Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 4, 2025, 18:00 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and volatile. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, particularly around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces report almost 110 battles today, with a concentration in the Pokrovsk direction, using ATACMS missiles and drones, but are conducting a fighting withdrawal. The threat of Russian missile and drone strikes persists across multiple regions, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reports multiple drone movements and engagements, with new alerts for Lubny in Poltava Oblast and drones in Chernihiv moving southwest. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces are highlighting the continued destruction of enemy equipment and personnel, including the work of the 60th Brigade in Ivanivka and the 37th Marine Brigade on the Kurakhiv direction. There is a continued increase of Russian forces in the Kursk region, with reports suggesting significant losses for Ukrainian forces attempting to hold the area, and new reports indicate even heavier losses, reaching 48,000 casualties.

Key Developments

Sumy Oblast

Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) near Kupyansk and in the direction of Sumy.
The Sever Group of Forces’ FPV drone team destroyed a camouflaged position of an AFU mortar in the Sumy region.
Enemy drones are reported in the east of Chernihiv and Sumy regions, moving southwest.
Ukrainian Air Force reports updates on the movement of Russian drones:
- Drones in the center of Sumy Oblast, moving southeast.
- Drones in eastern and western Poltava Oblast, moving west.
- Drones in northeastern Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
- A drone is reported on the northeast of Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
Movement of hostile drones has been detected in the Sumy region, moving in a southerly direction.
Enemy drones are in the east, south, and center of Chernihiv region, in the center and southern parts of Sumy region, moving west/southwest.
Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of enemy drones in the southwest of Sumy and the center of Chernihiv regions, moving southwest.
Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of enemy drones in Sumy Oblast.
Heavy airstrikes were reported in Sumy Oblast.
Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle in the Sumy region, near the Kursk border.
One Shahed drone is circling at the intersection of the Sumy and Poltava regions.
The Air Force reported Shahed drones in the east of the Sumy region heading towards the Chernihiv region.
A new group of Shahed drones is heading from the Black Sea towards the south of the Odesa region.
Shahed drones are present in the south of Sumy Oblast, the east of Poltava Oblast, and the west of Kharkiv Oblast, moving northwards.
Drones in the north of Sumy region, course - south-west.
Drones are reported in the center of Poltava Oblast, moving northwest, and on the west of Sumy Oblast, moving southwest.
New drones entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk, moving southwest.
Russian forces launched guided aerial bombs on the north and northeast of Kharkiv Oblast.
A video from the "Два майора" Telegram channel shows an FPV drone attacking a Ukrainian mortar position in the Sumy direction.
Russian forces report they destroyed 3 Leopard tanks in the border areas of the Kursk region. The tanks were reportedly targeted by FPV drones equipped with fiber optic guidance.
Ukrainian Air Force reports that enemy drones are currently observed in the east of Poltava region, with a southwesterly course.
10 people, including 2 children, were injured as a result of a Russian airstrike on Svesa which destroyed 15 apartments.

Donetsk Region

Ukrainian forces report that there have been almost 110 battles in the Pokrovsk direction today.
Russian forces launched a missile strike on a cafe during a memorial service in Hroza, Kharkiv Oblast, killing 59 civilians. Ukrainian intelligence reports that the commander of the battery division responsible for the strike, Captain Konstantin Nagayko, was critically injured in an explosion in Russia.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) in the direction of Donetsk.
Drone operators of the "Sparta" Reconnaissance Battalion destroyed an enemy stronghold and observation post in the Donetsk direction.
FPV drones of the "Center" group continue to hunt for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Pokrovsk direction.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting and destroying Russian military equipment and personnel near Novoelizavetivka, south of Pokrovsk.
Russian forces are using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
Operators of drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army discovered and destroyed a disguised Ukrainian communications repeater, thereby ensuring the security of Russian positions from enemy drone strikes.
Aerial reconnaissance from the "Mad Dogs" brigade detected a night raid by Ukrainian forces from the 32nd Brigade. A Russian FPV drone operator, "Dolgiy," reportedly destroyed four Ukrainian soldiers and wounded two during this raid in the Pokrovsk direction.
Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces used drones to target the positions of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in the Kurakhovo direction.
Operators of drones from the 110th Brigade, operating in the Kurakhove direction, spotted moving Ukrainian soldiers and dropped a munition, killing one.
Attack FPV drone teams of the Yug Group of Forces eliminated a stronghold and a mortar position of the AFU in Kurakhove direction.
Ukrainian forces used drones to target Russian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian command post near the Toretsk mine.
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike operation in the Pokrovsk direction, targeting a Russian command post and destroying a Starlink station.
Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
Ukrainian forces report that a Russian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka was destroyed by drone operators.
Russian forces report an attack on a bus in the Korabelny district of Kherson.
Russian forces have taken Ivan-Daryevka and are advancing west of the settlement.
Russian forces liberated Novyi Trud.
Russian assault units surrounded and captured Ukrainka.
Russian forces have entered Slavyanka and Petropavlovka, and captured some Ukrainian positions north of Shevchenko.
Russian forces are making gains near Novovasylivka, 10 km southwest of Pokrovsk, with active assault operations. They are also advancing west and northwest of Uspenovka.
Fighters of the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed an enemy mortar with an FPV drone.
A Ukrainian drone "Vampir" of the "Hydra" unit of the 137th Separate Marine Battalion remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria, Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces continue to launch airstrikes on concentrations of Ukrainian forces in the Zaporizhzhia Direction.
Ukrainian forces, specifically the "RAROG" unit of the 24th Mechanized Brigade, report destroying four T-62 tanks and three BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles near Chasiv Yar.
Positional fighting continues in the Krasnoarmiisk-Novoaleksandrivka direction.
Russian forces report successful advances by the 7th Brigade in Belogorovka.
Russian forces report they have taken new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar, advancing up to 1.5 km.
An operational video from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the Vostok group showcases their drones destroying enemy observation and communication equipment near Velyka Novosilka.
Ukrainian forces report that a Russian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka was destroyed by drone operators.
Donetsk Oblast is under rocket attack.
Ukrainian forces report that two tanks of the 60th Mechanized Brigade destroyed enemy-occupied buildings with direct fire before retreating.
Video evidence shows a Ukrainian FPV drone striking a Russian BMP-2 with infantry on top in the Donetsk region.
New Report: Ukrainian forces, specifically the 60th Brigade, are showcasing their operations against Russian forces in Ivanivka. The situation in Ivanivka remains challenging, with no significant positive changes reported. Russian forces are attempting to establish a foothold in the village to facilitate further advances. Ukrainian forces are working to dislodge the enemy and prevent their crossing of the Zherebets River.
New: Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian ZIL with a ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft gun near Krasnoe using a drone.
New: Ukrainian marine units report destroying Russian equipment and personnel in Kursk region.
New: Ukrainian 37th Marine Brigade used mines, artillery, FPV-drones, and other drones to repel Russian attacks on the Kurakhiv direction.

Kursk Region

A Lancet loitering munition team of the Sever Group of Forces wiped out an AFU tank in the border area of Kursk region.
Video shows a drone strike on a US-made M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle near Sudzha.
Video allegedly shows a Ukrainian drone strike on a command post of the 810th Marine Brigade at the Lgov sugar factory.
Fighting is ongoing near Malaya Loknya, where a Russian drone strike targeted a Ukrainian vehicle and building.
Russian forces are making advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka.
Active combat near Sudzha: Russian forces are attacking towards Viktorivka.
Russian airborne troops have reportedly taken full control of Cherkaska Konopelka.
The Russian MoD reports that the AFU lost over 540 troops, as well as numerous tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery pieces in an attempt to invade Kursk region on January 4th.
Russian forces are reportedly pressing Ukrainian forces on all fronts in the Kursk region.
Russian forces report they destroyed 3 Leopard tanks in the border areas of the Kursk region. The tanks were reportedly targeted by FPV drones equipped with fiber optic guidance.
Code 9.2 unit drops "goodies" on communists and Jucheists in the Kursk region.
Operators of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed an enemy along with equipment in the Kursk region.
Video from Sudoplatov shows Russian forces towing a captured American M113 armored personnel carrier in the Kursk region.
A Russian soldier detonated a grenade near his head after being attacked by a Ukrainian FPV drone in Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot. The operation involved a group of attack drones, including "Baba Yaga" heavy bombers and FPV drones. The T-90 tank was destroyed by a direct hit from an FPV drone, while the ammunition depot was destroyed by a "Baba Yaga" drone.
South of Kruhlenky, Russian forces advanced towards Viktorivka. They are also advancing towards Leonidove.
Russian forces made advances in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
The Russian Army is conducting a powerful offensive, storming Kruglenkoye and advancing towards Sudzha, Martynovka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
Russian forces advanced to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
The "Sever" group of forces is engaged in fierce battles along the entire front line.
Ka-52M helicopters reportedly disrupted a rotation of Ukrainian units in the border area.
Russian forces are making progress in the forests of the Sudzhansky district and near Leonidovo and Kurilovka.
Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans.
Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle in the Sumy region, near the Kursk border.
Video shows drone footage from the 80th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces engaging Russian infantry in the Kursk region.
Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces are abandoning their wounded in Kursk Oblast.
New: Russian forces are attempting to capture and hold Kursk Oblast and plan to maintain their positions until Trump's inauguration.
New: Russian forces used FPV drones to stop a Ukrainian tank and BMP, preventing a rotation.
New: Russian forces report that Ukrainian losses in Kursk are approaching 48,000 troops.

Drone Warfare and Air Activity

An enemy drone is confirmed to be heading towards Mykolaiv from the south.
One drone is flying from Velyka Korenykha towards the Zavodskyi/Centralnyi district of Mykolaiv, with active engagement reported.
Two drones are circling near the Kosa area.
One drone is reported in the Halytsynove area.
One drone is reported near the Korabelnyi district of Mykolaiv, with potential for loud noise.
3 drones via Bilyaivka are heading towards Kurortne. 1 drone is circling around the border of Sumy and Poltava oblasts. 2 drones are moving from Kharkiv to Poltava. 3 drones are in Lozova area, heading north.
Several groups of attack drones detected south of Kyiv.
Enemy drones are reportedly heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast from the south, with a call for residents of Ochakiv to take shelter.
Two drones are reported near Kobleve, and two more are moving from the Tendra Spit towards Ochakiv.
Drones are reported in Mykolaiv Oblast, approaching from the south.
Enemy drones are moving from the Black Sea towards Chornomorske/Pivdenne (Odesa Oblast).
Air raid alerts have been issued in Mykolaiv Oblast due to the threat of "Shahed" drones.
Mykolaiv Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks.
Reports indicate drones approaching from Tendra towards Odesa/Pivdenne, with an estimated arrival time of 10-15 minutes. The number of drones is being clarified.
Within an hour, explosions were heard in the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, in the suburbs of Kharkiv and Cherkasy.
Several groups of attack drones detected south of Kyiv.
1 drone is approaching Boryspil. 2 drones are flying from Poltava region to Cherkasy. 1 drone is flying from Kirovohrad region to Vinnytsia. 3 drones are in Pryluky area, heading southwest. 3 new drones are flying through Shostka area, heading southwest.
The Air Force reports the movement of enemy drones:
- Drones in the west of Poltava region, course - west / southwest;
- Drones in the north of Sumy region, course - south-west;
- Drones in the center of Chernihiv region, course - south / south-west;
- Drones in the east of Kyiv region, course - west / north-west;
- Drones on the border of Kirovohrad and Odesa regions, course - west.
City of Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast) is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the northeast.
Ukrainian air defense forces successfully detected and neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv.
Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of enemy drones in Chernihiv Oblast.
Video shows Ukrainian forces from the SIGNUM unit striking a target with an FPV drone. They also hit a military truck, a van with EW equipment, and a Gazelle.
Video shows the work of a combat medic from the 78th Separate Air Assault Regiment. The medic emphasizes the importance of speed, determination, and saving lives.
Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in the north.
An enemy drone is heading towards Dnipro from the north.
Ukrainian Air Force announced the end of the threat of enemy drones.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports no threat of attack drones.
Increased drone activity in Kharkiv and Poltava regions, with drones moving west/southwest.
Enemy drone reported near Poltava from the north. Residents urged to remain in shelters.
Enemy drone reported near Poltava from the east.
Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans in the Kursk region.
Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
Movement of hostile drones has been detected in the Zhytomyr region, moving in a westerly direction.
Movement of hostile drones has been detected in the Kyiv region, moving in a southwesterly direction.
Movement of hostile drones has been detected in the Chernihiv region, moving in a westerly direction.
Ukrainian forces report the movement of hostile drones in Kyiv Oblast, air defense is active.
Ukrainian forces report the movement of hostile drones in Zhytomyr Oblast, heading towards them from Kyiv Oblast.
Ukrainian forces report destroying 3 Russian BTRs.
Russian forces are using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces used drones to target the positions of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in the Kurakhovo direction.
Ukrainian forces used drones to target Russian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian command post near the Toretsk mine.
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike operation in the Pokrovsk direction, targeting a Russian command post and destroying a Starlink station.
Ukrainian forces report that a Russian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka was destroyed by drone operators.
Emergency services evacuated about 100 residents of a house in Voronezh, where parts of downed UAVs were found, the governor of the region Gusev said.
Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Ronins" unit of the 65th Mechanized Brigade, are actively working to destroy enemy logistics using drones.
Video evidence of a drone operator targeting an individual soldier lying in a damaged structure.
A new FPV-drone "Hortenzia" with support of management for optical fiber started to be used.
In the Kursk border area, reconnaissance of the Anvar special forces is operating, which has a lot of different FPV drones. These are fiber-optic drones, radio-controlled drones, and drones with AI, said the commander of the reconnaissance detachment with the call sign Beret to RT military commander Alexander Yaremchuk. At 01:00 and 01:26 - this is the current situation in the border area and this is how the enemy behaves. At 02:01 - the scouts send a "bird" with fiber optics to the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is useless to influence it with electronic warfare. At 02:47, 02:51, 02:56 - successful operation of drones.
An enemy drone is confirmed to be heading towards Mykolaiv from the south.
One drone is flying from Velyka Korenykha towards the Zavodskyi/Centralnyi district of Mykolaiv, with active engagement reported.
Two drones are circling near the Kosa area.
One drone is reported in the Halytsynove area.
One drone is reported near the Korabelnyi district of Mykolaiv, with potential for loud noise.
Three drones are confirmed to be moving through Kutsurub in a northerly direction.
Ukrainian air defense systems are actively engaging Russian drones, with reports of "first drones shot down" in the Mykolaiv region.
Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down a Ukrainian missile over Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces report that one Russian warship is present in the Black Sea, but it is not equipped with "Kalibr" missiles. No Russian warships were detected in the Azov Sea.
New enemy drone attacks reported in Ochakiv from the Black Sea.
Up to 10 drones were reported over Ochakiv, with some shot down. One drone was reported near Parutino.
Russian drones were launched from Crimea.
Ukrainian air defense systems engaged multiple Russian drones near Nechaiane, Ochakiv, and Velyka Korenykha.
Up to 10 drones and several FPV drones were involved in the recent attack.
Drone movement has been detected in the Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions, specifically near Nizhyn.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of drones in Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to the south-west and west, in Chernihiv Oblast to the west, and new groups in the east of Kharkiv Oblast to the west.
Enemy drone is moving in the direction of Cherkasy from the southeast.
One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest. Five drones near Konotop, moving southwest.
The missile is flying west of Voznesensk towards Pervomaisk.
A high-speed target is reported on the border of Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts.
A new group of drones from Sumy Oblast is moving towards Poltava Oblast.
Several Shahed drones are in the center, north, south, and east of Kharkiv Oblast, moving northwest.
A group of Shahed drones is moving north in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Several Shahed drones detected moving from the Black Sea towards Chornomorske and Pivdenne.
Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot. The operation involved a group of attack drones, including "Baba Yaga" heavy bombers and FPV drones. The T-90 tank was destroyed by a direct hit from an FPV drone, while the ammunition depot was destroyed by a "Baba Yaga" drone.
One drone is flying from the Mykolaiv region towards the Odesa region, to the north of the region.
One drone from the Odesa region is flying towards the Vinnytsia region. One drone is approaching Rozdilna. One drone is flying towards Odesa. The northern direction is being clarified.
Update: 1 drone turned towards Odesa, expect loud activity.
Update: 1 drone near Pryluky, moving northwest.
Update: 1 drone is heading via Konotop towards Sumy.
Update: 1 drone north of Nizhyn, moving towards Chernihiv.
Update: 1 new drone from the Black Sea is heading towards Ovidiopol.
Update: 2 drones via Bilyaivka are heading towards Odesa.
Update: 3 drones via Rozdilna are heading towards Odesa Oblast.
Operators of the FPV group "Sever" hit three Ukrainian Armed Forces dugouts with three kamikaze drones in the Kharkiv direction.
Three Shahed drones are in the Lozova area of the Kharkiv region, heading north.
Two Shahed drones are moving from the Kharkiv region to the Poltava region.
One Shahed drone is circling at the intersection of the Sumy and Poltava regions.
Three Shahed drones are heading towards Kurortne through Bilyaivka.
The Air Force reported:
- A new group of Shahed drones from the Black Sea heading towards the south of the Odesa region.
- Shahed drones in the south of the Odesa region heading north.
- Shahed drones in the south of the Kharkiv region heading northwest.
- Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from the north of the Kharkiv region heading towards the Poltava region.
- Drones in the east of the Poltava region heading towards Myrhorod.
- Shahed drones in the east of the Sumy region heading towards the Chernihiv region.
Three Shahed drones are approaching Bilyaivka either through or near the town. Three new Shahed drones are moving from the Black Sea towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, with one potentially heading towards Ovidiopol.
New Shahed drones are heading towards Odesa Oblast, specifically towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district.
A new group of Shahed drones is heading from the Black Sea towards the south of the Odesa region.
New Update: Shahed drones are present in the south of Sumy Oblast, the east of Poltava Oblast, and the west of Kharkiv Oblast, moving northwards.
New Update: New Shahed drones from the Black Sea are heading towards the south of Odesa Oblast.
New Update: One drone is in the Zlatopil area and has turned towards Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast.
New Update: Two drones are moving from the east of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Kharkiv Oblast.
New Update: Four drones are approaching Chuhuiv/Kharkiv. Anti-aircraft operations may be active.
New Update: Three drones are moving from Kharkiv Oblast to Poltava Oblast.
New Alert: Ukrainian Air Force reports an enemy drone approaching Lubny (Poltava Oblast) from the northeast.
New: Ukrainian air defenses are preparing for a possible Russian Tu-95MS strategic bomber attack tonight.
New: Russian drones are targeting Chernihiv and Nizhyn.
New: Russian drones are causing problems for Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast.

New Information Analysis

Drone Threat to Lubny: The Ukrainian Air Force has issued a new alert regarding an enemy drone approaching Lubny in Poltava Oblast from the northeast. This indicates a potential expansion of Russian drone operations into the Poltava region, posing a new threat to the area.
Turkish Naval Developments: Turkey has commenced the construction of an aircraft carrier (MUGEM), an air defense destroyer (TF-2000), and a submarine (MILDEN). The aircraft carrier will have three runways and be capable of carrying up to 50 aircraft, including drones. The destroyer will be equipped with advanced weaponry, including a 127-mm cannon, vertical launch systems, and anti-ship missiles. The submarine will feature an Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) system, enhancing its stealth and endurance. These developments signify a major enhancement of Turkey's naval capabilities, which could have implications for the regional balance of power, particularly in the Black Sea.
Impact on the Black Sea: The strengthening of Turkey's naval forces, especially with an aircraft carrier, poses a challenge to Russia's Black Sea Fleet. This could complicate the situation in the region and potentially alter the dynamics of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Geopolitical Implications: While Turkey and Russia have bilateral projects, the enhancement of Turkey's military capabilities, as a NATO member, is seen as a reinforcement of the alliance. This could lead to increased tensions between Russia and NATO in the Black Sea region.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest that German Chancellor Scholz may meet with Russian President Putin before February 23. This meeting could have significant implications for Ukraine, potentially leading to a suspension of the Paris Charter for 10-20 years. The reaction of the Ukrainian population and neighboring countries will be crucial in shaping the outcome of such a meeting.
Apple CEO's Potential Donation to Trump's Inauguration: Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, is reportedly planning to donate $1 million to Donald Trump's inauguration. This decision highlights the ongoing relationship between Trump and Cook and could have implications for US policy towards Ukraine if Trump were to be re-elected.
Escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: The situation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict zone remains tense, with ongoing clashes and casualties. The conflict has broader regional implications, with potential involvement from Hezbollah and other actors. The use of ballistic missiles and drones by Yemeni Houthis adds another layer of complexity to the situation.
Civilian Casualties in Zaporizhzhia Oblast: A child was killed and two adults were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on a civilian car in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This incident highlights the ongoing danger to civilians in the conflict zone.
Environmental Disaster in Anapa: 90% of birds rescued in Anapa died during transportation to Krasnodar due to overloading and improper handling by officials. This incident underscores the environmental consequences of the conflict and the challenges faced by rescue operations.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and volatile. Russian forces continue to make significant advances in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with intense fighting around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces report almost 110 battles today, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction. The threat of Russian missile and drone strikes persists across multiple regions. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with both sides employing drones extensively. Ukrainian forces are enhancing their capabilities through international training and the development of advanced drone technologies. The geopolitical landscape is marked by continued information warfare, with both sides reinforcing their narratives. The situation in Debaltseve suggests potential escalation, while the environmental incident in Sevastopol could divert Russian resources. The training of Ukrainian commanders in the UK and the restoration of the Pokrovsk sign underscore Ukraine's efforts to strengthen its defenses and maintain control over key areas. The coming days will likely see continued intense fighting, particularly in the Donetsk region, increased drone activity, and potential shifts in the balance of power. The international community's response, particularly regarding military aid and training, will continue to play a crucial role in shaping the conflict's outcome. The new alert regarding a drone threat to Lubny indicates a potential expansion of Russian drone operations, while Turkey's naval developments could significantly impact the regional balance of power, particularly in the Black Sea. Reports of a potential meeting between Scholz and Putin, as well as Tim Cook's planned donation to Trump's inauguration, add further complexity to the geopolitical landscape. The ongoing escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza also have broader regional implications.

Situation Report