Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 3, 2025, 23:17 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces intensifying their offensive operations, particularly in the Donetsk region, alongside an expanded use of drone warfare across multiple oblasts. Key areas of conflict include Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Kurakhove, and the northern regions of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kyiv Oblasts. Ukrainian forces are actively countering Russian advances, employing air defense systems and their own drone capabilities to target enemy positions and equipment. The use of ATACMS missiles by Ukrainian forces in the Belgorod region marks a notable escalation. There are new reports of drone activity in Zhytomyr and Vasylkiv, indicating a broadening threat across the country.

Key Updates

Drone Warfare Intensification

• Zhytomyr and Vasylkiv: New reports indicate drone activity in Zhytomyr and Vasylkiv areas, with Ukrainian air defenses actively engaging hostile drones. Residents are urged to remain in shelters.
• Zhytomyr Oblast: Reports indicate a new threat of hostile drone attacks, with two drones reported near Korosten and movement of drones north of Zhytomyr heading west.
• Nationwide Drone Activity: Drone activity continues in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Vinnytsia, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts.
• Ukrainian Drone Operations: The 41st Mechanized Brigade reported successful strikes on Russian equipment in the Kursk region, destroying vehicles and demonstrating the effectiveness of their drone operations.
• Russian Drone Tactics: Over 300 drones have been used by Russia in the first three days of the year. Russian forces are using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions, particularly in the Kurakhove direction.

Ground Operations and Engagements

• Toretsk: Russian forces are reportedly using civilian disguises to infiltrate Ukrainian positions and are suspected of mining defended buildings. Some of these forces are believed to be former prisoners. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with Russian forces making advances.
• Pokrovsk: This area remains the hottest point, with 34 Russian attempts to breach Ukrainian defenses. Five combat clashes are still ongoing. Ukrainian forces report neutralizing 304 Russian troops and destroying a significant amount of equipment.
• Krasnoarmiisk Direction: Fighting continues near Promin and Myroliubivka. Russian forces are advancing towards Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, and Zelene Pole from Vozdvyzhenka. North of Tymofiivka, Russian forces advanced 1.5 km along the road towards the T-0504 highway.
• Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles continue near Novovasylivka and Uspenivka. Russian assault units are attacking Nadiia from Novoelizavetivka and expanding control towards Sribne, aiming for the rear of Yasenove.

Geopolitical and Other Developments

• Restrictions at Pulkovo Airport: Restrictions were introduced at Pulkovo airport in St. Petersburg, with three aircraft circling nearby. Passengers reported delays of about an hour. The restrictions have impacted flight operations, indicating a potential security concern or military activity in the area.
• Explosion in Rostov: An explosion with a powerful flash was reported in one of the districts of Rostov. Video footage confirms the incident.
• Casualty Reports: Ukrainian President Zelensky reported that over 300 drones and 20 missiles were used by Russia against Ukraine in the first three days of the year.
• Belgorod Region: Ukrainian forces launched ATACMS missiles targeting the Belgorod region, resulting in one injury in the village of Prelestnoye and damage to power lines in Prokhorovka and a gas pipeline in Mikhailovka.
• NATO Readiness: A Ukrainian official, Mykhailo Podolyak, claimed that NATO is unprepared for a potential war with Russia and that Ukraine is the only country capable of defeating Russia.

Additional Updates

• Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively working, particularly in Kyiv, engaging drones. Several explosions have been reported in Kyiv.
• Russian Military Tactics: Reports suggest that Russian forces are adapting their tactics, using e-scooters, motorcycles, and ATVs to enhance mobility and complicate targeting by Ukrainian forces.
• Drone Strikes in Sumy Oblast: An "Iskander-M" missile strike was reported in the Yunakivka area of Sumy Oblast, resulting in the destruction of 24 pickup trucks, 18 armored vehicles, and over 200 Ukrainian servicemen.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine is characterized by a significant escalation in drone warfare and continued intense ground engagements. Russian forces are making advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Kurakhove. Ukrainian forces are actively countering these advances, using their own drone capabilities and air defense systems. The reported use of ATACMS missiles by Ukrainian forces in the Belgorod region and the ongoing drone attacks in various oblasts, including Zhytomyr and Vasylkiv, highlight the expanding scope of the conflict. The statements regarding NATO's readiness and the strategic importance of Ukraine in countering Russia add a geopolitical dimension to the ongoing military operations. The destruction caused by the "Iskander-M" missile strike in Sumy Oblast and the reported casualties underscore the severe impact of the conflict on military personnel and equipment. The new reports of drone activity near Zhytomyr and Vasylkiv indicate a broadening threat, with Ukrainian air defenses actively engaged.