Sitrep 2025-01-03 10:50:57

Updated Situation in Ukraine: January 3, 2025, 10:47 UTC

Strategic Overview

Russian forces continue their offensive operations across multiple axes, with the most intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk region. They have achieved significant progress in Kurakhove, controlling approximately 80% of the city and capturing the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant. Their strategic goal appears to be cutting off the highway to Pokrovsk and encircling the city. Ukrainian forces are conducting a fighting withdrawal from Kurakhove, reportedly repositioning to a new defense line near the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Russian forces are also making gains near Novovasylivka, 10 km southwest of Pokrovsk, and are advancing west and northwest of Uspenovka. In the Vremivka direction, they have captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka, and liberated Uspenovka and Novyi Komar. Street fighting continues in Toretsk, with Russian forces capturing two objects on the outskirts of the "Central" mine spoil heap.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple oblasts. Both sides are extensively using drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attack missions. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can now strike targets up to 2000 km away. There are new reports of drone threats in multiple Ukrainian oblasts, including Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, and Kirovohrad.

Donetsk Region

Kurakhove: Intense fighting continues, with Russian forces capturing three factories and the industrial zone, advancing towards Petropavlivka. Reports indicate Russian forces have entered the eastern outskirts of Petropavlivka and secured most of Kurakhove, with only the outskirts requiring clearance. Video evidence suggests that Russian forces have captured the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant. Russian forces are reportedly advancing up to 3km west of the Kurakhovskoe reservoir towards Shevchenko and up to 3 km towards the town from the south, taking control of several streets. Ukrainian forces have reportedly lost at least three battalions in recent weeks.
Pokrovsk: Heavy fighting is reported in Novovasylivka, 10 km southwest of Pokrovsk. Russian forces are attempting to bypass the city and cut off Ukrainian supply lines. They are also leveling the front near Zelene, south of the city. A captured Russian soldier's account alleges that Ukrainian command is not providing adequate cover for its troops. Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike operation, targeting a Russian command post and destroying a Starlink station.
Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk): Russian forces are advancing north of the Central Market and attacking towards the spoil heaps of the No. 10 and Toretsk mines. They have also reportedly taken new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar, advancing up to 1.5 km and securing the railway station. Fighting is ongoing in Chasiv Yar, with Russian forces controlling over half the city and having now taken control of the railway station. The loss of the railway station is a significant blow to Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian command post near the Toretsk mine.
Vremivka Direction: Russian forces liberated Novyi Trud, Konstantinopolskoe (Ostrovskoe), Zelenovka, Novyi Komar, Novopustynka, Neskuchne, Novoolenivka, and Uspenovka. They also liberated around 10 sq km along the Huliaipole - Velyka Novosilka road and dislodged Ukrainian forces from Rozdolne. Russian forces liberated Makarivka on December 16th and gained control over the road between Huliaipole and Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka, destroying Russian equipment and capturing Russian soldiers.
Other Advances: Russian forces report advances near Terny, Vozdvyzhenka, Novoukrainka, Uspenivka, Dalne, Sontsivka, Novoelizavetivka, Vovkove, and Shevchenko. They have improved positions in Novovasylivka and Novoelizavetovka and advanced in Vozdvyzhenka. Russian forces have captured Peschanoe and entered Shevchenko. They are also advancing past the Solen River near Dachenskoye and expanding the control zone north of Dachenskoye. Russian forces are liberating Volkovo.

Zaporizhzhia Front

Russian actions in the western part of Belohiria, Polohy Raion, have become known.
Video evidence of Ukrainian forces dropping a flag on Russian positions near Robotyne.
Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
Russian forces report needing more Mavic drones to break through enemy defenses on all fronts, from Kursk to Kurakhove.
In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, operators of the 375th OPTADN used drones to destroy an enemy communication tower and a supply depot.

Kharkiv Region

Bohodukhiv and Zolochiv Districts: Heavy shelling is reported, with Russian forces utilizing aviation and drones. Six explosions were reported in Bohodukhiv and 11 in Zolochiv. In Kivsharivka, Kupiansk district, a 51-year-old woman was killed by artillery shelling. A multi-story residential building was also damaged.
Volchansk and Kupyansk: Russian forces launched a new offensive near Volchansk, crossing the Volchya River and establishing a bridgehead. Fighting continues near Kupyansk, with reports of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian positions. Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy three Russian field howitzers near Volchansk. Ukrainian forces report heavy fighting in Lysovka, with Russian forces advancing to the center of the settlement. Ukrainian forces report destroying a reserve of the so-called "Caucasian Legion" that was advancing on armored vehicles to reinforce Ukrainian units in Lysovka. A Leopard tank was destroyed in the Kupyansk Direction. Ukrainian forces repelled a powerful Russian assault in the Kupyansk direction, destroying 5 armored vehicles. One Ukrainian soldier was killed, and another injured in Kupiansk due to shelling by Russian forces.
Evacuations: 28 people, including one child, were evacuated from the Kupiansk and Borivskyi directions.

Kursk Region

Sudzhansky District: Russian forces are making progress in the forests and near Leonidovo and Kurilovka. Ukrainian reserves, including foreign mercenaries, are reportedly being transferred to the region.
Advances: Russian forces report reaching Kurylivka, south of Sudzha, and making advances in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka. They also liberated Pogrebki, Russkoye Porechnoye, Kamyshovka, Lozova, and Novovasylivka. In the Kursk region, Russian forces have reportedly secured a foothold in Cherkaska Konopelka and made progress in the wooded areas of the Sudzhansky district. There are reports that Russian forces are advancing towards Sudzha from the east, following their liberation of Cherkaska Konopelka and progress in Makhnovka. Video and photographic evidence confirm the liberation of Lozova by Russian forces. Russian forces are reportedly pressing Ukrainian forces on all fronts in the Kursk region. Russian airborne troops have reportedly taken full control of Cherkaska Konopelka. Active combat near Sudzha: Russian forces are attacking towards Viktorivka. Russian forces are making advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka. Video shows drone footage from the 80th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces engaging Russian infantry in the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot. Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast. In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 10 Russian army assaults.

Krasnolimansky Direction

Ivanovka: A buildup of Russian forces is noted on the newly formed bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River. They are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny.
Zahryzove: Russian forces are storming Zahryzove, pushing through defenses near Lozova and Zelenyi Hai, and moving towards Borova.
Terny: Russian forces advanced in the central part of Terny and are controlling most of Terny.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Use: Both sides are extensively using drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attack missions.
Ukrainian Air Defenses: Reported shooting down 60 out of 93 Russian drones launched overnight, with 26 "locationally lost" due to active countermeasures. They also report shooting down numerous other drones across various regions. Ukrainian Air Force reports that overnight, Russian forces attacked with 43 drones, 21 of which were shot down and 22 missed their targets. Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down 7 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force reports updates on the movement of Russian drones, with drones on the border of Vinnitsa and Kyiv oblasts moving southwest, drones in northern Kyiv moving west, drones north of Poltava moving northwest, drones in northern Sumy constantly changing course, and drones south of Sumy moving east. Ukrainian Air Force reports increased drone activity in Poltava and Myrhorod, as well as in Kyivska and Chernihivska regions. Ukrainian air defense forces successfully detected and neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv. Ukrainian forces report a 19-fold increase in the supply of drones to their units in 2024, compared to the previous year.
Russian Drone Attacks: New reports of drone threats in multiple Ukrainian oblasts, including Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, and Kirovohrad. The Ukrainian Air Force reported a threat of enemy drone attacks from the east in Sumy Oblast and from the south in Mykolaiv Oblast. Russian forces used approximately 100 Geran drones to deplete Ukrainian air defenses overnight.

Drone attacks on Belgorod:

In the Shebekinsky district, a civilian was injured as a result of shelling by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. A man with a shrapnel wound to the chest was taken by ambulance to the regional clinical hospital. All necessary assistance is provided.
In Shebekino, a concrete fence and two GAZelles were damaged at one of the enterprises.
In the village of Maslova Pristan, a hangar of a production enterprise was damaged as a result of a drone attack.
Buildings of two enterprises were damaged during the fall of suppressed drones in the Voronezh region.

FPV Drones:

In the Kursk border area, reconnaissance of the Anvar special forces is operating, which has a lot of different FPV drones. These are fiber-optic drones, radio-controlled drones, and drones with AI, said the commander of the reconnaissance detachment with the call sign Beret to RT military commander Alexander Yaremchuk. At 01:00 and 01:26 - this is the current situation in the border area and this is how the enemy behaves. At 02:01 - the scouts send a "bird" with fiber optics to the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is useless to influence it with electronic warfare. At 02:47, 02:51, 02:56 - successful operation of drones.
A new FPV-drone "Hortenzia" with support of management for optical fiber started to be used.

Ukrainian POV on Europe wanting to return Ukrainian non-working refugees:

Europe wants to return home Ukrainians who do not work and do not pay taxes, - President Zelenskyy. "I tell them, look, let's put it this way: a little more air defense and I'll say - come back everyone. But I will return everyone, not just those who do not work for you. And they say: no, let those who work for us work, and let this part return," - the President.

Ukrainian drone attack preparation:

Ukraine is preparing to hit Moscow with its own Trembita missiles, - The Telegraph. Cost - about $10,000 per unit; Length - 2 m, weight - 90 kg; Capable of carrying 18 kg of explosives at a distance of up to 144 km.

Russian drone and artillery attack:

The combined operation of the UAV and D-30 howitzer crews of the Russian Armed Forces to destroy a mortar crew and a Armed Forces of Ukraine ammunition depot near the village of Orekhov in the Zaporozhye direction.

Key Updates from the New Messages

Drone Attack on Ukrainian Soil: A Ukrainian drone was shot down while attempting to attack a house in a village in the Belgorod region. The regional governor, Gladkov, was inspecting the house at the time, following residents' requests to assess property damage. This incident highlights the ongoing drone warfare and the targeting of civilian areas.
Analysis of Video from User "Alex Parker Returns": The video, featuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is interpreted as a strategic communication effort aimed at boosting morale, demonstrating care for injured citizens, and potentially garnering international support. The footage of a man in a wheelchair at a public event underscores the human cost of the conflict. This analysis suggests the use of personal stories and public appearances as tools for shaping narratives and influencing public opinion.
Analysis of Video from User "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS": The video, showing high-ranking officials visiting what appears to be a military-related or conflict zone, suggests a strategic interest in the area. The use of military transport and the presence of military personnel indicate ongoing logistical and operational support. The visit could be aimed at assessing the situation, providing support, conducting diplomacy, or overseeing logistical operations.
Analysis of Video from User "ТАСС": The video, showing drone footage of engagements with military vehicles, demonstrates the increasing importance of drone warfare. It highlights the use of drones for precision strikes and reconnaissance, underscoring the vulnerability of armored vehicles to such attacks. The release of the footage by TASS also serves a propaganda purpose.
Zelenskyy's Healing Claims: A video shared by Kotsnews features Ukrainian President Zelenskyy claiming to have healed someone through a photograph, which is portrayed as him taking on a divine status. This is likely being used to mock Zelenskyy and undermine his credibility.
Testimony from Soldier "Klesh": A video shared by Dva Mayora features an interview with a soldier from the Wagner PMC, providing insights into his experiences in battles near Bakhmut. The video serves as a propaganda tool, humanizing the soldier and potentially encouraging recruitment.
Attack Aftermath in Vlasivka: Images shared by Operativnyi ZSU show the aftermath of a Ukrainian strike on a Russian ammunition depot in Vlasivka, Luhansk Oblast, indicating successful targeting of enemy logistics.
Territorial Changes and Military Advances: A report from Voenkor Kotenok details Russian military advances towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, highlighting the capture of Novovasylivka and ongoing battles in several other areas. This suggests a significant shift in the frontline dynamics.
Economic and Energy Situation in Ukraine: An image shared by RBC-Ukrayina highlights the increased electricity consumption in Ukraine due to colder temperatures and cloud cover, impacting solar power efficiency. This underscores the challenges faced by Ukraine's energy sector amidst the conflict.
Social Media Posts on Military Recruitment: Images shared by Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny show social media posts from a Ukrainian musician advocating violence against military recruitment officers, reflecting deep-seated public discontent and resistance to conscription.
Territorial Control Map Analysis: Analysis of maps shared by Colonelcassad reveals strategic points of interest, including key settlements, road networks, and waterways. These maps are crucial for understanding the geographic context of the conflict and planning military operations.
Analysis of Video from User "Kadyrov_95": The video, showing religious practices and observances within the Chechen Muslim community, emphasizes community cohesion and loyalty, which could be leveraged for military support. The presence of Ramzan Kadyrov suggests an effort to boost morale and project an image of leadership.
Analysis of Video from User "РБК-Україна": The video, featuring a Ukrainian soldier from the 47th Brigade, highlights the need for vehicle repairs due to intensive use and damage from conflict and poor road conditions. This underscores logistical vulnerabilities and the need for external support to maintain operational effectiveness.
Analysis of Image from User "Alex Parker Returns": The image of a hospitalized individual, possibly a civilian or a soldier, suggests the impact of the conflict on individuals and the healthcare system. It could also be used for propaganda purposes to highlight the human cost of the war.
Disappointment with F-16s: A news headline shared by Colonelcassad claims that F-16 fighter jets have been a disappointment for Ukraine, raising questions about their effectiveness and strategic impact on the war.
Drone Threat to Kyiv: Reports from the Ukrainian Air Force indicate a threat of drone attacks in the Kyiv Oblast, highlighting the ongoing threat to the capital and surrounding areas.
Drone Activity Near Sumy: A drone, likely an attack drone, is reported to be moving towards Sumy from the northwest, indicating potential reconnaissance or attack operations in the region.
Capture of T-72 Tank: A video from Dnevnik Desantnika claims that Russian forces captured a Ukrainian T-72 tank in the Kursk region, showcasing the capture as a morale booster.
Casualty Figures: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Ukrainian forces lost up to 225 military personnel in a single day in the Kursk region.
Artillery and Drone Strikes in Kherson: Reports of Russian artillery, mortar, MLRS, and drone strikes in the Kherson region, resulting in damage to residential buildings and civilian transport.
Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration Video: A video highlighting the provision of equipment and supplies to 150 combat units in the Zaporizhzhia region, showcasing the scale of logistical support and the importance of the Zaporizhzhia front.
Magnetic Storm Announcement: A message from Novosti Moskvy warns of an upcoming magnetic storm, which could affect the health of individuals sensitive to such events.
Ukrainian Intelligence Report on Russian Recruitment: The Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service reports that Russia has recruited up to 180,000 prisoners for the war, with a significant decrease in the prison population since 2014. The report also mentions the cancellation of one-time payments to these recruits, suggesting financial strain within Russia.
Update on Power Consumption: "Ukrenergo" reports a 9.7% increase in electricity consumption in Ukraine due to lower temperatures and reduced solar power efficiency, highlighting the strain on the energy system.
Announcement of Death: The death of Honored Artist of the RSFSR, Genrietta Romodina, at the age of 93 was announced.
Arrest Extension: The suspect in the murder of Irina Farion, Vyacheslav Zinchenko, had his detention extended for another 60 days without bail.
Prosthetics Program Information: The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War shared information about Ukraine's free prosthetics program, emphasizing that individuals do not need to wait for disability status to receive a quality prosthesis.

Updated Situation

Russian forces continue their offensive, making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal, attempting to consolidate their defenses. Drone warfare remains a critical component, with Ukrainian forces reporting that their drones can now strike targets up to 2000 km away. The new information about drone threats in multiple Ukrainian oblasts indicates ongoing aerial attacks. The capture of a Ukrainian T-72 tank by Russian forces and the reported Ukrainian casualties highlight the intensity of the ground fighting. The strategic communication efforts by both sides, using videos and social media posts, aim to influence public perception and boost morale. The reported increase in electricity consumption in Ukraine and the ongoing repairs to energy infrastructure underscore the challenges faced by the country's energy sector. The Ukrainian intelligence report on Russian recruitment of prisoners and the cancellation of payments to these recruits suggest potential manpower and financial issues for Russia. The announcement of a magnetic storm adds a minor environmental factor that could affect individuals' health. The death of a prominent actress and the arrest extension in a high-profile murder case are notable events within Russia and Ukraine, respectively. The information about Ukraine's prosthetics program highlights the country's efforts to care for those injured in the conflict. The reported drone attack on a house in the Belgorod region, where the regional governor was present, indicates the ongoing threat to border areas and the potential for escalation. The analysis of videos and images shared by various sources provides insights into troop movements, logistical operations, and the human impact of the conflict. The disappointment expressed over the performance of F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine, as reported by a Ukrainian news outlet, raises questions about the effectiveness of Western military aid. The threat of drone attacks on Kyiv and the reported drone activity near Sumy underscore the persistent danger to key Ukrainian cities.

The new messages add significant updates to the military situation in Ukraine. The reported drone attack on a house in the Belgorod region while the regional governor was present indicates a serious escalation and highlights the vulnerability of border areas. The analysis of videos shared by various sources provides valuable insights into troop movements, morale-boosting efforts, and the impact of the conflict on both military personnel and civilians. The reported disappointment with the performance of F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine raises questions about the effectiveness of Western military aid and its impact on the battlefield. The ongoing drone threats to Kyiv and other regions underscore the persistent danger to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The Ukrainian intelligence report on Russian recruitment of prisoners and the financial strain faced by Russia provide further context to the manpower and economic challenges faced by both sides. The announcement of a magnetic storm, while not directly related to military operations, adds an environmental factor that could affect individuals' health and potentially impact electronic systems. The death of a prominent actress and the arrest extension in a high-profile murder case are notable events within Russia and Ukraine, respectively, but their direct impact on the military situation is limited. The information about Ukraine's prosthetics program highlights the country's efforts to care for those injured in the conflict, showcasing a commitment to rehabilitation and recovery.

The updated situation reflects the continued intensity of the conflict, with ongoing ground and aerial engagements, significant logistical and strategic challenges, and a complex interplay of military, political, and social factors. The use of drones, the targeting of critical infrastructure, and the ongoing information warfare efforts remain defining features of the conflict.

Situation Report