Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 2, 2025, 18:47 UTC

Key Developments

Russian Military Actions and Advances

• Donetsk Region:
  • Intense fighting continues near Kurakhove, with Russian forces attempting to encircle the city. They have made significant advances, capturing several settlements and reaching the outskirts of Krasne (Sontsovka). The strategic goal appears to be cutting off the highway to Pokrovsk and encircling the city.
  • Russian forces are making gains near Novovasylivka, 10 km southwest of Pokrovsk, with active assault operations. They are also advancing west and northwest of Uspenovka.
  • Russian forces have entered Slavyanka and Petropavlovka, and captured some Ukrainian positions north of Shevchenko.
  • Positional fighting is reported in the Lysychansk-Belohorivka area.
  • Russian forces launched a powerful attack with "Iskanders" on Dnipropetrovsk.
  • Russian forces report they have taken new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar, advancing up to 1.5 km.
  • Russian forces report successful advances by the 7th Brigade in Belogorovka.
  • Positional fighting continues in the Krasnoarmiisk-Novoaleksandrivka direction.
  • Ukrainian forces, specifically the "RAROG" unit of the 24th Mechanized Brigade, report destroying four T-62 tanks and three BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles near Chasiv Yar.
• Kursk Region:
  • Russian forces are making progress in the forests of the Sudzhansky district and near Leonidovo and Kurilovka.
  • Ka-52M helicopters reportedly disrupted a rotation of Ukrainian units in the border area.
  • The "Sever" group of forces is engaged in fierce battles along the entire front line.
  • Russian forces advanced to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
  • The Russian Army is conducting a powerful offensive, storming Kruglenkoye and advancing towards Sudzha, Martynovka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
  • Russian forces made advances in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
  • South of Kruhlenky, Russian forces advanced towards Viktorivka. They are also advancing towards Leonidove.
• Krasnolimansky Direction:
  • Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny.
  • A buildup of Russian forces is noted on the newly formed bridgehead in Ivanovka.
  • Russian forces report storming Ukrainian positions near Terny.
  • Russian forces are storming Zahryzove, pushing through defenses near Lozova and Zelenyi Hai, and moving towards Borova.
  • On the Liman axis, 26 attacks were reported.
  • An attack by a Russian infantry unit was reported in Terny.
  • Russian forces advanced in the central part of Terny.
• Belgorod Region:
  • Two civilians were injured in a drone attack on a vehicle.
  • Partial power outages were reported in Shebekino due to shelling.
• Donetsk People's Republic (DPR):
  • Four civilians were injured in Panteleimonovka (Yasynuvata district) due to shelling.
  • A radio operator of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations was injured in Horlivka.
• Chasiv Yar Direction:
  • Russian troops continue clearing operations at the Kombinat plant.
  • Fighting continues in the northern part of the city and near Novyi microdistrict.
  • The front line has not changed significantly.
• Zaporizhzhia Direction:
  • A large number of enemy vehicles and personnel were reported in Stepnohirsk.
  • Ukrainian forces are reportedly amassing reserves for an offensive.
  • Ukrainian forces are preparing for an attack.
  • Russian forces continue to launch airstrikes on concentrations of Ukrainian forces.

Ukrainian Actions

• Drone Attacks on Russia:
  • Multiple drones were destroyed over Voronezh, Bryansk, Rostov, Kaluga, and Kursk Oblasts.
  • Reports of a drone being rammed by a Russian drone over Pokrovsk.
  • A Ukrainian drone attack on Bryansk Oblast was reportedly repelled by Russian air defense forces.
• Drone Attacks on Ukraine:
  • Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down numerous drones.
  • Enemy tactical aviation is active in the east and north-east, with a threat of air strikes in the frontline regions.
  • New reports indicate a group of Russian Shahed drones are on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, moving west. Another group of drones is in the north of Donetsk oblast, heading north. A new group of drones is in Dnipro, heading north. A group of drones is in the north of Dnipropetrovsk oblast, heading toward Poltava oblast. A group of drones is in Kharkiv oblast, heading toward Kharkiv.
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports drone movements in Chernihiv Oblast to the west and towards Kyiv Oblast.
  • New groups of drones were entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk.
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports increased drone activity in Poltava and Myrhorod, as well as in Kyivska and Chernihivska regions.
  • New reports of drone movements in Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts.
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports updates on the movement of Russian drones.
  • Reports of drone movements in various regions, including Chernihiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, and Kirovohrad.
  • Reports of drone movements in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Chernihiv Oblasts.
  • Reports indicate drones approaching from Tendra towards Odesa/Pivdenne.
  • Air raid alerts have been issued in Mykolaiv Oblast due to the threat of "Shahed" drones.
  • Enemy drones are moving from the Black Sea towards Chornomorske/Pivdenne (Odesa Oblast).
  • Drones are reported in Mykolaiv Oblast, approaching from the south.
  • Two drones are reported near Kobleve, and two more are moving from the Tendra Spit towards Ochakiv.
  • Enemy drones are reportedly heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast from the south, with a call for residents of Ochakiv to take shelter.
  • Three drones are moving from Kharkiv Oblast to Poltava Oblast.
  • Four drones are approaching Chuhuiv/Kharkiv. Anti-aircraft operations may be active.
  • Two drones are moving from the east of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Kharkiv Oblast.
  • One drone is in the Zlatopil area and has turned towards Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast.
  • New Shahed drones from the Black Sea are heading towards the south of Odesa Oblast.
  • Shahed drones are present in the south of Sumy Oblast, the east of Poltava Oblast, and the west of Kharkiv Oblast, moving northwards.
  • A new group of Shahed drones is heading from the Black Sea towards the south of the Odesa region.
  • New Shahed drones are heading towards Odesa Oblast, specifically towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district.
  • Three Shahed drones are approaching Bilyaivka either through or near the town. Three new Shahed drones are moving from the Black Sea towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, with one potentially heading towards Ovidiopol.
  • The Air Force reported:
    • A new group of Shahed drones from the Black Sea heading towards the south of the Odesa region.
    • Shahed drones in the south of the Odesa region heading north.
    • Shahed drones in the south of the Kharkiv region heading northwest.
    • Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from the north of the Kharkiv region heading towards the Poltava region.
    • Drones in the east of the Poltava region heading towards Myrhorod.
    • Shahed drones in the east of the Sumy region heading towards the Chernihiv region.
  • Three Shahed drones are heading towards Kurortne through Bilyaivka. One Shahed drone is circling at the intersection of the Sumy and Poltava regions. Two Shahed drones are moving from the Kharkiv region to the Poltava region. Three Shahed drones are in the Lozova area of the Kharkiv region, heading north.
  • 3 drones via Rozdilna are heading towards Odesa Oblast.
  • 2 drones via Bilyaivka are heading towards Odesa.
  • 1 new drone from the Black Sea is heading towards Ovidiopol.
  • 1 drone north of Nizhyn, moving towards Chernihiv.
  • 1 drone is heading via Konotop towards Sumy.
  • 1 drone near Pryluky, moving northwest.
  • 1 drone turned towards Odesa, expect loud activity.
  • One drone from the Odesa region is flying towards the Vinnytsia region. One drone is approaching Rozdilna. One drone is flying towards Odesa. The northern direction is being clarified.
  • One drone is flying from the Mykolaiv region towards the Odesa region, to the north of the region.
  • Several Shahed drones detected moving from the Black Sea towards Chornomorske and Pivdenne.
  • A group of Shahed drones is moving north in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Several Shahed drones are in the center, north, south, and east of Kharkiv Oblast, moving northwest.
  • A new group of drones from Sumy Oblast is moving towards Poltava Oblast.
  • A high-speed target is reported on the border of Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts.
  • The missile is flying west of Voznesensk towards Pervomaisk.
• Attacks on Russian Forces:
  • Russian forces report an attack on a bus in the Korabelny district of Kherson.
  • Ukrainian forces report that a Russian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka was destroyed by drone operators.
  • Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike operation in the Pokrovsk direction, targeting a Russian command post and destroying a Starlink station.
  • Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian command post near the Toretsk mine.
  • Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy three Russian field howitzers near Volchansk.
  • Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian communication tower and a supply depot in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • Ukrainian forces used drones to target Russian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
  • Ukrainian forces used FPV drones to destroy a Ukrainian T-64BV tank near Kupyansk.
  • Ukrainian forces used FPV drones to destroy a German Leopard 1 tank.
  • Ukrainian forces used FPV drones to shoot down an enemy UAV.
  • Ukrainian forces report shooting down 15 out of 16 drones, with one drone "lost."
  • Ukrainian forces report shooting down two more Russian drones over the Belgorod region.
  • Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
  • Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy three Russian field howitzers near Volchansk.
  • Ukrainian forces report that a Russian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka was destroyed by drone operators.
  • Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans.
  • Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
  • Video shows drone footage from the 80th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces engaging Russian infantry in the Kursk region.
  • Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle in the Sumy region, near the Kursk border.
  • Video allegedly shows a Ukrainian drone strike on a command post of the 810th Marine Brigade at the Lgov sugar factory.
  • Video shows a drone strike on a US-made M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle near Sudzha.
  • Video from Sudoplatov shows Russian forces towing a captured American M113 armored personnel carrier in the Kursk region.
  • Video shows drone footage from the 80th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces engaging Russian infantry in the Kursk region.
  • Operators of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed an enemy along with equipment in the Kursk region.
  • Code 9.2 unit drops "goodies" on communists and Jucheists in the Kursk region.
  • Russian operators destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk and an armored vehicle in the Kharkiv region.
  • A Leopard tank was destroyed in the Kupyansk Direction.
  • A Russian attack drone unit successfully eliminated Ukrainian troops in a forested area in the Kharkiv region.
  • Ukrainian forces were reportedly killed by Russian drones near Kharkiv.
  • Russian forces reportedly used drones to eliminate a Ukrainian special forces group near Kupyansk.
  • Russian forces have used drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a wooded area.
  • Russian forces have used FPV drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a forest.
  • Pilots of the "ACHILLES" battalion of the 92nd brigade are reported to have destroyed enemy personnel and a truck in the Kharkiv region.
  • Ukrainian forces used a drone to attack a Russian position near a road, resulting in a fire.
  • Ukrainian forces used an FPV drone to destroy a Ukrainian T-64BV tank near Kupyansk.
  • In the Kupyansk area, fighters of the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed an enemy T-64BV tank with two FPV drones.
  • FPV of the Third Assault Brigade destroys enemy weapons, shelters, and warehouses in the Kharkiv direction.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled a powerful Russian assault in the Kupyansk direction, destroying 5 armored vehicles.
  • Attack FPV drone teams of the Yug Group of Forces eliminated a stronghold and a mortar position of the AFU in Kurakhove direction.
  • Operators of drones from the 110th Brigade, operating in the Kurakhove direction, spotted moving Ukrainian soldiers and dropped a munition, killing one.
  • Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces used drones to target the positions of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in the Kurakhovo direction.
  • Aerial reconnaissance from the "Mad Dogs" brigade detected a night raid by Ukrainian forces from the 32nd Brigade. A Russian FPV drone operator, "Dolgiy," reportedly destroyed four Ukrainian soldiers and wounded two during this raid in the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Operators of drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army discovered and destroyed a disguised Ukrainian communications repeater, thereby ensuring the security of Russian positions from enemy drone strikes.
  • Russian forces are using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
  • A Ukrainian drone "Vampir" of the "Hydra" unit of the 137th Separate Marine Battalion remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria, Donetsk Oblast.
  • Fighters of the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed an enemy mortar with an FPV drone.
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports updates on the movement of Russian drones:
    • New drones entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk, moving southwest.
    • Drones in eastern and western Poltava Oblast, moving west.
    • Drones in northeastern Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
    • Drones are reported in the center of Poltava Oblast, moving northwest, and on the west of Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. A drone is reported on the northeast of Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
  • One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest. Five drones near Konotop, moving southwest.
  • City of Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast) is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the northeast.
  • The Air Force reports the movement of enemy drones:
    • Drones in the west of Poltava region, course - west / southwest;
    • Drones in the north of Sumy region, course - south-west;
    • Drones in the center of Chernihiv region, course - south / south-west;
    • Drones in the east of Kyiv region, course - west / north-west;
    • Drones on the border of Kirovohrad and Odesa regions, course - west.
  • Enemy drone is moving in the direction of Cherkasy from the southeast.
  • 1 drone is approaching Boryspil. 2 drones are flying from Poltava region to Cherkasy. 1 drone is flying from Kirovohrad region to Vinnytsia. 3 drones are in Pryluky area, heading southwest. 3 new drones are flying through Shostka area, heading southwest.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of drones in Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to the south-west and west, in Chernihiv Oblast to the west, and new groups in the east of Kharkiv Oblast to the west.
  • Drone movement has been detected in the Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions, specifically near Nizhyn.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot. The operation involved a group of attack drones, including "Baba Yaga" heavy bombers and FPV drones. The T-90 tank was destroyed by a direct hit from an FPV drone, while the ammunition depot was destroyed by a "Baba Yaga" drone.
  • Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
  • Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans in the Kursk region.
  • Several Shahed drones detected moving from the Black Sea towards Chornomorske and Pivdenne.
  • A group of Shahed drones is moving north in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Several Shahed drones are in the center, north, south, and east of Kharkiv Oblast, moving northwest.
  • Up to 10 drones and several FPV drones were involved in the recent attack.
  • Ukrainian air defense systems engaged multiple Russian drones near Nechaiane, Ochakiv, and Velyka Korenykha.
  • Russian drones were launched from Crimea.
  • Up to 10 drones were reported over Ochakiv, with some shot down. One drone was reported near Parutino.
  • New enemy drone attacks reported in Ochakiv from the Black Sea.
  • FPV drones of the "Center" group continue to hunt for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Ukrainian forces report that one Russian warship is present in the Black Sea, but it is not equipped with "Kalibr" missiles. No Russian warships were detected in the Azov Sea.
  • Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down a Ukrainian missile over Kursk Oblast.
  • Ukrainian air defense systems are actively engaging Russian drones, with reports of "first drones shot down" in the Mykolaiv region.
  • Three drones are confirmed to be moving through Kutsurub in a northerly direction.
  • The Sever Group of Forces’ FPV drone team destroyed a camouflaged position of an AFU mortar in Sumy region.
  • Operators of the FPV group "Sever" hit three Ukrainian Armed Forces dugouts with three kamikaze drones in the Kharkiv direction.
  • 3 drones via Bilyaivka are heading towards Kurortne. 1 drone is circling around the border of Sumy and Poltava oblasts. 2 drones are moving from Kharkiv to Poltava. 3 drones are in Lozova area, heading north.
  • Video shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself.
  • Russian forces report they destroyed 3 Leopard tanks in the border areas of the Kursk region. The tanks were reportedly targeted by FPV drones equipped with fiber optic guidance.
  • An operational video from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the Vostok group showcases their drones destroying enemy observation and communication equipment near Velyka Novosilka.
  • A video from the "Два майора" Telegram channel shows an FPV drone attacking a Ukrainian mortar position in the Sumy direction.
  • A video from the "Оперативний ЗСУ" Telegram channel shows the "Skynex" air defense system in operation, claimed to be archival footage from the area of responsibility of the "West" Air Command. The system is shown engaging an aerial target at night.
  • A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel shows a 120-mm mortar "2B11" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces being destroyed by a drone strike in the area of Petrovskoe/Grekovka, Lugansk region.
• Air Activity:
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) in the direction of Kharkiv and Donetsk.

Strategic and Political Developments

• Polish farmers are planning a large protest in Warsaw against the import of Ukrainian agricultural products.
• Ukraine and Poland are opening joint defense industry enterprises.
• All industrial enterprises in Transnistria have reportedly ceased operations due to a lack of energy resources.
• Slovak Prime Minister Fico stated that his party is ready to support reducing aid to Ukrainians in Slovakia in response to Ukraine stopping gas transit.
• Ukraine has become the 125th state party to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC).
• The Main Inspectorate of the Ministry of Defense will conduct a comprehensive analysis of the Ground Forces Command, focusing on organizational structure, management processes, and compliance with legislation.
• Former US Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker suggested that Kyiv might be pressured not to attempt to retake Russian-occupied territories by military means.
• The British Embassy in Ukraine announced that 200 Ukrainian pilots have undergone ground, language, and basic flight training in the UK. This training is a prerequisite for further training on F-16 fighter jets.
• The Ukrainian Air Force reports the threat of Russian tactical aviation using aerial weapons in the east.

Updated Situation and Key Changes

Russian forces continue their offensive, making significant gains, particularly in the Donetsk region. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal, attempting to consolidate their defenses. Drone warfare remains a critical component, with ongoing drone activity reported in multiple regions.

New Information and its Implications:

• Hand-to-Hand Combat Video: A video emerged showing a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself. This highlights the intensity and brutality of close-quarters combat and could be used for propaganda purposes.
• Alleged Imminent Fall of Pokrovsk: Pro-Russian sources are spreading information about the imminent fall of Pokrovsk, claiming that Russian troops are within 2 km of the city. This information should be treated with caution, as it comes from a biased source.
• Corruption Allegations in Pokrovsk: Reports of local authorities in Pokrovsk allegedly misusing funds allocated for media support, city improvement, and heating supply further complicate the situation.
• Drone Attack on Bryansk Oblast: A Ukrainian drone attack on Bryansk Oblast was reportedly repelled by Russian air defense forces. This indicates continued Ukrainian attempts to strike targets within Russia.
• Terrorist Attack in Las Vegas: New information suggests a connection between the perpetrator of the Tesla Cybertruck attack near a Trump hotel in Las Vegas and the individual who carried out an attack in New Orleans. Both reportedly served at the same military base, Fort Liberty.
• Skynex Air Defense System Video: A video claiming to show the "Skynex" air defense system in operation was released. This system is designed to counter drones and other low-flying threats, and its deployment could indicate an attempt to strengthen Ukrainian air defenses.
• Mortar Position Destroyed: A video shows a Ukrainian mortar position being destroyed by a drone strike in the Petrovskoe/Grekovka area of the Luhansk region. This highlights the continued use of drones to target enemy artillery positions.
• Potential Escalation in Sumy and Kharkiv: The increased drone activity and reports of guided aerial bombs being used in the direction of Kharkiv and Donetsk suggest a potential escalation of hostilities in these regions. The use of guided aerial bombs indicates a shift towards more precise targeting and potentially greater destructive power.
• Iran Nuclear Negotiations: The announcement of upcoming negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program, scheduled for January 13 in Geneva, is a significant development. The participation of representatives from Tehran and European countries, just a week before Trump's inauguration, adds a layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. The outcome of these negotiations could have far-reaching implications for regional stability and international relations.
• Military Aid to Ukraine: The receipt of a new unmanned aerial system "Hazard" and a HMMWV vehicle by the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate, donated by the American charitable organization Help Heroes of Ukraine, highlights the continued international support for Ukraine's military efforts. The drone's advanced capabilities, including its stealth design, could provide a tactical advantage in reconnaissance and potentially offensive operations.
• Training of Ukrainian Pilots: The confirmation that 200 Ukrainian pilots have undergone basic training in the UK is a significant development. This indicates that Ukraine is preparing to operate F-16 fighter jets, which could significantly enhance its air power capabilities. The delay in announcing this information suggests potential concerns about operational security and the timing of F-16 deployment.
• Threat of Aerial Weapons: The Ukrainian Air Force's report of a threat of aerial weapons being used by Russian tactical aviation in the east indicates a potential escalation in the conflict. This could involve the use of guided bombs or other air-launched munitions, posing a significant threat to Ukrainian forces and infrastructure.

Conclusion

The situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces continuing their offensive and Ukrainian forces actively defending and launching counterattacks. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The new information suggests a potential escalation in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, with increased drone activity and the use of guided aerial bombs. The upcoming Iran nuclear negotiations add another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. The continued international support for Ukraine, as evidenced by the recent military aid and training of pilots, is crucial for its ability to withstand the Russian offensive. The situation is likely to remain fluid and dynamic in the coming days and weeks, with the potential for further significant developments. The training of Ukrainian pilots in the UK and the threat of aerial weapons being used by Russian forces are particularly noteworthy developments that could impact the future course of the conflict.