Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 1, 2025, 03:06 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine is characterized by intense fighting, with Russian forces making significant gains, particularly in the Donetsk region. The capture of the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant and the ongoing battles in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction indicate a critical phase in the conflict. Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges but continue to resist, reporting advances in the Kursk region and near Kreminna. Drone warfare remains a central element. New reports of drone activity in Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, and Rivne Oblasts, along with the threat to Sumy and Khmelnytskyi, indicate a continued and potentially expanding aerial threat.

Key Developments

Drone Warfare

• Sevastopol: A drone attack on Sevastopol was repelled. Russian air defenses reportedly shot down multiple drones, and at least one naval drone over the Black Sea. Two powerful explosions were heard in the city.
• Mykolaiv Region:
  • Ukrainian air defense systems engaged multiple Russian drones.
  • One drone confirmed near Ochakiv.
  • Explosions were reported in Mykolaiv.
  • New Shahed drones were reported to be heading towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district from the Black Sea.
  • One drone was reported to be approaching Odesa from the west.
• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian command post near the Toretsk mine.
  • Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Donetsk Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks.
  • Drones were reported to be moving from Donetsk Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading northwest.
  • Operators of the 36th Army of the "East" group are conducting night work to destroy enemy manpower on the South Donetsk direction.
• Sumy Oblast:
  • Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle.
  • Sumy Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks.
  • Drones were reported to be moving south, and also from Sumy Oblast towards Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Five drones were reported to be in the Sumy region, moving towards Kharkiv Oblast.
  • The city of Sumy is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the north.
• Poltava Oblast: Three drones were reported north of Poltava, moving west. Two drones were reported flying over Samar, heading northwest. One drone was reported moving from Kharkiv Oblast into Poltava Oblast.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Three drones were reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, moving northwest.
• Kirovohrad Oblast: Kirovohrad Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks.
• Zhytomyr: A drone is approaching Zhytomyr from the northwest.
• Rivne Oblast: Rivne Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks.
• Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Khmelnytskyi Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks.
• Other Regions:
  • New drone movements reported in multiple regions, including Kharkiv, Poltava, Odesa, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts.
  • Air raid alerts were issued for multiple regions due to drone threats.
  • One drone was reported to be circling in the north of Kyiv Oblast.
  • Over 10 drones were detected and destroyed in the suburbs of Voronezh and several districts of the region.
  • Air raid alerts have been issued for Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Ground Operations

• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Kurakhove: Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city and have reportedly captured the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant. Ukrainian forces are reportedly withdrawing from the plant.
  • Pokrovsk: Heavy artillery battles reported. Russian forces are advancing, and Ukrainian forces are transferring reinforcements. A possible false flag operation by Ukrainian forces is suggested in Krasik (Krasnoarmiisk).
  • Vremivka Direction: Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka. They have also reportedly liberated Uspenovka and Novyi Komar. The situation in Velyka Novosilka remains extremely difficult, with Russian forces having severed the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison.
  • Toretsk: Street fighting continues, with Russian forces advancing behind New York.
  • Russian forces reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance group) belonging to the 1st Separate Battalion of the Foreign Legion of Defense of Ukraine near Vozdvyzhenka.
• Kursk Region:
  • Russian forces secured a foothold in Cherkaska Konopelka and made progress in the Sudzhansky district.
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced in the Kursk region, taking control of Kruglenkoye and achieving success east of Pogrebki.
• Kreminna Area:
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced near Kreminna, specifically in the northern part of Terny.
  • Russian forces reportedly advanced in the southern part of Terny.
• Siversk Area: Russian forces reportedly advanced near Siversk.
• Chasiv Yar Area: Russian forces reportedly advanced near Chasiv Yar.
• Other Regions:
  • Kharkiv Region: Russian forces cleared Lozova and are advancing in two directions on the Kupyansk front.

Other Developments

• ISW Report: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released a report on January 1, 2025, detailing the situation on various fronts. The report includes maps and analysis of the fighting.
• Prisoner Exchange: 211 Ukrainian POWs and civilians were returned, facilitated by the UAE.
• Geopolitical Developments:
  • North Korean leader Kim Jong Un extended New Year's greetings to Putin.
  • Poland intends to speed up Ukraine's accession to the EU.
  • The US should stop using cybersecurity issues to slander China, the press secretary of the Chinese Embassy in the United States, Liu Pengyu, told TASS.
  • Die Welt reports that Ukraine is currently extremely weakened militarily and will have to enter into negotiations in 2025.
  • The German government accused Elon Musk of attempting to interfere in the elections.
  • The South Korean court issued an arrest warrant for the temporarily suspended President of South Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol.
  • Member of the HRC under the President Kirill Kabanov spoke about the strange awarding of the Order "For Merit to the Fatherland" of the highest I degree.
  • A US court has denied Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin's challenge to a possible deal with the organizers of the 9/11 attacks.
• Drone Warfare Developments:
  • Reports indicate Ukrainian drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
  • Russia is integrating AI into Shahed drones to enhance their target recognition capabilities, even when offline.
• North Korean Troops: Reports of significant losses and suicides among North Korean troops in the Kursk region.
• Cyber Attacks: The US Treasury Department reported a cyberattack by hackers allegedly linked to China.
• Moldova: The Moldovan thermal power plant in Transnistria will stop supplying electricity to Moldova from January 1, 2025.
• Ukrainian Casualties: TASS has reported over one million Ukrainian military casualties (killed and wounded) since the start of the special operation.

Analysis

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic. Russian forces continue to make significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly in Kurakhove, where they have reportedly captured the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant. The battles in Pokrovsk and the Vremivka direction remain intense.

Ukrainian forces, however, are reporting advances in the Kursk region and near Kreminna, suggesting continued resistance and counteroffensive capabilities. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian DRG near Vozdvyzhenka highlights the ongoing struggle for control in key areas.

Drone warfare remains a critical component of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones extensively. The new reports of drone activity in Rivne and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts, in addition to the ongoing threats in other regions, underscore the expanding nature of the aerial threat. The Ukrainian Air Force's reports of drone threats in various oblasts indicate a widespread and coordinated drone campaign. The air raid alerts across a significant portion of Ukraine highlight the potential for further escalation and the need for civilians to remain vigilant.

The ISW report provides valuable insights into the current situation, highlighting the advances and setbacks of both sides. The maps and analysis help to visualize the complex battlefield dynamics.

The geopolitical developments, including the statements from various international actors and the reported internal issues in South Korea, add further complexity to the situation. The report from Die Welt about Ukraine's weakened military position and the possibility of negotiations involving territorial concessions in 2025 adds another layer to the geopolitical analysis, suggesting a potential shift in the conflict's trajectory.

The reported high number of Ukrainian casualties, while needing independent verification, highlights the severe human cost of the conflict.

Strategic Implications

• Russian Momentum: Russian forces are gaining momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region. Their advances could lead to further breakthroughs. The attack on Sevastopol could signal an expansion of the conflict zone. The multiple drone movements across various regions suggest a potential broadening of the aerial campaign. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian DRG near Vozdvyzhenka indicates continued Russian efforts to neutralize Ukrainian special operations forces.
• Ukrainian Defense: Ukrainian forces need to reinforce their defensive lines to prevent further loss of territory. The increasing drone threat necessitates enhanced air defense capabilities. The ongoing drone attack on Odesa and the air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast highlight the urgency of the situation. The new reports of drones in Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi and Sumy Oblasts suggest a need for heightened alert and rapid response capabilities in these areas. The reported advances in the Kursk region and near Kreminna demonstrate Ukraine's continued ability to conduct counteroffensives.
• Drone Warfare: Drone warfare will likely continue to be a decisive factor, with both sides investing in and innovating their capabilities. The attack on Sevastopol highlights the vulnerability of key locations. The continued use of drones by Russian forces to target Ukrainian manpower underscores the evolving nature of combat in this conflict. The widespread drone activity and the specific movements reported suggest an increased reliance on drone warfare for reconnaissance, targeting, and potentially, large-scale coordinated attacks.
• International Support: Continued international support remains crucial for Ukraine. The report from Die Welt might influence international opinion and support, potentially impacting the willingness of some countries to continue providing aid. The situation with Elon Musk and the German government could also have implications for international relations and support networks.
• Geopolitical Shifts: The conflict's outcome could significantly impact the geopolitical landscape. The alleged cyberattack on the US Treasury Department and the US's subsequent condemnation of China could further strain US-China relations. The internal political issues in South Korea and the controversy surrounding the awarding of the Russian Order "For Merit to the Fatherland" add further dimensions to the complex geopolitical situation. The new information about the US court's decision regarding the 9/11 attackers, while significant, does not directly alter the geopolitical dynamics of the Ukraine conflict.
• Energy Security: The situation in Moldova highlights the potential for the conflict to impact energy security in the broader region.

Updated Situation

Russian forces continue to press their offensive, achieving significant gains, particularly in the Donetsk region, with the reported capture of the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal, attempting to consolidate their defenses while also reporting advances in the Kursk region and near Kreminna. Drone warfare remains a critical component, with the attack on Sevastopol and ongoing drone activity in multiple regions, now including Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Rivne, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts, indicating a heightened and potentially expanding aerial threat. The city of Sumy is under immediate threat from drones approaching from the north. Russian forces are actively using drones to target and eliminate Ukrainian manpower, and have reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian DRG near Vozdvyzhenka. The air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and across a large portion of Ukraine suggest the potential for further escalation. The humanitarian situation is worsening, and international support remains vital for Ukraine, although the report from Die Welt might impact the dynamics of this support. The geopolitical landscape is in flux, with potential shifts in alliances and strategies emerging, further complicated by recent international incidents and internal political issues in various countries. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and significant developments in the coming days and weeks.