special Representative's visit to Kyiv until after Trump's inauguration, suggesting a potential shift in US policy towards Ukraine. The US Treasury Secretary's threat of "significant consequences" for China if it aids Russia highlights escalating tensions. Reports also indicate a potential meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Toretsk in Critical Condition: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Battles are ongoing along major streets, with Russian forces advancing into the western and northern parts of the city. Ukrainian forces report repelling 30 Russian attacks in the area. The city is under intense attacks, and described as being "on fire".
Kurakhove Captured: Russian forces have fully captured Kurakhove, solidifying their control and enabling further offensives towards Pokrovsk.
Intensified Attacks near Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka, Yelizavetovka, and Baranovka.
ISW Assessment: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) considers the encirclement of Pokrovsk a key Russian operational goal.
Lysivka: Russian forces report further advances of 500m towards the central part of the village.
Sukhoi Yar: Fighting continues in the area.
Southwest of Pokrovsk: Russian troops are advancing from Pisky towards the T-0406 highway and the railway line.
Volkovo: Russian artillery reportedly destroyed an enemy ammunition depot. The settlement was subsequently captured by Russian forces.
Vozdvyzhenka: After capturing the settlement, Russian forces are advancing further and have reportedly dislodged Ukrainian forces from a stronghold near the road.
Krasnoarmiisk Direction: Positional fighting continues in the Krasnoarmiisk-Novoaleksandrivka direction.
Belogorovka: Russian forces report successful advances by the 7th Brigade in Belogorovka.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces report they have taken new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar, advancing up to 1.5 km.
Shevchenko: The 114th brigade of Russian forces has reportedly liberated Shevchenko, continuing their advance beyond Kurakhovo.
Velyka Novosilka: An operational video from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the Vostok group showcases their drones destroying enemy observation and communication equipment near Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces report that a Russian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka was destroyed by drone operators.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports indicating that up to 50% of Ukrainian infantry in the area may consist of prisoners, including those forcibly mobilized.
Russian Consolidation: Russian forces are consolidating positions, entering Malaya Loknya and advancing in Makhnovka.
Heavy Losses: Both sides are suffering significant losses. Geolocated footage confirms Ukrainian tactical advances in the southern part of Berdin, as well as in the center of Russkoye Porechnoye and Novosotnitskoye, but simultaneous Russian advances west of Malaya Loknya indicate a fluid situation.
Intense Aerial Bombardment: Reports indicate an unprecedented number of Russian air sorties, with bombers continuously striking Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian sources dispute the intensity of the air attacks.
Russian Claims: Russian sources claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days, with 14 Ukrainian soldiers captured near Berdin.
Leonidovo: Russian forces are making progress in the forests of the Sudzhansky district and near Leonidovo and Kurilovka.
Kruhlenky: The Russian Army is conducting a powerful offensive, storming Kruglenkoye and advancing towards Sudzha, Martynovka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: Russian forces advanced to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Ka-52M Helicopters: Ka-52M helicopters reportedly disrupted a rotation of Ukrainian units in the border area.
Ukrainian Infiltration Attempts: Ukrainian forces attempted to infiltrate from Cherkasskoye Porechnoye but were repelled by artillery fire. Ukrainian reserves are being brought into Lebedevka and Sverdlikovo, with the use of "Baba Yaga" agricultural drones for reconnaissance.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Use: Both sides employ drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
Fiber-Optic Guided Drones: Ukrainian forces are utilizing fiber-optic guided FPV drones in Pokrovsk, targeting military vehicles.
Destruction of Retransmitter: A Ukrainian FPV drone retransmitter was reportedly destroyed by a Russian drone in the Kursk region.
Overnight Attacks: 12 Ukrainian drones were destroyed over Russian regions overnight. Russian forces also carried out strikes on various Ukrainian regions.
Ukrainian Drone Successes: Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 10 Russian drones over Cherkasy Oblast and 12 Shahed drones over Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces ("Shadow" unit) successfully identified and destroyed two enemy artillery pieces using drones.
New Riverine Drones: Ukrainian forces are reportedly using riverine drones in the Dnipro River basin, although their range and speed are limited compared to maritime drones.
Drone Warfare Intensification: The "Sever" group of forces is engaged in fierce battles along the entire front line, using a variety of drones, including fiber-optic and AI-equipped ones.
Drone Strikes: Drone operators of the 36th Army of the "Vostok" group reportedly struck a concentration of enemy personnel near Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast Attacks: 380 strikes were reported across 12 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including 241 drone attacks on various locations.

Air Attacks and Alerts

Increased Activity: Increased activity of Russian tactical aviation is reported in the north-eastern direction.
Threat of Shahed Drones: A threat of Shahed drones is reported in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts were activated in several regions of Ukraine due to the threat of ballistic missile usage.
Russian Airstrikes: Russian forces conducted airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in Izium, Kharkiv Oblast.
Zolochiv Airstrikes: At least 30 houses, two apartment buildings, power lines, and a car were damaged in Russian airstrikes on Zolochiv, Kharkiv Oblast. A 61-year-old woman suffered an acute stress reaction.

Geopolitical Developments

US Special Representative's Visit Postponed: The US Special Representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has postponed his visit to Kyiv until after Trump's inauguration. This suggests a potential shift in US policy towards Ukraine under the incoming administration.
Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky criticizes the imposition of sanctions against Russia and expresses frustration with the security guarantors of the Budapest Memorandum.
China's Potential Technological Advantage: China claims a major breakthrough in laser communication "satellite-to-ground," potentially surpassing Elon Musk's Starlink.
US-China Tensions: The US Treasury Secretary threatened China with "significant consequences" for aiding Russia in the conflict with Ukraine.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd.
Austria: Reports indicate that the nationalist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) has been tasked with forming a new government in Austria, potentially impacting the country's stance on the conflict.
Bulgaria: The Bulgarian government is experiencing political instability, with a high level of public distrust and dissatisfaction with the EU's influence.

Other Significant Developments

Ukrainian Military Reports: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russian forces have suffered approximately 800,010 casualties since the beginning of the conflict, with 1,970 in the past 24 hours. They also report significant Russian equipment losses, including 9,710 tanks, 20,189 armored fighting vehicles, 21,710 artillery systems, and 21,708 drones.
Mobilization Challenges: Reports indicate unlawful conscription of employees from a critical enterprise in the Mykolaiv region. The Ukrainian word of the year for 2024, "busification," reflects the forced and accelerated mobilization process, highlighting concerns over the prioritization of quantity over quality in recruitment.
Lawsuit Against Russian MoD: The Degtyarev machine-gun plant has filed a lawsuit against the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Propaganda Efforts: Russian media outlets continue propaganda efforts, including the release of a new video from the group "Русский строй" titled "Рать."
Naval Activity: The Ukrainian Navy reports ongoing naval operations, with a focus on the Mediterranean Sea and continued use of the Kerch Strait by Russian forces. One Russian warship, a "Kalibr" missile carrier without missiles, was detected in the Black Sea. No enemy ships were present in the Sea of Azov.
North Korean Missile Test: North Korea reportedly launched a suspected ballistic missile.
Incidents in Russia: A gas explosion occurred in a residential building in Petrozavodsk, Russia. Telephone scammers are targeting Russian citizens by falsely accusing them of financing the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
US Interest in Greenland: The US, under President-elect Donald Trump, has renewed interest in purchasing Greenland from Denmark.
Earthquake in Tibet: The number of casualties from an earthquake in Tibet has risen to 53, with 62 injured.
Taiwan Airspace Incursions: In 2024, Taiwan's air defense systems recorded 5,111 sorties by Chinese aircraft, with 3,075 entering the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and 114 balloon flights.
Underwater Cables Damaged: Two underwater cables between Finland and Estonia, damaged in late December, have been repaired. Finnish authorities suspect the tanker Eagle S, sailing under the flag of the Cook Islands, of damaging the cables with its anchor. Eight of the 24 crew members are suspected of involvement and are prohibited from leaving the country. The EU considers the tanker part of Russia's "shadow fleet" used to circumvent sanctions.
Russian Soldier Testimonies: Videos featuring Russian soldiers, including "Smile," "Kurgan," Arkady Dorofeev, "Raskol," and Rulan Evloev, have been released, serving as propaganda to boost morale and promote recruitment. These videos highlight the soldiers' motivations, experiences, and supposed superiority over Ukrainian forces. They also emphasize the use of drones and the challenges of urban warfare.
Fundraising for Ukrainian Forces: The "DeepState" channel announced a successful fundraising campaign to procure Mavic 3T drones for the 22nd Mechanized Brigade, highlighting continued efforts to support Ukrainian forces through crowdfunding.
Religious Observances: A message from Kotsnews extended Christmas greetings to Orthodox followers, indicating the role of religious observances in the context of the ongoing conflict.
Historical Commemoration: A post from "Basurin o Glavnom" commemorated the 1988 battle at Height 3234 during the Afghan War, emphasizing historical military events and heroism.

Conclusion

The situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and precarious for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk, while the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled. Ukrainian forces are facing intense pressure, particularly in Toretsk, where they are struggling to maintain control of the remaining 15% of the city. The introduction of riverine drones by Ukrainian forces adds a new dimension to the conflict, although their current capabilities are limited. The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with potential shifts in US and European policy towards Ukraine. The coming days will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and the potential for further escalation. The high number of reported Russian casualties, the use of prisoners in combat, the escalating tensions between the US and China, and the continued fighting in both the Donetsk and Kursk regions highlight the complex and multifaceted nature of the conflict. The damage to civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast, particularly in Zolochiv, underscores the humanitarian cost of the war. The potential meeting between Scholz and Putin adds another layer of uncertainty to the situation. The recent testimonies from Russian soldiers provide insights into their motivations and experiences, serving as a propaganda tool for recruitment and morale-boosting. The fundraising efforts for Ukrainian forces demonstrate the continued support from various channels.

Updated Situation Based on New Messages

The new messages further emphasize the critical situation in Kurakhove, with reports from "BUTUSOV PLUS" indicating that the city is "factually lost" and Ukrainian forces are struggling to defend a narrow area, including a thermal power plant. The messages highlight concerns over Ukrainian command decisions, drawing parallels to previous defensive actions in Soledar, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar, suggesting a pattern of holding onto positions despite unfavorable conditions and high casualties.

"Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" reports that the 114th brigade has liberated Shevchenko, continuing their offensive beyond Kurakhovo. The accompanying video and images depict the aftermath of fighting in the area, with Russian forces planting a flag in the center of Shevchenko, claiming control of the settlement. The messages also mention the destruction of enemy personnel and equipment.

"АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА Z" provides an update on the Kursk direction, reporting that enemy groups attempted to infiltrate from Cherkasskoye Porechnoye but were repelled by artillery fire. The message also mentions enemy reserves being brought into Lebedevka and Sverdlikovo, and the use of "Baba Yaga" agricultural drones for reconnaissance.

"ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" shares a video showing the current state of Toretsk, with the city described as being "on fire" and under intensified enemy attacks. The message quotes soldiers from the "Predator" brigade, who describe the Russian army's "scorched earth" tactics.

"Два майора" reports on a fundraising campaign for a fast "buggy" equipped with EW (Electronic Warfare) capabilities for an assault unit on the Kharkiv front. This indicates a need for mobile and technologically advanced equipment to support offensive operations and counter enemy electronic warfare. The fundraising goal is 1,300,000 ₽, with 867,929 ₽ already collected.

"Colonelcassad" shares images of modified "Буханки" (UAZ-452) vans used in the conflict zone, highlighting the continued use of these vehicles for various purposes, including medical transport and logistics.

These updates reinforce the dire situation for Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region, particularly in Kurakhove and Toretsk. The reported capture of Shevchenko by Russian forces and the continued offensive actions further complicate the situation for Ukrainian defenders. The messages also highlight the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region and the use of drones for reconnaissance and attacks. The postponement of the US Special Representative's visit to Kyiv, as reported by "ASTRA" and "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны", adds another layer of uncertainty to the geopolitical landscape.

Overall, the new messages paint a picture of a rapidly deteriorating situation for Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region, with Russian forces making significant advances and consolidating their positions. The situation in Toretsk appears particularly critical, with the city under intense attack and Ukrainian forces struggling to maintain control. The continued fighting in the Kursk region and the use of drones by both sides further highlight the volatile and dynamic nature of the conflict. The geopolitical developments, particularly the postponement of the US envoy's visit, add another layer of complexity to the situation, raising questions about the future of international support for Ukraine. The fundraising campaign for the EW-equipped buggy underscores the importance of technological advancements in modern warfare and the need for rapid adaptation to evolving threats. The continued use of "Буханки" vans highlights the enduring role of these versatile vehicles in various military roles.

Situation Report