---

Major Updates on the Military Situation in Ukraine

As of January 5, 2025, 06:33 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine continues to be highly volatile, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure on multiple fronts. The Donetsk region remains a focal point, with Russian troops making gains in Kurakhove and advancing towards Pokrovsk. Drone warfare remains a dominant tactic, with both sides employing UAVs for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces are actively using drones to counter Russian advances and are developing countermeasures to Russian electronic warfare, including fiber-optic guided FPV drones. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging hostile drones and guided bombs, with significant activity reported across various oblasts.

Key Developments

Intensified Ground Operations and Russian Advances

• Donetsk Region:
  • Russian forces have reportedly fully captured Kurakhove, with assault groups raising the Russian flag on the western outskirts of the city. This marks a significant gain for Russian forces in the region.
  • Russian troops continue their advance towards Pokrovsk, with reports of Ukrainian forces attempting to push back Russian forces from their positions near the city.
  • Several groups of Ukrainian soldiers were ambushed near Velyka Novosilka in the south of Donetsk, with some casualties and four soldiers captured.
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Shevchenko near Kurakhove.
• Kursk Region:
  • Fighting has intensified in the Kursk region, particularly near the village of Leonidovo. Russian forces are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces on all fronts in the region.
  • The village of Makhnovka in the Kursk region has seen its control lines clarified, with a slight advantage for Ukrainian forces.

Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

• Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare continues to be a major factor in the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
  • Ukrainian drone units report successful strikes on Russian armored vehicles and a Starlink terminal.
  • Russian forces report destroying a Ukrainian BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicle and an M80A in the Kursk border region using drones.
  • Russian forces used drones to destroy Ukrainian automotive transport carrying ammunition at night in the Polozhskoe direction.
  • Over the past day, 372 drones of various modifications were used by Russian forces to attack Mariivka, Kamianske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novoandriivka, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, and Novodarivka.
  • Russian forces launched 44 airstrikes, dropping 72 guided aerial bombs (KABs) on Ukrainian positions and settlements.
• Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defenses are actively countering hostile drones and guided bombs. Overnight, four enemy UAVs were shot down in the Kryvyi Rih and Nikopol regions.
• Guided Bomb Attacks: Russian tactical aviation continues to launch guided aerial bombs, particularly targeting the Sumy and Chernihiv regions. The city of Semenivka in Chernihiv Oblast suffered from airstrikes, resulting in at least seven injuries and damage to civilian infrastructure, including an administrative building, a hospital, a cafe, residential buildings, and civilian vehicles.

Geopolitical Developments

• Kazan Airport Restrictions: Temporary flight restrictions were imposed at Kazan airport due to a drone threat, but the reason for the threat was not specified.
• Belarusian Political Prisoner: The Brest Regional Court sentenced the mother of a political prisoner to two years of restricted freedom for assisting extremist activities by giving an interview to an opposition TV channel in 2021.

Other Significant Developments

• Casualty Reports: Ukrainian sources report significant Russian casualties, with an estimated 1,730 personnel lost in the past day, along with the destruction of 7 tanks, 26 armored fighting vehicles, 25 artillery systems, 91 tactical-level UAVs, 97 automotive vehicles, and 2 units of special equipment.
• Ukrainian Military Reports: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 179 combat clashes over the past day, with Russian forces actively using aviation and artillery in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions.
• Infrastructure Damage: Several infrastructure facilities were damaged in the Zaporizhzhia region, according to the head of the regional administration.
• Military Equipment: A British FV101 Scorpion light tank, modified with a 14.5-mm KPVT machine gun and equipped with communication and electronic warfare devices, was observed in service with the 1st Brigade "Bureviy" of the National Guard of Ukraine.
• Fundraising for Missing Soldier: A campaign has been launched to locate a soldier named Igor, whose personal belongings, including letters from his wife and drawings from his daughters, were found in a hospital in Belgorod after an evacuation.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. The capture of Kurakhove by Russian forces is a significant development, solidifying their control in the Donetsk region and potentially opening up new avenues of advance towards Pokrovsk. The intensification of fighting in the Kursk region, particularly near Leonidovo and Makhnovka, indicates a broadening of the conflict zone. Drone warfare continues to be a central element, with both sides adapting and innovating. Ukrainian forces are developing fiber-optic guided FPV drones to counter Russian electronic warfare, while Russian forces continue to launch drone strikes across multiple oblasts. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, particularly in the Belgorod region, demonstrate a capacity to strike beyond the immediate frontline.

The reported destruction of a significant number of drones over the Rostov region indicates the intensity of aerial engagements. The reported destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles and the capture of Nadezhda in the Luhansk region underscore the ongoing ground battles and Russian territorial gains. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in Chasiv Yar by Russian paratroopers signifies continued pressure in that area. The new reports of Russian advances in Toretsk, Shevchenko, near Dalne, Vozdvyzhenka, and Baranivka further highlight the deteriorating situation for Ukrainian forces.

Geopolitically, the temporary flight restrictions at Kazan airport due to a drone threat suggest a potential expansion of the conflict's impact within Russia. The sentencing of the mother of a Belarusian political prisoner highlights the ongoing repression in Belarus and its connection to the broader regional context. The new reports of Russian airstrikes on Semenivka in the Chernihiv region, resulting in civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure, underscore the continued threat to civilian populations.

The Ukrainian General Staff's report of 179 combat clashes and significant Russian losses, along with the detailed account of Russian airstrikes and drone attacks, paints a picture of a relentless and multifaceted conflict. The use of guided aerial bombs by Russian forces, particularly in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions, indicates a continued effort to target Ukrainian defenses and civilian infrastructure. The Ukrainian Defense Forces of the South report significant enemy losses, including personnel, artillery systems, armored vehicles, and electronic warfare equipment, demonstrating ongoing resistance and counterattacks.

Overall, the situation remains fluid, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum and Ukrainian forces facing mounting challenges. The increasing use of drones, the geographical expansion of the conflict, and the evolving geopolitical landscape contribute to the complexity of the situation. The conflict's broader impact, including long-term environmental damage and humanitarian consequences, continues to unfold alongside the intense military engagements.