Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 3, 2025, 13:47 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intense fighting continuing in the Donetsk region. Russian forces are consolidating their control over Kurakhove and pressing towards Pokrovsk. Ukrainian military bloggers confirm that Russian forces have advanced in Kurakhove, Solone, and near Vovkove. Drone warfare remains a critical element, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of enemy drones in several oblasts, with active engagements by Ukrainian air defenses. A new announcement from Alex Parker indicates that the Russian Ministry of Defense will officially declare the liberation of Kurakhove in the next few days. This aligns with previous reports of Russian forces controlling approximately 80% of the city and capturing the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant.

Key Updates

• Impending Fall of Kurakhove: The announcement regarding the impending liberation of Kurakhove by Russian forces marks a significant development. The loss of this strategically important city would further solidify Russian control in the Donetsk region and potentially open up new avenues of advance towards Pokrovsk.
• Drone Warfare Intensification:
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports a new threat of Russian strike drones in Kyiv Oblast. This adds to the previously reported drone activity in Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, and Kirovohrad oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging drones over Kyiv Oblast.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports movement of attack drones in Sumy, Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts.
  • Russian forces are reportedly using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
  • Operators of drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army reportedly discovered and destroyed a disguised Ukrainian communications repeater, thereby ensuring the security of Russian positions from enemy drone strikes.
  • Russian forces are reportedly pressing Ukrainian forces on all fronts in the Kursk region.
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports updates on the movement of Russian drones:
    • New drones entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk, moving southwest.
    • Drones in eastern and western Poltava Oblast, moving west.
    • Drones in northeastern Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
    • Drones are reported in the center of Poltava Oblast, moving northwest, and on the west of Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. A drone is reported on the northeast of Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
    • One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest. Five drones near Konotop, moving southwest.
    • City of Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast) is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the northeast.
    • The Air Force reports the movement of enemy drones:
      • Drones in the west of Poltava region, course - west / southwest;
      • Drones in the north of Sumy region, course - south-west;
      • Drones in the center of Chernihiv region, course - south / south-west;
      • Drones in the east of Kyiv region, course - west / north-west;
      • Drones on the border of Kirovohrad and Odesa regions, course - west.
    • Enemy drone is moving in the direction of Cherkasy from the southeast.
    • 1 drone is approaching Boryspil. 2 drones are flying from Poltava region to Cherkasy. 1 drone is flying from Kirovohrad region to Vinnytsia. 3 drones are in Pryluky area, heading southwest. 3 new drones are flying through Shostka area, heading southwest.
    • A new group of drones from Sumy Oblast is moving towards Poltava Oblast.
    • Within an hour, explosions were heard in the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, in the suburbs of Kharkiv and Cherkasy.
    • Several villages in the Grayvoron district of Belgorod Oblast were left without electricity after a Ukrainian drone attack.
    • Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle in the Sumy region, near the Kursk border.
    • Video allegedly shows a Ukrainian drone strike on a command post of the 810th Marine Brigade at the Lgov sugar factory.
    • Video shows a drone strike on a US-made M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle near Sudzha.
    • Video from Sudoplatov shows Russian forces towing a captured American M113 armored personnel carrier in the Kursk region.
    • Video shows drone footage from the 80th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces engaging Russian infantry in the Kursk region.
    • Operators of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed an enemy along with equipment in the Kursk region.
    • Code 9.2 unit drops "goodies" on communists and Jucheists in the Kursk region.
    • Russian operators destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk and an armored vehicle in the Kharkiv region.
    • A Leopard tank was destroyed in the Kupyansk Direction.
    • A Russian attack drone unit successfully eliminated Ukrainian troops in a forested area in the Kharkiv region.
    • Ukrainian forces were reportedly killed by Russian drones near Kharkiv.
    • Russian forces reportedly used drones to eliminate a Ukrainian special forces group near Kupyansk.
    • Russian forces have used drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a wooded area.
    • Russian forces have used FPV drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a forest.
    • Pilots of the "ACHILLES" battalion of the 92nd brigade are reported to have destroyed enemy personnel and a truck in the Kharkiv region.
    • Ukrainian forces used a drone to attack a Russian position near a road, resulting in a fire.
    • Ukrainian forces used an FPV drone to destroy a Ukrainian T-64BV tank near Kupyansk.
    • In the Kupyansk area, fighters of the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed an enemy T-64BV tank with two FPV drones.
    • FPV of the Third Assault Brigade destroys enemy weapons, shelters, and warehouses in the Kharkiv direction.
    • Ukrainian forces repelled a powerful Russian assault in the Kupyansk direction, destroying 5 armored vehicles.
    • One Ukrainian soldier was killed, and another injured in Kupiansk due to shelling by Russian forces.
    • A Ukrainian drone hit a civilian man walking down the street in Kupyansk.
    • Explosive strikes were reported in the region.
    • Operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army detected and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
    • Russian forces report needing more Mavic drones to break through enemy defenses on all fronts, from Kursk to Kurakhove.
    • In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, operators of the 375th OPTADN used drones to destroy an enemy communication tower and a supply depot.
    • Attack FPV drone teams of the Yug Group of Forces eliminated a stronghold and a mortar position of the AFU in Kurakhove direction.
    • Operators of drones from the 110th Brigade, operating in the Kurakhove direction, spotted moving Ukrainian soldiers and dropped a munition, killing one.
    • Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces used drones to target the positions of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in the Kurakhovo direction.
    • Aerial reconnaissance from the "Mad Dogs" brigade detected a night raid by Ukrainian forces from the 32nd Brigade. A Russian FPV drone operator, "Dolgiy," reportedly destroyed four Ukrainian soldiers and wounded two during this raid in the Pokrovsk direction.
    • Operators of drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army discovered and destroyed a disguised Ukrainian communications repeater, thereby ensuring the security of Russian positions from enemy drone strikes.
    • A Ukrainian drone "Vampir" of the "Hydra" unit of the 137th Separate Marine Battalion remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria, Donetsk Oblast.
    • Fighters of the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed an enemy mortar with an FPV drone.
  • Reports indicate that Russia is not effectively countering Ukrainian maritime drones, according to Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) representative Yevhen Yerin. This suggests a potential vulnerability in Russian defenses that Ukraine could exploit.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that their forces destroyed three Ukrainian drones over the Belgorod and Voronezh regions each. This indicates ongoing Ukrainian drone activity targeting Russian territory.
• Fighting in Kursk Region:
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense claims Ukrainian forces lost up to 225 personnel in the Kursk region in the past 24 hours.
  • Russian forces report destroying a Ukrainian BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicle in the Kursk border region using a drone.
• Geopolitical Developments:
  • Kazakh President Tokayev's statement that Russia is "invincible in a military sense" is a significant endorsement of Russian military power. While he also acknowledged Western support for Ukraine, this statement could be interpreted as a signal of Kazakhstan's alignment with Russia.
  • The reported oil spill near Sevastopol, caused by damaged tankers in the Kerch Strait, adds an environmental dimension to the conflict. The spill has reached the western coast of Crimea, highlighting the potential for ecological damage resulting from military actions or accidents.
• Mariupol Oil Spill: Fuel oil from damaged Russian tankers has reached the western coast of Crimea.
• Humanitarian Situation: Reports from Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts indicate that defense is not a budgetary priority, with funds allocated to non-essential items instead. This suggests potential mismanagement of resources and neglect of internally displaced persons (IDPs).
• Artillery and Drone Strikes:
  • Reports of Russian artillery, mortar, MLRS, and drone strikes in the Kherson region, damaging residential buildings and civilian transport.
  • A civilian was killed by a mortar attack in the village of Kirillovka, Bryansk region, according to the regional governor.
• Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration Video: A video highlights the provision of equipment and supplies to 150 combat units in the Zaporizhzhia region, indicating continued military activity in the area.
• Ukrainian Intelligence Report on Russian Recruitment: Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia has recruited up to 180,000 prisoners for the war, with a significant decrease in the prison population since 2014. The report also mentions the cancellation of one-time payments to these recruits, suggesting financial strain within Russia.
• Internal Conflict in Ukrainian Military: Reports of a physical altercation between a local resident and a military serviceman in the Sumy region, resulting in the resident's death, highlight potential internal tensions and disciplinary issues within the Ukrainian military.
• Gas Transit and Economic Impact: Reports indicate that the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine will lead to significant financial losses for Kyiv, estimated at $1 billion annually. To compensate, Ukraine plans to increase domestic gas transportation tariffs fourfold, impacting Ukrainian consumers.
• Flydubai Suspends Flights: Flydubai has suspended flights to Sochi and Mineralnye Vody until January 8 and 9, respectively. The reason for this suspension is not specified but could be related to the security situation or other operational considerations.
• Settlement Reached Between Russian MoD and University: Reports indicate that the Russian Ministry of Defense and Moscow State Technical University plan to settle a lawsuit, with details provided by the university's press service.
• Reconstruction Efforts in Zaporizhzhia: The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration reports that reconstruction of a residential building damaged by enemy action is 60% complete, with a planned completion date in July 2025.
• Legal Proceedings Against Collaborators: A Kharkiv woman, Kateryna Kushnaryova, has been sentenced to 10 years in prison for providing information to Russian forces, leading to adjusted strikes on Kharkiv. Her former partner, a Wagner PMC member, was previously sentenced in absentia to life imprisonment for treason.
• New Digital Reporting System for Ukrainian Military: The Ukrainian government has introduced a digital reporting system for commanders to document enemy losses through the "Army+" application, synchronized with the DELTA combat system. The pilot project will initially be implemented in select units, with plans to expand to all Defense Forces units.
• German Government Analysis on Potential War Conclusion: According to Bild, Germany believes that Vladimir Putin may end the war in Ukraine this year, citing signals from the Kremlin. This analysis suggests that economic pressures, including rising prices, a falling ruble, and crises in various sectors due to the overburdened military-industrial complex, could lead to negative consequences and influence Putin's decision. The Kremlin is reportedly preparing regions for the 2026 elections, presenting the war's conclusion as a "victory."
• Fundraising for Russian Military: A fundraising campaign is underway to procure 100 motorcycles, 50 day/night drones, and other equipment for the Russian military. 47 motorcycles have already been paid for.
• Ukrainian Requests for MIA Information: Ukraine has received requests from Russian contacts regarding 50,000 missing Russian soldiers. The head of the Secretariat of the Coordination Headquarters noted that this figure doesn't include the total losses.
• Potential Mobilization Changes in Ukraine: A sergeant of the 24th Separate Assault Battalion "Aidar" suggested that the optimal age for mobilization could be lowered to 22 years old.
• Allegations of Corruption and Abuse in Russian Military:
  • Reports of extortion, threats, and mistreatment of soldiers by commanders in Russian military unit 29593.
  • Relatives of soldiers report having to send supplies to the front lines due to shortages within the unit.
  • Soldiers are allegedly called "slaves" by their commanders.
  • Complaints have been filed with the military prosecutor's office, the Investigative Committee, the presidential administration, and the Ministry of Defense.
• Demining Operations in Kharkiv Oblast: Ukrainian National Guard troops are conducting demining operations in Kharkiv Oblast.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intense fighting continuing in the Donetsk region. Russian forces are consolidating their control over Kurakhove and pressing towards Pokrovsk. Ukrainian military bloggers confirm that Russian forces have advanced in Kurakhove, Solone, and near Vovkove. Drone warfare remains a critical element, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of enemy drones in several oblasts, with active engagements by Ukrainian air defenses. The new reports of Russia potentially transferring military equipment from Syria to Libya, as well as internal Russian discussions about removing certain industrial sites from online maps to protect them from attacks, further complicate the strategic picture. The announcement regarding the impending liberation of Kurakhove by Russian forces marks a significant development. The loss of this strategically important city would further solidify Russian control in the Donetsk region and potentially open up new avenues of advance towards Pokrovsk. The continued drone attacks highlight the persistent threat to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The strategic implications of the conflict continue to evolve, with potential impacts on regional and global stability. Reports of potential negotiations and shifts in Russian strategy, as suggested by the German government's analysis, add another layer of complexity to the situation. The new reports of potential mobilization changes and requests for information on missing Russian soldiers further highlight the human cost of the ongoing conflict. The prisoner exchanges and reports of significant casualties on both sides underscore the human impact of the war.