Updated Situation in Ukraine: January 3, 2025, 12:47 UTC

Strategic Overview

Russian forces maintain their offensive posture, with significant gains in the Donetsk region. They control approximately 80% of Kurakhove and have captured the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant. Their strategic objective appears to be cutting off the highway to Pokrovsk and encircling the city. Ukrainian forces are conducting a fighting withdrawal from Kurakhove, reportedly repositioning to a new defense line near the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple oblasts from both sides. Ukrainian forces report their drones can now strike targets up to 2000 km away. New reports indicate drone threats in multiple Ukrainian oblasts, including Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, and Kirovohrad. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging drones over Sumy and Lebedyn. A missile alert has been issued for the entirety of Ukraine following the reported takeoff of a Russian MiG-31K, capable of carrying Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, but the alert has since been called off.

Key Updates

• Drone Warfare Intensification: Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced plans to produce 3,000 missiles and 30,000 long-range drones in 2025, with 739 billion UAH allocated for weaponry and military equipment. This indicates a significant escalation in Ukraine's domestic drone and missile production capabilities. Ukrainian forces also report that their drones can strike targets up to 2,000 km away.
• MiG-31K Alert: The reported takeoff of a Russian MiG-31K triggered a nationwide missile alert in Ukraine, but the threat has now been lifted. This aircraft is known to carry Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, posing a significant threat to targets across the country.
• Fighting in Kursk Region: Reports indicate ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces reportedly using HIMARS and engaging in artillery duels with Russian forces. A Ukrainian drone attack damaged a BMP-1 in the area. Russian forces reportedly captured a Ukrainian T-72 tank in the Kursk region, potentially bolstering their armored capabilities. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims Ukrainian forces lost up to 225 personnel in the Kursk region in the past 24 hours.
• Attacks on Belgorod and Voronezh Regions: One person was injured in an attack on Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, while drone attacks damaged two enterprises in the Voronezh region.
• Propaganda and Disinformation: A video circulating online claims Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has healing powers, likely an attempt to discredit him. Another video features a Wagner PMC soldier discussing battles near Bakhmut, potentially serving as a recruitment tool.
• Economic Warfare: China has reportedly banned the export of dual-use goods to 28 US defense companies, including Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, potentially impacting US defense production.
• Mariupol Oil Spill: An oil spill from damaged tankers in the Kerch Strait has reached Sevastopol, according to the city's governor.
• Humanitarian Situation: Reports from Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts indicate that defense is not a budgetary priority, with funds allocated to non-essential items instead. This suggests potential mismanagement of resources and neglect of internally displaced persons (IDPs).
• Artillery and Drone Strikes: Reports of Russian artillery, mortar, MLRS, and drone strikes in the Kherson region, damaging residential buildings and civilian transport.
• Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration Video: A video highlights the provision of equipment and supplies to 150 combat units in the Zaporizhzhia region, indicating continued military activity in the area.
• Ukrainian Intelligence Report on Russian Recruitment: Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia has recruited up to 180,000 prisoners for the war, with a significant decrease in the prison population since 2014. The report also mentions the cancellation of one-time payments to these recruits, suggesting financial strain within Russia.
• Internal Conflict in Ukrainian Military: Reports of a physical altercation between a local resident and a military serviceman in the Sumy region, resulting in the resident's death, highlight potential internal tensions and disciplinary issues within the Ukrainian military.
• Gas Transit and Economic Impact: Reports indicate that the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine will lead to significant financial losses for Kyiv, estimated at $1 billion annually. To compensate, Ukraine plans to increase domestic gas transportation tariffs fourfold, impacting Ukrainian consumers.
• New Drone Threats in Chernihiv Oblast: Ukrainian Air Force reports a new threat of Russian strike drones in Chernihiv Oblast.
• Flydubai Suspends Flights: Flydubai has suspended flights to Sochi and Mineralnye Vody until January 8 and 9, respectively. The reason for this suspension is not specified but could be related to the security situation or other operational considerations.
• Settlement Reached Between Russian MoD and University: Reports indicate that the Russian Ministry of Defense and Moscow State Technical University plan to settle a lawsuit, with details provided by the university's press service.
• Reconstruction Efforts in Zaporizhzhia: The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration reports that reconstruction of a residential building damaged by enemy action is 60% complete, with a planned completion date in July 2025.
• Legal Proceedings Against Collaborators: A Kharkiv woman, Kateryna Kushnaryova, has been sentenced to 10 years in prison for providing information to Russian forces, leading to adjusted strikes on Kharkiv. Her former partner, a Wagner PMC member, was previously sentenced in absentia to life imprisonment for treason.
• New Digital Reporting System for Ukrainian Military: The Ukrainian government has introduced a digital reporting system for commanders to document enemy losses through the "Army+" application, synchronized with the DELTA combat system. The pilot project will initially be implemented in select units, with plans to expand to all Defense Forces units.
• German Government Analysis on Potential War Conclusion: According to Bild, Germany believes that Vladimir Putin may end the war in Ukraine this year, citing signals from the Kremlin. This analysis suggests that economic pressures, including rising prices, a falling ruble, and crises in various sectors due to the overburdened military-industrial complex, could lead to negative consequences and influence Putin's decision. The Kremlin is reportedly preparing regions for the 2026 elections, presenting the war's conclusion as a "victory."
• Fundraising for Russian Military: A fundraising campaign is underway to procure 100 motorcycles, 50 day/night drones, and other equipment for the Russian military. 47 motorcycles have already been paid for.
• Drone Strike on Ukrainian IFV: Russian forces reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicle in the Kursk border region using a drone.
• Casualties in Bryansk region: A civilian was killed by a mortar attack in the village of Kirillovka, Bryansk region, according to the regional governor.
• Ukrainian Requests for MIA Information: Ukraine has received requests from Russian contacts regarding 50,000 missing Russian soldiers. The head of the Secretariat of the Coordination Headquarters noted that this figure doesn't include the total losses.
• Drone Strikes in Crimea: Fuel oil from damaged Russian tankers has reached the western coast of Crimea.
• Additional Drone Strikes in Russia: Air defenses have reportedly destroyed three Ukrainian drones each over the Belgorod and Voronezh regions.
• Potential Mobilization Changes in Ukraine: A sergeant of the 24th Separate Assault Battalion "Aidar" suggested that the optimal age for mobilization could be lowered to 22 years old.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intense fighting continuing in the Donetsk region. Russian forces are consolidating their control over Kurakhove and pressing towards Pokrovsk. Drone warfare remains a critical element, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.

Ukraine's announcement of plans to significantly increase domestic production of drones and missiles signals a strategic shift towards long-term self-sufficiency in key weaponry. This move could potentially alter the balance of power in the conflict, particularly if Ukraine can successfully deploy these weapons in large numbers.

The ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, coupled with reports of Ukrainian drone attacks and artillery strikes in Belgorod and Voronezh, indicates an escalation of hostilities along the Russia-Ukraine border. These actions suggest a Ukrainian attempt to disrupt Russian logistics and potentially divert resources from other fronts.

The reported internal conflict within the Ukrainian military, resulting in the death of a civilian, raises concerns about discipline and morale. Such incidents can be exploited for propaganda purposes and undermine public trust in the military.

The economic warfare between China and the US, with China banning exports of dual-use goods to major US defense companies, could have significant implications for the global arms market and potentially impact the supply of weapons to Ukraine.

The humanitarian situation remains dire, with reports of mismanagement of resources in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. The oil spill near Sevastopol adds an environmental dimension to the conflict's impact.

The information landscape is filled with propaganda and disinformation from both sides, making it crucial to verify information before drawing conclusions. The new reports of Russia potentially transferring military equipment from Syria to Libya, as well as internal Russian discussions about removing certain industrial sites from online maps to protect them from attacks, further complicate the strategic picture.

The coming days and weeks will be critical in determining the trajectory of the conflict. The potential for further escalation remains high, particularly with the intensification of fighting along the border regions and the continued threat of drone attacks. Ukraine's success in ramping up domestic arms production will be a key factor in its ability to sustain its defense efforts in the long term. The internal challenges within the Ukrainian military also require immediate attention to maintain morale and public trust. Reports of potential negotiations and shifts in Russian strategy, as suggested by the German government's analysis, add another layer of complexity to the situation. The new reports of potential mobilization changes and requests for information on missing Russian soldiers further highlight the human cost of the ongoing conflict.