Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 4, 2025, 09:47 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely volatile, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region is the focal point of intense fighting, with significant Russian gains reported near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk. The liberation of Vozdvyzhenka near Pokrovsk is a critical development, bringing Russian forces closer to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway, a vital artery for Ukrainian logistics. Russian forces are intensifying their attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Russian forces have liberated Nadia in the Luhansk People's Republic. Ukrainian forces report they have successfully pushed Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with multiple drones shot down over Russian territory, including confirmed attacks in the Smolensk region targeting the "Avangard" missile manufacturing facility and repeated attacks in St. Petersburg. A new record number of drones (10) were shot down over Leningrad, Pskov, Kursk, and Voronezh oblasts. Reports from the Kursk and Bryansk regions indicate intensified fighting and increased use of drones by both sides. The use of electric scooters by Russian forces introduces a new tactical element, enhancing their mobility and elusiveness. A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, potentially bolstering Ukrainian defenses. However, the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th, although some deliveries may continue after that date. The Chinese military is reportedly studying the use of drones in the Ukraine conflict, indicating the growing importance of this technology in modern warfare.

Key Updates

Drone Warfare and Air Activity

• New Drone Attacks:
  • Ten drones were destroyed over the Leningrad, Pskov, Kursk, and Voronezh regions of Russia, with confirmation that one was shot down near the Gulf of Finland, after passing through Pskov Oblast. There are reports that these drones were engaged using a combination of air defense systems, electronic warfare (EW) systems, and small arms fire. This marks a record number of drones destroyed over multiple oblasts for a single night and morning.
  • Four drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region of Russia. Two additional enemy drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region during the day. A Russian jet-type drone was destroyed over the Bryansk region at night.
  • 16 Ukrainian drones were reportedly shot down over Russian territory overnight, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Ukrainian side confirms the number of downed drones but notes a discrepancy regarding the number of drones downed in the Smolensk region.
  • Five enemy drones were shot down over the Smolensk region of Russia, with confirmed reports suggesting the target may have been the "Avangard" missile manufacturing facility.
  • St. Petersburg is under a drone attack, with reports of at least one drone being shot down. Pulkovo Airport has implemented "Plan 'Carpet'" twice today, temporarily halting flights due to an unidentified aerial object. Pulkovo Airport has lifted temporary restrictions.
  • Military airfield "Baltimore" in Voronezh Oblast was attacked by at least 5 drones during the night of January 2nd.
• Air Superiority:
  • A video showcasing a Russian Su-35S fighter jet intercepting a Ukrainian Su-25 highlights Russia's efforts to maintain air superiority. The Su-35S is depicted using air-to-air missiles, demonstrating Russia's long-range precision engagement capabilities.
• Ukrainian Air Force Activity:
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast, with a threat of the use of air-launched weapons. Guided aerial bombs were reportedly used in Sumy region.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast by Russian tactical aviation.
• Attacks on Ukraine:
  • Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 34 out of 81 drones, 47 drones that failed to reach their targets, damaging private residences in Chernihiv and Sumy regions.
  • A fire station in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk region was damaged in a Russian attack, with no personnel injured.
  • A woman was killed in the Kyiv region due to an attack by drones, two other people were injured.

Ground Operations and Engagements

• Pokrovsk Direction:
  • Russian forces have liberated Vozdvyzhenka, a significant advance towards the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. The total advance in this area is reported as 3 km in depth, with an area of 2.31 sq km liberated.
  • Fighting continues near Myrolyubivka, with further advances near Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, and Zelene Pole.
  • Russian forces also expanded control north of Tymofiivka, advancing about 1.5 km.
  • Russian forces have intensified their attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway.
  • Ukrainian forces report they have successfully pushed Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reports that the 79th Air Assault Brigade has been actively targeting Russian forces in their area of responsibility, including troops and armored vehicles. The destruction of Russian assault groups and armored vehicles has also been reported.
• Summary by "Dva Mayora":
  • In the Kursk region, Russian forces are engaged in battles near Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Kruglenkoye, with ongoing assaults towards Viktorovka. The 106th Airborne Division is conducting active assault operations in the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Aviation and artillery are actively engaged, with the enemy suffering losses. The enemy is using FPV drones extensively.
  • In Chasiv Yar, fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant."
  • East of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), Russian forces have advanced in Vozdvyzhenka and continue their offensive to reach the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway.
  • Southwest of Pokrovsk, Russian forces are making progress in Novovasylivka. There are reports of attacks in the direction of Peschanoe-Volkovo-Kotlino, indicating a possible plan to encircle Pokrovsk from the southwest.
  • In Kurakhove, Russian forces are reportedly clearing the western part of the industrial zone.
  • On the Zaporizhzhia front, there are no significant changes, but Russian aviation and artillery continue to strike the enemy near Malaya Tokmachka and Orekhov.
• Krasnoarmeysk Direction:
  • Russian forces are advancing in Vozdvyzhenka.
  • Russian forces continue to attack to reach the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway.
• Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast: One person was killed and another injured in a "Grad" MLRS attack.
• Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions: Russian forces struck Ukrainian cities, causing civilian casualties. A two-year-old child and their mother were injured in an attack on Sloviansk. A 70-year-old man was injured in a missile attack on Synelnykove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• Chernihiv Oblast:
  • Russian forces carried out 32 attacks, with 100 explosions.
  • A triple missile strike, likely with Iskander-M missiles, hit Chernihiv.
  • Guided aerial bombs hit a town in Novhorod-Siverskyi district, damaging 5 homes.
  • UAV strikes hit Koriukivka district, damaging 4 homes and causing a hay fire.
  • A UAV strike in Chernihiv district destroyed a house and caused a fire.
• Kharkiv:
  • A 56-year-old man was injured due to an FPV drone hit in Zapadne, Kupiansk region. A 55-year-old man was also injured in an attack in Koza Lopan, Dergachiv region.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled two attacks near Vovchansk and six attacks near Kucherivka, Synkivka, and Zahryzove in the Kupiansk direction.
  • Ukrainian forces are defending and counterattacking. In the past 24 hours, 72 enemy soldiers were killed or wounded, and 67 pieces of equipment were destroyed or damaged.
  • Ukrainian forces destroyed 72 enemy shelters, 3 UAV launch positions, 4 ammunition storage sites, and 1 fuel storage site.
• Horlivka:
  • Ukrainian forces continued to shell Horlivka with cluster munitions, injuring 9 civilians.
• Shelling:
  • A Ukrainian drone attacked a civilian car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, injuring two civilians.

Naval Activity

• Black Sea: One Russian missile carrier is present, but without "Kalibr" missiles on board.
• Azov Sea: No Russian warships are present.
• Mediterranean Sea: Seven Russian warships are present, including two "Kalibr" missile carriers with a total of 22 missiles.
• Kerch Strait: Seven Russian ships passed through the Kerch Strait towards the Black Sea, all continuing towards the Bosphorus. One ship passed towards the Azov Sea, not originating from the Bosphorus.

Geopolitical and Other Developments

• US Politics: Donald Trump has accused Judge Juan Merchan of political attacks. Trump will also face trial on January 10th for allegedly bribing a porn star. The judge in the case stated that he is not inclined to sentence Trump to prison and that the sentence will be handed down even without a fine or probation.
• US Statements:
  • The US will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th. Some deliveries may continue after that date.
  • The US will announce a new military aid package for Ukraine in the coming days. The exact date and contents of the package are yet to be disclosed.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken stated that China warned Russia not to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
• Ukrainian Military Losses: The Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly lost up to 555 personnel in the "Western" zone of responsibility. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported significant enemy losses from February 24, 2022, to January 4, 2025: approximately 794,760 personnel (+1510 in the last day), 9,679 tanks (+2), 20,093 troop-carrying AFVs (+23), 21,578 artillery systems (+23), 1,257 MLRS, 369 aircraft, 331 helicopters (+1), 21,356 UAVs (+107), 3,006 cruise missiles (+3), 28 warships/boats, 1 submarine, 32,843 vehicles & fuel tanks (+73), 1,032 anti-aircraft systems, and 3,675 special equipment.
• US Arms Sale to Israel: The Biden administration intends to sell $8 billion worth of weapons to Israel, as reported by Axios.
• Belarus: Belarus has banned the sale of most pyrotechnics, possibly in response to Ukrainian special forces activities.
• Digital Profiles for Migrants in Russia: Russia will start creating digital profiles with biometric data for migrants entering the country from June 30, 2025.
• Tesla Cybertruck Explosion in Las Vegas: A US serviceman, Matthew Livelsberger, detonated a Tesla Cybertruck near the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, leaving a note claiming it was a "wake-up call." Reports suggest he may have served in Ukraine, Tajikistan, Georgia, and Congo.
• Phone Scams in Russia: Phone scammers in Russia are using absurd passwords like "Screech," "Raspberry," and "Martha" to coordinate money transfers with their victims.
• Russian Birth Rate Increase Measures: The Russian government will introduce a bill to use the image of a large family in advertising to increase birth rates.
• Corruption in Russia: The court seized several million rubles from the former deputy head of the government of the Omsk region, Kupriyanov, accused of taking bribes. A Russian court has also seized 10 million rubles from a developer of transport vehicles for the missile industry.
• Israel-Palestine Conflict:
  • Hospitals in the Gaza Strip are being targeted by Israeli military actions, according to the Russian Permanent Representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya.
  • The Indonesian Hospital, serving thousands, is no longer functioning. Al-Awda Hospital is half-destroyed, and the Kamal Adwan Hospital has been completely disabled due to Israeli attacks, endangering 75,000 Palestinians.
  • Nebenzya reported that 1,047 medical workers have been killed in Gaza.
• Chinese Military Drone Training: The Chinese military is reportedly studying the use of drones in the Ukraine conflict, as evidenced by a propaganda video showing simulated drone attacks, including FPV drone drops, from both stationary positions and moving vehicles. The Pentagon has noted the continuous growth of the Chinese military's overall readiness and skill.
• Use of Electric Scooters by Russian Forces: Russian military personnel are increasingly using electric scooters, motorcycles, and ATVs to move quickly along the front line, making them elusive to Ukrainian forces, according to The New York Times.
• Other:
  • Lada has become the most popular car brand in Russia in 2024.
  • "Roskachestvo" warned about the danger of buying antifreeze on the roadsides.
  • Scammers have started using e-mail or messengers to "summon" Russians to allegedly participate in a jury panel.
  • The dollar exchange rate is expected to rise within 0.5-1% in January, with a possible range of 42-42.3 hryvnia.
  • Yesterday in Chernihiv, Russians killed Oleksiy Galyonka, associate professor of the Ushynsky Institute. He was 72 years old. In March 2022, after the impact of Russian shells, his house burned down.
  • Slovakia will continue to supply Ukraine with electricity, according to a statement by the state operator SEPS. The company extended the contract with "Ukrenergo" for another 12 months.
  • The number of wounded from the shelling of Horlivka has increased to nine.
  • Zelensky is reportedly trying to convey the truth about the conflict's end, according to retired US Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis.
  • The first batch of French Dassault Mirage aircraft is expected to arrive in Ukraine in January 2025.
  • The Kremlin seeks Ukraine's capitulation and has not changed its conditions for ending the war, according to ISW.

Updated Situation

The military situation remains highly volatile, with Russian forces making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly with the liberation of Vozdvyzhenka near Pokrovsk. Drone warfare is escalating, with continued attacks deep within Russia, confirmed strikes on a strategically important missile manufacturing facility, and repeated disruptions at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Airport. A new record number of drones (10) were shot down over Leningrad, Pskov, Kursk, and Voronezh oblasts. The naval updates confirm the ongoing threat from the Black Sea, despite the absence of "Kalibr" missiles on the present carrier, and highlight a substantial Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean. The coming days will likely see continued intense fighting, particularly in the Donetsk region, and further drone attacks across multiple oblasts, including potential threats from the north and deeper into Russian territory. The destruction of a Ukrainian 155-mm wheeled self-propelled gun 2S22 "Bogdan" on the chassis of a MAZ-6317 is also a notable event, as it is a rare modification. The announcement of a new US military aid package for Ukraine in the coming days could potentially bolster Ukrainian defenses and influence the course of the conflict. Reports from the Kursk and Bryansk regions indicate intensified fighting and increased use of drones by both sides. The destruction of Ukrainian drones over Russian territory underscores the ongoing threat and Russia's efforts to counter it. The Chinese military is reportedly studying the use of drones in the Ukraine conflict, indicating the growing importance of drone warfare in modern conflicts. The new reports highlight that Russian forces are now intensifying their attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway, a critical artery for Ukrainian logistics. This development suggests a concerted effort to sever Ukrainian supply lines and isolate their forces in the region. Additionally, the reported use of electric scooters by Russian forces, as noted by The New York Times, introduces a new tactical element, enhancing their mobility and elusiveness on the battlefield. This adaptation could pose significant challenges for Ukrainian defenses, requiring them to adjust their strategies to counter this new form of rapid movement. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that the 79th Air Assault Brigade has been actively targeting Russian forces in their area of responsibility, including troops and armored vehicles. The destruction of Russian assault groups and armored vehicles has also been reported. Ukrainian forces report that they have successfully pushed Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. There are reports of an unusual downing of a Russian Supercam recon drone by the SIGNUM unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade in the enemy's deep rear. The new messages highlight the continued intensity of drone warfare, with reports that the night and morning of January 4th saw a record number of drones destroyed over multiple oblasts, including the use of electronic warfare and small arms fire. This underscores the persistent threat posed by drone attacks and the ongoing efforts to counter them. The Ukrainian Air Force also reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast, indicating continued aerial attacks in this region. A woman in the Kyiv region has died as a result of a drone attack, with two other people injured. The US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th, although some deliveries may continue after that date. This creates a potential issue for maintaining Ukraine's defensive and offensive capabilities in the short term. The upcoming Ramstein meeting, led by Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin, could be crucial in coordinating further military support from other allies. The new information about the triple missile strike on Chernihiv, resulting in six wounded and one fatality, further emphasizes the escalating situation in the region. The death of a 72-year-old educator in the attack adds to the civilian toll of the conflict. The reported increase in casualties from the shelling of Horlivka to nine also highlights the continued impact on civilian populations. The statement from retired US Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis regarding Zelensky's attempts to convey the truth about the conflict's end adds a new perspective to the geopolitical analysis. Additionally, the announcement that the first batch of French Dassault Mirage aircraft is expected to arrive in Ukraine in January 2025 could significantly enhance Ukraine's air capabilities. The ISW report confirming the Kremlin's unchanged stance on seeking Ukraine's capitulation underscores the ongoing challenges in achieving a negotiated resolution. The liberation of Nadia in the Luhansk People's Republic is a new development.