Major Updates on the Military Situation in Ukraine (January 5, 2025, 05:02 UTC)

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine is characterized by a deteriorating security environment for Ukrainian forces, marked by intensified Russian offensives in the Donetsk, Chernihiv, and Sumy Oblasts. Russian forces are employing a multifaceted approach, combining missile and drone strikes with ground assaults. The conflict is increasingly impacting Russian territory, with Ukrainian drone attacks reported in multiple regions. Drone warfare remains a dominant and evolving tactic, with Ukrainian forces developing countermeasures to Russian electronic warfare. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that naval aviators destroyed three Russian "Shahed" drones overnight.

Key Developments

Intensified Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

Extensive Russian Drone Activity: Russian drones are active across multiple oblasts, including Kremenchuk, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk.
Ukrainian Drone Attacks Inside Russia: Ukrainian drone attacks persist within Russian territory, with recent damage reported in the Rostov region and 13 drones neutralized over the Bryansk region. Three settlements in Belgorod Oblast were also attacked, with no reported casualties. Russian sources claim 61 drones were shot down over five regions overnight, with 37 over Rostov Oblast alone.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging hostile drones, particularly in Zhytomyr. Anti-aircraft missile units from the "Center" group reportedly destroyed two Ukrainian drones near Pokrovsk.
Ukrainian Drone Advancements: Ukraine is finalizing tests on fiber-optic guided FPV drones to counter Russian electronic warfare.
Escalation in Northern Ukraine: The Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts are experiencing significant escalation, with Russian tactical aviation posing a threat of airstrikes. Semenivka in Chernihiv Oblast suffered from airstrikes, resulting in four injuries and damage to civilian infrastructure. Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs have been reported in Sumy Oblast.
Russian FPV Drone Operations: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drones targeting Ukrainian infantry in Makhnovka, Kursk region, and Ukrainian equipment near Pokrovsk. A BMP-1 and a mortar of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were destroyed somewhere on the front.

Ground Operations and Engagements

Donetsk Region:
- Russian forces are solidifying positions in Kurakhove (with reports indicating approximately 80% control) and advancing towards Pokrovsk. The imminent fall of Kurakhove is a major concern.
- A Ukrainian armored vehicle was reportedly destroyed near Zelenivka, south of Kurakhove, and another near Pokrovsk.
- Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced up to 1.5 km east of Stupochki and secured new positions near Chasiv Yar.
- The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs on the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
- Nadezhda (Nadiya), Luhansk Region: Russian forces have captured Nadezhda, with reports of significant infrastructure damage. Intense fighting is reported in the area, with Novoyehorivka partially under Russian control. Russian military personnel report that only four settlements remain to be liberated for complete control over the Luhansk region.
- Chasiv Yar: Russian Airborne Forces from the 98th Airborne Division reportedly destroyed a temporary deployment point of Ukrainian troops.
Kursk Region:
- Russian forces, particularly paratroopers, suppressed Ukrainian firing points in the border areas using 2S9 "Nona-S" self-propelled mortars.

Geopolitical Developments

NATO Concerns: NATO expressed concerns about the UK's anti-missile defense capabilities.
US-Russia Relations: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated the US has avoided direct conflict with Russia despite nuclear threats, acknowledging Russia's "hybrid attacks" in Europe but downplaying the risk of direct conflict.
Internal Ukrainian Issues: Reports indicate Ukrainians fleeing from military or law enforcement service, suggesting internal issues related to mobilization or morale.
Poland's "Eastern Shield": Poland is building fortifications on its borders with Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, citing concerns about potential Russian aggression. However, a Polish expert has criticized the effectiveness of these fortifications, suggesting the need for further expansion and testing against Ukrainian drones.
Gas Transit: The first week of 2025 marked the termination of Russian gas transit through Ukraine to Europe, initiated by Kyiv. This is seen as an attempt to force certain European countries to buy US LNG, aligning with Washington's goals to sever Europe-Russia economic ties and weaken the EU.

Other Significant Developments

Visual Evidence: Photographic evidence confirms damage in Semenivka, Chernihiv Oblast.
Su-57 Pilot Interview: An interview with a Russian Su-57 test pilot highlighted his positive reception in China, potentially indicating closer military cooperation.
Modified Ukrainian Drones: Photos and videos show Ukrainian forces using modified drones.
Satellite and Drone Footage Analysis: A satellite image of a residential area, likely Makhnovka in Kursk region, and drone footage from the same area confirm ongoing urban warfare.
Video Analysis: Videos from the Russian Ministry of Defense showcase a Russian Mi-28HM helicopter disrupting a rotation of Ukrainian units in the Kursk border region, anti-tank guided missile engagements, humanitarian aid distribution, and naval missile launches.
Russian Naval Presence: Ukrainian Navy reports indicate a concentration of Russian naval assets in the Mediterranean Sea (7 ships, 2 missile carriers, 22 Kalibr missiles), with minimal presence in the Black Sea (1 ship, 1 missile carrier, 0 ready missiles) and no presence in the Azov Sea. No ship passage through the Kerch Strait was reported. The Ukrainian General Staff confirms these figures.
Russian 6th Generation Fighter Development: Russia claims to be advancing the development of a 6th generation fighter jet.
Expulsion of Foreigners from Russia: Starting February 5, Russian МВД officials will have the authority to expel foreigners for various offenses.
Tank Inventory: Analysis of open-source intelligence suggests significant reductions in Russian tank reserves, with an estimated 2,300 tanks remaining in varying conditions.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine continues to be highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. The escalation in the Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, marked by intense missile and drone attacks, is causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, with the near-complete capture of Kurakhove and the advance towards Pokrovsk posing a substantial threat. The destruction of a Ukrainian BMP-1 and mortar somewhere on the front further adds to Ukrainian losses.

Drone warfare remains a central element of the conflict, with both sides adapting and innovating. Ukrainian forces are developing fiber-optic guided FPV drones to counter Russian electronic warfare, while Russian forces continue to launch drone strikes across multiple oblasts. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, particularly in the Belgorod region, demonstrate a capacity to strike beyond the immediate frontline.

The destruction of a significant number of drones over the Rostov region indicates the intensity of aerial engagements. The reported destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles and the capture of Nadezhda in the Luhansk region underscore the ongoing ground battles and Russian territorial gains. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in Chasiv Yar by Russian paratroopers signifies continued pressure in that area.

Geopolitically, NATO's concerns about the UK's defense capabilities and Poland's "Eastern Shield" initiative highlight the broader regional implications of the conflict. The concentration of Russian naval forces in the Mediterranean Sea suggests a potential strategic shift or preparation for future operations. The termination of Russian gas transit through Ukraine adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape.

The new authority granted to Russian officials to expel foreigners could potentially impact the demographics and social dynamics within Russia. Russia's claim of advancing 6th-generation fighter development, if true, could have long-term implications for the balance of air power. The analysis of tank inventories suggests a significant depletion of Russian armored forces, although the remaining operational capacity is uncertain.

Overall, the situation remains fluid, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum and Ukrainian forces facing mounting challenges. The increasing use of drones, the geographical expansion of the conflict, and the evolving geopolitical landscape contribute to the complexity of the situation. The conflict's broader impact, including long-term environmental damage and humanitarian consequences, continues to unfold alongside the intense military engagements.

Situation Report