Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 4, 2025, 07:47 UTC

## Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. In the **Donetsk** region, significant gains are reported near **Pokrovsk**, **Kurakhove**, and **Toretsk**, with the liberation of **Vozdvyzhenka** near **Pokrovsk** being a key development. This advance brings Russian forces closer to the strategic **Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka** highway. Ukrainian forces report that they have successfully pushed Russian forces out of the southern part of **Novoielizavetivka**. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with multiple drones shot down over Russian territory, including confirmed attacks in the **Smolensk** region targeting the "Avangard" missile manufacturing facility. **St. Petersburg** has experienced repeated drone attacks, leading to the temporary closure of Pulkovo Airport under "Plan 'Carpet'". A third drone has been shot down over the **Leningrad** region.

A second drone has been shot down near the Gulf of Finland, after passing through **Pskov** Oblast. The naval updates confirm the ongoing threat from the **Black Sea**, despite the absence of "Kalibr" missiles on the present carrier, and highlight a substantial Russian naval presence in the **Mediterranean**.

Overnight, Ukraine was attacked by 81 drones. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 34 out of 81 drones, and 47 failing to reach their targets. Despite air defense efforts, drone attacks have resulted in damage to private residences in **Chernihiv** and **Sumy** regions. A woman in the **Kyiv** region was killed due to an attack by drones. The destruction of a Ukrainian 155-mm wheeled self-propelled gun 2S22 "Bogdan" on the chassis of a MAZ-6317 is also a notable event, as it is a rare modification. The announcement of a new US military aid package for Ukraine in the coming days could potentially bolster Ukrainian defenses and influence the course of the conflict. Reports from the **Kursk** and **Bryansk** regions indicate intensified fighting and increased use of drones by both sides. The destruction of Ukrainian drones over Russian territory underscores the ongoing threat and Russia's efforts to counter it.

The Chinese military is reportedly studying the use of drones in the Ukraine conflict, indicating the growing importance of drone warfare in modern conflicts. The new reports highlight that Russian forces are now intensifying their attacks on the **Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka** highway, a critical artery for Ukrainian logistics. Additionally, the reported use of electric scooters by Russian forces, as noted by The New York Times, introduces a new tactical element, enhancing their mobility and elusiveness on the battlefield. This adaptation could pose significant challenges for Ukrainian defenses, requiring them to adjust their strategies to counter this new form of rapid movement. There are reports of an unusual downing of a Russian Supercam recon drone by the SIGNUM unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade in the enemy's deep rear.

## Key Updates

### Drone Warfare and Air Activity

*   **New Drone Attacks:**
    *   A second drone was shot down in the **Leningrad** region of Russia, near the Gulf of Finland, moving through **Pskov** Oblast. A third drone was shot down over the **Leningrad** region.
    *   Four drones were destroyed over the **Bryansk** region of Russia. Two additional enemy drones were destroyed over the **Bryansk** region during the day. A Russian jet-type drone was destroyed over the **Bryansk** region at night.
    *   16 Ukrainian drones were reportedly shot down over Russian territory overnight, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Ukrainian side confirms the number of downed drones but notes a discrepancy regarding the number of drones downed in the **Smolensk** region.
    *   Five enemy drones were shot down over the **Smolensk** region of Russia, with confirmed reports suggesting the target may have been the "Avangard" missile manufacturing facility.
    *   **St. Petersburg** is under a drone attack, with reports of at least one drone being shot down. Pulkovo Airport has implemented "Plan 'Carpet'" twice today, temporarily halting flights due to an unidentified aerial object. Pulkovo Airport has lifted temporary restrictions.
*   **Air Superiority:**
    *   A video showcasing a Russian Su-35S fighter jet intercepting a Ukrainian Su-25 highlights Russia's efforts to maintain air superiority. The Su-35S is depicted using air-to-air missiles, demonstrating Russia's long-range precision engagement capabilities.
*   **Ukrainian Air Force Activity:**
    *   Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast, with a threat of the use of air-launched weapons. Guided aerial bombs were reportedly used in **Sumy** region.
*   **Attacks on Ukraine:**
    *   Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 34 out of 81 drones, 47 drones that failed to reach their targets, damaging private residences in **Chernihiv** and **Sumy** regions.
    *   A fire station in **Nikopol**, **Dnipropetrovsk** region was damaged in a Russian attack, with no personnel injured.
    *   A woman was killed in the **Kyiv** region due to an attack by drones.
    *   Ukrainian forces report the unusual downing of a Russian Supercam recon drone by the SIGNUM unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade in the enemy's deep rear.

### Ground Operations and Engagements

*   **Pokrovsk Direction:**
    *   Russian forces have liberated **Vozdvyzhenka**, a significant advance towards the **Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka** highway. The total advance in this area is reported as 3 km in depth, with an area of 2.31 sq km liberated.
    *   Fighting continues near **Myrolyubivka**, with further advances near **Vodyane Druhe**, **Baranivka**, and **Zelene Pole**.
    *   Russian forces also expanded control north of **Tymofiivka**, advancing about 1.5 km.
    *   Russian forces have intensified their attacks on the **Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka** highway.
    *   Ukrainian forces report they have successfully pushed Russian forces out of the southern part of **Novoielizavetivka**.
*   **Summary by "Dva Mayora":**
    *   In the **Kursk** region, Russian forces are engaged in battles near **Leonidovo**, **Alexandria**, and **Kruglenkoye**, with ongoing assaults towards **Viktorovka**. The 106th Airborne Division is conducting active assault operations in the forests near **Sverdlikovo** and **Lebedevka**. Aviation and artillery are actively engaged, with the enemy suffering losses. The enemy is using FPV drones extensively.
    *   In **Chasiv Yar**, fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant."
    *   East of **Pokrovsk** (**Krasnoarmeysk**), Russian forces have advanced in **Vozdvyzhenka** and continue their offensive to reach the **Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka** highway.
    *   Southwest of **Pokrovsk**, Russian forces are making progress in **Novovasylivka**. There are reports of attacks in the direction of **Peschanoe-Volkovo-Kotlino**, indicating a possible plan to encircle **Pokrovsk** from the southwest.
    *   In **Kurakhove**, Russian forces are reportedly clearing the western part of the industrial zone.
    *   On the **Zaporizhzhia** front, there are no significant changes, but Russian aviation and artillery continue to strike the enemy near **Malaya Tokmachka** and **Orekhov**.
*   **Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:** One person was killed and another injured in a "Grad" MLRS attack.
*   **Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions:** Russian forces struck Ukrainian cities, causing civilian casualties. A two-year-old child and their mother were injured in an attack on **Sloviansk**. A 70-year-old man was injured in a missile attack on **Synelnykove**, **Dnipropetrovsk** Oblast.
*  **Kharkiv:**
  * A 56-year-old man was injured due to an FPV drone hit in **Zapadne**, **Kupiansk** region. A 55-year-old man was also injured in an attack in **Koza Lopan**, **Dergachiv** region.
  * Ukrainian forces repelled two attacks near **Vovchansk** and six attacks near **Kucherivka**, **Synkivka**, and **Zahryzove** in the **Kupiansk** direction.

### Naval Activity

*   **Black Sea:** One Russian missile carrier is present, but without "Kalibr" missiles on board.
*   **Azov Sea:** No Russian warships are present.
*   **Mediterranean Sea:** Seven Russian warships are present, including two "Kalibr" missile carriers with a total of 22 missiles.
*   **Kerch Strait:** Seven Russian ships passed through the Kerch Strait towards the Black Sea, all continuing towards the Bosphorus. One ship passed towards the Azov Sea, not originating from the Bosphorus.

### Geopolitical and Other Developments

*   **US Politics:** Donald Trump has accused Judge Juan Merchan of political attacks. Trump will also face trial on January 10th for allegedly bribing a porn star. The judge in the case stated that he is not inclined to sentence Trump to prison and that the sentence will be handed down even without a fine or probation.
*   **Ukrainian Military Losses:** The Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly lost up to 555 personnel in the "Western" zone of responsibility. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported significant enemy losses from February 24, 2022, to January 4, 2025: approximately 794,760 personnel (+1510 in the last day), 9,679 tanks (+2), 20,093 troop-carrying AFVs (+23), 21,578 artillery systems (+23), 1,257 MLRS, 369 aircraft, 331 helicopters (+1), 21,356 UAVs (+107), 3,006 cruise missiles (+3), 28 warships/boats, 1 submarine, 32,843 vehicles & fuel tanks (+73), 1,032 anti-aircraft systems, and 3,675 special equipment.
*   **US Arms Sale to Israel:** The Biden administration intends to sell $8 billion worth of weapons to Israel, as reported by Axios.
*   **US Military Aid to Ukraine:** The US will announce a new military aid package for Ukraine in the coming days, according to John Kirby. The exact date and contents of the package are yet to be disclosed.
*   **Belarus:** Belarus has banned the sale of most pyrotechnics, possibly in response to Ukrainian special forces activities.
*   **Digital Profiles for Migrants in Russia:** Russia will start creating digital profiles with biometric data for migrants entering the country from June 30, 2025.
*   **Tesla Cybertruck Explosion in Las Vegas:** A US serviceman, Matthew Livelsberger, detonated a Tesla Cybertruck near the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, leaving a note claiming it was a "wake-up call." Reports suggest he may have served in Ukraine, Tajikistan, Georgia, and Congo.
*   **Phone Scams in Russia:** Phone scammers in Russia are using absurd passwords like "Screech," "Raspberry," and "Martha" to coordinate money transfers with their victims.
*   **Russian Birth Rate Increase Measures:** The Russian government will introduce a bill to use the image of a large family in advertising to increase birth rates.
*   **Corruption in Russia:** The court seized several million rubles from the former deputy head of the government of the Omsk region, Kupriyanov, accused of taking bribes. A Russian court has also seized 10 million rubles from a developer of transport vehicles for the missile industry.
*   **Israel-Palestine Conflict:**
    *   Hospitals in the Gaza Strip are being targeted by Israeli military actions, according to the Russian Permanent Representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya.
    *   The Indonesian Hospital, serving thousands, is no longer functioning. Al-Awda Hospital is half-destroyed, and the Kamal Adwan Hospital has been completely disabled due to Israeli attacks, endangering 75,000 Palestinians.
    *   Nebenzya reported that 1,047 medical workers have been killed in Gaza.
*   **Chinese Military Drone Training:** The Chinese military is reportedly studying the use of drones in the Ukraine conflict, as evidenced by a propaganda video showing simulated drone attacks, including FPV drone drops, from both stationary positions and moving vehicles. The Pentagon has noted the continuous growth of the Chinese military's overall readiness and skill.
*   **Use of Electric Scooters by Russian Forces:** Russian military personnel are increasingly using electric scooters, motorcycles, and ATVs to move quickly along the front line, making them elusive to Ukrainian forces, according to The New York Times.
*   **Lada** has become the most popular car brand in Russia in 2024.
*   "**Roskachestvo**" warned about the danger of buying antifreeze on the roadsides.
*   Scammers have started using e-mail or messengers to "summon" Russians to allegedly participate in a jury panel.
*   The dollar exchange rate is expected to rise within 0.5-1% in January, with a possible range of 42-42.3 hryvnia.
*   Yesterday in **Chernihiv**, Russians killed **Oleksiy Galyonka**, associate professor of the Ushynsky Institute. He was 72 years old. In March 2022, after the impact of Russian shells, his house burned down.
*   Slovakia will continue to supply Ukraine with electricity, according to a statement by the state operator SEPS. The company extended the contract with "Ukrenergo" for another 12 months.

## Updated Situation

The military situation remains highly volatile, with Russian forces making significant gains in the **Donetsk** region, particularly with the liberation of **Vozdvyzhenka** near **Pokrovsk**. Drone warfare is escalating, with continued attacks deep within Russia, confirmed strikes on a strategically important missile manufacturing facility, and repeated disruptions at **St. Petersburg's** Pulkovo Airport. A second drone has been shot down near the Gulf of Finland, after passing through **Pskov** Oblast. A third drone has been shot down over the **Leningrad** region. The naval updates confirm the ongoing threat from the **Black Sea**, despite the absence of "Kalibr" missiles on the present carrier, and highlight a substantial Russian naval presence in the **Mediterranean**. The reported use of passwords by phone scammers in Russia is a minor detail but reflects the broader context of ongoing criminal activity in the region, as does the report on corruption. The coming days will likely see continued intense fighting, particularly in the **Donetsk** region, and further drone attacks across multiple oblasts, including potential threats from the north and deeper into Russian territory. The destruction of a Ukrainian 155-mm wheeled self-propelled gun 2S22 "Bogdan" on the chassis of a MAZ-6317 is also a notable event, as it is a rare modification. The announcement of a new US military aid package for Ukraine in the coming days could potentially bolster Ukrainian defenses and influence the course of the conflict. Reports from the **Kursk** and **Bryansk** regions indicate intensified fighting and increased use of drones by both sides. The destruction of Ukrainian drones over Russian territory underscores the ongoing threat and Russia's efforts to counter it. The Chinese military is reportedly studying the use of drones in the Ukraine conflict, indicating the growing importance of drone warfare in modern conflicts. The new reports highlight that Russian forces are now intensifying their attacks on the **Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka** highway, a critical artery for Ukrainian logistics. This development suggests a concerted effort to sever Ukrainian supply lines and isolate their forces in the region. Additionally, the reported use of electric scooters by Russian forces, as noted by The New York Times, introduces a new tactical element, enhancing their mobility and elusiveness on the battlefield. This adaptation could pose significant challenges for Ukrainian defenses, requiring them to adjust their strategies to counter this new form of rapid movement. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that the 79th Air Assault Brigade has been actively targeting Russian forces in their area of responsibility, including troops and armored vehicles. The destruction of Russian assault groups and armored vehicles has also been reported. Ukrainian forces report that they have successfully pushed Russian forces out of the southern part of **Novoielizavetivka**. There are reports of an unusual downing of a Russian Supercam recon drone by the SIGNUM unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade in the enemy's deep rear.