Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 1, 2025, 05:47 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine is marked by a continued Russian offensive, particularly in the Donetsk region, where significant gains have been made, including the capture of the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant and advances in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction. Ukrainian forces are attempting a fighting withdrawal while reporting some advances in the Kursk region and near Kreminna. Drone warfare is a dominant factor, with widespread activity across multiple regions, especially with an urgent alert for Kyiv and its suburbs due to an ongoing drone attack, with air defenses actively engaging hostile drones. There are reports of falling drone debris in the Pechersk district, resulting in a fire in a non-residential building and damage to an apartment building. One person has reportedly sought medical attention. Russian forces are actively using drones, particularly their ZALA models, to target Ukrainian manpower and have reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian DRG near Vozdvyzhenka. Air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and across much of Ukraine suggest the potential for further escalation. Russian authorities have reduced the permitted period of stay for foreigners without visas, potentially affecting the presence of foreign fighters or advisors. The humanitarian situation is worsening, and international support remains crucial, though Die Welt's report may impact dynamics. Geopolitical shifts are emerging, complicated by international incidents and internal political issues. The naval situation indicates a strategic focus on the Mediterranean. The situation is highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation. The ISW's assessment of Russian territorial gains and losses in 2024, along with their prediction for the conflict's duration, provides a sobering perspective on the war's trajectory.

Key Developments

Drone Warfare

• Kyiv City/Region:
  • Enemy drones are approaching from the northeast and southwest.
  • Air defense systems are operating in the region, engaging hostile drones.
  • Explosions have been heard in Kyiv.
  • Air raid alerts have been issued.
  • Debris from downed drones has fallen in the Pechersk district of Kyiv, causing a fire in a non-residential building and damage to an apartment building.
  • One person has reportedly sought medical attention.
  • A new group of drones is approaching Kyiv from the southwest.
  • The air raid alert continues.
• Sevastopol: A drone attack on Sevastopol was repelled, with Russian air defenses reportedly shooting down multiple drones and at least one naval drone over the Black Sea.
• Mykolaiv Region:
  • Ukrainian air defense systems engaged multiple Russian drones.
  • One drone was confirmed near Ochakiv.
  • Explosions were reported in Mykolaiv.
  • New Shahed drones were reported heading towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district from the Black Sea.
  • One drone was reported approaching Odesa from the west.
  • One drone was reported to be approaching Starokostiantyniv.
  • Ukrainian forces report that four "Shahed" drones were destroyed overnight by naval personnel.
• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian command post near the Toretsk mine.
  • Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Donetsk Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks.
  • Drones were reported moving from Donetsk Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading northwest.
  • Operators of the 36th Army of the "East" group are conducting night work to destroy enemy manpower in the South Donetsk direction.
• Sumy Oblast:
  • Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle.
  • Sumy Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks.
  • Drones were reported moving south and from Sumy Oblast towards Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Five drones were reported in the Sumy region, moving towards Kharkiv Oblast.
  • The city of Sumy is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the north.
  • A new group of drones from Sumy Oblast is moving into Chernihiv Oblast to the north, with a southwesterly course.
• Poltava Oblast:
  • Three drones were reported north of Poltava, moving west.
  • Two drones were reported flying over Samar, heading northwest.
  • One drone was reported moving from Kharkiv Oblast into Poltava Oblast.
  • Drones in Poltava Oblast are moving southwest and constantly changing course.
  • One drone was reported to be east of Poltava, moving into Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Two drones were reported near Okhtyrka, moving into Poltava Oblast.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Three drones were reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, moving northwest.
• Kirovohrad Oblast: Kirovohrad Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks.
• Zhytomyr:
  • A drone is approaching Zhytomyr from the northwest.
  • Drones in Zhytomyr Oblast are moving towards Zhytomyr from the north.
  • One drone was reported to be west of Zhytomyr, moving into Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
  • Five drones were reported to be in the north of Zhytomyr Oblast.
• Rivne Oblast: Rivne Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks.
• Khmelnytskyi Oblast:
  • Khmelnytskyi Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks.
  • Drones are on the border of Zhytomyr and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts, moving southeast.
• Kyiv Oblast:
  • Drones are in the north of Kyiv Oblast, moving west. Five drones were reported to be moving from Chernihiv Oblast to the north of Kyiv Oblast.
  • Air defense activity is confirmed.
• Chernihiv Oblast:
  • Drones are in Chernihiv Oblast, constantly changing course.
  • Eight drones were reported to be east of Chernihiv, with a southwesterly course.
  • One drone was reported to be circling north of Chernihiv.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are in Kharkiv Oblast, constantly changing course.
• Other Regions:
  • New drone movements were reported in multiple regions, including Kharkiv, Poltava, Odesa, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts.
  • Air raid alerts were issued for multiple regions due to drone threats.
  • One drone was reported circling in the north of Kyiv Oblast.
  • Over 10 drones were detected and destroyed in the suburbs of Voronezh and several districts of the region.
  • Air raid alerts have been issued for Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • Russian forces are highlighting the reconnaissance and targeting capabilities of their ZALA Z-16 and Z-20 drones, which are being used across the frontline. These drones are capable of operating deep in enemy territory and providing real-time data for operational decision-making.
  • A drone was reportedly shot down over Bryansk Oblast.

Ground Operations

• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Kurakhove: Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city and have captured the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant. Ukrainian forces are reportedly withdrawing from the plant.
  • Pokrovsk: Heavy artillery battles are reported. Russian forces are advancing, and Ukrainian forces are transferring reinforcements. A possible false flag operation by Ukrainian forces is suggested in Krasik (Krasnoarmiisk).
  • Vremivka Direction: Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka. They have also reportedly liberated Uspenovka and Novyi Komar. The situation in Velyka Novosilka remains extremely difficult, with Russian forces having severed the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison.
  • Toretsk: Street fighting continues, with Russian forces advancing behind New York.
  • Russian forces reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance group) belonging to the 1st Separate Battalion of the Foreign Legion of Defense of Ukraine near Vozdvyzhenka.
• Kursk Region:
  • Russian forces secured a foothold in Cherkaska Konopelka and made progress in the Sudzhansky district.
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced in the Kursk region, taking control of Kruglenkoye and achieving success east of Pogrebki.
  • A Russian missile strike was reported in the Belovsky district, with no significant damage or casualties reported.
• Kreminna Area:
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced near Kreminna, specifically in the northern part of Terny.
  • Russian forces reportedly advanced in the southern part of Terny.
• Siversk Area: Russian forces reportedly advanced near Siversk.
• Chasiv Yar Area: Russian forces reportedly advanced near Chasiv Yar.
• Other Regions:
  • Kharkiv Region: Russian forces cleared Lozova and are advancing in two directions on the Kupyansk front.

Other Developments

• ISW Report: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released a report on January 1, 2025, detailing the situation on various fronts. The report includes maps and analysis of the fighting. According to the ISW, in 2024, the Russian army captured 4,168 sq. km., primarily fields and small settlements, while losing 427,000 soldiers. The ISW predicts that it may take more than three years for Russian forces to occupy the rest of the Donetsk region, with certain limitations and conditions.
• Prisoner Exchange: 211 Ukrainian POWs and civilians were returned, facilitated by the UAE. This included defenders of Mariupol, Azovstal, Chornobyl NPP, and Zmiinyi Island.
• Geopolitical Developments:
  • North Korean leader Kim Jong Un extended New Year's greetings to Putin.
  • Poland intends to speed up Ukraine's accession to the EU.
  • The US should stop using cybersecurity issues to slander China, the press secretary of the Chinese Embassy in the United States, Liu Pengyu, told TASS.
  • Die Welt reports that Ukraine is currently extremely weakened militarily and will have to enter into negotiations in 2025.
  • The German government accused Elon Musk of attempting to interfere in the elections.
  • The South Korean court issued an arrest warrant for the temporarily suspended President of South Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol.
  • Member of the HRC under the President Kirill Kabanov spoke about the strange awarding of the Order "For Merit to the Fatherland" of the highest I degree.
  • A US court has denied Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin's challenge to a possible deal with the organizers of the 9/11 attacks.
  • Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, in a New Year's address, called the ideology of a "real Armenia" a turning point for the country's history and the basis of the peace agenda.
• Drone Warfare Developments:
  • Reports indicate Ukrainian drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
  • Russia is integrating AI into Shahed drones to enhance their target recognition capabilities, even when offline.
  • The Ukrainian Group 13 of the Main Intelligence Directorate reportedly destroyed two Russian Mi-8 helicopters with anti-aircraft missiles on December 30.
• North Korean Troops: Reports of significant losses and suicides among North Korean troops in the Kursk region.
• Cyber Attacks: The US Treasury Department reported a cyberattack by hackers allegedly linked to China.
• Moldova: The Moldovan thermal power plant in Transnistria will stop supplying electricity to Moldova from January 1, 2025.
• Ukrainian Casualties: TASS has reported over one million Ukrainian military casualties (killed and wounded) since the start of the special operation.
• Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant: Management intends to complete the process of obtaining Russian licenses for the operation of all six power units by 2028.
• Naval Activity:
  • In the Black Sea, one Russian missile carrier is present, but without "Kalibr" missiles on board. No enemy ships are observed in the Azov Sea.
  • In the Mediterranean Sea, eight enemy ships are present, including three equipped with "Kalibr" missiles, with a total of 26 missiles ready.
• Foreigner Regulations: Russian authorities have reduced the permitted period of stay for foreigners without a visa from 180 days to 90 days. This may impact the presence of foreign fighters or advisors in the region.

Analysis

The military situation remains highly dynamic. Russian forces are making significant headway in the Donetsk region, notably capturing the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant and advancing in Kurakhove. The battles in Pokrovsk and the Vremivka direction are intense, with Russian forces making gains.

Ukrainian forces, however, report advancements in the Kursk region and near Kreminna. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian DRG near Vozdvyzhenka underscores ongoing struggles in key areas.

Drone warfare remains a critical factor. The attack on Sevastopol and expanding drone activity now threatening multiple Oblasts, including a new and urgent alert for Kyiv with confirmed air defense activity and reports of falling debris, signify a coordinated and widespread drone offensive. The city of Sumy faces an immediate drone threat from the north. Russian forces are actively using their ZALA drones for reconnaissance and targeting, demonstrating a sophisticated integration of drone technology into their operations. The Ukrainian Navy's report of destroying four "Shahed" drones overnight highlights the effectiveness of their defensive measures.

The ISW report provides valuable insights, highlighting the advances and setbacks of both sides and predicting a prolonged conflict. Geopolitical developments, including statements from international actors and reported internal issues in South Korea, add complexity. Die Welt's report on Ukraine's weakened military position and the possibility of negotiations in 2025 suggests a potential shift in the conflict's trajectory.

The reported high number of Ukrainian casualties, while needing independent verification, highlights the severe human cost of the conflict. The naval activity in the Black Sea, Azov Sea, and Mediterranean Sea suggests a strategic focus on the Mediterranean, while the Black Sea remains a potential threat zone despite the absence of "Kalibr" missiles on the present carrier. The change in regulations for foreigners in Russia could potentially impact the composition of forces in the region.

Strategic Implications

• Russian Momentum: Russian forces are gaining momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region. Their advances could lead to further breakthroughs. The attack on Sevastopol could signal an expansion of the conflict zone. The multiple drone movements across various regions suggest a broadening aerial campaign. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian DRG near Vozdvyzhenka indicates continued Russian efforts to neutralize Ukrainian special operations forces. The showcasing of ZALA drone capabilities indicates a focus on technological superiority in reconnaissance and targeting.
• Ukrainian Defense: Ukrainian forces need to reinforce their defensive lines to prevent further loss of territory. The increasing drone threat, particularly the new alert for Kyiv and the falling debris in the Pechersk district, necessitates enhanced air defense capabilities and rapid response measures. The ongoing drone attack on Odesa and the air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast highlight the urgency of the situation. The new reports of drones in multiple Oblasts suggest a need for heightened alert and rapid response capabilities in these areas. The reported advances in the Kursk region and near Kreminna demonstrate Ukraine's continued ability to conduct counteroffensives.
• Drone Warfare: Drone warfare will likely continue to be a decisive factor, with both sides innovating their capabilities. The attack on Sevastopol highlights the vulnerability of key locations. The continued use of drones by Russian forces to target Ukrainian manpower underscores the evolving nature of combat. The widespread drone activity, the specific movements reported, and the emphasis on ZALA drone capabilities suggest an increased reliance on drone warfare for reconnaissance, targeting, and potentially, large-scale coordinated attacks. The reported destruction of two Russian Mi-8 helicopters by Ukrainian forces underscores the effectiveness of anti-aircraft defenses against aerial threats. The new video showcasing "ZALA Lancet" drone strikes indicates a continued focus on precision targeting and a propaganda effort to highlight Russian military successes. The ongoing drone attacks on Kyiv, with air defense actively engaging the threats, highlight the critical importance of air defense systems in protecting the capital. The falling debris in the Pechersk district underscores the risks to civilian areas even when drones are intercepted.
• International Support: Continued international support remains crucial for Ukraine. The report from Die Welt might influence international opinion and support, potentially impacting the willingness of some countries to continue providing aid. The situation with Elon Musk and the German government could also have implications for international relations and support networks.
• Geopolitical Shifts: The conflict's outcome could significantly impact the geopolitical landscape. The alleged cyberattack on the US Treasury Department and the US's subsequent condemnation of China could further strain US-China relations. The internal political issues in South Korea and the controversy surrounding the awarding of the Russian Order "For Merit to the Fatherland" add further dimensions to the complex geopolitical situation. The new information about the US court's decision regarding the 9/11 attackers, while significant, does not directly alter the geopolitical dynamics of the Ukraine conflict.
• Energy Security: The situation in Moldova and the plans for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant highlight the potential for the conflict to impact energy security in the broader region. The cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine will further exacerbate energy security concerns for European countries.
• Naval Power Dynamics: The naval presence in the Mediterranean suggests a strategic focus, potentially impacting regional power dynamics and requiring heightened monitoring.
• Foreigner Regulations: The change in regulations for foreigners staying in Russia could be aimed at controlling the narrative and limiting the influence of external actors. It could also be a measure to manage internal security and potentially conscript foreigners into military service.

Updated Situation

Russian forces maintain their offensive, achieving significant gains in the Donetsk region, including capturing the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant. Ukrainian forces engage in a fighting withdrawal, consolidating defenses while reporting advances in the Kursk region and near Kreminna. Drone warfare is critical, with the attack on Sevastopol and ongoing drone activity in multiple regions indicating a heightened and expanding aerial threat, now including an urgent alert for Kyiv with confirmed air defense activity and reports of falling debris in the Pechersk district, causing a fire and damage to buildings. The city of Sumy is under immediate threat from drones approaching from the north. Russian forces actively use drones, particularly ZALA models, for reconnaissance and targeting, showcasing their capabilities in new propaganda videos. They have reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian DRG near Vozdvyzhenka. Air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and across much of Ukraine suggest potential further escalation. The humanitarian situation worsens, and international support remains vital, though Die Welt's report might impact dynamics. The geopolitical landscape is in flux, with potential shifts in alliances and strategies, further complicated by recent incidents and internal political issues. The naval situation indicates a strategic focus on the Mediterranean. Russian authorities have implemented new regulations reducing the permitted stay for foreigners, potentially impacting the conflict's dynamics. The situation is highly volatile, with potential for further escalation and significant developments. The reported destruction of two Russian Mi-8 helicopters by Ukrainian forces and the new reports of Ukrainian advances near Kreminna highlight ongoing aerial engagements and Ukrainian counteroffensive capabilities. The ISW's assessment provides a sobering perspective on the war's trajectory. The new information about the prisoner exchange, including the return of defenders of Mariupol, Azovstal, Chornobyl NPP, and Zmiinyi Island, is a significant morale booster for Ukraine. The cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine adds another layer of complexity to the conflict, with potential ramifications for energy security and geopolitical relations.