Major Updates on the Military Situation in Ukraine

As of January 6, 2025, 15:03 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine continues to be highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant advances, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they have fully captured Kurakhove and are pressing towards Pokrovsk and Toretsk. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with less than 15% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control. A major Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has resulted in substantial Ukrainian losses, estimated to be as high as 48,000 casualties. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with both sides employing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging Russian drones, with reports of drone activity across numerous oblasts, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces have fully captured Kurakhove, consolidating their positions and posing a direct threat to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk has significantly deteriorated, with less than 15% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control. Russian forces control the southern part and are advancing further into the city.
Russian Advances: Russian forces are making gains near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. They are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka, southwest of Pokrovsk.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are attempting to repel the Russian advance, reporting that they repelled a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushed Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Street fighting continues in Toretsk.
Chasiv Yar: Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and an advance of up to 1.5 km.

Kursk Region

Major Ukrainian Offensive and Losses: A major Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has resulted in severe Ukrainian losses, estimated to be as high as 48,000 casualties. Russian forces have successfully repelled these attacks, inflicting significant damage on Ukrainian equipment.
Russian Counterattack: Russian forces report repelling a Ukrainian counterattack near Berdin and claim to have destroyed multiple Ukrainian vehicles, including a British Challenger tank. They are engaged in battles near Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Kruglenkoye, with ongoing assaults towards Viktorovka.
Continued Fighting: Fighting continues near Berdin and Malaya Loknya, with Russian forces making advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka.

Luhansk Region

Russian Capture of Ivanivka: Russian forces have captured Ivanivka near Terny, marking a significant advance in the Luhansk region. They are also attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
Repelled Infiltrations: Russian forces have repelled over 30 attempts by Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries to penetrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.

Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict. Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets, including a command post near the Toretsk mine. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. FPV drones are being used extensively, particularly by Russian forces, causing significant damage to Ukrainian equipment and personnel.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones. Reports indicate drone activity near Kyiv. Air raid alerts have been lifted in Zaporizhzhia oblast. Ukrainian air defense forces successfully detected and neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts are active in Kyiv and several other regions.
Missile Attacks: Reports indicate the use of high-speed missiles, potentially KN-23 type, targeting Chernihiv. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have carried out a massive strike and 12 group strikes with high-precision weapons and UAVs, targeting Ukrainian military-industrial complex facilities, airfields, arsenals, and other targets. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) in the direction of Kharkiv and Donetsk.
New Drone Activity:
- Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west. One drone was reported east of Zviahel, moving southwest. Two drones are reported to be heading towards Malyn, and two more towards Narodychi.
- Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west. Three drones are reported to be circling in the north, with one approaching Boryspil and one having flown past Obukhiv towards Kyiv. 1 drone is approaching Boryspil. 2 drones are flying from Poltava region to Cherkasy. 1 drone is flying from Kirovohrad region to Vinnytsia. 3 drones are in Pryluky area, heading southwest. 3 new drones are flying through Shostka area, heading southwest.
- Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west. Two drones are reported to be circling north of Chernihiv, and one is reported to be southwest of Chernihiv with a southeast trajectory. One drone is also reported to be circling near Pryluky. Two drones are heading towards Varva. A drone is in the center of Chernihiv Oblast, heading east. 1 drone north of Nizhyn, moving towards Chernihiv. 1 drone is heading via Konotop towards Sumy. 1 drone near Pryluky, moving northwest. A drone was detected in the western part of Chernihiv region, moving west. Another drone was detected in the southeastern part of Chernihiv region, moving west.
- Sumy Oblast: Two drones are heading towards Romny, and one towards Lypova Dolyna. A drone is in the west of Zhytomyr Oblast, with a western/southwestern course.
- Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest.
- Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are reported to be moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Three drones are also reported to be near Lozova. A drone is in the west of Kharkiv Oblast, with a western course.
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is reported to be in the Kryvyi Rih district with a trajectory towards the Kherson region, and another is flying over Dolynska in a southerly direction. One drone is also reported to be circling over Samara. A drone is in the north of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a western course. A drone is approaching Kremenchuk. A reconnaissance drone was detected north of Pavlograd.
- Poltava Oblast: One drone is reported to be circling south of Poltava. One drone was reported west of Kremenchuk, constantly changing course. A drone is in the northeast of Poltava Oblast, with a southwesterly course. Three drones are heading towards Pyriatyn, and one towards Lubny.
- Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course. One drone is reported to be in the western part, moving south.
- Kyiv Oblast: Three drones are maneuvering near Chernobyl.
- Cherkasy Oblast: One drone is heading towards Chornobai.

Geopolitical Developments

Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky has indicated a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and expressed openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest that German Chancellor Scholz may meet with Russian President Putin before February 23.
US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, but the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th.
Macron's Statement: Macron has called on Ukrainians to engage in "realistic discussions" on territorial issues, suggesting that a quick and easy solution in Ukraine is unlikely.

Other Significant Developments

Casualty Reports: Ukrainian forces report significant Russian casualties, while Russian sources claim even heavier Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region, reaching 48,000.
Troop Mobilization: Ukraine has reportedly mobilized 200,000 troops in 2024, falling short of the 500,000 called for by former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny.
Environmental Concerns: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea have reached the coasts of Crimea, causing the deaths of dolphins.
Serbia's Energy Supply: Serbia is seeking new oil and gas supply routes due to the threat of US sanctions.
Czech Republic Military Aid: The Czech Republic issued 40 permits for Czech citizens to fight for Ukraine in the past year but rejected nearly twice as many applications.
Satellite Image Analysis: The satellite image reveals a high-value area with a strategically important palace/complex, potential avenues of approach via roads, a key naval access point with the marina, and possible landing zones on the beaches and open field.
Ukrainian Naval Update: The Ukrainian Navy reports that one enemy warship, a "Kalibr" missile carrier, is present in the Black Sea, but no missile firings are reported. In the Sea of Azov, no enemy warships or missile carriers are present. In the Mediterranean Sea, seven enemy warships, including two "Kalibr" missile carriers, are present, with 22 missile firings reported.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, with the capture of Kurakhove and the critical situation in Toretsk. The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has resulted in substantial losses. Drone warfare continues to be a central element of the conflict, with extensive drone activity reported across multiple oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reports updates on the movement of Russian drones. The geopolitical landscape is complex, with Zelensky's statements on NATO membership and potential negotiations, along with Macron's call for "realistic discussions," indicating a possible shift in the approach to the conflict. The continued military aid from Western countries, including the US and the Czech Republic, underscores the ongoing international support for Ukraine. However, the termination of Russian gas transit through Ukraine and Serbia's search for alternative energy supplies highlight the broader economic and geopolitical implications of the conflict. The environmental concerns in the Black Sea add another layer of complexity to the situation.

The new messages indicate continued Russian advances in the Kursk region, with paratroopers pushing Ukrainian forces out of Novosotnitskoe and Berdino. The capture of Leonidovo and ongoing assault operations in Alexandria further demonstrate Russian momentum in this area. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian S-300 air defense system near Malaya Loknya highlights Russian capabilities in targeting Ukrainian air defenses. The intensified fighting in the Kursk region signifies a broadening of the conflict zone. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile usage in areas where an air alert has been declared, as well as drone activity in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts.

Overall, the situation remains fluid, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum and Ukrainian forces facing mounting challenges. The increasing use of drones, the geographical expansion of the conflict, and the evolving geopolitical landscape contribute to the complexity of the situation. The conflict's broader impact, including long-term environmental damage, humanitarian consequences, and economic ramifications, continues to unfold alongside the intense military engagements.

Situation Report