Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 3, 2025, 21:17 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine is characterized by a significant escalation in Russian attacks, particularly in the northern regions of Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts. Missile strikes, including the use of ATACMS in the Belgorod region, and widespread drone attacks are the primary features of the current offensive. The Donetsk region remains a focal point, with intense fighting around Pokrovsk and Toretsk, where Russian forces are reportedly dressing in civilian clothes and attempting to infiltrate Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian forces report 138 combat clashes in the last 24 hours, with a focus on repelling attacks and inflicting damage on Russian forces through extensive drone warfare. Air defense systems are active across multiple regions, including Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Belgorod.

Key Updates

Escalation in Northern Ukraine and Belgorod

Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts continue to experience intense military activity, with numerous reports of drone movements and engagements.
Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging drones in these regions.
Russian forces launched ATACMS missiles in the Belgorod region, with Ukrainian and Russian sources confirming the attacks. The effectiveness of these strikes is currently unclear, with reports of most or all being shot down.
Air defense systems are actively working in the Belgorod region.

Continued Fighting in Donetsk Region

Pokrovsk direction remains the hottest area, with 34 Russian attempts to breach Ukrainian defenses reported. Five combat clashes are still ongoing. Ukrainian forces report neutralizing 304 Russian troops and destroying a significant amount of equipment in this area.
In Toretsk, Russian forces are reportedly dressing in civilian clothes and attempting to infiltrate Ukrainian positions. They are also suspected of mining buildings defended by Ukrainian forces. Some of these forces are believed to be former prisoners.
Russian forces continue to use FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kurakhove direction.

Intensified Drone Warfare

Drone activity remains extremely high across multiple oblasts, with reports of drones in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Vinnytsia, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts.
Ukrainian forces report purchasing an additional 250 drones today, bringing the total to 133,504 FPV drones.
Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging Russian drones, with reports of drones shot down near Kyiv and in the Mykolaiv region.
Ukrainian forces continue to effectively use drones to target Russian positions, personnel, and equipment, with reports of successful strikes in multiple directions.
A video from the 77th Brigade reportedly shows the successful targeting of a Russian soldier on a motorcycle.
A video allegedly shows Russian soldiers in Toretsk placing a wounded soldier in a position vulnerable to drone attacks, highlighting the brutality of the conflict.
Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka, destroying Russian equipment and capturing Russian soldiers.
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault near Klishchiivka, destroying Russian equipment and personnel.
Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk.
Ukrainian air defense forces successfully detected and neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv.
Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Вовки Да Вінчі" unit, are using drones to target Russian military equipment and personnel in the Pokrovsk direction.
Ukrainian drone operators targeted and killed a Russian soldier in the Pokrovsk direction.
Russian forces are reportedly using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
Ukrainian forces report destroying 3 Russian BTRs.
A Ukrainian drone hit a civilian man walking down the street in Kupyansk.
Ukrainian forces report the movement of hostile drones in Zhytomyr Oblast, heading towards them from Kyiv Oblast.
Ukrainian forces report the movement of hostile drones in Kyiv Oblast, air defense is active.
Movement of hostile drones has been detected in the Sumy region, moving in a southerly direction.
Movement of hostile drones has been detected in the Chernihiv region, moving in a westerly direction.
Movement of hostile drones has been detected in the Kyiv region, moving in a southwesterly direction.
Movement of hostile drones has been detected in the Zhytomyr region, moving in a westerly direction.
A Ukrainian drone "Vampir" of the "Hydra" unit of the 137th Separate Marine Battalion remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria, Donetsk Oblast.
Fighters of the 1st separate battalion of the Marine Corps named after the Hero of Ukraine, awarded the Order "For Courage" III degree, Mikhailo Travkin, destroyed a Russian position using an FPV drone. The operation also resulted in the destruction of two Russian soldiers.
New Update: Three drones are moving from Kharkiv Oblast to Poltava Oblast.
New Update: Four drones are approaching Chuhuiv/Kharkiv. Anti-aircraft operations may be active.
New Update: Two drones are moving from the east of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Kharkiv Oblast.
New Update: One drone is in the Zlatopil area and has turned towards Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast.
New Shahed drones from the Black Sea are heading towards the south of Odesa Oblast.
Shahed drones are present in the south of Sumy Oblast, the east of Poltava Oblast, and the west of Kharkiv Oblast, moving northwards.
A new group of Shahed drones is heading from the Black Sea towards the south of the Odesa region.
New Shahed drones are heading towards Odesa Oblast, specifically towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district.
Three Shahed drones are approaching Bilyaivka either through or near the town. Three new Shahed drones are moving from the Black Sea towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, with one potentially heading towards Ovidiopol.
The Air Force reported:
- A new group of Shahed drones from the Black Sea heading towards the south of the Odesa region.
- Shahed drones in the south of the Odesa region heading north.
- Shahed drones in the south of the Kharkiv region heading northwest.
- Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from the north of the Kharkiv region heading towards the Poltava region.
- Drones in the east of the Poltava region heading towards Myrhorod.
- Shahed drones in the east of the Sumy region heading towards the Chernihiv region.
Three Shahed drones are heading towards Kurortne through Bilyaivka. One Shahed drone is circling at the intersection of the Sumy and Poltava regions. Two Shahed drones are moving from the Kharkiv region to the Poltava region. Three Shahed drones are in the Lozova area of the Kharkiv region, heading north.
3 drones are moving through Bilyaivka towards Kurortne. 1 drone is circling around the border of Sumy and Poltava oblasts. 2 drones are moving from Kharkiv to Poltava. 3 drones are in Lozova area, heading north.
Operators of the FPV group "Sever" hit three Ukrainian Armed Forces dugouts with three kamikaze drones in the Kharkiv direction.
Update: 3 drones via Rozdilna are heading towards Odesa Oblast.
Update: 2 drones via Bilyaivka are heading towards Odesa.
Update: 1 new drone from the Black Sea is heading towards Ovidiopol.
Update: 1 drone north of Nizhyn, moving towards Chernihiv.
Update: 1 drone is heading via Konotop towards Sumy.
Update: 1 drone near Pryluky, moving northwest.
Update: 1 drone turned towards Odesa, expect loud activity.
One drone from the Odesa region is flying towards the Vinnytsia region. One drone is approaching Rozdilna. One drone is flying towards Odesa. The northern direction is being clarified.
One drone is flying from the Mykolaiv region towards the Odesa region, to the north of the region.
Several Shahed drones detected moving from the Black Sea towards Chornomorske and Pivdenne.
A group of Shahed drones is moving north in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Several Shahed drones are in the center, north, south, and east of Kharkiv Oblast, moving northwest.
A new group of drones from Sumy Oblast is moving towards Poltava Oblast.
A high-speed target is reported on the border of Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts.
The missile is flying west of Voznesensk towards Pervomaisk.
Ukrainian Air Force reports updates on the movement of Russian drones:
- New drones entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk, moving southwest.
- Drones in eastern and western Poltava Oblast, moving west.
- Drones in northeastern Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
- Drones are reported in the center of Poltava Oblast, moving northwest, and on the west of Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. A drone is reported on the northeast of Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest. Five drones near Konotop, moving southwest.
Enemy drone is moving in the direction of Cherkasy from the southeast.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of drones in Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to the south-west and west, in Chernihiv Oblast to the west, and new groups in the east of Kharkiv Oblast to the west.
Drone movement has been detected in the Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions, specifically near Nizhyn.
Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot. The operation involved a group of attack drones, including "Baba Yaga" heavy bombers and FPV drones. The T-90 tank was destroyed by a direct hit from an FPV drone, while the ammunition depot was destroyed by a "Baba Yaga" drone.
Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
Several Shahed drones detected moving from the Black Sea towards Chornomorske and Pivdenne.
A group of Shahed drones is moving north in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Several Shahed drones are in the center, north, south, and east of Kharkiv Oblast, moving northwest.
Up to 10 drones and several FPV drones were involved in the recent attack.
Ukrainian air defense systems engaged multiple Russian drones near Nechaiane, Ochakiv, and Velyka Korenykha.
Russian drones were launched from Crimea.
Up to 10 drones were reported over Ochakiv, with some shot down. One drone was reported near Parutino.
New enemy drone attacks reported in Ochakiv from the Black Sea.
Ukrainian forces report that one Russian warship is present in the Black Sea, but it is not equipped with "Kalibr" missiles. No Russian warships were detected in the Azov Sea.
Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down a Ukrainian missile over Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian air defense systems are actively engaging Russian drones, with reports of "first drones shot down" in the Mykolaiv region.
Three drones are confirmed to be moving through Kutsurub in a northerly direction.
One drone is reported near the Korabelnyi district of Mykolaiv, with potential for loud noise.
One drone is reported in the Halytsynove area.
Two drones are circling near the Kosa area.
One drone is flying from Velyka Korenykha towards the Zavodskyi/Centralnyi district of Mykolaiv, with active engagement reported.
An enemy drone is confirmed to be heading towards Mykolaiv from the south.
In the Kursk border area, reconnaissance of the Anvar special forces is operating, which has a lot of different FPV drones. These are fiber-optic drones, radio-controlled drones, and drones with AI, said the commander of the reconnaissance detachment with the call sign Beret to RT military commander Alexander Yaremchuk. At 01:00 and 01:26 - this is the current situation in the border area and this is how the enemy behaves. At 02:01 - the scouts send a "bird" with fiber optics to the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is useless to influence it with electronic warfare. At 02:47, 02:51, 02:56 - successful operation of drones.
A new FPV-drone "Hortenzia" with support of management for optical fiber started to be used.
Video evidence of a drone operator targeting an individual soldier lying in a damaged structure.
The soldier in the video appears to be unresponsive, suggesting he is either dead or severely wounded. The presence of the pink armband might provide further clues to his unit or affiliation. The drone footage and targeting reticle suggest continued surveillance of the area, indicating the potential for further strikes or monitoring of enemy positions. The video provides valuable intelligence regarding enemy casualties and battle damage assessment.
Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Ronins" unit of the 65th Mechanized Brigade, are actively working to destroy enemy logistics using drones.

Geopolitical Developments

The 25th "Ramstein" meeting will take place on January 7th, focusing on providing Ukraine with more air defense capabilities.
Reports of power outages in Pridnestrovie (Transnistria).

Other Significant Developments

A video from the "Alex Parker Returns" Telegram channel criticizes a Russian official for allegedly supporting migrants over Russians in a discussion about crime statistics.
The "Оперативний ЗСУ" Telegram channel reports on a fight between Hamas and ISIS prisoners in an Israeli jail.
The "Старше Эдды" Telegram channel discusses a hand-to-hand fight between a Yakut soldier and a Ukrainian soldier, highlighting the Yakut soldier's bravery.
The "STERNENKO" Telegram channel reports that Slovak Prime Minister Fico was found in Vietnam after a visit to the Kremlin, with a video threatening to limit aid to Ukrainians filmed in a 5-star hotel in Hanoi.
A New York court has scheduled the sentencing of former US President Donald Trump for January 10th in a case involving financial document forgery.
A video from the "Alex Parker Returns" Telegram channel shows an interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin, where he advises being "strong" in response to border provocations.

Updated Situation

Russian forces are intensifying their offensive, employing widespread drone attacks and missile strikes, particularly in northern Ukraine and the Belgorod region. The use of ATACMS missiles by Russian forces marks a significant escalation. The Donetsk region remains a hotspot, with heavy fighting around Pokrovsk and Toretsk. Ukrainian forces are actively engaging Russian drones and employing their own drones to inflict damage on Russian troops and equipment. The reported purchase of additional drones by Ukraine underscores the importance of drone warfare in this conflict. Geopolitical developments, including the upcoming "Ramstein" meeting and reports about the Slovak Prime Minister, add further complexity to the situation. The internal Russian political situation, as highlighted by criticisms of officials and discussions about crime statistics, also warrants attention. The reported power outages in Pridnestrovie could further destabilize the region. The sentencing of former US President Donald Trump may have indirect implications for the conflict, depending on his future political involvement and stance on the war. The interview with President Putin, where he emphasizes strength in response to border issues, signals a continued hardline approach by Russia.

Situation Report