Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 4, 2025, 06:17 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region. Significant gains have been made near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk, notably the liberation of Vozdvyzhenka near Pokrovsk, bringing Russian forces closer to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with multiple drones shot down over Russian territory, including confirmed attacks in the Smolensk region targeting the "Avangard" missile manufacturing facility. St. Petersburg has experienced repeated drone attacks, leading to the temporary closure of Pulkovo Airport under "Plan 'Carpet'". The naval situation indicates a continued Russian presence in the Black Sea with one missile carrier, although without "Kalibr" missiles on board, while the Azov Sea remains clear of enemy ships. The Mediterranean Sea sees a significant presence of Russian warships, including two "Kalibr" missile carriers with a reported total of 22 missiles.

Key Updates

Drone Warfare and Air Activity

New Drone Attacks:
- A drone was shot down in the Leningrad region of Russia, near the Gulf of Finland.
- Four drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region of Russia. Two additional enemy drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region during the day. A Russian jet-type drone was destroyed over the Bryansk region at night.
- 16 Ukrainian drones were reportedly shot down over Russian territory overnight, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Ukrainian side confirms the number of downed drones but notes a discrepancy regarding the number of drones downed in the Smolensk region.
- Five enemy drones were shot down over the Smolensk region of Russia, with confirmed reports suggesting the target may have been the "Avangard" missile manufacturing facility.
- St. Petersburg is under a drone attack, with reports of at least one drone being shot down. Pulkovo Airport has implemented "Plan 'Carpet'" twice today, temporarily halting flights due to an unidentified aerial object.
Air Superiority:
- A video showcasing a Russian Su-35S fighter jet intercepting a Ukrainian Su-25 highlights Russia's efforts to maintain air superiority. The Su-35S is depicted using air-to-air missiles, demonstrating Russia's long-range precision engagement capabilities.

Ground Operations and Engagements

Pokrovsk Direction: Russian forces have liberated Vozdvyzhenka, a significant advance towards the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. The total advance in this area is reported as 3 km in depth, with an area of 2.31 sq km liberated. Fighting continues near Myrolyubivka, with further advances near Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, and Zelene Pole. Russian forces also expanded control north of Tymofiivka, advancing about 1.5 km.
Summary by "Dva Mayora":
- In the Kursk region, Russian forces are engaged in battles near Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Kruglenkoye, with ongoing assaults towards Viktorovka. The 106th Airborne Division is conducting active assault operations in the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Aviation and artillery are actively engaged, with the enemy suffering losses. The enemy is using FPV drones extensively.
- In Chasiv Yar, fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant."
- East of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), Russian forces have advanced in Vozdvyzhenka and continue their offensive to reach the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway.
- Southwest of Pokrovsk, Russian forces are making progress in Novovasylivka. There are reports of attacks in the direction of Peschanoe-Volkovo-Kotlino, indicating a possible plan to encircle Pokrovsk from the southwest.
- In Kurakhove, Russian forces are reportedly clearing the western part of the industrial zone.
- On the Zaporizhzhia front, there are no significant changes, but Russian aviation and artillery continue to strike the enemy near Malaya Tokmachka and Orekhov.
Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast: One person was killed and another injured in a "Grad" MLRS attack.
Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions: Russian forces struck Ukrainian cities, causing civilian casualties. A two-year-old child and their mother were injured in an attack on Sloviansk.

Naval Activity

Black Sea: One Russian missile carrier is present, but without "Kalibr" missiles on board.
Azov Sea: No Russian warships are present.
Mediterranean Sea: Seven Russian warships are present, including two "Kalibr" missile carriers with a total of 22 missiles.
Kerch Strait: Seven Russian ships passed through the Kerch Strait towards the Black Sea, all continuing towards the Bosphorus. One ship passed towards the Azov Sea, not originating from the Bosphorus.

Geopolitical and Other Developments

US Politics: Donald Trump has accused Judge Juan Merchan of political attacks. Trump will also face trial on January 10th for allegedly bribing a porn star.
Ukrainian Military Losses: The Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly lost up to 555 personnel in the "Western" zone of responsibility. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported significant enemy losses from February 24, 2022, to January 4, 2025: approximately 794,760 personnel (+1510 in the last day), 9,679 tanks (+2), 20,093 troop-carrying AFVs (+23), 21,578 artillery systems (+23), 1,257 MLRS, 369 aircraft, 331 helicopters (+1), 21,356 UAVs (+107), 3,006 cruise missiles (+3), 28 warships/boats, 1 submarine, 32,843 vehicles & fuel tanks (+73), 1,032 anti-aircraft systems, and 3,675 special equipment.
US Arms Sale to Israel: The Biden administration intends to sell $8 billion worth of weapons to Israel, as reported by Axios.
US Military Aid to Ukraine: The US will announce a new military aid package for Ukraine in the coming days, according to John Kirby. The exact date and contents of the package are yet to be disclosed.
Belarus: Belarus has banned the sale of most pyrotechnics, possibly in response to Ukrainian special forces activities.
Digital Profiles for Migrants in Russia: Russia will start creating digital profiles with biometric data for migrants entering the country from June 30, 2025.
Tesla Cybertruck Explosion in Las Vegas: A US serviceman, Matthew Livelsberger, detonated a Tesla Cybertruck near the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, leaving a note claiming it was a "wake-up call." Reports suggest he may have served in Ukraine, Tajikistan, Georgia, and Congo.
Phone Scams in Russia: Phone scammers in Russia are using absurd passwords like "Screech," "Raspberry," and "Martha" to coordinate money transfers with their victims.
Russian Birth Rate Increase Measures: The Russian government will introduce a bill to use the image of a large family in advertising to increase birth rates.
Corruption in Russia: The court seized several million rubles from the former deputy head of the government of the Omsk region, Kupriyanov, accused of taking bribes. A Russian court has also seized 10 million rubles from a developer of transport vehicles for the missile industry.

Updated Situation

The military situation remains highly volatile, with Russian forces making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly with the liberation of Vozdvyzhenka near Pokrovsk. Drone warfare is escalating, with continued attacks deep within Russia, confirmed strikes on a strategically important missile manufacturing facility, and repeated disruptions at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Airport. The naval updates confirm the ongoing threat from the Black Sea, despite the absence of "Kalibr" missiles on the present carrier, and highlight a substantial Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean. The reported use of passwords by phone scammers in Russia is a minor detail but reflects the broader context of ongoing criminal activity in the region, as does the report on corruption. The coming days will likely see continued intense fighting, particularly in the Donetsk region, and further drone attacks across multiple oblasts, including potential threats from the north and deeper into Russian territory. The destruction of a Ukrainian 155-mm wheeled self-propelled gun 2S22 "Bogdan" on the chassis of a MAZ-6317 is also a notable event, as it is a rare modification. The announcement of a new US military aid package for Ukraine in the coming days could potentially bolster Ukrainian defenses and influence the course of the conflict. Reports from the Kursk and Bryansk regions indicate intensified fighting and increased use of drones by both sides. The destruction of Ukrainian drones over Russian territory underscores the ongoing threat and Russia's efforts to counter it. The Chinese military is reportedly studying the use of drones in the Ukraine conflict, as evidenced by a propaganda video showing simulated drone attacks. This indicates the growing importance of drone warfare in modern conflicts and the potential for other nations to adopt similar tactics. While seemingly unrelated, the image of the crescent moon and Venus being visible from multiple countries, including Russia and Ukraine, serves as a reminder of the shared environment and the broader context of the conflict.

Situation Report