Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 3, 2025, 22:17 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine is marked by a continued escalation in Russian attacks, particularly in the northern regions, with a significant focus on drone warfare. Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kyiv Oblasts are experiencing intense military activity, highlighted by numerous drone movements and engagements. Ukrainian air defenses are actively countering these threats, with reports indicating that over 300 drones and 20 missiles have been used by Russia in the first three days of the year. The Donetsk region remains a focal point of the conflict, with intense fighting around Pokrovsk and Toretsk. The situation is further complicated by the extensive use of drones by both sides, with Ukrainian forces reporting successful engagements against Russian drones.

Key Updates

Drone Warfare Intensification

• Kyiv: Air defense systems are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of several explosions in the city. The debris from downed drones has caused damage, and clearance operations are ongoing.
• Zhytomyr Oblast: A new threat of hostile drone attacks has been reported, adding to the already widespread drone activity across multiple oblasts. Two drones are reported to be heading towards Malyn, and two more towards Narodychi.
• Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava Oblasts: Movement of hostile drones continues to be detected, with reports of drones moving in various directions, including south, west, and southwest. Reports indicate:
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Two drones are heading towards Varva.
  • Sumy Oblast: Two drones are heading towards Romny, and one towards Lypova Dolyna.
  • Poltava Oblast: Three drones are heading towards Pyriatyn, and one towards Lubny.
  • Kyiv Oblast: Three drones are maneuvering near Chernobyl.
  • Cherkasy Oblast: One drone is heading towards Chornobai.
• Nationwide Drone Activity: Reports continue to indicate drone activity in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Vinnytsia, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts.
• Ukrainian Drone Operations: Ukrainian forces are actively using drones to target Russian positions, personnel, and equipment. A video from the 77th Brigade reportedly shows the successful targeting of a Russian soldier on a motorcycle. Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka, destroying Russian equipment and capturing Russian soldiers.
• Russian Drone Tactics: Russian forces are reportedly using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kurakhove direction. Reports indicate a high number of drone attacks, with over 300 drones used by Russia in the first three days of the year.

Ground Operations and Engagements

• Toretsk: Russian forces are reportedly dressing in civilian clothes and attempting to infiltrate Ukrainian positions. They are also suspected of mining buildings defended by Ukrainian forces. Some of these forces are believed to be former prisoners.
• Pokrovsk: This area remains the hottest point, with 34 Russian attempts to breach Ukrainian defenses reported. Five combat clashes are still ongoing. Ukrainian forces report neutralizing 304 Russian troops and destroying a significant amount of equipment in this area.
• Belgorod Region: Russian forces launched ATACMS missiles, with Ukrainian and Russian sources confirming the attacks. Several aerial targets were reportedly shot down over the Prokhorovsky district, resulting in one injury.
• Krasnoarmiisk Direction: Fighting continues near Promin and Myroliubivka. Russian forces are advancing towards Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, and Zelene Pole from Vozdvyzhenka. North of Tymofiivka, Russian forces advanced 1.5 km along the road towards the T-0504 highway.
• Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles continue near Novovasylivka and Uspenivka. Russian assault units are attacking Nadiia from Novoelizavetivka and expanding control towards Sribne, aiming for the rear of Yasenove.

Geopolitical and Other Developments

• Restrictions at Pulkovo Airport: Restrictions have been introduced at Pulkovo airport in St. Petersburg, with three aircraft circling nearby. Passengers report delays of about an hour.
• Explosion in Rostov: An explosion with a powerful flash was reported in one of the districts of Rostov.
• Casualty Reports: Ukrainian President Zelensky reported that over 300 drones and 20 missiles were used by Russia against Ukraine in the first three days of the year.

Additional Updates

• Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively working in Kyiv, engaging drones, particularly on the left bank of the city. Several explosions have been reported in Kyiv, indicating ongoing air attacks.
• Russian Military Tactics: Reports suggest that Russian forces are adapting their tactics, using e-scooters, motorcycles, and ATVs to enhance mobility and complicate targeting by Ukrainian forces.
• Drone Strikes in Sumy Oblast: An "Iskander-M" missile strike was reported in the Yunakivka area of Sumy Oblast, resulting in the destruction of 24 pickup trucks, 18 armored vehicles, and over 200 Ukrainian servicemen.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with a significant escalation in drone warfare, particularly in the northern regions. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging Russian drones, with reports of numerous drones over Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. The use of ATACMS missiles by Russian forces in the Belgorod region marks a notable escalation, with reports of one injury due to the attack. The Donetsk region, especially Pokrovsk and Toretsk, continues to be a major area of conflict, with reports of ongoing battles and Russian advances. Ukrainian forces are actively countering Russian advances, employing their own drones to target enemy positions and equipment. The reported adaptation of Russian tactics, including the use of e-scooters and ATVs, presents new challenges for Ukrainian defenses. The restrictions at Pulkovo airport and the explosion in Rostov add further complexity to the situation, reflecting the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict. Ukrainian President Zelensky's report of over 300 drones and 20 missiles used by Russia in the first three days of the year highlights the intensity of the ongoing attacks.