Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 1, 2025, 07:47 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine is highly dynamic and marked by intense fighting, particularly in the Donetsk region. Russian forces have made significant advances, notably capturing the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant and gaining control over approximately 80% of Kurakhove. They are also pushing towards Pokrovsk and in the Vremivka direction. Ukrainian forces are conducting a fighting withdrawal, with reports indicating a retreat from Kurakhove to avoid encirclement. Limited Ukrainian counteroffensives are reported in the Kursk region and near Kreminna. Drone warfare is a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple oblasts, including a severe drone attack on Kyiv, resulting in casualties and damage to infrastructure.

Ukraine has officially halted the transit of Russian gas through its territory as of 07:00 on January 1, 2025, citing national security interests. This action, communicated to international partners, is expected to have significant implications for European energy markets, with gas prices already rising.

The naval situation indicates a strategic focus on the Mediterranean. The overall situation is highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation.

Key Developments

Drone Warfare

• Kyiv City/Region:
  • Extensive drone attacks with multiple drones approaching from the northeast and southwest.
  • Air defense systems actively engaging hostile drones, shooting down around ten near Kyiv.
  • Explosions heard in Kyiv.
  • Falling drone debris reported in Pechersk and Sviatoshynskyi districts.
  • Fires reported in non-residential buildings and on the roof of a residential building.
  • Damage to apartment buildings, cars, garages, and a tram line.
  • Six casualties reported in Kyiv, four in Pechersk district, two hospitalized.
  • Partial destruction of a six-story residential building from the 6th to the 4th floors, with fires on the 4th and 5th floors.
• Sevastopol: Drone attack repelled, with multiple drones and at least one naval drone shot down over the Black Sea.
• Mykolaiv Region:
  • Ukrainian air defense engaged multiple Russian drones.
  • Explosions reported in Mykolaiv.
  • New Shahed drones reported heading towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district from the Black Sea.
  • Drones observed near Ochakiv, Luparevo, and Stara Bohdanivka.
• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Extensive use of drones by both sides.
  • Ukrainian drone attack on Russian command post near Toretsk mine.
  • Mass drone attack on Russian positions in Pokrovsk direction.
  • FPV drones targeting Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions.
  • Ukrainian drone "Vampir" remotely mining Russian logistics routes near Zoria.
  • Drone strikes on assault columns near Kurakhove.
• Sumy Oblast:
  • Drone attacks threatening the region.
  • Drones moving south towards Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Drones moving into Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts.
  • Sumy city under threat from drones approaching from the north.
  • Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian armored vehicles near the Kursk border.
• Poltava Oblast:
  • Multiple drones reported, moving southwest and constantly changing course.
  • Drones moving into Kharkiv and Cherkasy Oblasts.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Three drones reported, moving northwest. Air raid alerts issued.
• Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia Oblasts: Under threat of drone attacks. Air raid alerts issued. Drones reported in multiple regions, with movements and engagements.
• Other Regions:
  • Widespread drone activity reported across multiple regions, including new drone threats in Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnitsa, Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Vasylkiv, Brovary, Sumy, Kharkiv, Lubny, Kremenchuk, Kryvyi Rih, Chuhuiv, Pavlohrad, Zlatopil, and Merefa.
  • Over 10 drones detected and destroyed in the suburbs of Voronezh.
  • Russian ZALA Z-16 and Z-20 drones used for reconnaissance and targeting across the frontline.
  • Drone reportedly shot down over Bryansk Oblast.
  • Ukrainian forces targeting and destroying Russian military equipment and personnel near Novoelizavetivka.
  • Ukrainian forces repelling assaults in Bakhmut and Kupyansk directions.
  • Russian forces using Geran drones to deplete Ukrainian air defenses.
  • Destruction of enemy UAV control points by both sides.
  • Ukrainian drone strike on a command post of the 810th Marine Brigade at the Lgov sugar factory.
  • Drone strike on a US-made M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle near Sudzha.
  • Russian forces towing a captured American M113 armored personnel carrier in the Kursk region.
  • Ukrainian forces engaging Russian infantry in the Kursk region.
  • Destruction of Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones and armored vehicles in Kharkiv region.
  • Ukrainian forces repelling a Russian assault in the Kupyansk direction, destroying 5 armored vehicles.
  • Ukrainian forces report a 19-fold increase in drone supply in 2024.
  • Latvia plans to transfer 1000 drones to Ukraine by the end of 2024.
  • Extensive and increasingly sophisticated use of drones by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
  • Russia is confirmed to be integrating AI into Shahed drones.
  • Ukrainian forces innovating with shotgun-mounted drones to down enemy drones.
  • FPV drones are being used extensively by both sides.
  • Reports indicate significant losses among North Korean soldiers in the Russian army.
  • Ukrainian forces are transferring reinforcements to Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk).
  • Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle in the Sumy region, near the Kursk border.
  • Several villages in the Grayvoron district of Belgorod Oblast were left without electricity after a Ukrainian drone attack.
  • Within an hour, explosions were heard in the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, in the suburbs of Kharkiv and Cherkasy.
  • Video allegedly shows a Ukrainian drone strike on a command post of the 810th Marine Brigade at the Lgov sugar factory.
  • Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
  • Ukrainian Ambassador to the EU, Vsevolod Chentsov, reported that Russia is integrating AI into Shahed drones to enhance their target recognition capabilities, even when offline.
  • Ukrainian forces report a threat of enemy drones approaching Zhytomyr and Ozerne from the northeast.
  • Increased drone activity in Kharkiv and Poltava regions, with drones moving west/southwest.
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports updates on the movement of Russian drones.
  • Reports of drone movements in various regions, including Chernihiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, and Kirovohrad.
  • Reports of drone movements in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Chernihiv Oblasts.
  • Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down 7 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • Ukrainian forces report a Russian drone strike on the central market in Nikopol, causing damage to the market and injuring 8 civilians, 7 of them being hospitalized.
  • Ukrainian forces report shooting down two more Russian drones over the Belgorod region.
  • Video footage shows the destruction of a German Leopard 1 tank by Russian FPV drones "VT-40".
  • Footage shows the destruction of a Ukrainian tank by an FPV drone.
  • Footage shows an FPV drone shooting down another enemy UAV.
  • Video shows a systematic process of preparing aerial bombs, specifically focusing on the installation of guidance fins or wings.
  • Ukrainian forces report shooting down 15 out of 16 drones, with one drone "lost."

Ground Operations

Donetsk Oblast

• Kurakhove:
  • Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city.
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly withdrawing to avoid encirclement.
  • Intense fighting near the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant.
  • Russian forces reportedly captured the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant.
  • Russian forces advancing up to 3km west of the Kurakhovskoe reservoir towards Shevchenko.
  • Russian assault units advanced up to 1.5 km west of the city.
  • Russian forces report liberating the settlement of Gigant to the south of Kurakhove.
  • Clashes continue in the central part of the city for the remaining high-rise buildings.
  • Russian forces are also advancing in the western part of the high-rise buildings and have placed a flag on the roof of the sanatorium.
  • Russian forces continue clearing high-rise buildings and the private sector, pushing Ukrainian forces towards the territory of the thermal power plant.
  • South of Kurakhove, Russian forces have advanced 1 km west of Dalne and expelled Ukrainian forces from nearby forest belts.
  • South and north of Krasnohorivka, Russian forces advanced 1.7 km and are attacking Petropavlivka.
  • Russian forces have expanded their control in areas surrounding Kurakhove, including advances near Shevchenko and to the south towards Dalne.
  • Russian assault groups have reportedly secured new positions in the Kurakhivka axis, with heavy fighting reported near several settlements.
  • High-intensity battles are reported in the areas of northern Shevchenko, Peschanoye, Novovasilevka, Novooleenovka, Ukrainka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, and southern Shevchenko.
  • Russian forces destroyed a bridge over the Volchya River between Konstantinopol and Andreevka, further degrading Ukrainian logistics to the west of Kurakhove.
  • Russian forces improved their tactical position, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses, including 145 soldiers in the past 24 hours.
  • Russian forces liberated an additional 5 square kilometers, advancing south of Ukrainian positions in the industrial zone.
  • Due to high combat losses in the Kurakhove area, internal rotations of personnel of the 116th separate mechanized brigade have been significantly increased. The decline in the morale and psychological state of the soldiers became an obvious problem for the brigade, and cases of desertion and refusal to obey orders have increased. It is possible that units of the 46th separate airmobile brigade will be withdrawn from Kurakhove deep into the defense, due to the extreme decline in combat capability. The personnel of the brigade holding the front line are told to hold out for another day or two, which is a classic trick of the Ukrainian Armed Forces command when they want to buy time at the cost of the lives of the unit.
  • In the Uspenovka area, resistance is still focused on maintaining the stability of the defense in the areas of the 71st separate jaeger brigade and the 37th separate marine brigade along the Uspenovka - Yantarnoye line. Intelligence revealed preparations for assault operations by the 71st separate jaeger brigade to regain control of lost positions west of Uspenovka. Daytime maneuvers of assault groups were stopped: one of the groups, coming under fire, was forced to retreat, suffering losses. This does not exclude the possibility of replacing the group and evacuating the wounded, emphasizing the enemy's intention to continue assault operations to improve their tactical position and regain previously lost positions.
  • In Dachne, active preparation of fortifications for a reserve defense line is underway. The enemy has focused its efforts on deploying reconnaissance and fire positions and creating tactically advantageous positions within the residential area. Supplies are carried out covertly, mainly at night, through the only route Ulakly - Dachne.
  • North of Kurakhove assault teams approached the outskirts of Petropavlivka and engaged in fighting for this settlement.
  • Offensive actions continue to seize the defense area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, covering the approaches to Andriivka from the northeast.
  • From the area of Stari Terny, assault units of the Russian Armed Forces are fighting in Shevchenko, advancing towards Dachne and the industrial zone of Kurakhove.
  • Dachne is being reinforced by the enemy, additional positions are being equipped in the residential area.
  • In Kurakhove, assault groups occupied the first buildings in the defense area of the Kurakhove thermal power plant and are fighting on its territory.
  • In the area of Yantarne - Uspenivka, the enemy is trying to hold positions on the right bank with forces of 71 and 37 brigades. An attempt was made to counterattack to regain positions west of Uspenivka, but to no avail. The enemy suffered losses and retreated.
  • West of Kurakhove, in the Zelenivka area, units of the Russian Armed Forces advanced slightly closer to Rozlyv and Konstantinopil.
  • One of the brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was withdrawn for replenishment due to losses of up to 70% of personnel.
  • Russian forces started the assault on the thermal power plant in Kurakhove.
  • Russian forces are advancing near Stari Terny.
  • Russian forces are advancing towards Dachne and the industrial area of Kurakhove.
  • Russian forces destroyed a camouflaged enemy antenna in the central part of Shevchenko.
  • Video shows a drone observation of Russian forces ambushing and engaging enemy personnel in a wooded area.
  • Video shows a drone recording of a military engagement near a road.
  • In DPR, on the Kurakhovo direction, Russian fighters of the Siberian special forces unit "Vega" identified an enemy Leopard tank and defeated it with several FPV drones.
  • Heavy fighting continues in the Kurakhove area. Russian forces report fierce battles near Peschanoe and Volchye, with attempts to advance towards Chunishino and Myrolyubivka. Ukrainian forces report heavy fighting in Lysovka, with Russian forces advancing to the center of the settlement. Ukrainian forces also report destroying a reserve of the so-called "Caucasian Legion" that was advancing on armored vehicles to reinforce Ukrainian units in Lysovka. Ukrainian forces are attempting to prevent Russian advances near Peschanoe, Volchye, and Solyonoe at any cost, using all available means of destruction and reserves. The situation is similar south of Kurakhove, near Novovasylivka and Novoelizavetivka, where a breakthrough by Russian forces threatens to reach the Dnipropetrovsk region and encircle Kurakhove from the west.
• Vremivka Direction:
  • Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka.
  • Clashes ongoing near multiple settlements.
  • Russian forces reportedly already at the Huliaipole-Velyka Novoselka road west of Vremivka and Neskuchne.
  • Russian forces liberated around 10 sq km along the Huliaipole - Velyka Novosilka road and dislodged Ukrainian forces from Rozdolne.
  • Russian forces report that they are maneuvering to encircle Ukrainian forces near Velyka Novosilka.
  • Russian forces captured Storozheve and advanced towards Velyka Novosilka, forming a new "pocket" and capturing Novyi Komar and Novopustynka.
  • Fighting continues in the southern part of Novyi Komar.
  • Russian forces are attacking from both sides, attempting to reach the Velyka Novosilka-Huliaipole road.
  • Russian forces reportedly encircled Ukrainian forces in Makarivka, south of Velyka Novosilka. The information about the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Makarivka is officially denied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
  • The liberation of Uspenovka has been completed.
  • Ukrainian forces withdrawn from "Uspenivka pocket" with fewer losses than anticipated.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the liberation of Storozheve.
  • Rogov reported the beginning of battles for the liberation of Neskuchne in DPR.
  • Russian forces are reportedly attacking Velyka Novosilka from both sides.
  • Russian forces are processing the approaches to Neskuchne.
  • Occupation authorities in Huliaipole are concerned about the situation, with rumors of a potential Russian offensive.
  • The road to Huliaipole is under the physical and fire control of the 60th Brigade of the 5th Army of the Russian Armed Forces.
  • All paved roads to Velyka Novosilka are blocked.
  • In Vremivka, Russian forces have reportedly cut off the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison in Velyka Novosilka.
  • West of Velyka Novosilka, the 5 A guards stormed the heights along the route to the turn of the route to Vremivka (about 1 km to it). Thus, stable control of the route to Huliaipole was established. The battles for Neskuchne, which is in the lowlands and is in a semicircle, continue. At a minimum, the 5 A of the "Vostok" Group of Forces solved the task of returning all the territories that were under Russian control before the Ukrainian counterattack in this area before the New Year.
  • Video shows artillery operations by the 1461st Amur Regiment against Ukrainian positions in Novoselka.
• Toretsk:
  • Street fighting continues.
  • Russian forces captured two objects on the outskirts of the "Central" mine spoil heap.
  • Russian forces have reportedly broken into the northern part of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk).
• Pokrovsk:
  • Russian forces are advancing south towards Ukrainka, reportedly entering Pisky.
  • Russian forces are storming Novooleenovka and advancing towards Slavyanka.
  • High-intensity battles are ongoing near Myrolubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zelene, Novovasylivka, Chumatske, Novyy Trud, Novotroyitske, Novoyelyzavetivka, Novoolenivka, Novopustynka, and Vozdvyzhenka.
  • Russian forces advanced approximately 2 kilometers near Pushkino, reaching its outskirts and liberating Veselyi Gai.
  • Russian forces have effectively out on the Pokrovsk-Dnipro highway. Russian DRGs are operating in Pokrovsk itself.
  • Ukrainian forces are continuing to transfer reinforcements to Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) from the 155th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which was trained and equipped by France. These forces were intended for the anticipated winter offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, due to the rapidly evolving situation south of Krasnoarmiisk, the Ukrainian command has been forced to deploy these reserves, which had been accumulated for offensive operations.
  • Pokrovsk is completely without power.
  • Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction.

Kharkiv Oblast

• Ukrainian forces repelled a powerful Russian assault in the Kupyansk direction, destroying 5 armored vehicles.
• One Ukrainian soldier was killed, and another injured in Kupiansk due to shelling by Russian forces.
• A Ukrainian drone hit a civilian man walking down the street in Kupyansk.

Other Regions

• Transnistria: Authorities have shut down the central heating system in populated areas due to the cessation of gas supplies from Russia.

Geopolitical Developments

• Ukraine officially stopped the transit of Russian gas through its territory as of 07:00 on January 1, 2025, in the interests of national security. This action has been communicated to international partners.
• The cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine is expected to significantly impact European energy markets.
• Gas prices on European exchanges have reached record highs since November 2023.
• The US has accused China of conducting cyberattacks on the Treasury Department's systems.
• Several villages in the Grayvoron district of Belgorod Oblast were left without electricity after a Ukrainian drone attack.

Humanitarian Situation

• Six people have been injured in Kyiv as a result of the drone attacks, with two hospitalized.
• Damage to residential buildings in Kyiv has been reported, with fires and partial destruction.
• The cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine is expected to have humanitarian consequences, particularly for countries dependent on this supply.

Military Aid and Support

• Latvia plans to transfer 1000 drones to Ukraine by the end of 2024 and allocate 20 million euros for drone procurement in 2025.
• Ukrainian forces report a 19-fold increase in the supply of drones to their units in 2024 compared to the previous year.

Intelligence Assessments

• Russia is confirmed to be integrating AI into Shahed drones to enhance their target recognition capabilities, even when offline.
• Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
• Ukrainian forces are innovating with shotgun-mounted drones to down enemy drones.
• Russian forces are highlighting the reconnaissance and targeting capabilities of their ZALA Z-16 and Z-20 drones.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely tense and fluid. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly in Kurakhove, where they now control approximately 80% of the city and have captured the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant. Ukrainian forces are reportedly withdrawing from Kurakhove to avoid encirclement. The Russian offensive is also pushing towards Pokrovsk and in the Vremivka direction, with reports of heavy fighting and territorial gains. The capture of Storozheve and the formation of a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka are notable developments in the Vremivka direction.

Drone warfare continues to be a central element of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The severe drone attack on Kyiv highlights the vulnerability of the capital and the ongoing threat to civilian areas. The confirmation of Russia integrating AI into Shahed drones and reports of Ukrainian drones striking targets up to 2000 km away underscore the evolving technological landscape of the conflict.

Ukraine's decision to halt the transit of Russian gas adds a significant geopolitical dimension to the situation, with potential ramifications for European energy security and the broader economic context of the war. The rising gas prices in Europe reflect the immediate impact of this decision.

The humanitarian situation is worsening, with civilian casualties in Kyiv and damage to residential areas. The cessation of gas transit may further exacerbate the humanitarian challenges, particularly during the winter months.

International support for Ukraine remains crucial, with Latvia's pledge to supply drones being a notable example. However, the evolving dynamics of the conflict, including the intensification of Russian offensives and the increasing use of advanced drone technology, may necessitate adjustments to military aid and strategic planning.

The coming days and weeks will be critical in determining the trajectory of the conflict, particularly in the Donetsk region. The potential for further escalation remains high, and the situation is subject to rapid changes. The interplay between military actions on the ground, geopolitical developments, and the evolving technological landscape will shape the future course of the war.