Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 7, 2025, 05:03 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely precarious for Ukrainian forces. Russian troops are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with less than 15% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control and battles occurring along major streets. The capture of Kurakhove has been confirmed, solidifying Russian control in the area and enabling further offensives towards Pokrovsk. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) considers the encirclement of Pokrovsk a key Russian operational goal.

In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces consolidating their positions. Both sides are suffering significant losses. Ukrainian Special Operations Forces continue to engage Russian troops and equipment in the area, employing snipers, engineers, artillery, and drone operators. Reports indicate a high percentage of Ukrainian infantry in the area may be comprised of prisoners, including those forcibly mobilized.

Drone warfare remains a central element of the conflict. Ukrainian forces successfully identified and destroyed two enemy artillery pieces using drones. New reports indicate the use of riverine drones by Ukrainian forces, adding another dimension to the conflict. The extensive Chinese air activity around Taiwan, including numerous incursions into the ADIZ, highlights a pattern of persistent pressure and a disregard for the median line in the Taiwan Strait.

The increased activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction and the threat of Shahed drones indicate a potential escalation in aerial attacks. Air raid alerts were activated in several regions due to the threat of ballistic missile usage.

Geopolitical developments include the postponement of the US Special Representative's visit to Kyiv until after Trump's inauguration, suggesting a potential shift in US policy towards Ukraine. The US Treasury Secretary's threat of "significant consequences" for China if it aids Russia in the conflict highlights escalating tensions between the US and China. There are also reports of a potential meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd.

Other significant developments include reports of prisoners being used in combat, ongoing naval activity in the Black Sea, and efforts to maintain morale among Russian troops during the Orthodox Christmas holiday. The number of casualties from an earthquake in Tibet has also risen.

Key Updates

Donetsk Region

• Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Battles are ongoing along major streets, with Russian forces advancing into the western and northern parts of the city.
• Capture of Kurakhove: Russian forces have fully captured Kurakhove, solidifying their control in the area and enabling further offensives towards Pokrovsk.
• Intensified Attacks near Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka. Fighting is also ongoing in Yelizavetovka and Baranovka.
• ISW Assessment: The ISW considers the encirclement of Pokrovsk a key Russian operational goal.

Kursk Region

• Ukrainian Counteroffensive Stalled: The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with reports indicating that up to 50% of Ukrainian infantry in the area may consist of prisoners, including those forcibly mobilized.
• Russian Consolidation: Russian forces are consolidating their positions, entering Malaya Loknya and advancing in Makhnovka.
• Heavy Losses: Both sides are suffering significant losses in the Kursk region.
• Geolocated Footage: Geolocated footage confirms Ukrainian tactical advances in the southern part of Berdin, as well as in the center of Russkoye Porechnoye and Novosotnitskoye, but simultaneous Russian advances west of Malaya Loknya indicate a fluid situation.
• Continued Fighting: Ukrainian Special Operations Forces continue to engage Russian troops and equipment in the Kursk region, employing snipers, engineers, artillery, and drone operators.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Use: Both sides are employing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
• Fiber-Optic Guided Drones: Ukrainian forces are utilizing fiber-optic guided FPV drones in Pokrovsk, targeting military vehicles.
• Destruction of Retransmitter: A Ukrainian FPV drone retransmitter was reportedly destroyed by a Russian drone in the Kursk region.
• Overnight Attacks: 12 Ukrainian drones were destroyed over Russian regions overnight. Russian forces also carried out strikes on various Ukrainian regions.
• Ukrainian Drone Successes: Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 10 Russian drones over Cherkasy Oblast and 12 Shahed drones over Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces ("Shadow" unit) successfully identified and destroyed two enemy artillery pieces using drones.
• New Riverine Drones: Ukrainian forces are reportedly using riverine drones in the Dnipro River basin, although their range and speed are limited compared to maritime drones.

Air Attacks and Alerts

• Increased Activity: Increased activity of Russian tactical aviation is reported in the north-eastern direction.
• Threat of Shahed Drones: A threat of Shahed drones is reported in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts.
• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts were activated in several regions of Ukraine due to the threat of ballistic missile usage.

Geopolitical Developments

• US Special Representative's Visit Postponed: The US Special Representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has postponed his visit to Kyiv until after Trump's inauguration.
• Potential US Policy Shift: The postponement of Kellogg's visit suggests a potential shift in US policy towards Ukraine under the incoming administration.
• Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky criticizes the imposition of sanctions against Russia and expresses frustration with the security guarantors of the Budapest Memorandum.
• China's Potential Technological Advantage: China claims a major breakthrough in laser communication "satellite-to-ground," potentially surpassing Elon Musk's Starlink.
• US-China Tensions: The US Treasury Secretary threatened China with "significant consequences" for aiding Russia in the conflict with Ukraine.
• Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd.
• Austria: Reports indicate that the nationalist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) has been tasked with forming a new government in Austria, potentially impacting the country's stance on the conflict.

Other Significant Developments

• Mobilization Challenges: Reports indicate unlawful conscription of employees from a critical enterprise in the Mykolaiv region.
• Lawsuit Against Russian MoD: The Degtyarev machine-gun plant has filed a lawsuit against the Russian Ministry of Defense.
• Propaganda Efforts: Russian media outlets continue propaganda efforts, including the release of a new video from the group "Русский строй" titled "Рать."
• Naval Activity: The Ukrainian Navy reports ongoing naval operations, with a focus on the Mediterranean Sea and continued use of the Kerch Strait by Russian forces. One Russian warship, a "Kalibr" missile carrier without missiles, was detected in the Black Sea. No enemy ships were present in the Sea of Azov.
• North Korean Missile Test: North Korea reportedly launched a suspected ballistic missile.
• Incidents in Russia: A gas explosion occurred in a residential building in Petrozavodsk, Russia. Telephone scammers are targeting Russian citizens by falsely accusing them of financing the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• US Interest in Greenland: The US, under President-elect Donald Trump, has renewed interest in purchasing Greenland from Denmark.
• Earthquake in Tibet: The number of casualties from an earthquake in Tibet has risen to 32, with 38 injured.
• Taiwan Airspace Incursions: In 2024, Taiwan's air defense systems recorded 5,111 sorties by Chinese aircraft, with 3,075 entering the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and 114 balloon flights.

Conclusion

The situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and precarious for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, while the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled. The introduction of riverine drones by Ukrainian forces adds a new dimension to the conflict, although their current capabilities are limited. The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with potential shifts in US and European policy towards Ukraine. The coming days will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and the potential for further escalation. The use of prisoners in combat, the escalating tensions between the US and China, and the continued fighting in both the Donetsk and Kursk regions highlight the complex and multifaceted nature of the conflict.