Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 4, 2025, 13:47 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces are making significant advances, particularly around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka, while Ukrainian forces are conducting defensive operations and launching localized counterattacks. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with both sides employing extensive drone reconnaissance, targeting, and attack capabilities. The reported use of ATACMS missiles and the ongoing threat of Russian missile and drone strikes across multiple regions highlight the persistent danger to both military forces and civilian infrastructure. A cyberattack by Ukrainian hackers on a Russian company supporting railway operations for military logistics indicates a continued focus on disrupting Russian supply lines.

Key Developments (Latest Updates)

Sumy Oblast:

Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) near Kupyansk.
The Sever Group of Forces’ FPV drone team destroyed a camouflaged position of an AFU mortar in Sumy region.
Ukrainian Air Force reports that enemy drones are currently observed in the east of Poltava region, with a southwesterly course.

Donetsk Region:

Video evidence shows a Ukrainian FPV drone striking a Russian BMP-2 with infantry on top in the Donetsk region.
Ukrainian forces report that two tanks of the 60th Mechanized Brigade destroyed enemy-occupied buildings with direct fire before retreating.
Donetsk Oblast is under rocket attack.

Kursk Region:

Video shows drone footage from the 80th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces engaging Russian infantry in the Kursk region.
Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle in the Sumy region, near the Kursk border.
Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans.

Drone Warfare and Air Activity:

New Update: Three drones are moving from Kharkiv Oblast to Poltava Oblast.
New Update: Four drones are approaching Chuhuiv/Kharkiv. Anti-aircraft operations may be active.
New Update: Two drones are moving from the east of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Kharkiv Oblast.
New Update: One drone is in the Zlatopil area and has turned towards Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast.
New Update: New Shahed drones from the Black Sea are heading towards the south of Odesa Oblast.
New Update: Shahed drones are present in the south of Sumy Oblast, the east of Poltava Oblast, and the west of Kharkiv Oblast, moving northwards.
New Update: A new group of Shahed drones is heading from the Black Sea towards the south of the Odesa region.
New Update: New Shahed drones are heading towards Odesa Oblast, specifically towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district.
New Update: Three Shahed drones are approaching Bilyaivka either through or near the town. Three new Shahed drones are moving from the Black Sea towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, with one potentially heading towards Ovidiopol.
New Update: The Air Force reported:
- A new group of Shahed drones from the Black Sea heading towards the south of the Odesa region.
- Shahed drones in the south of the Odesa region heading north.
- Shahed drones in the south of the Kharkiv region heading northwest.
- Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from the north of the Kharkiv region heading towards the Poltava region.
- Drones in the east of the Poltava region heading towards Myrhorod.
- Shahed drones in the east of the Sumy region heading towards the Chernihiv region.
New Update: Three Shahed drones are heading towards Kurortne through Bilyaivka. One Shahed drone is circling at the intersection of the Sumy and Poltava regions. Two Shahed drones are moving from the Kharkiv region to the Poltava region. Three Shahed drones are in the Lozova area of the Kharkiv region, heading north.
3 drones via Bilyaivka are heading towards Kurortne. 1 drone is circling around the border of Sumy and Poltava oblasts. 2 drones are moving from Kharkiv to Poltava. 3 drones are in Lozova area, heading north.
New drones entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk, moving southwest.
Drones in eastern and western Poltava Oblast, moving west.
Drones in northeastern Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
Drones are reported in the center of Poltava Oblast, moving northwest, and on the west of Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. A drone is reported on the northeast of Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
City of Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast) is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the northeast.
Drones in the west of Poltava region, course - west / southwest;
Drones in the north of Sumy region, course - south-west;
Drones in the center of Chernihiv region, course - south / south-west;
Drones in the east of Kyiv region, course - west / north-west;
Drones on the border of Kirovohrad and Odesa regions, course - west.
Enemy drone is moving in the direction of Cherkasy from the southeast.
Video evidence shows the moment of a drone strike in the port of Ust-Luga, Leningrad Oblast.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest. Five drones near Konotop, moving southwest.
1 drone is approaching Boryspil. 2 drones are flying from Poltava region to Cherkasy. 1 drone is flying from Kirovohrad region to Vinnytsia. 3 drones are in Pryluky area, heading southwest. 3 new drones are flying through Shostka area, heading southwest.
3 drones via Bilyaivka are heading towards Kurortne. 1 drone is circling around the border of Sumy and Poltava oblasts. 2 drones are moving from Kharkiv to Poltava. 3 drones are in Lozova area, heading north.
Video shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself.

Missile Activity:

A missile threat is reported for Rostov and Krasnodar regions, with reports of over 10 enemy aircraft airborne. This indicates a potential major escalation in missile attacks.
Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of ballistic weapons from the east for regions where an air alert has been declared.

Other Significant Developments:

Ukrainian forces report confirmed losses of 44 enemy personnel, 11 artillery pieces, 14 armored vehicles, 7 attack UAVs, 4 reconnaissance UAVs, 3 boats, 1 quad bike, 2 Starlink terminals, 3 EW complexes, 4 generators, 4 communication antennas, 7 UAV control antennas, 6 dugouts/shelters, 3 firing positions, and 1 logistics storage site.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have carried out over 1,500 high-precision and drone strikes in 2024.
The report of oil from sunken Russian tankers reaching the shores of Sevastopol indicates an environmental impact of the conflict in the Black Sea.
The report of Russian forces taking control of the Shevchenkivske lithium deposit highlights the economic dimension of the conflict and the potential long-term consequences for Ukraine's resources.
The statement from the Hungarian Foreign Ministry criticizing Poland's decision not to invite the Hungarian ambassador to the EU handover ceremony highlights the ongoing political tensions within the EU regarding the conflict.

Updated Situation

Russian forces maintain offensive momentum, achieving significant gains, particularly in the Donetsk region around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal, attempting to consolidate their defenses while launching localized counterattacks. Drone warfare remains a critical component, with ongoing drone activity reported in multiple regions, including new threats in Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. The humanitarian situation is worsening, with reports of civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. The overall situation remains highly volatile, with intense fighting and potential for further escalation. The significant losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, if accurate, indicate a high level of attrition and suggest a conflict that is far from over. The developments in Russia's internal policies, the situation in Transnistria, and the EU's decision to withhold funds from Hungary add further layers of complexity to the broader geopolitical context. The new information about the missile threat in Rostov and Krasnodar regions significantly escalates the situation, indicating a potential widening of the conflict zone and an increased risk of large-scale missile attacks on these areas. The new video evidence of a drone strike in the port of Ust-Luga, Leningrad Oblast, confirms a significant attack on Russian infrastructure. The confirmation of Ukrainian drone units successfully repelling attacks by North Koreans, combined with the video evidence of North Korean and Russian troops' bodies, provides further evidence of North Korean involvement in the conflict. The new video evidence of Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to shoot down Russian drones demonstrates a new and innovative counter-drone tactic.

Situation Report