Situation Report

Updated Situation: January 7, 2025, 03:33 UTC

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely precarious for Ukrainian forces. Russian troops are making significant advances in the Donetsk region and consolidating their positions in the Kursk region. The capture of Kurakhove and Ivanivka, along with the advances towards Pokrovsk and Toretsk, are critical developments that could lead to further breakthroughs for Russian forces. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region appears to have been unsuccessful, resulting in heavy losses and a potential setback for Ukrainian forces.

Drone warfare continues to be a central element of the conflict, with both sides employing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The continued drone activity across multiple regions of Ukraine highlights the persistent threat and the widespread nature of aerial engagements. The new information about the destruction of a Ukrainian FPV drone retransmitter by a Russian "Knyaz Vandal" drone in the Kursk region underscores the ongoing drone warfare and efforts to disrupt enemy communications and reconnaissance. The video analysis confirms the use of drones for reconnaissance and target identification by Russian forces, likely in support of ongoing operations in the Kursk region.

The reported activity of enemy tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction suggests a potential intensification of attacks in the frontline regions. This, combined with the ongoing drone movements, indicates that the aerial threat to Ukraine remains high.

Zelensky's recent statements regarding Elon Musk and "Starlinks" underscore the importance of international support, including from private sector actors. The ongoing propaganda efforts by Russian media outlets highlight the information warfare dimension of the conflict.

The reported training of Ukrainian soldiers in Britain and their impending deployment to the Pokrovsk direction, along with the reported destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles by Russian drone operators, demonstrate the continued international involvement in the conflict and the effectiveness of drone warfare.

The new information regarding the lawsuit filed by the Degtyarev machine-gun plant against the Russian Ministry of Defense introduces a new element of internal tension within Russia. While it does not directly affect the current military situation, it could potentially impact the production and supply of weapons in the future.

The reported launch of a suspected ballistic missile by North Korea adds to the overall geopolitical tensions but does not directly impact the military situation in Ukraine. The activation of air raid alerts in several regions of Ukraine due to the threat of ballistic missile usage indicates a potential escalation in Russian attacks and highlights the continued vulnerability of Ukrainian territory to missile strikes.

The confirmation by the ISW of Ukrainian tactical advances in the Kursk region, based on geolocated footage, suggests that Ukrainian forces have been able to achieve some success in pushing back Russian forces. However, the simultaneous Russian advances in the western and southern parts of Makhnovka indicate that the situation in the region remains fluid and contested.

The continued drone activity, as evidenced by the shooting down of a Ukrainian drone over the Bryansk region of Russia, underscores the ongoing threat of drone attacks and the importance of air defense capabilities for both sides.

The release of the new propaganda video from the group "Русский строй" titled "Рать" highlights the ongoing information warfare aspect of the conflict. The video's focus on logistical mobilization, air support and reconnaissance capabilities, troop readiness and experience, firepower projection, and the use of propaganda to boost morale suggests an attempt to showcase the strength and capabilities of the Russian military.

The analysis of the video from "НгП раZVедка" confirms the presence of Russian forces in an active combat zone and suggests that the soldier may be conducting reconnaissance or recording the aftermath of a battle. The video also serves as propaganda material and provides information about damaged military assets.

China's claim of a major breakthrough in laser communication "satellite-to-ground" could have significant implications for future technologies and potentially give China an edge over Elon Musk's Starlink.

The satellite image analysis reveals a strategically important location with a high-value palace/complex, potential avenues of approach, a key naval access point, and possible landing zones. The location's civilian nature but potential for military operations makes it a focal point for military planners.

The Ukrainian Navy's update indicates ongoing naval operations, with a focus on the Mediterranean Sea and continued use of the Kerch Strait by Russian forces. The presence of "Kalibr" missile carriers in the Black Sea and Mediterranean poses a significant threat.

The reports of Russian military operations in the Kursk region, including the actions of paratroopers and the use of drones, highlight the intensification of fighting in the area.

Zelensky's interview, where he criticizes the imposition of sanctions against Russia and expresses his frustration with the security guarantors of the Budapest Memorandum, reveals his dissatisfaction with the international response to the conflict and his efforts to seek stronger support for Ukraine.

The historical commemoration of the end of the Patriotic War in 1813 serves as a reminder of Russia's past military victories and the importance of patriotism and national unity.

The video analysis of Russian tank operations demonstrates the use of camouflage and surprise tactics in a snowy, wooded environment, highlighting the importance of armored warfare and close-range combat in the current conflict.

The video analyses of Zelensky's interviews reveal his strategic communication efforts to influence global policy, boost morale, and rally support for Ukraine. His use of derogatory language and coded speech underscores the ongoing information warfare and psychological dimension of the conflict.

The image analysis of the historical battle scene highlights the challenges of winter warfare and the importance of leadership, supply lines, and troop morale in such conditions.

The potential resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could have implications for international politics, although its direct impact on the military situation in Ukraine is unclear.

The reported ballistic missile test by North Korea adds to regional tensions but does not directly affect the situation in Ukraine.

The multiple overnight attacks on the Nikopol region of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, using both artillery and kamikaze drones, demonstrate Russia's continued targeting of Ukrainian territory and infrastructure. The successful interception of five drones by Ukrainian air defense forces highlights their effectiveness in countering aerial threats.

The new information about the destruction of 12 Ukrainian drones over Russian regions overnight and the Russian strikes on various Ukrainian regions further emphasizes the ongoing aerial warfare and the widespread nature of the conflict. Zelensky's interview continues to be a focal point of the information war, with Russian media using it to criticize him and portray him negatively.

The video showcasing the elimination of a group of Russian soldiers using FPV drones by the Ukrainian 110th Mechanized Brigade highlights the effectiveness of drone warfare and its impact on ground battles. The geolocation of battles in the Kursk region provides further insight into the areas where Ukrainian forces have been active and where the conflict is intensifying.

The reported shooting down of 10 Russian drones over Cherkasy Oblast by Ukrainian air defense forces demonstrates their continued vigilance and success in countering aerial threats. The confirmation of Russian advances in several locations, according to DeepState, underscores the deteriorating situation for Ukrainian forces on the ground.

The ISW's assessment of the encirclement of Pokrovsk as a key Russian operational goal, along with the reported activity of Russian troops east of the city, indicates a potential major offensive in the coming days or weeks. The 11th Guards Air Assault Army's air strikes on Ukrainian positions near Konstantinopol further highlight the ongoing air operations and their role in supporting ground advances.

The extensive attacks on 12 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, using a combination of aviation, drones, MLRS, and artillery, demonstrate the intensity of the conflict in that region and the widespread targeting of civilian areas.

The video analysis of the Ukrainian soldier's punishment for refusing to fight and wanting to surrender provides a glimpse into the internal dynamics of the Ukrainian military and the potential for low morale and dissent among the troops.

The new reports of increased activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction and the threat of Shahed drones in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts indicate a potential escalation in aerial attacks. Ukrainian air defense forces remain on high alert and are actively engaging these threats. The continued fighting in the Kursk region, as evidenced by the video from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS," highlights the ongoing engagement of Ukrainian Special Operations Forces against Russian troops and equipment. The use of snipers, engineers, artillery, and drone operators demonstrates the multifaceted approach of Ukrainian forces in this area.

The potential entry of Indonesia into BRICS could signal a shift in the global economic and political landscape, potentially strengthening the bloc's influence. This development, while not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, could have long-term implications for the geopolitical balance of power. The renewed interest of the US, under the newly elected President Donald Trump, in purchasing Greenland from Denmark introduces a new geopolitical dynamic. The planned visit of Donald Trump Jr. to Greenland, coinciding with the postponement of a meeting between the Greenlandic Prime Minister and the Danish King, suggests a potentially significant development in US foreign policy. Trump's statement about the benefits for Greenland's residents and the US's intention to "protect" the territory further emphasizes the strategic importance the US places on the island. This development could have implications for the Arctic region and potentially impact the broader geopolitical landscape, although its direct relevance to the conflict in Ukraine is currently unclear.

The new information about a gas explosion in a residential building in Petrozavodsk, Russia, resulting in injuries, does not directly impact the military situation in Ukraine. However, it highlights potential domestic challenges within Russia. Similarly, the report about telephone scammers targeting Russian citizens by falsely accusing them of financing the Ukrainian Armed Forces does not have a direct military impact but reflects the ongoing information warfare and attempts to exploit the conflict for criminal purposes. The earthquake in Tibet, while a significant natural disaster, does not directly affect the military situation in Ukraine.

Overall, the situation remains fluid and highly volatile, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum and Ukrainian forces facing mounting challenges. The increasing use of drones, the geographical expansion of the conflict, and the evolving geopolitical landscape contribute to the complexity of the situation. The coming days will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and the potential for further escalation.

Recommendations

1. Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, and immediate action is needed to prevent its complete capture. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Toretsk and Pokrovsk to counter the advancing Russian forces. Prioritize the defense of the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway, a crucial supply route.
2. Strengthen Air Defenses: Given the increased activity of Russian tactical aviation and the continued threat of drone attacks, it is essential to bolster air defense capabilities across Ukraine, particularly in the frontline regions. Deploy additional air defense systems, including short-range and medium-range systems, to counter drones and aircraft. Enhance early warning systems to provide timely alerts of incoming threats.
3. Counter Russian Advances in Kursk: While the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has faced significant challenges, it is important to continue efforts to contain Russian advances in the area. Focus on disrupting Russian supply lines, targeting troop concentrations, and utilizing special operations forces for reconnaissance and targeted strikes.
4. Enhance Drone Warfare Capabilities: Given the prominence of drone warfare in the conflict, continue to invest in the development and deployment of advanced drone systems for reconnaissance, targeting, and attack purposes. Explore countermeasures to Russian drone operations, including electronic warfare and anti-drone systems.
5. Maintain International Support: Continue to engage with international partners to secure military and financial assistance. Emphasize the need for continued supplies of weapons, ammunition, and other essential equipment. Highlight the importance of maintaining sanctions on Russia and seeking additional measures to pressure the Russian government.
6. Address Internal Tensions: Investigate and address reports of low morale and dissent within the Ukrainian military. Take steps to improve troop welfare, address grievances, and ensure effective leadership.
7. Monitor Geopolitical Developments: Keep a close watch on the evolving geopolitical landscape, including potential shifts in international support, the entry of new actors into the conflict, and any diplomatic efforts that could impact the situation in Ukraine. Specifically, monitor the US's interest in Greenland and any potential implications for the Arctic region and the broader geopolitical balance.
8. Information Warfare: Counter Russian propaganda and disinformation efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public. Highlight Russian losses and setbacks, while also showcasing Ukrainian successes and resilience.
9. Prepare for Potential Escalation: Given the fluidity of the situation and the potential for further Russian advances, develop contingency plans for various scenarios, including the loss of key territories, increased civilian casualties, and the potential use of more destructive weapons.
10. Seek Diplomatic Solutions: While maintaining a strong military posture, explore all possible avenues for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. Engage in negotiations with Russia, either directly or through intermediaries, to seek a ceasefire and a potential long-term settlement.
11. Address Logistical Challenges: Given the reported destruction of Ukrainian equipment and the challenges in maintaining supply lines, prioritize efforts to secure and protect logistical routes. Explore alternative supply routes and consider the use of decentralized logistics to mitigate the risk of disruption.
12. Intelligence Gathering: Enhance intelligence gathering efforts to monitor Russian troop movements, identify potential targets, and anticipate future actions. Utilize all available resources, including human intelligence, signals intelligence, and aerial reconnaissance.
13. Civilian Protection: Given the ongoing attacks on civilian areas, prioritize efforts to protect civilians from harm. Strengthen civil defense measures, provide early warnings of impending attacks, and evacuate civilians from high-risk areas when necessary.
14. Coordinate with Allies: Maintain close coordination with allies, particularly NATO members, to ensure a unified response to the conflict. Share intelligence, coordinate military operations, and seek joint diplomatic efforts to address the situation.
15. Long-Term Strategy: Develop a comprehensive long-term strategy for rebuilding and strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities. Focus on developing a modern and well-equipped military, enhancing cybersecurity, and addressing the root causes of the conflict to prevent future aggression.
16. Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Identify and exploit any weaknesses in the Russian military's operational capabilities, logistics, or morale. This could involve targeted strikes on vulnerable assets, disrupting command and control, or using information operations to sow dissent among Russian troops.
17. Strategic Communication: Refine strategic communication efforts to effectively convey Ukraine's narrative to both domestic and international audiences. Highlight the country's resilience, the justness of its cause, and the importance of international support in countering Russian aggression.
18. Adapt to Evolving Tactics: Continuously analyze and adapt to the evolving tactics employed by Russian forces, particularly in the areas of drone warfare, electronic warfare, and combined arms operations. Develop and implement countermeasures to maintain a competitive edge on the battlefield.
19. Cybersecurity: Given the increasing reliance on technology in modern warfare, strengthen cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure, military networks, and government systems from cyberattacks. Invest in advanced cyber defense capabilities and enhance international cooperation in this domain.
20. Economic Resilience: Implement measures to bolster Ukraine's economic resilience in the face of the ongoing conflict. This could involve diversifying trade partners, securing energy supplies, and attracting foreign investment to support the country's long-term recovery and development.
21. Humanitarian Assistance: Address the humanitarian needs of the civilian population affected by the conflict. Provide essential services, including food, shelter, medical care, and psychological support, to those displaced or living in conflict zones.
22. Prepare for Protracted Conflict: While seeking a diplomatic resolution, prepare for the possibility of a protracted conflict. Develop strategies for sustaining military operations over an extended period, maintaining public support, and managing the economic and social impacts of a prolonged war.
23. Internal Reforms: Continue to implement internal reforms aimed at strengthening governance, combating corruption, and promoting economic development. This will be crucial for maintaining public trust, attracting foreign investment, and ensuring Ukraine's long-term stability and prosperity.
24. Regional Cooperation: Enhance cooperation with neighboring countries, particularly those facing similar security challenges from Russia. This could involve joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and coordinated diplomatic efforts to address regional security concerns.
25. Leverage BRICS Development: Monitor the potential entry of Indonesia into BRICS and assess its implications for the global economic and political landscape. Explore opportunities for engagement with BRICS member states, while also being mindful of the potential challenges posed by the bloc's growing influence.
26. Monitor US-Greenland Relations: Closely monitor the developing relationship between the US and Greenland, particularly in light of the renewed US interest in purchasing the island. Assess the potential implications for the Arctic region, NATO's strategic posture, and the broader geopolitical balance.
27. Engage with Trump Administration: Given the potential impact of US policy on the conflict in Ukraine, engage with the incoming Trump administration to convey Ukraine's concerns and priorities. Seek to maintain US support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, while also addressing any potential changes in US foreign policy that could affect the situation.
28. Assess Impact of North Korean Missile Tests: While North Korea's missile tests do not directly impact the military situation in Ukraine, continue to monitor these developments and assess their implications for regional and global security. Maintain close communication with allies, particularly South Korea and Japan, to address the North Korean threat.
29. Address Potential for Increased Russian Aggression: Given the continued Russian military advances and the potential for further escalation, prepare for the possibility of increased Russian aggression. This could involve strengthening defenses along the entire frontline, developing rapid response capabilities, and enhancing coordination with international partners to deter further Russian attacks.
30. Maintain Focus on Strategic Objectives: Despite the challenging situation on the ground, maintain a clear focus on Ukraine's long-term strategic objectives. These include restoring territorial integrity, ensuring national security, and integrating with Euro-Atlantic institutions. All military and diplomatic efforts should be aligned with these overarching goals.