Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 7, 2025, 06:03 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains precarious for Ukrainian forces, with a continued Russian offensive focused on the Donetsk region and a stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region. Russian troops are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with less than 15% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control and battles occurring along major streets. The capture of Kurakhove has been confirmed, solidifying Russian control in the area and enabling further offensives towards Pokrovsk. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) considers the encirclement of Pokrovsk a key Russian operational goal.

In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces consolidating their positions and claiming to have captured several settlements. Russian sources report an unprecedented number of sorties in the region, with bombers striking Ukrainian positions without pause, though this claim is disputed by Ukrainian sources. Both sides are suffering significant losses, with Ukrainian sources claiming over 800,000 Russian casualties since the start of the conflict. Drone warfare remains a central element, with both sides utilizing them extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces report the successful use of fiber-optic guided FPV drones in Pokrovsk and the introduction of riverine drones in the Dnipro River basin.

Increased activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction and the threat of Shahed drones indicate a potential escalation in aerial attacks. Air raid alerts were activated in several regions due to the threat of ballistic missile usage. Russian airstrikes have caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast, particularly in Zolochiv, where at least 30 houses were damaged.

Geopolitical developments include the postponement of the US Special Representative's visit to Kyiv until after Trump's inauguration, suggesting a potential shift in US policy towards Ukraine. The US Treasury Secretary's threat of "significant consequences" for China if it aids Russia in the conflict highlights escalating tensions between the US and China. There are also reports of a potential meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd, which could have significant implications for the conflict.

Key Updates

Donetsk Region

Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Battles are ongoing along major streets, with Russian forces advancing into the western and northern parts of the city. Ukrainian forces report repelling 30 Russian attacks in the area.
Capture of Kurakhove: Russian forces have fully captured Kurakhove, solidifying their control in the area and enabling further offensives towards Pokrovsk.
Intensified Attacks near Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka, Yelizavetovka, and Baranovka.
ISW Assessment: The ISW considers the encirclement of Pokrovsk a key Russian operational goal.
Lysivka: Russian forces report further advances of 500m towards the central part of the village.
Sukhoi Yar: Fighting continues in the area.
Southwest of Pokrovsk: Russian troops are advancing from Pisky towards the T-0406 highway and the railway line.
Volkovo: Russian artillery reportedly destroyed an enemy ammunition depot. The settlement was subsequently captured by Russian forces.
Vozdvyzhenka: After capturing the settlement, Russian forces are advancing further and have reportedly dislodged Ukrainian forces from a stronghold near the road.

Kursk Region

Ukrainian Counteroffensive Stalled: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports indicating that up to 50% of Ukrainian infantry in the area may consist of prisoners, including those forcibly mobilized.
Russian Consolidation: Russian forces are consolidating their positions, entering Malaya Loknya and advancing in Makhnovka.
Heavy Losses: Both sides are suffering significant losses.
Geolocated Footage: Geolocated footage confirms Ukrainian tactical advances in the southern part of Berdin, as well as in the center of Russkoye Porechnoye and Novosotnitskoye, but simultaneous Russian advances west of Malaya Loknya indicate a fluid situation.
Continued Fighting: Ukrainian Special Operations Forces continue to engage Russian troops and equipment, employing snipers, engineers, artillery, and drone operators.
Intense Aerial Bombardment: Reports indicate an unprecedented number of Russian air sorties, with bombers continuously striking Ukrainian positions. However, Ukrainian sources dispute the intensity of the air attacks.
Russian Claims: Russian sources claim that the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days. They also report that 14 Ukrainian soldiers were captured near the village of Berdin.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Use: Both sides are employing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
Fiber-Optic Guided Drones: Ukrainian forces are utilizing fiber-optic guided FPV drones in Pokrovsk, targeting military vehicles.
Destruction of Retransmitter: A Ukrainian FPV drone retransmitter was reportedly destroyed by a Russian drone in the Kursk region.
Overnight Attacks: 12 Ukrainian drones were destroyed over Russian regions overnight. Russian forces also carried out strikes on various Ukrainian regions.
Ukrainian Drone Successes: Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 10 Russian drones over Cherkasy Oblast and 12 Shahed drones over Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces ("Shadow" unit) successfully identified and destroyed two enemy artillery pieces using drones.
New Riverine Drones: Ukrainian forces are reportedly using riverine drones in the Dnipro River basin, although their range and speed are limited compared to maritime drones.

Air Attacks and Alerts

Increased Activity: Increased activity of Russian tactical aviation is reported in the north-eastern direction.
Threat of Shahed Drones: A threat of Shahed drones is reported in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts were activated in several regions of Ukraine due to the threat of ballistic missile usage.
Russian Airstrikes: Russian forces conducted airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in Izium, Kharkiv Oblast.
Zolochiv Airstrikes: At least 30 houses, two apartment buildings, power lines, and a car were damaged in Russian airstrikes on Zolochiv, Kharkiv Oblast. A 61-year-old woman suffered an acute stress reaction.

Geopolitical Developments

US Special Representative's Visit Postponed: The US Special Representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has postponed his visit to Kyiv until after Trump's inauguration.
Potential US Policy Shift: The postponement suggests a potential shift in US policy towards Ukraine under the incoming administration.
Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky criticizes the imposition of sanctions against Russia and expresses frustration with the security guarantors of the Budapest Memorandum.
China's Potential Technological Advantage: China claims a major breakthrough in laser communication "satellite-to-ground," potentially surpassing Elon Musk's Starlink.
US-China Tensions: The US Treasury Secretary threatened China with "significant consequences" for aiding Russia in the conflict with Ukraine.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd.
Austria: Reports indicate that the nationalist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) has been tasked with forming a new government in Austria, potentially impacting the country's stance on the conflict.
Bulgaria: The Bulgarian government is experiencing political instability, with a high level of public distrust and dissatisfaction with the EU's influence. The country is becoming increasingly dependent on external energy sources due to EU policies.

Other Significant Developments

Ukrainian Military Reports: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russian forces have suffered approximately 800,010 casualties since the beginning of the conflict, with 1,970 in the past 24 hours. They also report significant Russian equipment losses, including 9,710 tanks, 20,189 armored fighting vehicles, 21,710 artillery systems, and 21,708 drones.
Mobilization Challenges: Reports indicate unlawful conscription of employees from a critical enterprise in the Mykolaiv region.
Lawsuit Against Russian MoD: The Degtyarev machine-gun plant has filed a lawsuit against the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Propaganda Efforts: Russian media outlets continue propaganda efforts, including the release of a new video from the group "Русский строй" titled "Рать."
Naval Activity: The Ukrainian Navy reports ongoing naval operations, with a focus on the Mediterranean Sea and continued use of the Kerch Strait by Russian forces. One Russian warship, a "Kalibr" missile carrier without missiles, was detected in the Black Sea. No enemy ships were present in the Sea of Azov.
North Korean Missile Test: North Korea reportedly launched a suspected ballistic missile.
Incidents in Russia: A gas explosion occurred in a residential building in Petrozavodsk, Russia. Telephone scammers are targeting Russian citizens by falsely accusing them of financing the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
US Interest in Greenland: The US, under President-elect Donald Trump, has renewed interest in purchasing Greenland from Denmark.
Earthquake in Tibet: The number of casualties from an earthquake in Tibet has risen to 53, with 62 injured.
Taiwan Airspace Incursions: In 2024, Taiwan's air defense systems recorded 5,111 sorties by Chinese aircraft, with 3,075 entering the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and 114 balloon flights.
Underwater Cables Damaged: Two underwater cables between Finland and Estonia, damaged in late December, have been repaired. Finnish authorities suspect the tanker Eagle S, sailing under the flag of the Cook Islands, of damaging the cables with its anchor. Eight of the 24 crew members are suspected of involvement and are prohibited from leaving the country. The EU considers the tanker part of Russia's "shadow fleet" used to circumvent sanctions.

Conclusion

The situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and precarious for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, while the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled. Ukrainian forces are facing intense pressure, particularly in the Kursk region, where Russian air power is being employed extensively, although Ukrainian sources dispute the intensity of the air attacks. The introduction of riverine drones by Ukrainian forces adds a new dimension to the conflict, although their current capabilities are limited. The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with potential shifts in US and European policy towards Ukraine. The coming days will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and the potential for further escalation. The high number of reported Russian casualties, the use of prisoners in combat, the escalating tensions between the US and China, and the continued fighting in both the Donetsk and Kursk regions highlight the complex and multifaceted nature of the conflict. The damage to civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast, particularly in Zolochiv, underscores the humanitarian cost of the war. The potential meeting between Scholz and Putin adds another layer of uncertainty to the situation.

Situation Report