Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 5, 2025, 01:02 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine is marked by a continued escalation, particularly in the Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts. Russian forces are intensifying their attacks using a combination of missile strikes, drone attacks, and ground assaults. The Donetsk region remains a focal point of the conflict, with Russian forces making incremental gains around Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging Russian drones and missiles across multiple oblasts. Russian forces have launched strikes in Poltava, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Sumy, and Chernihiv Oblasts, including missile strikes on Kramatorsk.

Key Updates

Intensified Drone Warfare

• New Drone Movements:
  • A drone is approaching Kremenchuk.
  • Two drones are north of Zhytomyr, heading southwest.
  • One drone is over Nizhyn.
  • A drone is in the center of Chernihiv Oblast, heading east.
  • A drone is in the center of Zhytomyr Oblast, heading west/southwest.
  • A drone is northwest of Poltava Oblast, heading southwest.
  • A drone is in the northeast of Poltava Oblast, with a southwesterly course.
  • A drone is in the west of Kharkiv Oblast, with a western course.
  • A drone is in the north of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a western course.
  • A drone is in the north of Sumy Oblast, heading southeast.
• Drone Attacks in Russia:
  • Debris from drones damaged residential buildings and vehicles in the Rostov region during a repelled attack. No casualties or injuries were reported.
  • Thirteen Ukrainian drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region. No casualties or damage were reported.
• Air Defense Activation: Ukrainian air defenses are active in Zhytomyr, engaging an enemy drone approaching from the north.

Escalation in Northern Ukraine

• Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts are experiencing a significant escalation in military activity. Russian tactical aviation is active in the northeast, posing a threat of airstrikes to frontline regions. Guided aerial bombs have been launched in Sumy Oblast, with specific reports of strikes in the direction of Bilopillia/Vorozhba.
• Semenivka in Chernihiv Oblast suffered from airstrikes, with 4 guided aerial bombs dropped on the town. Four people were injured. The attack targeted the central part of the town, damaging an administrative building, hospital, cafe, residential buildings, and civilian vehicles. Search and rescue operations are ongoing.

Ground Operations and Engagements

• Donetsk Region:
  • Russian forces are consolidating their positions in Kurakhove and pushing towards Pokrovsk.
  • Russian forces reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Zelenivka, south of Kurakhove.
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly made advances up to 1.5 km east of Stupochki and occupied new positions on the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal near Chasiv Yar.

Geopolitical Developments

• There is a new trend in Ukraine of people running away when they see military or law enforcement.
• The German Interior Minister intends to revoke the protected status of Syrian refugees, except for those employed or in education and unwilling to return to Syria.
• The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Ukrainian forces have regained some positions near Kreminna and likely maintain positions near Kurakhove. The report also notes Russian advances near Kreminna, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.

Other Significant Developments

• The Ukrainian Air Force has provided updated information on the movement of enemy drones.
• A video shows the nighttime recovery of a damaged SUV in an unspecified location in Ukraine.
• A video shows military personnel on a street in an unspecified location.
• Photos show damage to civilian infrastructure in Semenivka, Chernihiv Oblast.
• An interview with a Russian Su-57 test pilot was published, detailing his positive reception in China.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine has significantly deteriorated, with a marked escalation in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts due to intense missile and drone attacks, resulting in civilian casualties and significant damage to infrastructure. Reports confirm four injuries from an airstrike in Semenivka, Chernihiv Oblast, with damage to an administrative building, hospital, cafe, residential buildings, and civilian vehicles. The continued advance of Russian forces in the Donetsk region, particularly towards Pokrovsk and the impending fall of Kurakhove, represents a significant threat to Ukrainian defenses. Drone warfare remains a critical element, with the Ukrainian Air Force reporting new enemy drones approaching Kremenchuk, Zhytomyr, and Nizhyn. Russian forces have also launched strikes in multiple oblasts. The debris from drones damaged residential buildings and vehicles in the Rostov region during a repelled attack. Thirteen Ukrainian drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region. The new messages add further information on the movement of Russian drones in Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, and Poltava Oblasts. The video showing the nighttime recovery of a damaged SUV and the video showing military personnel on a street offer limited insight into the ongoing operations without further context. The photos of damage in Semenivka provide visual evidence of the impact of the airstrikes. Russian forces reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Zelenivka, south of Kurakhove. Ukrainian forces reportedly made advances up to 1.5 km east of Stupochki and occupied new positions on the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal near Chasiv Yar. An interview with a Russian Su-57 test pilot was published, detailing his positive reception in China. One Russian drone is reported to be retreating from Sumy Oblast.