Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 6, 2025, 06:33 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely precarious for Ukrainian forces. Russian troops are making considerable progress in the Donetsk region, having fully captured Kurakhove and making substantial advances towards Pokrovsk and Toretsk. The situation in Toretsk is particularly dire, with less than 15% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control. Russian forces have advanced in Toretsk, Zelene, Petropavlivka, near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, and Pishchane. The capture of Ivanivka near Terny in the Luhansk region signifies a noteworthy Russian advance.

A major Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has resulted in severe Ukrainian losses, estimated to be as high as 48,000 casualties. Russian forces have successfully repelled these attacks, inflicting significant damage on Ukrainian equipment. Geolocated footage from January 5 indicates that Ukrainian forces have advanced in the fields southwest and south of Berdin and entered the southern part of the settlement. Geolocated footage also shows that Russian forces have advanced in the western and southern parts of Makhnovka.

Drone warfare continues to be a dominant aspect of the conflict, with both sides extensively using drones. Ukrainian forces are actively using drones to counter Russian advances, targeting individual soldiers and vehicles with precision strikes. Overnight, 12 Ukrainian drones were destroyed over Russian regions. Russian forces also carried out strikes on targets in several Ukrainian regions, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kherson. The "Sudoplatov" unit's reported destruction of Ukrainian infantry and equipment, including a BMP, a Leopard 2A4 tank, and a British Husky TSV armored vehicle, highlights the ongoing and intense nature of drone warfare.

The intensified fighting in the Kursk region, especially near Leonidovo and Makhnovka, indicates a broadening of the conflict zone. Russian forces are consolidating their positions near Berdin. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian S-300 air defense system near Malaya Loknya further demonstrates Russian military capabilities in this area. Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.

The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile usage in areas where an air alert has been declared, as well as drone activity in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. A new alert has also been issued regarding an enemy drone approaching Lubny in Poltava Oblast from the northeast.

Key Developments

Intensified Ground Operations and Russian Advances

• Donetsk Region:
  • Critical Situation in Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk has significantly deteriorated, with reports indicating that less than 15% of the city remains under Ukrainian control. Russian forces control the entire southern part of the city and have advanced further into the city.
  • Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Kurakhove and are advancing towards Pokrovsk, posing a direct threat to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. They report advances near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka, southwest of Pokrovsk. Positional fighting continues in the Krasnoarmiisk-Novoaleksandrivka direction.
  • Heroic Battle near Pokrovsk: A Russian tank, accompanied by two BMPs, engaged two Ukrainian tanks at a close range near Yelyzavetivka, east of Pokrovsk. The Russian tank successfully destroyed one Ukrainian tank. The second Ukrainian tank retreated. Following this engagement, Russian infantry secured positions in Yelyzavetivka.
  • Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are attempting to repel the Russian advance, reporting that they repelled a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushed Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Street fighting continues in Toretsk. Ukrainian forces report almost 110 battles today, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Casualties: Ukrainian forces report repelling 30 Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk direction and claim to have neutralized 304 Russian troops, with 130 killed. They also report destroying one tank, four BMPs, six vehicles, one artillery system, and ten UAVs. Two artillery systems, one vehicle, and one tank were damaged.
  • Chasiv Yar: Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and an advance of up to 1.5 km.
• Kursk Region:
  • Major Ukrainian Offensive: A major Ukrainian offensive is underway, with intense fighting reported near Leonidovo, Berdin, Bolshoe Soldatskoe, Martynovka, and Pushkarnoe. The Ukrainian General Staff reports over 40 battles in the Kursk region.
  • Russian Counterattack: Russian forces report repelling a Ukrainian counterattack near Berdin and claim to have destroyed multiple Ukrainian vehicles, including a British Challenger tank. They are engaged in battles near Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Kruglenkoye, with ongoing assaults towards Viktorovka. The 106th Airborne Division is conducting active assault operations in the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. A new video released by the Russian Ministry of Defense reportedly shows the successful disruption of a Ukrainian rotation in the Kursk border area by Russian tankers and a UAV operator.
  • Situation near Berdin: Russian forces are reportedly eliminating remaining Ukrainian troops near Berdin without significant resistance. Expected Ukrainian reserves have not arrived, suggesting a potential failure in the Ukrainian offensive plan.
  • Casualties: Russian sources claim the Ukrainian military has lost over 540 troops, with new reports indicating even heavier losses, reaching 48,000 casualties.
  • Continued Fighting: Fighting continues near Berdin and Malaya Loknya, with Russian forces making advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka.
  • Ukrainian Units Identified: The Ukrainian units involved in the offensive are identified as the 95th, 92nd, 22nd, 82nd, and 225th Brigades, although it is clarified that only parts of these brigades are involved.
  • Drone Attack on Kursk: Reports indicate a drone attack on Kursk, with claims of a "massive raid from several sides at once." Air defense systems were reportedly active.
• Luhansk Region:
  • Russian Advances: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Russian forces have liberated Nadia.
  • New Update: Russian forces have captured Ivanivka near Terny, according to both Russian and Ukrainian sources. This marks a significant Russian advance in the Luhansk region. Russian forces are also attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
  • Repelled Infiltrations: Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 attempts by Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries to penetrate the territory of the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week. Ukrainian losses are reported to be over 8,000 soldiers and mercenaries.

Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

• Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones extensively.
  • Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets, including a command post near the Toretsk mine. FPV drones are being used extensively, particularly by Russian forces, causing significant damage to Ukrainian equipment and personnel.
  • New Drone Targets: Russian drones are targeting Chernihiv and Nizhyn.
  • Drone Movements: Reports indicate drone movements in Chernihiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, and Kirovohrad. Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down 7 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • New Update: 340 additional drones have been procured by Ukrainian forces thanks to donations, bringing the total to 134,114 FPV drones.
  • Ukrainian forces successfully employed a drone to eliminate a single Russian soldier.
• Air Defense Engagements:
  • Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones. Reports indicate drone activity near Kyiv. The threat of attack drones has been lifted across all regions, according to the Ukrainian Air Force.
  • A Ukrainian drone was shot down over the Bryansk region of Russia. No casualties or damage were reported.
  • Explosions were reported in Cherkasy and its outskirts.
  • A Ukrainian missile was shot down over the territory of the Kursk region.
• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts are active in Kyiv and several other regions. Air raid alerts have been lifted in Zaporizhzhia oblast.
• New Drone Activity:
  • Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west. One drone was reported east of Zviahel, moving southwest.
  • Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west. Three drones are reported to be circling in the north, with one approaching Boryspil and one having flown past Obukhiv towards Kyiv.
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west. Two drones are reported to be circling north of Chernihiv, and one is reported to be southwest of Chernihiv with a southeast trajectory. One drone is also reported to be circling near Pryluky.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest.
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are reported to be moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Three drones are also reported to be near Lozova.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is reported to be in the Kryvyi Rih district with a trajectory towards the Kherson region, and another is flying over Dolynska in a southerly direction. One drone is also reported to be circling over Samara.
  • Poltava Oblast: One drone is reported to be circling south of Poltava. One drone was reported west of Kremenchuk, constantly changing course.
  • Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course. One drone is reported to be in the western part, moving south.

Geopolitical Developments

• Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky has indicated a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and expressed openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited. He also hopes that Trump can end the war and provide strong security guarantees to Ukraine. Zelensky stated that elections in Ukraine could be held 90 days after the war's end. He also expressed a desire for Elon Musk to be maximally on Ukraine's side, acknowledging his gratitude for "Starlinks."
• Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest that German Chancellor Scholz may meet with Russian President Putin before February 23.
• Apple CEO's Potential Donation to Trump's Inauguration: Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, is reportedly planning to donate $1 million to Donald Trump's inauguration.
• Legal Action Against Von Der Leyen: A Belgian court will consider whether European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has legal immunity against corruption allegations related to the purchase of COVID-19 vaccines.
• German Foreign Minister on Aid to Syria: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has made the provision of aid to Syria under new authorities dependent on respect for women's rights, stating that the EU will not send money "to Islamist structures."
• North Korean Missile Launch: North Korea has reportedly launched a suspected ballistic missile, according to the Japanese coast guard. The missile fell outside of Japan's exclusive economic zone in the Sea of Japan.

Other Significant Developments

• Casualty Reports: Ukrainian forces report significant Russian casualties. Russian sources claim even heavier Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region, reaching 48,000 casualties.
• Troop Mobilization: Ukraine has reportedly mobilized 200,000 troops in 2024, falling short of the 500,000 called for by former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny.
• Environmental Concerns: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea have reached the coasts of Crimea, causing the deaths of dolphins.
• US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, but the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th.
• Serbia's Energy Supply: Serbia is seeking new oil and gas supply routes due to the threat of US sanctions.
• Information Operations: Russian media is accused of building a narrative of victory and exaggerating its achievements. Ukrainian officials are criticized for their response to the situation in the Kursk region. Reports of a drone attack on Kursk highlight the ongoing information war. Russian media outlet Colonelcassad has been posting images and videos aimed at boosting morale and spreading propaganda. They have also been encouraging Ukrainians to join the "people's resistance" to "help Russia." A new video from Colonelcassad highlights the experiences of a Russian soldier who reportedly survived multiple battles and injuries, including being burned alive in Volchansk and liberating Avdiivka. This video likely serves as a propaganda piece to boost morale and portray Russian soldiers as resilient and heroic. Another video from Colonelcassad focuses on emigration from Israel, suggesting instability and a desire to leave the country. This video is likely intended to undermine Israel's image and sow discord among its population.
• Czech Republic Military Aid: The Czech Republic issued 40 permits for Czech citizens to fight for Ukraine in the past year but rejected nearly twice as many applications.
• Russian Military Claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have repelled a Ukrainian attack in the Kursk region, destroying 11 Ukrainian drones. Video evidence also shows the destruction of another Ukrainian tank in the Kursk region. A Russian Su-34 also struck Ukrainian infantry and equipment at a stronghold in the Kursk region.
• Ukrainian Military App: The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is developing a military ID within the "Army+" app.
• Fire in Kirov Oblast: A criminal case has been opened following a fire in Kirov Oblast that resulted in multiple fatalities.
• Internal Russian Political Developments: A scandal has emerged involving Russian deputies Fedorov and Matveychev, who reportedly criticized those fighting against illegal migration, labeling them as agents of British intelligence. This has sparked controversy and condemnation from various figures, including political analyst Sergei Markov. The situation has led to internal political tensions within Russia, with expectations of a response from the leadership of the State Duma.
• Confiscation of Assets: Russian authorities have begun the confiscation of assets belonging to former minister Abyzov, amounting to nearly 24 billion rubles, as indicated by court documents.
• Two people were injured: Two people were injured after a drone attack on the village of Rzhevka in the Belgorod region. One man suffered shrapnel wounds to the face, chest and arm, and the second suffered a shrapnel wound to the head, barotrauma and contusion.
• Poet and songwriter killed: Russian poet and songwriter Oleg Gegelsky was killed in the special operation zone at the age of 60. He was reportedly on a mission, traveling in a car through a "gray zone," when he came under artillery fire.
• South Korean President's Arrest Warrant: The Anti-Corruption Investigation Department for Senior Officials is reportedly transferring an arrest warrant application for South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol to the police in connection with a mutiny case.
• Former Deputy Head of Kuban Emergency Situations Ministry Cooperates with Investigation: Former Deputy Head of the Kuban Main Directorate of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, Simonenko, is reportedly cooperating with the investigation and providing detailed testimony.
• Increased Air Ticket Purchases: Russians have been increasingly purchasing air tickets to Japan, China, Vietnam, and South Korea in 2024.
• Ukrainian Soldiers Trained in Britain: A group of Ukrainian soldiers from the 117th Brigade, trained in Britain under a program approved by Boris Johnson, are reportedly preparing to enter the battle on the Pokrovsk direction.
• Russian Drone Operators Strike Ukrainian Vehicles: Russian FPV drone operators from the "Aida" group reportedly hit two Ukrainian armored fighting vehicles.
• Propaganda Video from "Русский строй": A new propaganda video from the group "Русский строй" titled "Рать" has been released. The video features tanks and armored vehicles being transported by rail, aerial surveillance footage, troop movements, heavy artillery and rocket fire, urban warfare scenes, night vision footage, and various propaganda elements. The video highlights logistical mobilization, air support and reconnaissance capabilities, troop readiness and experience, firepower projection, and the use of propaganda to boost morale. The video also suggests a diverse troop composition and the use of electronic warfare. The video is likely intended to showcase the strength and capabilities of the Russian military and to bolster morale among Russian troops and supporters.
• Video Analysis from "НгП раZVедка": The video depicts a Russian soldier walking through a recent combat area, evidenced by the presence of a destroyed tank. This footage confirms an active operation zone, potentially serves as reconnaissance, propaganda material, and provides information about damaged military assets. The soldier's uniform and patch suggest operational details about their role and unit, adding another layer of intelligence. However, the primary strategic use seems to be propaganda.
• China's Satellite Technology: China claims a major breakthrough in laser communication "satellite-to-ground," potentially surpassing Elon Musk's Starlink. This achievement could serve as the foundation for future technologies like 6G, next-generation satellite positioning systems, and ultra-high-resolution remote sensing.
• Satellite Image Analysis: The satellite image reveals a high-value area with a strategically important palace/complex, potential avenues of approach via roads, a key naval access point with the marina, and possible landing zones on the beaches and open field. The location seems to be of civilian nature, but with enough structure and accessibility to become a prime point for military operations. Military planners would focus on the palace as a high-value target, while the marina and nearby areas could be considered as potential supply routes and staging areas.
• Ukrainian Naval Update: The Ukrainian Navy reports that one enemy warship, a "Kalibr" missile carrier, is present in the Black Sea, but no missile firings are reported. In the Sea of Azov, no enemy warships or missile carriers are present. In the Mediterranean Sea, seven enemy warships, including two "Kalibr" missile carriers, are present, with 22 missile firings reported. The Kerch Strait transit data highlights its importance for Russian naval logistics and movements.
• Russian Military Operations in Kursk Region: Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov in the Kursk region. They also destroyed Ukrainian firing points with a 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar. In Chasiv Yar, Ivanovo paratroopers repelled a Ukrainian drone attack, suppressing four Baba Yaga drones with small arms fire. In the Kursk region, Primorsky paratroopers destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone.
• Zelensky's Interview: A video of Zelensky's interview has been released, where he criticizes the imposition of sanctions against Russia after the start of the special military operation, stating that "it's bullshit." He also claims that everyone didn't care about Ukraine and the security guarantors of the Budapest Memorandum. He further states that he told Trump to give Ukraine $300 billion from Russian assets to buy weapons and invest in the US industry. Lastly, he expresses his lack of respect for the current Russian leadership and its people.
• Historical Commemoration: January 6, 1813, marked the end of the Patriotic War, with Emperor Alexander I issuing a manifesto and ordering the construction of the Cathedral of Christ the Savior in Moscow. The event was celebrated annually on Christmas Day until the October Revolution. The "Great Army" of Napoleon suffered significant losses, with over 550,000 killed, wounded, or captured. The Patriotic War of 1812 had a profound impact on Russia's internal development and demonstrated the heroism and patriotism of the Russian people.
• Video Analysis of Russian Tank Operations: The video shows a Russian T-80 tank crew preparing for an offensive operation in a snowy, wooded environment. The emphasis on camouflage and the tank's movement through challenging terrain suggest a strategy of concealment and surprise. The loading of ammunition and the firing of the tank's weapon indicate its role as a key asset in close-range or ambush combat situations.
• Video Analysis of Zelensky's Interview: The video features Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaking against a conditional approach to sanctions on Russia, stating they should be imposed immediately rather than only in response to future escalations. His message conveys urgency, frustration, and a clear call for a more decisive international response. This communication is part of his strategy to influence global policy and support for Ukraine amidst ongoing military operations. This should be viewed as an effort to exert influence and seek stronger backing in the face of Russian aggression.
• Video Analysis of Zelensky's Interview (2): The video shows Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly discussing an adversary with highly derogatory rhetoric, explicitly comparing them to the villain Voldemort, while avoiding naming the subject directly. This is likely a strategic move intended for propaganda and morale boosting purposes among Ukrainians and international audiences. The use of encoded speech and negative comparisons signifies a need to maintain information control, further reinforcing a powerful and malicious enemy image. The tone and content suggest that Ukraine remains actively engaged in a psychological war along with the ongoing military operations.
• Video Analysis of Zelensky's Interview (3): The video conveys a critical message from President Zelenskyy directed towards the nations who were security guarantors under the Budapest Memorandum. His tone, as well as choice of language, is meant to highlight the failure of those guarantees, and to elicit more support for Ukraine. This video is likely not targeted to the domestic audience, but instead aimed at the US and European Union to remind them of their obligations under international agreements. These efforts could have implications on Ukraine’s support from other countries.
• Image Analysis of Historical Battle Scene: The image depicts a military operation in harsh winter conditions, with a focus on the challenges of cold weather, battle fatigue, and a disrupted supply chain. The inclusion of Alexander I's portrait underscores the importance of leadership in maintaining the morale and effectiveness of the troops. Strategically, commanders must pay attention to the impact of environmental conditions on troops, focus on resupply efforts, maintain communication channels and reinforce the troops with their leader to boost morale. The ongoing operations are happening under duress.
• Canadian Prime Minister's Potential Resignation: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may announce his resignation as leader of the Liberal Party due to internal party pressure and low public support. The announcement is expected before a key national meeting on January 8. It is unclear whether he will resign immediately or remain as Prime Minister until a new leader is chosen.
• North Korean Missile Test: North Korea launched a ballistic missile that flew about 1,100 km and fell into the Sea of Japan, according to the Yonhap news agency.
• Russian strikes in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: During the night, Russian forces attacked the Nikopol region five times using artillery and a kamikaze drone. The attacks targeted Nikopol, Pokrovsk, and Marhanets communities. There were no reported casualties. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down five drones during the evening and night.
• Propaganda: Zelensky's interview continues to be a topic of discussion, with Russian media criticizing his language and behavior.
• Drone Warfare: A video shows the elimination of a group of Russian soldiers using FPV drones by the 110th Mechanized Brigade.
• Kursk Region Fighting: Geolocation of battles in the Kursk region has been established, indicating the areas where Ukrainian forces attacked.
• Drone Activity in Sumy Oblast: Ukrainian air defense forces reportedly shot down 12 Shahed drones over Sumy Oblast during the night.
• Russian Advances: According to DeepState, Russian forces have made advances in Toretsk, Zelene, Petropavlivka, near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, and Pishchane.
• Strategic Importance of Pokrovsk: The ISW considers the encirclement of Pokrovsk as one of Russia's key operational goals. Russian troops have been active east of Pokrovsk, potentially aiming to advance through fields and small settlements.
• Air Strikes: The 11th Guards Air Assault Army carried out air strikes on Ukrainian positions near Konstantinopol.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast Attacks: Russian forces carried out 542 strikes on 12 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, using aviation, drones, MLRS, and artillery.
• Video Analysis of Ukrainian Soldier's Punishment: A video shows a Ukrainian soldier named Roman who claims he lost a finger for refusing to fight and wanting to surrender.

Changes Brought by the New Messages

• New Aerial Threats: The Ukrainian Air Force has reported increased activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction, posing a potential threat of air and missile strikes. Additionally, there is a reported threat of Shahed drones in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts, with drones observed on the border of Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts, moving towards Poltava Oblast.
• Drone Attacks Overnight: Russian forces carried out multiple drone attacks overnight. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 10 Russian drones over Cherkasy Oblast. There were reports of damage to civilian infrastructure in several locations due to falling debris, but no casualties were reported.
• Artillery and Drone Attacks in Kharkiv Oblast: Russian forces continued their attacks on Kharkiv Oblast, using both artillery and drones. Several locations were targeted, including Kharkiv, Zolochiv, and Kivsharivka. Damage was reported to private houses, administrative buildings, and a vehicle of the emergency medical service. No casualties were reported.
• Continued Fighting in Kursk Region: The video from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" showcases the ongoing operations of Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) in the Kursk region. The footage highlights the use of snipers, engineers, artillery, and drone operators in targeting Russian personnel and equipment. The video also includes graphic scenes of dead Russian soldiers being searched by Ukrainian forces, indicating close-quarters combat and potential intelligence gathering.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely precarious for Ukrainian forces, with Russian troops making significant advances in the Donetsk region and consolidating their positions in the Kursk region. The capture of Kurakhove and Ivanivka, along with the advances towards Pokrovsk and Toretsk, are critical developments that could lead to further breakthroughs for Russian forces. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region appears to have been unsuccessful, resulting in heavy losses and a potential setback for Ukrainian forces. The "Sudoplatov" unit's reported actions further demonstrate the effectiveness of Russian drone warfare and its impact on Ukrainian forces. The new messages confirm that Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.

Drone warfare continues to be a central element of the conflict, with both sides employing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The continued drone activity across multiple regions of Ukraine, as indicated by the new messages, highlights the persistent threat and the widespread nature of aerial engagements. The lifting of the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast provides a temporary reprieve for the region, but the overall threat remains.

The reported activity of enemy tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction suggests a potential intensification of attacks in the frontline regions. This, combined with the ongoing drone movements, indicates that the aerial threat to Ukraine remains high.

The increased purchase of air tickets by Russians to several Asian countries does not directly impact the military situation in Ukraine but could potentially signal a shift in diplomatic or economic engagements.

Zelensky's recent statements regarding Elon Musk and "Starlinks" underscore the importance of international support, including from private sector actors. The ongoing propaganda efforts by Russian media outlets, such as Colonelcassad's call for Ukrainians to join the "people's resistance," highlight the information warfare dimension of the conflict. The new propaganda videos released by Colonelcassad, focusing on the experiences of a Russian soldier and emigration from Israel, further demonstrate the ongoing information war and attempts to influence public opinion.

The reported training of Ukrainian soldiers in Britain and their impending deployment to the Pokrovsk direction, along with the reported destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles by Russian drone operators, demonstrate the continued international involvement in the conflict and the effectiveness of drone warfare.

The new information regarding the lawsuit filed by the Degtyarev machine-gun plant against the Russian Ministry of Defense introduces a new element of internal tension within Russia. While it does not directly affect the current military situation, it could potentially impact the production and supply of weapons in the future. The reported disruption of a Ukrainian rotation in the Kursk region by Russian forces further highlights their success in countering Ukrainian movements.

The reported launch of a suspected ballistic missile by North Korea adds to the overall geopolitical tensions but does not directly impact the military situation in Ukraine. The activation of air raid alerts in several regions of Ukraine due to the threat of ballistic missile usage indicates a potential escalation in Russian attacks and highlights the continued vulnerability of Ukrainian territory to missile strikes.

The confirmation by the ISW of Ukrainian tactical advances in the Kursk region, based on geolocated footage, suggests that Ukrainian forces have been able to achieve some success in pushing back Russian forces. However, the simultaneous Russian advances in the western and southern parts of Makhnovka indicate that the situation in the region remains fluid and contested.

The continued drone activity, as evidenced by the shooting down of a Ukrainian drone over the Bryansk region of Russia, underscores the ongoing threat of drone attacks and the importance of air defense capabilities for both sides.

The release of the new propaganda video from the group "Русский строй" titled "Рать" highlights the ongoing information warfare aspect of the conflict. The video's focus on logistical mobilization, air support and reconnaissance capabilities, troop readiness and experience, firepower projection, and the use of propaganda to boost morale suggests an attempt to showcase the strength and capabilities of the Russian military.

The analysis of the video from "НгП раZVедка" confirms the presence of Russian forces in an active combat zone and suggests that the soldier may be conducting reconnaissance or recording the aftermath of a battle. The video also serves as propaganda material and provides information about damaged military assets.

China's claim of a major breakthrough in laser communication "satellite-to-ground" could have significant implications for future technologies and potentially give China an edge over Elon Musk's Starlink.

The satellite image analysis reveals a strategically important location with a high-value palace/complex, potential avenues of approach, a key naval access point, and possible landing zones. The location's civilian nature but potential for military operations makes it a focal point for military planners.

The Ukrainian Navy's update indicates ongoing naval operations, with a focus on the Mediterranean Sea and continued use of the Kerch Strait by Russian forces. The presence of "Kalibr" missile carriers in the Black Sea and Mediterranean poses a significant threat.

The reports of Russian military operations in the Kursk region, including the actions of paratroopers and the use of drones, highlight the intensification of fighting in the area.

Zelensky's interview, where he criticizes the imposition of sanctions against Russia and expresses his frustration with the security guarantors of the Budapest Memorandum, reveals his dissatisfaction with the international response to the conflict and his efforts to seek stronger support for Ukraine.

The historical commemoration of the end of the Patriotic War in 1813 serves as a reminder of Russia's past military victories and the importance of patriotism and national unity.

The video analysis of Russian tank operations demonstrates the use of camouflage and surprise tactics in a snowy, wooded environment, highlighting the importance of armored warfare and close-range combat in the current conflict.

The video analyses of Zelensky's interviews reveal his strategic communication efforts to influence global policy, boost morale, and rally support for Ukraine. His use of derogatory language and coded speech underscores the ongoing information warfare and psychological dimension of the conflict.

The image analysis of the historical battle scene highlights the challenges of winter warfare and the importance of leadership, supply lines, and troop morale in such conditions.

The potential resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could have implications for international politics, although its direct impact on the military situation in Ukraine is unclear.

The reported ballistic missile test by North Korea adds to regional tensions but does not directly affect the situation in Ukraine.

The multiple overnight attacks on the Nikopol region of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, using both artillery and kamikaze drones, demonstrate Russia's continued targeting of Ukrainian territory and infrastructure. The successful interception of five drones by Ukrainian air defense forces highlights their effectiveness in countering aerial threats.

The new information about the destruction of 12 Ukrainian drones over Russian regions overnight and the Russian strikes on various Ukrainian regions further emphasizes the ongoing aerial warfare and the widespread nature of the conflict. Zelensky's interview continues to be a focal point of the information war, with Russian media using it to criticize him and portray him negatively.

The video showcasing the elimination of a group of Russian soldiers using FPV drones by the Ukrainian 110th Mechanized Brigade highlights the effectiveness of drone warfare and its impact on ground battles. The geolocation of battles in the Kursk region provides further insight into the areas where Ukrainian forces have been active and where the conflict is intensifying.

The reported shooting down of 10 Russian drones over Cherkasy Oblast by Ukrainian air defense forces demonstrates their continued vigilance and success in countering aerial threats. The confirmation of Russian advances in several locations, according to DeepState, underscores the deteriorating situation for Ukrainian forces on the ground.

The ISW's assessment of the encirclement of Pokrovsk as a key Russian operational goal, along with the reported activity of Russian troops east of the city, indicates a potential major offensive in the coming days or weeks. The 11th Guards Air Assault Army's air strikes on Ukrainian positions near Konstantinopol further highlight the ongoing air operations and their role in supporting ground advances.

The extensive attacks on 12 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, using a combination of aviation, drones, MLRS, and artillery, demonstrate the intensity of the conflict in that region and the widespread targeting of civilian areas.

The video analysis of the Ukrainian soldier's punishment for refusing to fight and wanting to surrender provides a glimpse into the internal dynamics of the Ukrainian military and the potential for low morale and dissent among the troops.

The new reports of increased activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction and the threat of Shahed drones in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts indicate a potential escalation in aerial attacks. Ukrainian air defense forces remain on high alert and are actively engaging these threats. The continued fighting in the Kursk region, as evidenced by the video from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS," highlights the ongoing engagement of Ukrainian Special Operations Forces against Russian troops and equipment. The use of snipers, engineers, artillery, and drone operators demonstrates the multifaceted approach of Ukrainian forces in this area.

Overall, the situation remains fluid and highly volatile, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum and Ukrainian forces facing mounting challenges. The increasing use of drones, the geographical expansion of the conflict, and the evolving geopolitical landscape contribute to the complexity of the situation. The coming days will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and the potential for further escalation.

Recommendations

1. Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, and immediate action is needed to prevent its complete capture. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Toretsk and Pokrovsk to counter