Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 5, 2025, 19:03 UTC

Executive Summary

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Russian forces have fully captured Kurakhove and are advancing towards Pokrovsk and Toretsk, posing a serious threat to Ukrainian defenses. The situation in Toretsk is particularly concerning, with reports indicating that less than 15% of the city remains under Ukrainian control. A major Ukrainian offensive is underway in the Kursk region, with both sides claiming successes, but with reports indicating very heavy Ukrainian losses, potentially up to 48,000 casualties. Drone warfare remains a defining feature, with both sides utilizing drones extensively, especially Russian FPV drones causing significant losses to Ukrainian forces. The increased use of drones and guided bombs by Russian forces across various oblasts underscores the evolving nature of the conflict.

Donetsk Region

Intense Fighting in Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk has significantly deteriorated for Ukrainian forces. Reports suggest that less than 15% of the city remains under their control, with Russian forces controlling the entire southern part. This marks a critical development, potentially leading to the complete capture of the city by Russian forces.
Russian Advances: Russian forces have made significant gains, capturing Kurakhove and advancing towards Pokrovsk, posing a direct threat to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. They report advances near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces are intensifying their attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. Positional fighting continues in the Krasnoarmiisk-Novoaleksandrivka direction.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are attempting to repel the Russian advance, reporting that they repelled a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushed Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Street fighting continues in Toretsk. Ukrainian forces report almost 110 battles today, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction.
Casualties: Ukrainian forces report repelling 30 Russian attacks and claim significant Russian losses.
Drone Warfare: Both sides are utilizing drones extensively in the Donetsk region. Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets in the area, including a command post near the Toretsk mine. FPV drones are being used extensively, particularly by Russian forces, causing significant damage to Ukrainian equipment and personnel. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting Russian positions with drones, resulting in multiple explosions and fires.
Tank Battle: A tank battle was reported in Yelyzavetivka, with a Russian tank column engaging two Ukrainian tanks, resulting in the destruction of one Ukrainian tank and the retreat of the other.
Krasnoarmeysk Direction: Russian forces continue their offensive operations to the south of Krasnoarmeysk and near Vozdvyzhenka, intensifying the winter campaign.
Chasiv Yar: Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant." Russian forces report they have taken new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar, advancing up to 1.5 km.
Southwest of Pokrovsk: Russian forces are making progress in Novovasylivka. There are reports of attacks in the direction of Peschanoe-Volkovo-Kotlino, indicating a possible plan to encircle Pokrovsk from the southwest.
Kurakhove: Russian forces have fully captured Kurakhove, solidifying their control in the region.
Zaporizhzhia Front: No significant changes, but Russian aviation and artillery continue to strike the enemy near Malaya Tokmachka and Orekhov.
Ivanivka: The situation in Ivanivka remains challenging, with no significant positive changes reported. Russian forces are attempting to establish a foothold in the village to facilitate further advances. Ukrainian forces are working to dislodge the enemy and prevent their crossing of the Zherebets River.
Kurakhiv Direction: Ukrainian 37th Marine Brigade used mines, artillery, FPV-drones, and other drones to repel Russian attacks on the Kurakhiv direction.

Kursk Region

Major Ukrainian Offensive: A major Ukrainian offensive is underway, with intense fighting reported near multiple settlements, including Leonidovo, Berdin, Bolshoe Soldatskoe, Martynovka, and Pushkarnoe.
Russian Counterattack: Russian forces report repelling a Ukrainian counterattack near Berdin, involving tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and a demining vehicle. They claim to have destroyed multiple Ukrainian vehicles, including a British Challenger tank. Russian forces are engaged in battles near Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Kruglenkoye, with ongoing assaults towards Viktorovka. The 106th Airborne Division is conducting active assault operations in the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
Russian Information Operations: Russian sources, including military bloggers, are actively reporting on the fighting in the Kursk region, highlighting Russian successes in repelling Ukrainian attacks and inflicting significant losses. The destruction of Ukrainian equipment, including tanks and armored vehicles, is emphasized. The narrative suggests a strong Russian defense and a failed Ukrainian offensive. The imagery and information released by the Russian military serves to bolster the perception of a successful defense and high Ukrainian losses.
Drone Warfare: Ukrainian and Russian forces report successful drone strikes on various targets in the region. Russian forces are using FPV drones extensively, reportedly inflicting significant losses on Ukrainian equipment and personnel. Russian drones are causing problems for Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian forces report that a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone was destroyed by a night hunting group.
Casualties: Russian sources claim the Ukrainian military has lost over 540 troops in the region. New reports indicate even heavier losses, reaching 48,000 casualties.
Continued Fighting: Fighting continues near Berdin, with Ukrainian forces attempting to advance. The situation remains fluid, with both sides engaged in active combat. Fighting is ongoing near Malaya Loknya, where a Russian drone strike targeted a Ukrainian vehicle and building. Russian forces are making advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka.
Ukrainian Units Identified: The Ukrainian units involved in the Kursk offensive are the 95th, 92nd, 22nd, 82nd, and 225th Brigades, although it is clarified that only parts of these brigades are involved, not their full strength.
Drone Attack on Kursk: Reports of a drone attack on Kursk, with claims of a "massive raid from several sides at once." Air defense systems were reportedly active, and residents were urged to take safety measures.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Russian forces have liberated Nadia. Russian forces are also attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.

Vremivka Direction

Russian Gains: Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka.

Zaporizhzhia Direction

Ukrainian Preparations: Ukrainian forces report they are amassing reserves for an offensive.
Drone Activity: Ukrainian forces report shooting down three Russian reconnaissance drones.
Artillery and Drone Strikes: Ukrainian artillery units report significant successes in the Vovchansk direction, claiming to have destroyed multiple enemy positions, equipment, and personnel.

Sumy Oblast

Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in the Sumy region, indicating a potential escalation in this area. Heavy airstrikes were also reported. Multiple new groups of Russian drones are entering Ukrainian airspace, particularly in Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) near Kupyansk and in the direction of Sumy.
Drone Activity: Multiple new groups of Russian drones are entering Ukrainian airspace, particularly in Sumy Oblast.
Casualties: 10 people, including 2 children, were injured as a result of a Russian airstrike on Svesa which destroyed 15 apartments.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Activity: Multiple new groups of Russian drones are entering Ukrainian airspace, particularly in Kharkiv Oblast. Increased drone activity in Kharkiv and Poltava regions, with drones moving west/southwest. Russian forces launched guided aerial bombs on the north and northeast of Kharkiv Oblast.
Drone Alert: Ukrainian Air Force reports an enemy drone approaching Lubny (Poltava Oblast) from the northeast.
Drone Movements: Reports of drone movements in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Chernihiv Oblasts. New reports indicate a group of Russian Shahed drones are on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, moving west. Another group of drones is in the north of Donetsk oblast, heading north. A new group of drones is in Dnipro, heading north. A group of drones is in the north of Dnipropetrovsk oblast, heading toward Poltava oblast. A group of drones is in Kharkiv oblast, heading toward Kharkiv.

Drone Warfare

Intensification: Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. A new record number of drones (10) were shot down over Leningrad, Pskov, Kursk, and Voronezh oblasts. 11 Ukrainian drones were shot down over the Belgorod and Kursk regions, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Russian Training: The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video showcasing a field school for UAV operators, highlighting efforts to improve drone capabilities and adapt to battlefield conditions.
Ukrainian Countermeasures: Ukrainian forces are effectively employing drones, particularly in conjunction with artillery strikes. Ukrainian forces report a 19-fold increase in the supply of drones to their units in 2024, compared to the previous year.
Drone Attacks: Ten drones were destroyed over the Leningrad, Pskov, Kursk, and Voronezh regions of Russia. Four drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region of Russia. Two additional enemy drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region during the day.
New Drone Targets: Russian drones are targeting Chernihiv and Nizhyn.
Drone Movements: Reports of drone movements in various regions, including Chernihiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, and Kirovohrad. Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down 7 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Other Key Developments

Troop Mobilization: The Washington Post reports that Ukraine has only managed to mobilize 200,000 troops in 2024, falling short of the 500,000 called for by former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny.
Environmental Concerns: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea have reached the coasts of Crimea, causing the deaths of dolphins.
Restoration of Services: "Diia" has restored access to several important services.
US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon. However, the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th.
Chinese Military: The Chinese military is reportedly studying the use of drones in the Ukraine conflict.
Turkish Naval Developments: Turkey has commenced the construction of an aircraft carrier (MUGEM), an air defense destroyer (TF-2000), and a submarine (MILDEN).
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest that German Chancellor Scholz may meet with Russian President Putin before February 23.
Apple CEO's Potential Donation to Trump's Inauguration: Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, is reportedly planning to donate $1 million to Donald Trump's inauguration.
Serbia's Energy Supply: Serbia is seeking new oil and gas supply routes due to the threat of US sanctions.
Legal Action in Russia: An investigation has been launched into an incident at a sports school in Vladimir, Russia, where a coach was recorded verbally abusing a young gymnast.
Uzbekistan Citizens Convicted: Two Uzbekistan citizens were convicted of mercenary activity for participating in the war in Ukraine.
Geopolitical Developments:
- Serbia is seeking new oil and gas supply routes due to the threat of US sanctions.
- Austria is reportedly open to forming a coalition with the far-right Freedom Party.
- The Biden administration intends to sell $8 billion worth of weapons to Israel.
Information Operations:
- Russian media is accused of building a narrative of victory and exaggerating its achievements.
- Ukrainian officials are criticized for their response to the situation in the Kursk region.
- Reports of a drone attack on Kursk highlight the ongoing information war, with both sides using social media to disseminate their narratives.
Czech Republic Military Aid: The Czech Republic issued 40 permits for Czech citizens to fight for Ukraine in the past year, but rejected nearly twice as many applications.
Russian Military Claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have repelled a Ukrainian attack in the Kursk region, destroying 11 Ukrainian drones.
Ukrainian Military App: The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is developing a military ID within the "Army+" app, which will serve as a unified electronic document for all military personnel.
New Ukrainian Counteroffensive: Reports indicate a new Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region, with the enemy reportedly deploying battalions with tanks. The offensive is said to have been unsuccessful, with significant losses in equipment and personnel.
Information Leak: A Ukrainian blogger is accused of leaking information about the counteroffensive, potentially compromising its effectiveness.
Drone Warfare in Kursk: Images and reports suggest heavy use of FPV drones by Russian forces in the Kursk region, resulting in significant losses for Ukrainian forces.
Situation in Toretsk: Reports indicate that Russian forces control a significant portion of Toretsk (formerly Dzerzhinsk), with Ukrainian forces holding less than 15% of the city.
Casualty Evacuation: A video reportedly shows a failed attempt by Ukrainian forces to evacuate a wounded soldier in the Toretsk area, with the evacuation team being targeted and destroyed by Russian drones.
Propaganda and Morale: Both sides are using media to portray their successes and demoralize the enemy. The Ukrainian side highlights the potential negative impact of a "bad" peace deal, while the Russian side emphasizes their military successes and the high cost of the war for Ukraine.
International Negotiations: The Financial Times discusses the possibility of a negotiated settlement, highlighting the challenges and risks involved. The article suggests that a "bad" deal could weaken Ukraine and embolden Russia, while a "good" deal would require significant military aid to Ukraine and strong security guarantees.
Sumy Border Situation: The Sumy Regional Military Administration reports no crossings of the Ukrainian border by Russian troops in the Sumy region, but acknowledges the presence of Russian sabotage groups.

Strategic Analysis

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and dynamic. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and now Toretsk, posing a serious threat to Ukrainian defenses. The new Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, while met with resistance, demonstrates Ukraine's willingness to engage in offensive operations and is now confirmed to be a major offensive. The situation in Kursk is particularly noteworthy, with both sides claiming successes. The conflicting reports and internal disagreements among Russian sources suggest uncertainty about the true state of affairs. The Ukrainian offensive in this area, coupled with reports of Russian troop movements in Sumy Oblast, indicates a potential widening of the conflict along the border. The reported destruction of numerous Ukrainian drones over Russian territory, particularly in the Belgorod and Kursk regions, highlights the intensification of aerial warfare and Russia's efforts to counter Ukrainian drone attacks. The alleged information leak by a Ukrainian blogger about the counteroffensive in the Kursk region raises serious concerns about operational security and the potential impact on the effectiveness of Ukrainian military operations. The use of FPV drones by Russian forces, as evidenced by the images from the Kursk region, underscores the evolving nature of the conflict and the increasing importance of drone warfare.

Drone warfare continues to be a defining feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones extensively. The Russian emphasis on training UAV operators and modifying drones with 3D-printed parts indicates an attempt to enhance their drone capabilities. Ukrainian forces are also effectively employing drones, particularly in conjunction with artillery strikes.

The dispute over Ukrainian troop numbers raises questions about Ukraine's ability to sustain a prolonged war of attrition. The reported tank battle in Yelyzavetivka and the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region highlight the intensity of the conflict along the border areas.

The environmental damage caused by the oil spills in the Black Sea adds an environmental dimension to the conflict and could lead to increased international pressure on Russia.

The continued fighting in multiple regions and the high level of drone activity suggest that the conflict is far from over and that both sides are committed to achieving their strategic objectives. The coming days and weeks will likely see further developments, with the potential for increased escalation and significant shifts in the balance of power. The new alert regarding a drone threat to Lubny indicates a potential expansion of Russian drone operations, while Turkey's naval developments could significantly impact the regional balance of power, particularly in the Black Sea. Reports of a potential meeting between Scholz and Putin, as well as Tim Cook's planned donation to Trump's inauguration, add further complexity to the geopolitical landscape. Serbia's search for new energy supply routes and the legal action in Russia are also noteworthy developments. The discussion of a potential peace deal, as outlined in the Financial Times article, highlights the difficult choices facing Ukraine and its allies. The potential for a "bad" deal that weakens Ukraine and emboldens Russia is a significant concern, while a "good" deal would require substantial military aid and security guarantees. The situation in Toretsk is particularly concerning, with Russian forces reportedly controlling a significant portion of the city. The reported failed evacuation attempt and the heavy use of drones in the area underscore the challenges facing Ukrainian forces.

Recommendations

Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, and immediate action is needed to prevent its complete capture by Russian forces. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Toretsk and Pokrovsk to counter the Russian advance.
Address the information leak: Investigate the alleged leak of information about the Kursk counteroffensive and take appropriate measures to prevent future breaches of operational security.
Enhance counter-drone capabilities: Given the increasing use of FPV drones by Russian forces, prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate their effectiveness.
Secure critical infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly nuclear power plants, to prevent potential catastrophic incidents. Deploy additional air defense systems and security personnel to these facilities.
Maintain offensive pressure in Kursk: Continue to exert offensive pressure on Russian forces in the Kursk region to disrupt their operations and prevent them from concentrating their forces in the Donetsk region. Exploit any successes achieved in the offensive.
Address troop mobilization challenges: Take steps to address any shortcomings in troop mobilization efforts to ensure sufficient manpower for sustained operations.
Strengthen international support: Seek further military and financial assistance from international partners to sustain the war effort. Emphasize the need for advanced weapons systems, including long-range missiles, air defense systems, and counter-drone technology.
Counter Russian information operations: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support. Exploit any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media to sow confusion and undermine morale among Russian forces and the public.
Logistical Preparedness: Ensure the availability of sufficient supplies, ammunition, and equipment to sustain operations. Anticipate and mitigate potential logistical challenges, particularly in the face of increased drone attacks and potential disruptions to supply lines.
Intelligence Gathering: Enhance intelligence-gathering capabilities to monitor Russian troop movements, identify potential threats, and anticipate future actions. Utilize all available sources, including satellite imagery, signals intelligence, and human intelligence. Pay particular attention to the situation in Sumy Oblast and any signs of further escalation or Russian incursions.
Training and Adaptation: Continuously train troops on the latest tactics and technologies, with a particular focus on drone warfare and counter-drone measures. Adapt strategies and tactics based on the evolving nature of the conflict and lessons learned from operational outcomes.
Mitigate Environmental Damage: Take steps to address the environmental damage caused by the oil spills in the Black Sea. Seek international assistance in cleanup efforts and highlight the ecological consequences of the conflict.
Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media to sow confusion and undermine morale among Russian forces and the public.
Enhance Counter-Tank Capabilities: Deploy additional anti-tank weapons and units to areas where armored engagements are likely, such as Yelyzavetivka and other points along the front lines.
Monitor and Respond to Developments: Closely monitor the situation in all regions, particularly in areas where Russian forces are making advances or where Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations. Be prepared to adjust strategies and redeploy forces as needed to respond to emerging threats and opportunities.
Prepare for Potential Escalation: Given the increased drone activity in Sumy Oblast and the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, be prepared for the possibility of the conflict widening along the border. Develop contingency plans for responding to potential Russian incursions or escalations in these areas.
Maintain Operational Security: Emphasize the importance of operational security to prevent Russian forces from gaining intelligence on Ukrainian troop movements, deployments, and intentions.
Prioritize Troop Welfare: Ensure that troops are adequately equipped, supplied, and supported to maintain morale and combat effectiveness. Address any issues related to troop welfare, including medical care, rest, and rotation.
Develop a Clear Strategic Vision: Ensure that all military operations are aligned with a clear strategic vision and long-term objectives. Regularly assess the effectiveness of current strategies and make adjustments as needed to achieve desired outcomes.
Foster Innovation: Encourage innovation and the development of new technologies and tactics to counter emerging threats and maintain a competitive advantage. Invest in research and development, particularly in areas such as drone warfare, counter-drone measures, and electronic warfare.
Prepare for a major Ukrainian offensive in Kursk Oblast: Given the significant concentration of Ukrainian forces in the area and the ongoing fighting, prepare for a potentially large-scale Ukrainian offensive aimed at achieving significant territorial gains or strategic objectives.
Enhance defenses in Sumy Oblast: Due to the reports of Russian troop movements and drone activity in Sumy Oblast, reinforce defenses and prepare for potential incursions or escalations in this region. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems as needed.
Counter Russian advances in Donetsk region: Given the significant Russian advances around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk, prioritize efforts to halt their progress and stabilize the front lines. Deploy reinforcements, enhance defensive positions, and conduct counterattacks where feasible.
Exploit Russian vulnerabilities in Vremivka direction: With Russian forces capturing Storozheve and forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka, explore opportunities to exploit any vulnerabilities in their positions and conduct counteroffensives to regain lost territory.
Address potential widening of conflict along the border: Given the increased drone activity in Sumy Oblast and the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, prepare for the possibility of the conflict widening along the border. Develop contingency plans for responding to potential Russian incursions or escalations in these areas.
Enhance cooperation with international partners: Given the reported meeting between Scholz and Putin, and the potential donation from Tim Cook to Trump's inauguration, strengthen diplomatic efforts with international partners to ensure continued support for Ukraine and address any potential shifts in policy or allegiances.
Monitor and respond to developments in other regions: While the focus is on the current hot spots, continue to monitor the situation in other regions, such as Zaporizhzhia, where Ukrainian forces are reportedly amassing reserves for an offensive. Be prepared to adjust strategies and redeploy forces as needed to respond to emerging threats and opportunities.
Address environmental concerns: Given the reported oil spills in the Black Sea and the deaths of dolphins, take steps to address the environmental damage and seek international assistance in cleanup efforts. Highlight the ecological consequences of the conflict to garner international support and pressure on Russia.
Prepare for potential shifts in the geopolitical landscape: With the reported meeting between Scholz and Putin, and the potential donation from Tim Cook to Trump's inauguration, anticipate any potential shifts in the geopolitical landscape that could impact the conflict. Develop contingency plans for various scenarios and strengthen diplomatic efforts to maintain international support for Ukraine.
Counter Russian information operations: Given the conflicting reports and internal disagreements within Russian media, counter Russian information operations by providing accurate and timely information to the public. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support.
Address potential impact of Turkish naval developments: With Turkey's construction of an aircraft carrier, air defense destroyer, and submarine, assess the potential impact on the regional balance of power, particularly in the Black Sea. Develop strategies to counter any potential threats and strengthen cooperation with other regional partners.
Prepare for potential escalation in drone warfare: Given the increasing use of drones by both sides, anticipate further escalation in drone warfare. Invest in counter-drone technologies and develop tactics to counter the threat posed by enemy drones.
Address potential humanitarian crisis: With the ongoing fighting and displacement of civilians, prepare for a potential humanitarian crisis. Coordinate with international organizations and NGOs to provide assistance to affected populations and address any potential refugee flows.
Monitor and respond to developments in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Given the ongoing escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, monitor any potential spillover effects or implications for the situation in Ukraine. Be prepared to adjust strategies and diplomatic efforts as needed to address any potential regional instability.
Enhance cybersecurity measures: With the increasing use of technology in warfare, enhance cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure, communication networks, and sensitive data from cyber attacks and espionage.
Address potential economic consequences: Given the impact of the conflict on the global economy, particularly in areas such as energy and food security, develop strategies to mitigate any potential economic consequences for Ukraine. Seek international support to address any potential economic challenges.
Prepare for potential shifts in Russian strategy: With the reported losses of North Korean soldiers in the Russian army and their replacement with Russian soldiers, anticipate any potential shifts in Russian strategy or tactics. Monitor troop movements and deployments to identify any changes in their approach to the conflict.
Address potential impact of new technologies: With the reported development of a military ID within the "Army+" app by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, assess the potential impact of this technology on military operations and logistics.
Counter the narrative of a "bad" peace deal: Given the concerns raised by the Financial Times article, develop a communication strategy to counter the narrative of a "bad" peace deal that could weaken Ukraine and embolden Russia. Emphasize the importance of a strong and just peace that ensures Ukraine's security and territorial integrity.
Prepare for potential negotiations: While the current focus is on military operations, prepare for potential negotiations with Russia. Develop a clear set of objectives and principles for any peace talks, and coordinate with international partners to ensure a united front.
Address the reported destruction in Toretsk: Given the extensive damage reported in Toretsk, assess the humanitarian needs of the civilian population and provide assistance where possible. Plan for the eventual reconstruction and rehabilitation of the city.
Monitor the situation in Sumy Oblast: Given the reported absence of Russian troop crossings but the presence of sabotage groups, enhance surveillance and reconnaissance efforts in the Sumy region to detect and counter any potential incursions.
Respond to the reported drone attack in Kharkiv Oblast: With six people, including four children, reportedly injured in a drone attack in Kharkiv Oblast, provide medical assistance to the victims and investigate the incident. Enhance air defense measures in the region to prevent future attacks.
Address the reported infrastructure failures in Russia: While not directly related to the military situation in Ukraine, the reported infrastructure failures in various Russian cities could have implications for Russia's ability to sustain the war effort. Monitor the situation and assess any potential impact on Russia's logistical and economic capabilities.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of guided bombs: With reports of increased use of guided bombs by Russian forces, develop and deploy countermeasures to protect Ukrainian troops and infrastructure. This may include enhancing air defense systems, improving camouflage and concealment techniques, and developing tactics to counter the threat.
Address the reported information leak regarding the Kursk offensive: Conduct a thorough investigation into the alleged leak of information about the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region. Identify the source of the leak and take appropriate measures to prevent future breaches of operational security. Implement stricter protocols for handling sensitive information and reinforce the importance of information security among all personnel.
Monitor and counter Russian information operations: Given the conflicting reports and narratives emerging from both sides, closely monitor Russian information operations and develop strategies to counter their influence. Provide accurate and timely information to the public, highlighting Ukrainian successes and Russian losses. Emphasize the importance of relying on trusted sources and avoiding the spread of misinformation.
Prepare for potential shifts in international support: With reports of a potential meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin, as well as Tim Cook's planned donation to Trump's inauguration, anticipate any potential shifts in international support for Ukraine. Strengthen diplomatic efforts with key allies to ensure continued military and financial assistance.
Address the reported casualties in the Kursk offensive: Given the reported heavy losses suffered by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk offensive, assess the impact on morale and combat effectiveness. Provide support to the affected units, reinforce their positions, and adjust tactics as needed to minimize future casualties.
Enhance cooperation with international partners on drone warfare: Given the increasing importance of drone warfare, enhance cooperation with international partners to share intelligence, develop countermeasures, and acquire advanced drone technologies. Collaborate on training and exercises to improve drone capabilities and counter-drone measures.
Monitor and respond to developments in the Middle East: With reports of Israel not receiving a list of hostages from Hamas and the ongoing conflict, monitor any potential implications for the situation in Ukraine. Assess any potential shifts in regional dynamics or resource allocation that could impact the conflict.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of guided missiles: With reports of a guided missile flying through Bereznehuvate towards Novyi Buh and another in the eastern part of Mykolaiv Oblast, enhance air defense capabilities in the region. Deploy additional air defense systems and improve early warning systems to detect and intercept incoming missiles.
Address the reported use of FPV drones by Russian forces: Given the reported effectiveness of Russian FPV drones in causing losses to Ukrainian forces, develop and implement countermeasures to mitigate their impact. This may include deploying electronic warfare systems to jam or disrupt drone signals, improving camouflage and concealment techniques, and developing tactics to counter drone attacks.
Enhance cooperation with the Czech Republic on military aid: With the Czech Republic issuing permits for its citizens to fight for Ukraine, explore opportunities for further cooperation in military training, equipment, and intelligence sharing.
Monitor and respond to developments in Belarus: Given the reported sentencing of the mother of a Belarusian political prisoner for "extremism," monitor any potential implications for the situation in Ukraine. Assess any potential shifts in Belarus's stance or actions that could impact the conflict.
Prepare for potential shifts in the political landscape in Austria: With reports of Austria being open to forming a coalition with the far-right Freedom Party, monitor any potential implications for European support for Ukraine. Engage with Austrian officials to emphasize the importance of continued assistance and solidarity.
Address the reported impact of sanctions on Russia's ability to obtain components: While sanctions are reportedly having an impact, Russia continues to obtain necessary components and resources for its military industry. Strengthen international efforts to enforce sanctions and close any loopholes that allow Russia to circumvent restrictions.
Monitor and respond to developments in the energy sector: With Serbia seeking new oil and gas supply routes due to the threat of US sanctions, monitor any potential implications for the European energy market and Ukraine's energy security.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs): With reports of Russian forces using KABs, particularly in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions, enhance air defense capabilities and develop strategies to counter their use. This may include deploying additional air defense systems, improving early warning systems, and developing tactics to mitigate the impact of KAB attacks.
Address the reported destruction of infrastructure in the Zaporizhzhia region: With several infrastructure facilities reportedly damaged in the Zaporizhzhia region, assess the impact on civilian life and military operations. Provide assistance for repairs and reconstruction, and enhance the protection of critical infrastructure in the region.
Monitor and respond to developments in the information space: With both sides actively using media and social media to shape narratives and influence public opinion, continue to monitor and counter disinformation campaigns. Provide accurate and timely information to the public, highlighting Ukrainian successes and Russian losses.
Prepare for potential shifts in Russian tactics: With reports of Russian forces adapting their tactics, such as using drones more effectively and targeting civilian infrastructure, remain vigilant and adapt Ukrainian strategies accordingly. Continuously assess Russian actions and develop countermeasures to address any new or evolving threats.
Address the reported use of North Korean soldiers by Russian forces: While the presence of North Korean soldiers in the Russian army is unconfirmed, monitor any further reports and assess the potential implications. Investigate the circumstances of their alleged deployment and any potential impact on the conflict.
Enhance cooperation with international partners on intelligence sharing: Given the complex and evolving nature of the conflict, strengthen cooperation with international partners on intelligence sharing, particularly regarding drone warfare, Russian troop movements, and potential shifts in strategy.
Prepare for potential long-term consequences of the conflict: With the ongoing fighting, displacement of civilians, and damage to infrastructure, prepare for the potential long-term consequences of the conflict. Develop plans for post-conflict reconstruction, humanitarian assistance, and addressing the social and economic impacts of the war.
Continue to monitor and assess the situation in Toretsk: With reports of Russian forces controlling a significant portion of Toretsk, closely monitor the situation and assess any further developments. Prepare for potential counteroffensives to regain control of the city and provide support to any remaining Ukrainian forces in the area.
Address the reported use of "human shields" by Ukrainian forces: While the claim of Ukrainian forces using civilians as "human shields" is unconfirmed and likely part of Russian propaganda, investigate any such allegations and take appropriate measures to ensure the protection of civilians in conflict zones.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of chemical weapons: With reports of Russian forces potentially using chemical weapons, enhance preparedness and response capabilities. Train troops on chemical defense measures, equip them with protective gear, and develop protocols for dealing with chemical attacks.
Monitor and respond to developments in the diplomatic arena: With reports of potential meetings between world leaders and discussions of peace negotiations, monitor any diplomatic developments that could impact the conflict. Engage with international partners to ensure that Ukraine's interests are represented and protected in any potential negotiations.
Address the reported increase in drone activity in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions: With multiple reports of increased drone activity in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, enhance air defense capabilities and deploy additional counter-drone systems to the area. Increase surveillance and reconnaissance efforts to detect and intercept enemy drones.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of guided missiles: With reports of a guided missile flying over Ukrainian territory, enhance air defense capabilities and develop strategies to counter the threat. Deploy additional air defense systems, improve early warning systems, and coordinate with international partners to acquire advanced anti-missile technologies. 72

Situation Report