Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 4, 2025, 21:00 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely volatile, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces are making significant advances, particularly around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. In the Pokrovsk direction alone, nearly 110 battles have been reported today. Ukrainian forces are conducting a fighting withdrawal in these areas, utilizing ATACMS missiles and drones to counter Russian advances. Russian missile and drone strikes continue to pose a widespread threat across multiple regions, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts. Drone warfare is a dominant feature of the conflict, with both sides employing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces report the destruction of enemy equipment and personnel, including notable actions by the 60th Brigade in Ivanivka and the 37th Marine Brigade on the Kurakhiv direction. Russian forces are increasing their presence in the Kursk region, with reports indicating significant losses for Ukrainian forces attempting to hold the area.

Key Updates

Drone Warfare Intensification

• New Drone Threats: Ukrainian Air Force reports new groups of enemy drones entering Sumy Oblast, with updated information on drone movements in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv Oblasts. A drone is confirmed to be approaching Lubny (Poltava Oblast) from the northeast.
• Air Defense Activation: Ukrainian air defenses are active, particularly in Kyiv Oblast, engaging drones.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: A new threat of drone attacks is reported in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the east.
• Cherkasy: An enemy drone is reported to be approaching Cherkasy from the northeast.
• Chernihiv, Brovary, Poltava: Enemy drones are reported to be approaching these cities.
• Zhytomyr Oblast: A new threat of drone attacks is reported in Zhytomyr Oblast from the east.

Other Significant Developments

• Turkish Naval Developments: Turkey has commenced construction of an aircraft carrier (MUGEM), an air defense destroyer (TF-2000), and a submarine (MILDEN), potentially impacting the Black Sea naval balance.
• Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23, potentially leading to a suspension of the Paris Charter for 10-20 years.
• Apple CEO's Potential Donation to Trump's Inauguration: Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, is reportedly planning to donate $1 million to Donald Trump's inauguration.
• Escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Ongoing clashes and casualties are reported, with potential involvement from Hezbollah and Yemeni Houthis.
• Civilian Casualties in Zaporizhzhia Oblast: A child was killed and two adults were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on a civilian car.
• Environmental Disaster in Anapa: 90% of birds rescued in Anapa died during transportation due to overloading and improper handling.
• Journalist Casualties: Several journalists were injured or killed in drone attacks, with reports of targeting to silence the press. A survivor reported on a large-scale drone attack in Horlivka.
• Ukrainian Military Concerns: Reports indicate Ukrainian military personnel are hesitant to wear their uniforms in public due to fear and hostility from civilians.
• Awards to Russian Airborne Units: Seven units of the Russian Airborne Forces have been awarded.
• Fundraising for Drones: Ongoing fundraising efforts to supply drones to Russian forces are reported.
• Ukrainian Counteroffensive in Kursk: Reports of significant Russian losses in the Kursk region suggest a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive.
• US Secretary of State's Assessment: US Secretary of State Blinken believes that the front line in Ukraine is unlikely to change significantly in the near future.
• Captured Ukrainian Soldier's Statement: A captured Ukrainian soldier stated his unit was used as cannon fodder and left behind.
• Conflict between a Russian and an Armenian in Russia: An incident in Yessentuki involved a Russian woman preventing an Armenian from displaying the Armenian flag.
• Attempted Terrorist Attack in Bryansk Region: An attempted drone attack was prevented in the Bryansk region.
• Austrian Chancellor to Resign: Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer has announced his intention to resign.
• Fundraising for Ukrainian Military: The DeepStateUA charitable foundation is fundraising for drones for the 32nd Separate Mechanized Brigade.
• Polish Evacuation Plans: Poland is developing evacuation plans in case of natural disasters or military threats.
• Mobilization Death in Chernivtsi: Another death during mobilization in the Armed Forces of Ukraine occurred in Chernivtsi.
• Restoration of Key Social Services in Ukraine: Access to key social services in Ukraine will be restored tomorrow after a Russian cyberattack.
• Truck Driver to Avoid Trial by Joining the War: A truck driver responsible for a deadly accident will avoid trial by signing a contract to fight in Ukraine.
• Gratitude for Support to Russian Forces: Russian forces express gratitude for provided equipment.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine is characterized by intense fighting, with a particular focus on the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces are making advances, while Ukrainian forces are conducting both withdrawals and counteroffensives. Drone warfare remains central, with new reports indicating an expansion of Russian drone operations into the Poltava region, posing a threat to Lubny. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats. The construction of new naval assets by Turkey introduces a significant new dynamic in the Black Sea, potentially challenging Russian naval dominance and impacting the conflict's trajectory.

Geopolitical tensions are heightened by potential meetings between Western and Russian leaders and possible shifts in US policy, particularly with reports of a potential donation from Apple's CEO to Trump's inauguration. The conflict continues to impact civilians, with casualties reported and internal tensions within Ukraine evident. The importance of logistics, particularly in the supply of drones and other advanced equipment, is underscored by ongoing fundraising efforts.

The situation is further complicated by reports of journalists being targeted, environmental disasters, and internal issues within both the Ukrainian and Russian military structures. The international dimension is marked by Poland's preparations for potential evacuations and discussions about the restoration of social services in Ukraine following cyberattacks. The recent drone attacks and air raid alerts across multiple regions, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr, highlight the widespread and escalating nature of the conflict.