Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 3, 2025, 17:17 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine is marked by a significant escalation in the Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, with Russian forces intensifying attacks through missile strikes, drone attacks, and ground assaults. The Donetsk region remains a focal point, with Russian forces making incremental gains around Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. Drone warfare is a dominant feature, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging Russian drones and missiles across multiple oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force has warned of enemy attack UAVs heading towards Chernihiv and Nizhyn from the northeast. There is currently a threat of missile attacks on Synelnykove and Dnipro/Samar.

Key Updates

Escalation in Northern Ukraine

Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts are experiencing a significant escalation in military activity.
Multiple explosions have been reported in Chernihiv, with at least four strikes confirmed. A triple missile strike on the outskirts of Chernihiv targeted residential areas, resulting in significant damage and one confirmed civilian death. An update confirms four people were injured, and one was killed. Two residential buildings were destroyed. The State Emergency Service of Ukraine (DSNS) showed the aftermath of the Russian attack on Chernihiv, confirming one death and several injuries.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports high-speed targets in Sumy Oblast, indicating potential missile attacks and enemy attack UAVs heading towards Chernihiv and Nizhyn.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported a "Shahed" drone moving towards Kyiv and Vyshhorod.
The town of Lgov in the Kursk region of Russia has been shelled, resulting in one death in the village of Obesta.
Russian air defense forces claim to have destroyed an aircraft-type UAV over the Bryansk region and another drone.
Two drones are approaching Chernihiv, with the possibility of more noise in the area. Two drones from the Chernihiv Oblast are flying towards the north of the Kyiv Oblast. One drone is approaching Vyshhorod.
The Ukrainian Air Force has issued a warning for Kyiv and Vyshhorod regarding an approaching enemy drone from the northeast.

Continued Russian Advances in Donetsk Region

Russian forces are consolidating their positions in Kurakhove and pushing towards Pokrovsk. The potential fall of Kurakhove could significantly alter the balance of power in the Donetsk region.
Ukrainian forces are attempting to resist the Russian advance.
Russian forces carried out an airstrike on Sloviansk, resulting in four injuries, including a two-year-old boy. His mother is currently in critical condition. 15 houses were damaged.

Intensified Drone Warfare

Drone activity remains high across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad.
Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging Russian drones. A drone was reported approaching Starokostiantyniv from the northeast.
New groups of drones were reported in Dnipro and Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian forces reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Vremivka direction using drone-dropped munitions, and the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have destroyed 11 Ukrainian naval drones.
Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction.
Russian forces successfully used FPV drones to stop a Ukrainian tank and BMP, preventing a rotation.
A Ukrainian ZIL vehicle with a ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft gun was destroyed by Russian drone operators near Krasnoe.
Ukrainian drone operators from the 47th brigade "Magura" report that Russian forces are attempting to storm Ukrainian troops in Kurakhove. Ukrainian forces are working 24/7 to destroy the enemy on the approaches to their positions. A video shows the work of an operator from the 47th brigade. The video shows multiple drone attacks using thermal imaging.
Ukrainian drone operators from the 66th Mechanized Brigade report successful targeting of Russian soldiers, as evidenced by thermal imaging footage.
Ukrainian forces report the destruction of two "Shahed" drones by the 35th Sumy Regiment of the National Guard.
Ukrainian forces released a compilation video highlighting their successful drone operations, destroying Russian equipment and personnel, specifically targeting an antenna complex and a "Bukhmobile".
A Russian drone attack on Ukrainian positions using FPV drones resulted in five casualties.
Russian forces report destroying a Ukrainian radar station AN/TPQ-36 in the Kherson direction.
The "Spartan" unit of the Southern Defense Forces is actively hunting for Russian Starlink terminals using drones.
Drone operators of the "Achilles" unit of the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade have reportedly hit over 2,000 targets per month.
Drone operators of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division discovered and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, ensuring the security of Russian positions from enemy drone strikes.
Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian command post near the Toretsk mine.
Russian forces are using FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian defenses, as shown by a video of the destruction of a Ukrainian command post and a 120-mm mortar position.
A Ukrainian soldier recounts a combat incident, saying he placed a grenade on a captured Ukrainian soldier to hasten his death, and then shot the soldier three more times and then one more time "for good measure".
A Russian soldier recounts planting a flag near a Ukrainian headquarters and engaging in hand-to-hand combat, resulting in the destruction of enemy supplies.
Russian forces claim to have thwarted a Ukrainian rotation using an FPV drone near a settlement in the Kharkiv region.

Missile Attacks

Reports indicate the use of high-speed missiles, potentially KN-23 type, targeting Chernihiv.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports a missile threat in areas with air raid alerts.
A guided aerial missile was reported heading towards Dnipro, changing course to Zaporizhzhia, then towards Samara. Another missile was reported heading towards Pavlohrad.
The air alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have carried out a massive strike and 12 group strikes with high-precision weapons and UAVs, targeting Ukrainian military-industrial complex facilities, airfields, arsenals, and other targets.
A guided aerial missile is heading towards Dnipro/Samar.

Geopolitical Developments

Kazakh President Tokayev's statement that Russia is "invincible in a military sense" is a significant endorsement of Russian military power.
Reports of Elon Musk communicating with "Putin" and interfering in German elections add complexity to the geopolitical landscape.
The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, will not attend a gala concert in Warsaw due to a sudden illness, potentially linked to pressure from Polish farmers.
Russian Permanent Representative to the UN, Nebenzya, stated that Russia will veto any attempts to reform the UN Security Council that include Germany and Japan.
Warsaw and Kyiv have launched new joint arms enterprises on the territory of Poland, including drone production and tank repair.
The UN has equated Ukraine and Russia in human rights violations, a conclusion strongly rejected by the Ukrainian Ombudsman, Dmytro Lubinets.
The Polish presidential elections in 2025 are described as a "decisive moment" for the country's political future, with potential implications for its foreign policy and relations with NATO and the EU.
The US will announce a new military aid package for Ukraine in the coming days.

Other Significant Developments

A physical altercation between a local resident and a military serviceman in the Sumy region resulted in the resident's death, highlighting potential internal tensions.
The cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine is expected to lead to significant financial losses for Kyiv.
Flydubai has suspended flights to Sochi and Mineralnye Vody until January 8 and 9, respectively, possibly due to security concerns.
The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration reports that reconstruction of a residential building damaged by enemy action is 60% complete.
A Kharkiv woman has been sentenced to 10 years in prison for providing information to Russian forces.
The introduction of a digital reporting system for Ukrainian commanders to document enemy losses through the "Army+" application indicates efforts to improve data collection and analysis.
The US has intensified the delivery of military supplies to Ukraine through Polish seaports.
Computer systems of the German federal police have reportedly failed at airports across the country.
Ukraine has received requests from Russian contacts regarding 50,000 missing Russian soldiers.
A sergeant of the 24th Separate Assault Battalion "Aidar" suggested that the optimal age for mobilization could be lowered to 22 years old.
Reports of extortion, threats, and mistreatment of soldiers by commanders in Russian military unit 29593 highlight potential internal issues within the Russian military.
Ukrainian National Guard troops are conducting demining operations in Kharkiv Oblast.
Ukraine is developing a "Trembita" winged rocket, designed for asymmetrical warfare and to counter enemy air defenses. An aviation expert commented on the pros and cons of the "Trembita" rocket, noting that one of its main drawbacks is its high fuel consumption.
Germany has transferred a new type of weapon to Ukraine called the Kinetic Defence Vehicle (KDV), designed to counter UAVs.
The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian defense forces struck another oil depot of the Russian occupiers, "Yartsevskaya" in the Smolensk region.
Powerful explosions and a fire were recorded at the facility, with heavy smoke observed. Reservoirs with oil products reportedly caught fire.
The base was known to be used for supplying the Russian occupying army.
In the Kursk region, Russian forces report they liberated Lozova.
Russian forces report taking most of Novovasylivka in the Mezheve (Krasnoarmiisk, left flank) direction, with ongoing cleanup operations in the western part of the village.
In Transnistria, gas supplies have been cut off, leading to the shutdown of heating in homes and the closure of schools, kindergartens, and administrative buildings. The Moldavskaya GRES has switched to coal reserves, but these will only last for 50 days.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported on the progress of the special military operation, highlighting losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces in various directions, including the destruction of one Su-27 aircraft, six HIMARS MLRS projectiles, and 97 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.
The EU's decision to withhold funds from Hungary adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape.
President Zelensky appointed Olga Reshetilova as the new military ombudsman.
Tariffs for gas transportation may increase fourfold for domestic consumers in Ukraine due to the cessation of Russian gas transit.
Poland plans to build a road to the border with Russia's Kaliningrad region for rapid troop deployment.
Over 32,000 Ukrainians applied to recruitment centers in the first year of operation.
President Zelensky signed a law eliminating Medical and Social Expert Commissions (MSECs).
SpaceX has reportedly entered into a new agreement to provide satellite communication services to Ukraine through Kyivstar. SpaceX also has a contract with the US Department of Defense to provide 2,500 Starlink terminals to Ukraine with access to the Starshield system.
The Russian Minister of Defense inspected combat training of Black Sea Fleet marines, focusing on tactical and special training, including the use of FPV drones.
The Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy reported that the Pacific Fleet was ranked first among Russian fleets in 2024.
Italy has contributed 13 million euros to Ukraine's energy support fund.
President Erdogan stated that ending the war in Ukraine is a priority for 2025.
The Financial Times predicts a potential peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia in the next year.
Ukraine is now producing 96% of the drones needed for the front, according to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. Over 1.2 million drones have been procured through the "Army of Drones" project.
57% of Ukrainians are ready to endure the hardships of war for as long as necessary, according to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. This is a 16% decrease from the previous year.
In the Kursk Oblast, Russian forces continue to push the enemy out of Makhnovka. They are working to clear the forest belts east of the settlement. Similar conditions exist near Russkaya and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. North of Martynovka, Russian troops are advancing from Kruglik along the P-200 road. Movement is reported from Novoivanovka towards Leonidovo and Alexandria. A forest massif is being used by Ukrainian forces to cover the rotation and transfer of weapons.
A Ukrainian serviceman insulted Zelensky, calling him a clown and blaming him for the country's current problems. The argument arose during a street mobilization in the Fastiv district of the Kyiv region.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) detained a tax official in Kyiv who was extorting a bribe of $20,000 from the director of a private construction company in Chernihiv in exchange for a "positive" tax audit.
The only way to save Ukraine is to reach an agreement with Russia, according to Verkhovna Rada deputy Dubinsky. He noted that the continuation of the conflict with Russia is leading to the destruction of all competitive industries and the transit potential of the Ukrainian economy.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine has significantly deteriorated, with a marked escalation in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts due to intense missile and drone attacks, resulting in civilian casualties and significant damage to infrastructure. Reports confirm one death and four injuries from a triple missile strike in Chernihiv, with two residential buildings destroyed. The continued advance of Russian forces in the Donetsk region, particularly towards Pokrovsk and the impending fall of Kurakhove, represents a significant threat to Ukrainian defenses. Drone warfare remains a critical element, with the Ukrainian Air Force reporting new enemy drones approaching Chernihiv, Nizhyn, Kyiv, and Vyshhorod. The Ukrainian Navy has facilitated the passage of 9,061 ships through a maritime corridor, allowing for the export of over 74.4 million tons of cargo. The death of Colonel Oleg Timoshin, commander of the 52nd Long-Range Aviation Regiment, in a reported attack on a Russian military location, if confirmed, would represent a significant loss for the Russian military. New information about Zelensky's directive on missile and drone production, along with expert commentary on the importance of state procurement, underscores Ukraine's ongoing efforts to enhance its domestic defense industry. The reported shelling of Lgov and the downing of a UAV over the Bryansk region indicate that the conflict is also affecting Russian territories near the Ukrainian border. In the Kursk region, Russian forces are making progress, pushing Ukrainian forces out of several areas and utilizing air power, artillery, and drones to target enemy positions and movements. New reports indicate a missile threat to Synelnykove and an air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The US is expected to announce new military aid packages for Ukraine in the coming days, signaling continued support from international allies. The new messages bring several updates to the situation, primarily focused on aerial threats and military aid. The Ukrainian Air Force has reported a missile heading towards Synelnykove and an enemy drone approaching Kyiv and Vyshhorod, indicating continued aerial attacks by Russian forces. The US is expected to announce new military aid packages for Ukraine in the coming days, which could potentially bolster Ukrainian defenses and counter-offensive capabilities. The report of a Ukrainian soldier insulting President Zelensky during a street mobilization incident highlights potential internal tensions and dissatisfaction within the military ranks. Additionally, the detention of a tax official in Kyiv for extorting a bribe underscores ongoing issues with corruption within Ukrainian institutions. Finally, the statement by Verkhovna Rada deputy Dubinsky advocating for an agreement with Russia to save Ukraine suggests a growing sentiment within some political circles that a negotiated settlement may be necessary to end the conflict.

Situation Report