Nightwatch logo
'Nightwatch' text with white and gray letters
HomeMapNewsMilitary PulseSituation ReportsDaily ReportsList ViewVideosCyber Threats
Sign In
Contact Support
Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-01-06 16:02:03Z
1 year ago
Previous (2025-01-06 15:34:53Z)

Major Updates on the Military Situation in Ukraine

As of January 6, 2025, 16:00 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine continues to be precarious for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant advances, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they have captured Kurakhove and are pressing towards Pokrovsk and Toretsk. The situation in Toretsk is dire, with less than 15% of the city under Ukrainian control. A major Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has stalled, resulting in substantial Ukrainian losses, estimated as high as 48,000 casualties. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive drone activity reported across multiple oblasts, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging Russian drones, with reports of successful interceptions. The Ukrainian Air Force reports updates on the movement of Russian drones.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

  • Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces have fully captured Kurakhove, consolidating their positions and posing a direct threat to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway.
  • Critical Situation in Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk has significantly deteriorated, with less than 15% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control. Russian forces control the southern part and are advancing further into the city. Ukrainian forces are reportedly conducting clean-up operations in a high-rise building. One prisoner was reportedly taken. A video depicts Ukrainian special forces from the "Omega" unit clearing a heavily damaged urban structure in Toretsk, showcasing the complexities of urban warfare and the extraction of a wounded soldier.
  • Russian Advances: Russian forces are making gains near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. They are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka, southwest of Pokrovsk. Russian forces are gradually pushing through Dzerzhynsk and are approaching the western and northwestern outskirts.
  • Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are attempting to repel the Russian advance, reporting that they repelled a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushed Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Street fighting continues in Toretsk. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting Russian military equipment and personnel near Novoelizavetivka. Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Chasiv Yar: Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and an advance of up to 1.5 km.

Kursk Region

  • Major Ukrainian Offensive and Losses: A major Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has resulted in severe Ukrainian losses, estimated to be as high as 48,000 casualties. Russian forces have successfully repelled these attacks, inflicting significant damage on Ukrainian equipment, including the destruction of multiple "Kozak" armored vehicles and one tank. Video evidence shows the destruction of a British Challenger tank by Russian forces.
  • Russian Counterattack: Russian forces report repelling a Ukrainian counterattack near Berdin and claim to have destroyed multiple Ukrainian vehicles, including a British Challenger tank. They are engaged in battles near Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Kruglenkoye, with ongoing assaults towards Viktorovka. Video evidence shows drone footage from the 80th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces engaging Russian infantry in the Kursk region.
  • Continued Fighting: Fighting continues near Berdin and Malaya Loknya, with Russian forces making advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka. Russian paratroopers have reportedly pushed Ukrainian forces out of Novosotnitskoe and prevented them from approaching Berdino. Leonidovo has been taken under Russian control. Assault operations are ongoing in Alexandria and in the direction of Nikolsky. Russian forces claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian S-300 air defense system near Malaya Loknya. 10 more Ukrainian soldiers were reportedly captured, bringing the total for the day to 23. A video shows the interrogation of captured Ukrainian soldiers.
  • Ukrainian Retreat: Approximately 40 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly retreated from Berdin to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.

Luhansk Region

  • Russian Capture of Ivanivka: Russian forces have captured Ivanivka near Terny, marking a significant advance in the Luhansk region. They are also attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
  • Repelled Infiltrations: Russian forces have repelled over 30 attempts by Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries to penetrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.

Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

  • Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict. Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets, including a command post near the Toretsk mine and a Russian "Buk-M1" anti-aircraft missile system. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. FPV drones are being used extensively, particularly by Russian forces, causing significant damage to Ukrainian equipment and personnel. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting Russian positions with drones, resulting in multiple explosions and fires.
  • Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones. Reports indicate drone activity near Kyiv. Air raid alerts have been lifted in Zaporizhzhia oblast. Ukrainian air defense forces successfully detected and neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv. A video shows the downing of a Russian Orlan drone by Ukrainian forces.
  • Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts are active in Kyiv and several other regions. An air alarm was announced in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov region, and a column of smoke was seen rising near military-technical property warehouses.
  • Missile Attacks: Reports indicate the use of high-speed missiles, potentially KN-23 type, targeting Chernihiv. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have carried out a massive strike and 12 group strikes with high-precision weapons and UAVs, targeting Ukrainian military-industrial complex facilities, airfields, arsenals, and other targets. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) in the direction of Kharkiv and Donetsk. A missile threat is reported for the Rostov and Krasnodar regions, with reports of over 10 enemy aircraft airborne. A video shows the aftermath of a Russian strike on a bus in Kherson, resulting in one death and nine injuries.
  • New Drone Activity:
    • Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west. One drone was reported east of Zviahel, moving southwest. Two drones are reported to be heading towards Malyn, and two more towards Narodychi.
    • Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west. Three drones are reported to be circling in the north, with one approaching Boryspil and one having flown past Obukhiv towards Kyiv. 1 drone is approaching Boryspil. 2 drones are flying from Poltava region to Cherkasy. 1 drone is flying from Kirovohrad region to Vinnytsia. 3 drones are in Pryluky area, heading southwest. 3 new drones are flying through Shostka area, heading southwest.
    • Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west. Two drones are reported to be circling north of Chernihiv, and one is reported to be southwest of Chernihiv with a southeast trajectory. One drone is also reported to be circling near Pryluky. Two drones are heading towards Varva. A drone is in the center of Chernihiv Oblast, heading east. 1 drone north of Nizhyn, moving towards Chernihiv. 1 drone is heading via Konotop towards Sumy. 1 drone near Pryluky, moving northwest. A drone was detected in the western part of Chernihiv region, moving west. Another drone was detected in the southeastern part of Chernihiv region, moving west.
    • Sumy Oblast: Two drones are heading towards Romny, and one towards Lypova Dolyna. A drone is in the west of Zhytomyr Oblast, with a western/southwestern course. New drones were reported entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk.
    • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest.
    • Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are reported to be moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Three drones are also reported to be near Lozova. A drone is in the west of Kharkiv Oblast, with a western course.
    • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is reported to be in the Kryvyi Rih district with a trajectory towards the Kherson region, and another is flying over Dolynska in a southerly direction. One drone is also reported to be circling over Samara. A drone is in the north of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a western course. A drone is approaching Kremenchuk. A reconnaissance drone was detected north of Pavlograd.
    • Poltava Oblast: One drone is reported to be circling south of Poltava. One drone was reported west of Kremenchuk, constantly changing course. A drone is in the northeast of Poltava Oblast, with a southwesterly course. Three drones are heading towards Pyriatyn, and one towards Lubny.
    • Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course. One drone is reported to be in the western part, moving south.
    • Kyiv Oblast: Three drones are maneuvering near Chernobyl.
    • Cherkasy Oblast: One drone is heading towards Chornobai.

Geopolitical Developments

  • Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky has indicated a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and expressed openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited.
  • Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest that German Chancellor Scholz may meet with Russian President Putin before February 23.
  • US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, but the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th.
  • Macron's Statement: Macron has called on Ukrainians to engage in "realistic discussions" on territorial issues, suggesting that a quick and easy solution in Ukraine is unlikely. Macron also stated that Trump knows that the US has no chance of winning anything if Ukraine loses.
  • Moldova and Ukraine: Media outlets from Moldova and Ukraine are reportedly attempting to undermine Transnistria's trust in Russia, according to the Russian embassy. The Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned a representative of the Russian embassy following statements about the energy crisis in Transnistria.
  • BRICS: The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced Indonesia's accession to BRICS as a full member.

Other Significant Developments

  • Casualty Reports: Ukrainian forces report significant Russian casualties, while Russian sources claim even heavier Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region, reaching 48,000.
  • Troop Mobilization: Ukraine has reportedly mobilized 200,000 troops in 2024, falling short of the 500,000 called for by former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny.
  • Environmental Concerns: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea have reached the coasts of Crimea, causing the deaths of dolphins.
  • Serbia's Energy Supply: Serbia is seeking new oil and gas supply routes due to the threat of US sanctions.
  • Czech Republic Military Aid: The Czech Republic issued 40 permits for Czech citizens to fight for Ukraine in the past year but rejected nearly twice as many applications.
  • Satellite Image Analysis: The satellite image reveals a high-value area with a strategically important palace/complex, potential avenues of approach via roads, a key naval access point with the marina, and possible landing zones on the beaches and open field.
  • Ukrainian Naval Update: The Ukrainian Navy reports that one enemy warship, a "Kalibr" missile carrier, is present in the Black Sea, but no missile firings are reported. In the Sea of Azov, no enemy warships or missile carriers are present. In the Mediterranean Sea, seven enemy warships, including two "Kalibr" missile carriers, are present, with 22 missile firings reported. A video from the Ukrainian Navy shows the use of a drone to target a Russian Osa anti-aircraft missile system near Skadovsk.
  • Chechnya: Chechen bots reportedly wrote over 60 million comments in a year to create the appearance of support for local authorities. A video shows a meeting between the commander of the Chechen "Akhmat" unit, Apti Alaudinov, and the leader of the "Rusich" unit, Alexei Milchakov.
  • Syria: There are reports of US military personnel starting the construction of a military base in Kobani (Ayn al-Arab) in northern Syria.
  • Ust-Luga Terminal Attack: New details have emerged about the attack on the Ust-Luga terminal, carried out by SBU drones. The drones reportedly traveled over 900 km and successfully hit their target, causing significant damage to gas condensate tanks.
  • Explosion in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky: An air raid alert was declared in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov region, followed by a column of smoke rising near military-technical property warehouses. The warehouses are reportedly combined with the production facility of FKP "Kombinat "Kamensky", which has previously been attacked.
  • New Medical Equipment in Dnipropetrovsk region: One of the regional hospitals has received a new angiograph, which will allow for more precise diagnostics and treatment, especially for patients with head artery damage.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, with the capture of Kurakhove and the critical situation in Toretsk. The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has resulted in substantial losses and is being effectively countered by Russian forces. Drone warfare continues to be a central element of the conflict, with extensive drone activity reported across multiple oblasts. The geopolitical landscape is complex, with Zelensky's statements on NATO membership and potential negotiations, along with Macron's call for "realistic discussions," indicating a possible shift in the approach to the conflict. The continued military aid from Western countries, including the US and the Czech Republic, underscores the ongoing international support for Ukraine. However, the termination of Russian gas transit through Ukraine and Serbia's search for alternative energy supplies highlight the broader economic and geopolitical implications of the conflict. The environmental concerns in the Black Sea add another layer of complexity to the situation.

The new messages indicate continued Russian advances in the Kursk region, with paratroopers pushing Ukrainian forces out of Novosotnitskoe and preventing them from approaching Berdino. The capture of Leonidovo and ongoing assault operations in Alexandria further demonstrate Russian momentum in this area. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian S-300 air defense system near Malaya Loknya highlights Russian capabilities in targeting Ukrainian air defenses. The intensified fighting in the Kursk region signifies a broadening of the conflict zone. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile usage in areas where an air alert has been declared, as well as drone activity in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. Additionally, there are reports of a captured British Challenger tank in the Kursk region, which could be a significant trophy for Russian forces if confirmed. The new video evidence of Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian "Buk-M1" anti-aircraft missile system with a drone demonstrates their continued ability to target and neutralize Russian air defenses.

Overall, the situation remains fluid, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum and Ukrainian forces facing mounting challenges. The increasing use of drones, the geographical expansion of the conflict, and the evolving geopolitical landscape contribute to the complexity of the situation. The conflict's broader impact, including long-term environmental damage, humanitarian consequences, and economic ramifications, continues to unfold alongside the intense military engagements. The destruction of a bus in Kherson, resulting in civilian casualties, underscores the ongoing risks to civilians in the conflict zone.

Previous (2025-01-06 15:34:53Z)

We only use optional analytics cookies if you allow them. Necessary cookies stay on for sign-in and site security.

Learn more in our Privacy Policy.