Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 4, 2025, 05:17 UTC

Strategic Overview

Russian forces maintain offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region, focusing on Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk. A significant development is the liberation of Vozdvyzhenka near Pokrovsk, bringing Russian forces closer to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with multiple drones shot down over Russian territory, including 16 Ukrainian drones overnight. There are also unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian drone attacks in the Smolensk region targeting a potential missile manufacturing facility and a confirmed attack on a "Grad" MLRS in Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia oblast. The naval situation indicates a continued Russian presence in the Black Sea with one missile carrier, although without "Kalibr" missiles on board, while the Azov Sea remains clear of enemy ships. The Mediterranean Sea sees a significant presence of Russian warships, including two "Kalibr" missile carriers with a reported total of 22 missiles.

Key Updates

Drone Warfare and Air Activity

• New Drone Attacks:
  • A drone was shot down in the Leningrad region of Russia, near the Gulf of Finland.
  • Four drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region of Russia.
  • Two additional enemy drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region.
  • 16 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Russian territory overnight, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
  • Five enemy drones were shot down over the Smolensk region of Russia, with unconfirmed reports suggesting the target may have been the "Avangard" missile manufacturing facility.
• Air Superiority:
  • A video showcasing a Russian Su-35S fighter jet intercepting a Ukrainian Su-25 highlights Russia's efforts to maintain air superiority. The Su-35S is depicted using air-to-air missiles, demonstrating Russia's long-range precision engagement capabilities.

Ground Operations and Engagements

• Pokrovsk Direction: Russian forces have liberated Vozdvyzhenka, a significant advance towards the Pokrovsk – Konstantinovka highway. The total advance in this area is reported as 3 km in depth, with an area of 2.31 sq km liberated.
• Summary by "Dva Mayora":
  • In the Kursk region, Russian forces are engaged in battles near Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Kruglenkoye, with ongoing assaults towards Viktorovka.
  • In Chasiv Yar, fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant."
  • East of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), Russian forces have advanced in Vozdvyzhenka.
  • Southwest of Pokrovsk, Russian forces are making progress in Novovasylivka.
  • In Kurakhove, Russian forces are reportedly clearing the western part of the industrial zone.
  • On the Zaporizhzhia front, there are no significant changes.
• Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast: One person was killed and another injured in a "Grad" MLRS attack.

Naval Activity

• Black Sea: One Russian missile carrier is present, but without "Kalibr" missiles on board.
• Azov Sea: No Russian warships are present.
• Mediterranean Sea: Seven Russian warships are present, including two "Kalibr" missile carriers with a total of 22 missiles.
• Kerch Strait: Seven Russian ships passed through the Kerch Strait towards the Black Sea, all continuing towards the Bosphorus. One ship passed towards the Azov Sea, not originating from the Bosphorus.

Geopolitical and Other Developments

• US Politics: Donald Trump has accused Judge Juan Merchan of political attacks.
• Ukrainian Military Losses: The Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly lost up to 555 personnel in the "Western" zone of responsibility.
• US Arms Sale to Israel: The Biden administration intends to sell $8 billion worth of weapons to Israel, as reported by Axios.
• Belarus: Belarus has banned the sale of most pyrotechnics, possibly in response to Ukrainian special forces activities.
• Digital Profiles for Migrants in Russia: Russia will start creating digital profiles with biometric data for migrants entering the country from June 30, 2025.
• Tesla Cybertruck Explosion in Las Vegas: A US serviceman, Matthew Livelsberger, detonated a Tesla Cybertruck near the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, leaving a note claiming it was a "wake-up call." Reports suggest he may have served in Ukraine, Tajikistan, Georgia, and Congo.
• Phone Scams in Russia: Phone scammers in Russia are using absurd passwords like "Screech," "Raspberry," and "Martha" to coordinate money transfers with their victims. The Russian government will introduce a bill to use the image of a large family in advertising to increase birth rates.
• Corruption in Russia: The court seized several million rubles from the former deputy head of the government of the Omsk region, Kুপriyanov, accused of taking bribes.

Updated Situation

The military situation remains highly volatile, with Russian forces making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly with the liberation of Vozdvyzhenka near Pokrovsk. Drone warfare is escalating, with continued attacks deep within Russia and a potential strike on a strategically important missile manufacturing facility. The naval updates confirm the ongoing threat from the Black Sea, despite the absence of "Kalibr" missiles on the present carrier, and highlight a substantial Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean. The reported use of passwords by phone scammers in Russia is a minor detail but reflects the broader context of ongoing criminal activity in the region, as does the report on corruption. The coming days will likely see continued intense fighting, particularly in the Donetsk region, and further drone attacks across multiple oblasts, including potential threats from the north and deeper into Russian territory. The destruction of a Ukrainian 155-mm wheeled self-propelled gun 2S22 "Bogdan" on the chassis of a MAZ-6317 is also a notable event, as it is a rare modification.