Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 1, 2025, 09:17 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and volatile. Russian forces continue their offensive operations, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they have achieved significant progress. They control approximately 80% of Kurakhove, having captured the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant, and are advancing towards Pokrovsk and in the Vremivka direction. Intense fighting is reported in the center of Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk), and there are reports of some Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk being destroyed. Ukrainian forces are conducting a fighting withdrawal, reportedly retreating from Kurakhove to avoid encirclement and repositioning to a new defense line near the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Limited Ukrainian counteroffensives are reported in the Kursk region and near Kreminna.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple oblasts. A massive drone attack targeted Ukraine overnight, with 111 drones launched by Russia. Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down 63 drones, while 46 were "locationally lost" due to active countermeasures. Two drones reportedly flew into Russia and Belarus. A severe drone attack on Kyiv resulted in at least six casualties and damage to infrastructure, including a fire on the roof of a building of the National Bank of Ukraine. One woman was found dead in a residential building in the Pechersk district of Kyiv as a result of the attack. Reports indicate that Russian forces used fog and smoke grenades to cover their attacks in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk.

Ukraine officially halted the transit of Russian gas through its territory as of 07:00 on January 1, 2025, citing national security interests. "Gazprom" confirmed the cessation, attributing it to the expiration of the five-year contract and Ukraine's refusal to extend it. This is expected to significantly impact European energy markets, with gas prices already rising. The EU stated its "readiness" for this development, while Berlin called on private enterprises to economize.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Russian forces struck a Ukrainian energy facility that supplied the military-industrial complex. They also claimed to have destroyed three Ukrainian naval drones and shot down 7 HIMARS rockets and 66 drones over the past 24 hours. Ukrainian losses in the area of responsibility of the Russian "Western" group of forces are estimated at up to 330 military personnel. The "Southern" group of forces reportedly occupied more advantageous positions, with Ukrainian losses exceeding 250 military personnel.

Key Developments

Drone Warfare

• Kyiv:
  • Extensive drone attacks with multiple drones approaching from various directions.
  • Air defense systems actively engaging hostile drones, shooting down around ten near Kyiv.
  • Explosions heard in Kyiv.
  • Falling drone debris reported in multiple districts, causing fires and damage to buildings, including the National Bank of Ukraine.
  • At least six casualties reported, with one woman found dead in a residential building.
• Sevastopol: Drone attack repelled, multiple drones and at least one naval drone shot down over the Black Sea.
• Mykolaiv Region: Ukrainian air defense engaged multiple Russian drones, with explosions reported in Mykolaiv.
• Donetsk Oblast: Extensive use of drones by both sides, with drone attacks on command posts, logistics routes, and military equipment.
• Sumy Oblast: Drone attacks threatening the region, with drones moving towards Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Poltava Oblasts.
• Poltava Oblast: Multiple drones reported, moving southwest and constantly changing course.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Three drones reported, moving northwest. Air raid alerts issued.
• Other Regions: Widespread drone activity reported across multiple regions (Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia Oblasts), with air raid alerts issued and reports of drone movements and engagements.
• Russia: Over 10 drones detected and destroyed in the suburbs of Voronezh. 13 Ukrainian drones were destroyed overnight by air defense systems over Russian territory. 5 were shot down over Bryansk Oblast, 3 over Kursk Oblast, 2 each over Belgorod and Tula Oblasts, and 1 over Astrakhan Oblast.

Ground Operations

• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Kurakhove: Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city. Intense clashes continue.
  • Vremivka Direction: Russian forces captured Storozheve and are advancing towards Velyka Novosilka.
  • Toretsk: Russian forces advanced near the Toretska mine and behind New York. Street fighting continues. Russian forces reportedly destroyed some Ukrainian positions using fog and smoke grenades.
  • Pokrovsk: Russian forces have effectively cut off the Pokrovsk-Dnipro highway. Heavy fighting reported.
  • Chasiv Yar: Fighting continues in the urban areas. Russian forces reportedly destroyed some Ukrainian positions using fog and smoke grenades.
• Kharkiv Oblast:
  • Enemy attacked twice near Vovchansk and Lyptsi.
  • Ukrainian forces used a drone to attack a Russian position near a road, resulting in a fire.
• Kursk Region:
  • Russian forces are reportedly pressing Ukrainian forces on all fronts.
  • Active combat near Sudzha: Russian forces are attacking towards Viktorivka.
• Kupiansk Direction: The enemy attempted to advance 16 times near several settlements. Six clashes are ongoing.
• Siversk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault using drones.

Strategic and Political Developments

• Gas Transit: Ukraine halted the transit of Russian gas through its territory. The EU stated its "readiness" for this development.
• Russian MoD Claims: Russian forces struck a Ukrainian energy facility supplying the military-industrial complex.
• Ukrainian Military Ombudsman: President Zelensky appointed Olga Reshetilova as the new military ombudsman.
• SpaceX and Starlink: SpaceX has reportedly entered into a new agreement to provide satellite communication services to Ukraine through Kyivstar.
• Financial Times Prediction: Predicts a potential peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia in the next year.

Casualties and Losses

• Russian Losses: Over the past day, Russian losses amounted to 1,610 personnel, five tanks, 27 armored fighting vehicles, 34 artillery systems, 12 operational-tactical UAVs, 75 vehicles, and one unit of special equipment.
• Ukrainian Losses: Reportedly eliminated over 160 Russian troops in the Donetsk direction in December. At least three battalions lost in the Kurakhove direction in recent weeks.
• North Korean Soldiers: Reports indicate significant losses among North Korean soldiers in the Russian army, with 1,000 casualties in the past week alone.

Updated Situation

Russian forces continue their offensive, making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal, attempting to consolidate their defenses. Drone warfare remains a critical component, with a massive drone attack on Ukraine overnight and ongoing drone activity reported in multiple regions. The cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine marks a significant development with potential ramifications for European energy markets. The situation remains highly dynamic and volatile, with the potential for further escalation. The new information confirms the intensity of the drone attacks and their impact on civilian infrastructure, as well as the strategic implications of the gas transit halt. The reported casualties and the destruction of Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk highlight the intensity of the fighting on the ground.