Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 4, 2025, 16:30 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces are making significant advances, particularly around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces report that the situation remains tense, with almost 110 battles taking place today, especially in the Pokrovsk direction. The reported use of ATACMS missiles, drone strikes, and the ongoing threat of Russian missile and drone strikes across multiple regions highlight the persistent danger to both military forces and civilian infrastructure. The Russian MoD claims that Ukrainian forces attempted to strike the Belgorod region with ATACMS missiles and that all missiles were shot down by air defense systems.

Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with both sides employing extensive drone reconnaissance, targeting, and attack capabilities. Ukrainian forces are actively using drones to target Russian positions, equipment, and personnel, while Russian forces are employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and strikes on Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the threat of enemy drones in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts. The Ukrainian GUR claims responsibility for a cyberattack on the Russian company "RegionTransService", disrupting their servers and operations.

Key Developments

Sumy Oblast

Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) near Kupyansk and in the direction of Sumy.
The Sever Group of Forces’ FPV drone team destroyed a camouflaged position of an AFU mortar in the Sumy region.
Ukrainian Air Force reports that enemy drones are currently observed in the east of Poltava region, with a southwesterly course.
Russian forces report they destroyed 3 Leopard tanks in the border areas of the Kursk region. The tanks were reportedly targeted by FPV drones equipped with fiber optic guidance.
A video from the "Два майора" Telegram channel shows an FPV drone attacking a Ukrainian mortar position in the Sumy direction.
Russian forces launched guided aerial bombs on the north and northeast of Kharkiv Oblast.
New drones entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk, moving southwest.
Drones are reported in the center of Poltava Oblast, moving northwest, and on the west of Sumy Oblast, moving southwest.
Drones in the north of Sumy region, course - south-west.
Shahed drones are present in the south of Sumy Oblast, the east of Poltava Oblast, and the west of Kharkiv Oblast, moving northwards.
A new group of Shahed drones is heading from the Black Sea towards the south of the Odesa region.
The Air Force reported Shahed drones in the east of the Sumy region heading towards the Chernihiv region.
One Shahed drone is circling at the intersection of the Sumy and Poltava regions.
Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle in the Sumy region, near the Kursk border.
Heavy airstrikes were reported in Sumy Oblast.
Ukrainian Air Force reports updates on the movement of Russian drones:
- Drones in the center of Sumy Oblast, moving southeast.
- Drones in eastern and western Poltava Oblast, moving west.
- Drones in northeastern Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
- A drone is reported on the northeast of Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
Movement of hostile drones has been detected in the Sumy region, moving in a southerly direction.
Enemy drones are in the east, south, and center of Chernihiv region, in the center and southern parts of Sumy region, moving west/southwest.
New Update: Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of enemy drones in Sumy Oblast.
New Update: Enemy drones are in the east of Chernihiv and Sumy regions, moving southwest.
New Update: Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of enemy drones in the southwest of Sumy and the center of Chernihiv regions, moving southwest.

Donetsk Region

Video evidence shows a Ukrainian FPV drone striking a Russian BMP-2 with infantry on top in the Donetsk region.
Ukrainian forces report that two tanks of the 60th Mechanized Brigade destroyed enemy-occupied buildings with direct fire before retreating.
Donetsk Oblast is under rocket attack.
Ukrainian forces report that a Russian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka was destroyed by drone operators.
An operational video from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the Vostok group showcases their drones destroying enemy observation and communication equipment near Velyka Novosilka.
Russian forces report they have taken new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar, advancing up to 1.5 km.
Russian forces report successful advances by the 7th Brigade in Belogorovka.
Positional fighting continues in the Krasnoarmiisk-Novoaleksandrivka direction.
Ukrainian forces, specifically the "RAROG" unit of the 24th Mechanized Brigade, report destroying four T-62 tanks and three BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles near Chasiv Yar.
Russian forces continue to launch airstrikes on concentrations of Ukrainian forces in the Zaporizhzhia Direction.
A Ukrainian drone "Vampir" of the "Hydra" unit of the 137th Separate Marine Battalion remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria, Donetsk Oblast.
Fighters of the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed an enemy mortar with an FPV drone.
Russian forces are making gains near Novovasylivka, 10 km southwest of Pokrovsk, with active assault operations. They are also advancing west and northwest of Uspenovka.
Russian forces have entered Slavyanka and Petropavlovka, and captured some Ukrainian positions north of Shevchenko.
Russian assault units surrounded and captured Ukrainka.
Russian forces liberated Novyi Trud.
Russian forces have taken Ivan-Daryevka and are advancing west of the settlement.
Russian forces report an attack on a bus in the Korabelny district of Kherson.
Ukrainian forces report that a Russian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka was destroyed by drone operators.
Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike operation in the Pokrovsk direction, targeting a Russian command post and destroying a Starlink station.
Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian command post near the Toretsk mine.
Ukrainian forces used drones to target Russian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
Attack FPV drone teams of the Yug Group of Forces eliminated a stronghold and a mortar position of the AFU in Kurakhove direction.
Operators of drones from the 110th Brigade, operating in the Kurakhove direction, spotted moving Ukrainian soldiers and dropped a munition, killing one.
Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces used drones to target the positions of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in the Kurakhovo direction.
Aerial reconnaissance from the "Mad Dogs" brigade detected a night raid by Ukrainian forces from the 32nd Brigade. A Russian FPV drone operator, "Dolgiy," reportedly destroyed four Ukrainian soldiers and wounded two during this raid in the Pokrovsk direction.
Operators of drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army discovered and destroyed a disguised Ukrainian communications repeater, thereby ensuring the security of Russian positions from enemy drone strikes.
Russian forces are using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting and destroying Russian military equipment and personnel near Novoelizavetivka, south of Pokrovsk.
FPV drones of the "Center" group continue to hunt for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Pokrovsk direction.
Drone operators of the "Sparta" Reconnaissance Battalion destroyed an enemy stronghold and observation post in the Donetsk direction.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) in the direction of Donetsk.
Russian forces launched a missile strike on a cafe during a memorial service in Hroza, Kharkiv Oblast, killing 59 civilians. Ukrainian intelligence reports that the commander of the battery division responsible for the strike, Captain Konstantin Nagayko, was critically injured in an explosion in Russia.
New Update: Ukrainian forces report that there have been almost 110 battles in the Pokrovsk direction today.

Kursk Region

Video shows drone footage from the 80th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces engaging Russian infantry in the Kursk region.
Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle in the Sumy region, near the Kursk border.
Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans.
Russian forces are making progress in the forests of the Sudzhansky district and near Leonidovo and Kurilovka.
Ka-52M helicopters reportedly disrupted a rotation of Ukrainian units in the border area.
The "Sever" group of forces is engaged in fierce battles along the entire front line.
Russian forces advanced to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
The Russian Army is conducting a powerful offensive, storming Kruglenkoye and advancing towards Sudzha, Martynovka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
Russian forces made advances in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
South of Kruhlenky, Russian forces advanced towards Viktorivka. They are also advancing towards Leonidove.
Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot. The operation involved a group of attack drones, including "Baba Yaga" heavy bombers and FPV drones. The T-90 tank was destroyed by a direct hit from an FPV drone, while the ammunition depot was destroyed by a "Baba Yaga" drone.
A Russian soldier detonated a grenade near his head after being attacked by a Ukrainian FPV drone in Kursk Oblast.
Video from Sudoplatov shows Russian forces towing a captured American M113 armored personnel carrier in the Kursk region.
Operators of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed an enemy along with equipment in the Kursk region.
Code 9.2 unit drops "goodies" on communists and Jucheists in the Kursk region.
Russian forces report they destroyed 3 Leopard tanks in the border areas of the Kursk region. The tanks were reportedly targeted by FPV drones equipped with fiber optic guidance.
Russian forces are reportedly pressing Ukrainian forces on all fronts in the Kursk region.
The Russian MoD reports that the AFU lost over 540 troops, as well as numerous tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery pieces in an attempt to invade Kursk region on January 4th.
Russian airborne troops have reportedly taken full control of Cherkaska Konopelka.
Active combat near Sudzha: Russian forces are attacking towards Viktorivka.
Russian forces are making advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka.
Fighting is ongoing near Malaya Loknya, where a Russian drone strike targeted a Ukrainian vehicle and building.
Russian forces also report a drone strike near Maryevka, targeting a Ukrainian vehicle and building with personnel.
Video allegedly shows a Ukrainian drone strike on a command post of the 810th Marine Brigade at the Lgov sugar factory.
Video shows a drone strike on a US-made M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle near Sudzha.
A Lancet loitering munition team of the Sever Group of Forces wiped out an AFU tank in the border area of Kursk region.

Drone Warfare and Air Activity

New Update: Three drones are moving from Kharkiv Oblast to Poltava Oblast.
New Update: Four drones are approaching Chuhuiv/Kharkiv. Anti-aircraft operations may be active.
New Update: Two drones are moving from the east of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Kharkiv Oblast.
New Update: One drone is in the Zlatopil area and has turned towards Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast.
New Update: New Shahed drones from the Black Sea are heading towards the south of Odesa Oblast.
New Update: Shahed drones are present in the south of Sumy Oblast, the east of Poltava Oblast, and the west of Kharkiv Oblast, moving northwards.
New Update: A new group of Shahed drones is heading from the Black Sea towards the south of the Odesa region.
New Update: New Shahed drones are heading towards Odesa Oblast, specifically towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district.
New Update: Three Shahed drones are approaching Bilyaivka either through or near the town. Three new Shahed drones are moving from the Black Sea towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, with one potentially heading towards Ovidiopol.
New Update: The Air Force reported:
- A new group of Shahed drones from the Black Sea heading towards the south of the Odesa region.
- Shahed drones in the south of the Odesa region heading north.
- Shahed drones in the south of the Kharkiv region heading northwest.
- Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from the north of the Kharkiv region heading towards the Poltava region.
- Drones in the east of the Poltava region heading towards Myrhorod.
Three Shahed drones are heading towards Kurortne through Bilyaivka. One Shahed drone is circling at the intersection of the Sumy and Poltava regions. Two Shahed drones are moving from the Kharkiv region to the Poltava region. Three Shahed drones are in the Lozova area of the Kharkiv region, heading north.
Operators of the FPV group "Sever" hit three Ukrainian Armed Forces dugouts with three kamikaze drones in the Kharkiv direction.
Update: 3 drones via Rozdilna are heading towards Odesa Oblast.
Update: 2 drones via Bilyaivka are heading towards Odesa.
Update: 1 new drone from the Black Sea is heading towards Ovidiopol.
Update: 1 drone north of Nizhyn, moving towards Chernihiv.
Update: 1 drone is heading via Konotop towards Sumy.
Update: 1 drone near Pryluky, moving northwest.
Update: 1 drone turned towards Odesa, expect loud activity.
One drone from the Odesa region is flying towards the Vinnytsia region. One drone is approaching Rozdilna. One drone is flying towards Odesa. The northern direction is being clarified.
One drone is flying from the Mykolaiv region towards the Odesa region, to the north of the region.
Several Shahed drones detected moving from the Black Sea towards Chornomorske and Pivdenne.
A group of Shahed drones is moving north in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Several Shahed drones are in the center, north, south, and east of Kharkiv Oblast, moving northwest.
A new group of drones from Sumy Oblast is moving towards Poltava Oblast.
A high-speed target is reported on the border of Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts.
The missile is flying west of Voznesensk towards Pervomaisk.
One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest. Five drones near Konotop, moving southwest.
Enemy drone is moving in the direction of Cherkasy from the southeast.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of drones in Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to the south-west and west, in Chernihiv Oblast to the west, and new groups in the east of Kharkiv Oblast to the west.
Drone movement has been detected in the Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions, specifically near Nizhyn.
Up to 10 drones and several FPV drones were involved in the recent attack.
Ukrainian air defense systems engaged multiple Russian drones near Nechaiane, Ochakiv, and Velyka Korenykha.
Russian drones were launched from Crimea.
Up to 10 drones were reported over Ochakiv, with some shot down. One drone was reported near Parutino.
New enemy drone attacks reported in Ochakiv from the Black Sea.
Ukrainian air defense systems are actively engaging Russian drones, with reports of "first drones shot down" in the Mykolaiv region.
Three drones are confirmed to be moving through Kutsurub in a northerly direction.
One drone is reported near the Korabelnyi district of Mykolaiv, with potential for loud noise.
One drone is reported in the Halytsynove area.
Two drones are circling near the Kosa area.
One drone is flying from Velyka Korenykha towards the Zavodskyi/Centralnyi district of Mykolaiv, with active engagement reported.
An enemy drone is confirmed to be heading towards Mykolaiv from the south.
In the Kursk border area, reconnaissance of the Anvar special forces is operating, which has a lot of different FPV drones. These are fiber-optic drones, radio-controlled drones, and drones with AI, said the commander of the reconnaissance detachment with the call sign Beret to RT military commander Alexander Yaremchuk. At 01:00 and 01:26 - this is the current situation in the border area and this is how the enemy behaves. At 02:01 - the scouts send a "bird" with fiber optics to the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is useless to influence it with electronic warfare. At 02:47, 02:51, 02:56 - successful operation of drones.
A new FPV-drone "Hortenzia" with support of management for optical fiber started to be used.
Video evidence of a drone operator targeting an individual soldier lying in a damaged structure.
Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Ronins" unit of the 65th Mechanized Brigade, are actively working to destroy enemy logistics using drones.
Emergency services evacuated about 100 residents of a house in Voronezh, where parts of downed UAVs were found, the governor of the region Gusev said.
Ukrainian forces report that a Russian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka was destroyed by drone operators.
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike operation in the Pokrovsk direction, targeting a Russian command post and destroying a Starlink station.
Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian command post near the Toretsk mine.
Ukrainian forces used drones to target Russian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces used drones to target the positions of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in the Kurakhovo direction.
Russian forces are using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
Ukrainian forces report destroying 3 Russian BTRs.
Ukrainian forces report the movement of hostile drones in Zhytomyr Oblast, heading towards them from Kyiv Oblast.
Ukrainian forces report the movement of hostile drones in Kyiv Oblast, air defense is active.
Movement of hostile drones has been detected in the Chernihiv region, moving in a westerly direction.
Movement of hostile drones has been detected in the Kyiv region, moving in a southwesterly direction.
Movement of hostile drones has been detected in the Zhytomyr region, moving in a westerly direction.
Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans in the Kursk region.
New Update: Enemy drone reported near Poltava from the east.
New Update: Enemy drone reported near Poltava from the north. Residents urged to remain in shelters.
New Update: Increased drone activity in Kharkiv and Poltava regions, with drones moving west/southwest.
New Update: The Ukrainian Air Force reports no threat of attack drones.
New Update: Ukrainian Air Force announced the end of the threat of enemy drones.
New Update: An enemy drone is heading towards Dnipro from the north.
New Update: Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in the north.
New Update: Video shows the work of a combat medic from the 78th Separate Air Assault Regiment. The medic emphasizes the importance of speed, determination, and saving lives.
New Update: Video shows Ukrainian forces from the SIGNUM unit striking a target with an FPV drone. They also hit a military truck, a van with EW equipment, and a Gazelle.
New Update: Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of enemy drones in Chernihiv Oblast.
New Update: City of Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast) is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the northeast.
New Update: The Air Force reports the movement of enemy drones:
- Drones in the west of Poltava region, course - west / southwest;
- Drones in the north of Sumy region, course - south-west;
- Drones in the center of Chernihiv region, course - south / south-west;
- Drones in the east of Kyiv region, course - west / north-west;
- Drones on the border of Kirovohrad and Odesa regions, course - west.
New Update: 1 drone is approaching Boryspil. 2 drones are flying from Poltava region to Cherkasy. 1 drone is flying from Kirovohrad region to Vinnytsia. 3 drones are in Pryluky area, heading southwest. 3 new drones are flying through Shostka area, heading southwest.
New Update: Several groups of attack drones detected south of Kyiv.
New Update: Within an hour, explosions were heard in the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, in the suburbs of Kharkiv and Cherkasy.
New Update: Ukrainian air defense forces successfully detected and neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv.
New Update: Reports indicate drones approaching from Tendra towards Odesa/Pivdenne, with an estimated arrival time of 10-15 minutes. The number of drones is being clarified.
New Update: Mykolaiv Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks.
New Update: Air raid alerts have been issued in Mykolaiv Oblast due to the threat of "Shahed" drones.
New Update: Enemy drones are moving from the Black Sea towards Chornomorske/Pivdenne (Odesa Oblast).
New Update: Drones are reported in Mykolaiv Oblast, approaching from the south.
New Update: Two drones are reported near Kobleve, and two more are moving from the Tendra Spit towards Ochakiv.
New Update: Enemy drones are reportedly heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast from the south, with a call for residents of Ochakiv to take shelter.
New Update: Several groups of attack drones detected south of Kyiv.
New Update: 3 drones via Bilyaivka are heading towards Kurortne. 1 drone is circling around the border of Sumy and Poltava oblasts. 2 drones are moving from Kharkiv to Poltava. 3 drones are in Lozova area, heading north.
New Update: One drone is reported near the Korabelnyi district of Mykolaiv, with potential for loud noise.
New Update: One drone is reported in the Halytsynove area.
New Update: Two drones are circling near the Kosa area.
New Update: One drone is flying from Velyka Korenykha towards the Zavodskyi/Centralnyi district of Mykolaiv, with active engagement reported.
New Update: An enemy drone is confirmed to be heading towards Mykolaiv from the south.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with significant Russian advances reported in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Intense fighting continues around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka, with both sides employing extensive drone warfare for reconnaissance, targeting, and strikes. Ukrainian forces report that there have been almost 110 battles today, especially in the Pokrovsk direction. The use of guided aerial bombs by Russian forces in the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk regions, along with the continued threat of missile and drone strikes across multiple oblasts, highlights the ongoing danger to both military forces and civilian infrastructure. Ukrainian forces are actively engaging Russian drones and employing their own drones to inflict damage on Russian troops and equipment. The reported purchase of additional drones by Ukraine underscores the importance of drone warfare in this conflict. The liberation of the village of Nadezhda in the Luhansk region by Russian forces was reported.

The geopolitical landscape is marked by continued Russian focus on space operations and the development of new space control systems, the use of propaganda to influence morale, and potential internal issues within both militaries. The coming days will likely see continued intense fighting, particularly in the Donetsk region, increased drone activity across multiple oblasts, including potential threats from the north, and potential missile strikes. New reports indicate a threat of drones in the Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts. The Ukrainian GUR has claimed responsibility for a cyberattack against the Russian company "RegionTransService", which reportedly services Russian military freight, causing significant disruption to their operations. This attack, coinciding with the birthday of GUR head Kyrylo Budanov, demonstrates Ukraine's growing cyber warfare capabilities and their willingness to target entities supporting the Russian war effort.

The Ukrainian Air Force reports multiple drone movements across several regions, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts. Air defense systems are actively engaging these drones, particularly near Kyiv and Mykolaiv. There are also reports of missile activity, with a high-speed target reported on the border of Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts and a missile flying west of Voznesensk towards Pervomaisk.

Situation Report