Updated Military Situation in Ukraine - January 1, 2025, 00:17 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with ongoing fighting, significant casualties, and a high risk of further escalation. Russian forces have made a notable advance in Kurakhove, capturing the Kurakhovskaya Thermal Power Plant. Ukrainian military bloggers confirm that Russian forces have advanced in Kurakhove, Solone, and near Vovkove. Drone warfare continues to be a prominent feature, with a significant drone threat reported across multiple regions. New reports indicate drones moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast in a southwesterly direction, with some drones near the city of Poltava itself and others near Lubny heading northeast. Drones are also reported in the north of Sumy Oblast moving southwest, in the north and center of Chernihiv Oblast also moving southwest, and one drone north of Cherkasy, heading towards Kyiv Oblast. A drone from the Kyiv region is heading towards Zhytomyr. An air raid alert has been lifted in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. However, a new attack has caused several houses to catch fire in the region, and emergency services have rescued one woman. Residents of Poltava are urged to take shelter due to the drone threat, and a drone threat has been issued for Kyiv Oblast and Zhytomyr Oblast. The capture of the Kurakhovskaya TPP and the offensive towards Pokrovsk represent a significant shift in the balance of power in the Donetsk region. The continued drone attacks and widespread drone threats highlight the persistent threat to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The strategic implications of the conflict continue to evolve, with potential impacts on regional and global stability.

Key Developments

Donetsk Oblast

Kurakhove: Russian forces have made a significant advance, capturing the Kurakhovskaya Thermal Power Plant and reportedly controlling approximately 80% of the city. Ukrainian forces are reportedly withdrawing. Ukrainian military bloggers confirm that Russian forces have advanced in Kurakhove, Solone, and near Vovkove. Video evidence suggests that Russian forces have captured the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant, solidifying their control over a key strategic point in the city.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are continuing offensive operations towards Pokrovsk, with reports of intense fighting. They are advancing south towards Ukrainka, reportedly entering Pisky, storming Novooleenovka, and advancing towards Slavyanka.
Vremivka: Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka, and liberated Uspenovka and Novyi Komar. Clashes are ongoing near multiple settlements.
Toretsk: Street fighting continues, with Russian forces capturing two objects on the outskirts of the "Central" mine spoil heap.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control over half of the city, with Ukrainian units regrouping.

Kharkiv Oblast

Volchansk: Russian forces launched a new offensive, crossing the Volchya River and establishing a bridgehead.
Kupyansk: Fighting continues, with reports of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian positions.
Drone Activity: New reports indicate drones moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast in a southwesterly direction, with some drones near the city of Poltava itself.

Other Regions

Kyiv: Air raid alerts were activated and lifted. Reports of air defense activity and explosions. A drone is moving towards Kyiv from the north. A drone from the Kyiv region is heading towards Zhytomyr. New reports indicate a drone approaching Vyshgorod/Kyiv from the northeast.
Zaporizhzhia: Air raid alerts were activated and lifted. A new attack has caused several houses to catch fire in the region, and emergency services have rescued one woman.
Sumy: Air raid alerts were activated due to drone threats. A high-speed target was reported in the direction of Shostka. Drones are also reported in the north of the region moving southwest. New reports of drones in the north of Sumy Oblast moving southwest. New drones are entering Sumy Oblast, with a southwesterly course.
Mykolaiv: Air raid alerts were activated and lifted due to drone threats. Reports of drone attacks. 1 new drone from the Black Sea is heading towards Ovidiopol.
Odesa: Reports of drone attacks. 1 new drone from the Black Sea is heading towards Ovidiopol.
Kursk Oblast: Heavy fighting with reports of Ukrainian drone and HIMARS strikes. New reports indicate a missile strike by Ukrainian forces on the Belovsky district in the early hours of 2025.
Chernihiv Oblast: Drone threat reported. New reports of drones in the north and center of the region, heading southwest. New drones are in Chernihiv Oblast, heading towards Kyiv Oblast.
Poltava Oblast: Drone threat reported in the region, specifically near Lubny. New reports indicate drones near Lubny heading northeast, and others moving towards Poltava city in a southwesterly direction. Residents of Poltava are urged to take shelter due to the drone threat.
Cherkasy Oblast: Drone threat reported. A drone in Cherkasy Oblast is moving southeast.
Zhytomyr Oblast: A drone threat has been issued for the region. A drone from the Kyiv region is heading towards Zhytomyr. New reports indicate a drone approaching Zhytomyr.

Drone Warfare Highlights

AI Integration: Russia is confirmed to be integrating AI into Shahed drones.
Ukrainian Innovations: Shotgun-mounted drones are being used to down enemy drones.
Extensive Use: FPV drones are being used extensively by both sides.
Targeting Successes: Ukrainian forces report multiple successful drone strikes on Russian equipment, personnel, and infrastructure.
New Drone Attacks: Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight. New reports of multiple drones targeting Zaporizhzhia and Ukrainian air defenses actively engaging these threats. New reports indicate drones moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast in a southwesterly direction, with some drones near the city of Poltava itself and others near Lubny heading northeast. Drones are also reported in the north of Sumy Oblast moving southwest, in the north and center of Chernihiv Oblast also moving southwest, and one drone north of Cherkasy, heading towards Kyiv Oblast. A drone from the Kyiv region is heading towards Zhytomyr.
Drone Attack on Russian Helicopter: A Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone reportedly shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea.
Sevastopol: Under attack by drones, with Russian air defenses reportedly shooting down two drones over the Black Sea.
New Drone Movements:
- One drone is approaching Zhytomyr.
- Three drones from Chernihiv Oblast have flown to Belarus.
- Two drones from Chernihiv Oblast are also heading to Belarus.
- Two drones from Chernihiv Oblast are moving to the north of Kyiv Oblast.
- Four drones are near Nizhyn.
- One drone flew past Pryluky in a southerly direction.
- One drone from Chernihiv Oblast is moving to Sumy Oblast.
- Nine drones are flying through Okhtyrka towards Poltava Oblast.
- One drone is near Sumy, heading south.
- Two drones from Sumy Oblast are moving to Poltava Oblast.
- One drone is still circling north of Cherkasy.
- Drones are reported in Zhytomyr Oblast, heading southwest.
- Drones in Chernihiv Oblast are constantly changing course, with some heading towards Kyiv Oblast.
- A significant number of drones are in the south of Sumy Oblast, heading southwest towards Poltava Oblast. New drones in the north of Sumy Oblast are heading towards Chernihiv Oblast.
- Drones are in the northern part of Poltava Oblast, heading southwest.
- Drones are approaching Vyshgorod/Kyiv from the northeast.

Other Significant Updates

Continued Air Activity: Reports indicate ongoing air activity with the take-off of a MiG-31K from Savasleyka and the launch of X-22 missiles from Tu-22M3 bombers.
Military Engagements: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 168 combat clashes over the past day, with significant Russian losses.
Explosions in Sevastopol: Reports of loud explosions in Sevastopol overnight.
SpaceX and Starlink: SpaceX has reportedly entered into a new agreement to provide satellite communication services to Ukraine through Kyivstar.
Potential Assault in Kherson Region: Reports suggest that Russian forces are preparing for an assault in the Kherson region.
Fundraising Campaigns: Several fundraising campaigns for both Ukrainian and Russian forces are ongoing.
Ukraine's Commitment to Syria: Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Ukraine will "do everything possible to help Syria get rid of Russian influence."
Attacks on Infrastructure in Shostka: Reports that 12 apartment buildings, 2 educational institutions, and several infrastructure facilities were damaged in Shostka.
Frontline Report from Seversk Direction: Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces are continuing to destroy Russian forces near Verkhnokamyanske.
Russian Naval Successes: The Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy reported that the Pacific Fleet was ranked first among Russian fleets in 2024.
Increase in Crimes Committed by Migrants in Russia: Reports of a significant increase in crimes committed by migrants in Russia in 2024.
Propaganda Efforts: Ongoing propaganda efforts by both sides.
Report of Ukrainian delegation visit to Damascus: Ukrainian delegation visited Damascus. Kyiv is reportedly interested in acquiring jihadists, particularly Chechens, and weapons.
Claim of potential appearance of Chechen fighters in the Special Military Operation zone: Chechen fighters who previously fought in Aleppo and Homs might soon appear in the conflict zone, fighting on the Ukrainian side.
Appointment of former head of Kyiv Regional State Administration: Ruslan Kravchenko has been appointed head of the State Tax Service of Ukraine.
Updated Situation: The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with ongoing fighting, significant casualties, and a high risk of further escalation. Russian forces have made a notable advance in Kurakhove, capturing the Kurakhovskaya Thermal Power Plant. Drone warfare continues to be a prominent feature, with reports of multiple drones targeting Zaporizhzhia and Ukrainian air defenses actively engaging these threats. Russian forces are continuing their offensive operations towards Pokrovsk, with intense fighting reported. The capture of the Kurakhovskaya TPP and the offensive towards Pokrovsk represent a significant shift in the balance of power in the Donetsk region. The continued drone attacks on Zaporizhzhia highlight the persistent threat to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The strategic implications of the conflict continue to evolve, with potential impacts on regional and global stability.
New message from DeepState: Reports that the enemy has advanced in Kurakhove, Solone and near Vovkove.
New message from Dva Mayora: Reports from the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment on the Kurakhove direction indicate continued fighting and communication of soldiers with their families.
New message from the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Drone threat in Poltava Oblast. Drone threat in Cherkasy Oblast. Residents of Poltava are urged to take shelter due to the drone threat.
New message from Mykolaivsky Vanyok: Reports that multiple drones in the north of Chernihiv Oblast are moving southwest, one drone in Sumy Oblast is moving south, one drone is moving from Poltava to Cherkasy Oblast, and one drone moved from Kharkiv to Poltava Oblast.
New message from the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports that drones are moving from Kharkiv Oblast to Poltava Oblast in a southwesterly direction towards Poltava city, drones are in the north of Sumy Oblast moving southwest, drones are in Poltava Oblast near Lubny moving southwest, and new drones are in the north and center of Chernihiv Oblast moving southwest. Reports of drones near Lubny in Poltava Oblast heading northeast.
New message from the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration: Air raid alert lifted in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Several private houses are on fire in one of the settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to an enemy attack. Emergency services rescued a woman and are working at the scene.
New message from RBC-Ukraine: Residents of Poltava are urged to take shelter due to the threat of enemy drones. Several private houses are on fire in one of the settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to an enemy attack. Emergency services rescued a woman.
New message from Dva Mayora: New Year's greetings from the Storm unit in Toretsk. A video shows a Christmas tree decorated with a mix of traditional and war-related items. It highlights the impact of conflict on everyday life, showcasing psychological resilience and possible adaptations in a war zone. The inclusion of the "To the Enemy" munition box is noteworthy, signaling a clear message.
New message from the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Movement of drones: Drones from Sumy Oblast are moving to Poltava Oblast, course - south. Drones in the north of Cherkasy Oblast, course - west. A significant number of drones in Chernihiv Oblast, course - south-west.
New message from Mykolaivsky Vanyok: 1 drone north of Cherkasy, heading towards Kyiv Oblast. 2 drones from Sumy Oblast are moving to Poltava Oblast. 1 drone from Chernihiv Oblast is heading north of Kyiv Oblast. 1 drone is approaching Chernihiv. 17 drones from the northeast of Chernihiv Oblast are heading southwest. 8 new drones are passing through Sumy district, heading southwest. 1 drone is circling north of Cherkasy. 1 drone from Kyiv Oblast is heading towards Zhytomyr Oblast. 8 drones are circling near Chernihiv. 3 drones are circling east of Chernihiv. 1 drone from Chernihiv Oblast is heading towards Kyiv Oblast.
New message from the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Kyiv Oblast - the threat of enemy drones. Drones in Kyiv Oblast are heading towards Zhytomyr Oblast. Drones in Cherkasy Oblast are heading southeast. Drones in Chernihiv Oblast are heading towards Kyiv Oblast. New drones are entering Sumy Oblast, heading southwest.
New message from RBC-Ukraine: According to the Air Force, "Shahed" drones are currently observed in the following regions: in Kyiv Oblast, heading towards Zhytomyr Oblast; in Cherkasy Oblast, heading southeast; in Chernihiv Oblast, heading towards Kyiv Oblast; new drones are entering Sumy Oblast, heading southwest.
New message from the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Zhytomyr Oblast - the threat of enemy drones.
Loss of Russian Aircraft Crews: A message from Fighterbomber reports the loss of multiple "best" Russian aircraft crews in late 2024, the highest number of losses since 2022. This suggests a significant blow to the Russian Air Force, potentially impacting their operational capabilities.

Changes Brought by New Messages

Increased Drone Activity: The new messages significantly increase the reported drone activity across multiple regions of Ukraine, including Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Poltava, and Sumy Oblasts. This indicates a widespread and likely coordinated drone attack by Russian forces.
New Drone Threats: Drone threats have been issued for Zhytomyr and Kyiv Oblasts, expanding the areas under immediate threat.
Civilian Impact: The report of houses on fire in Zaporizhzhia Oblast highlights the direct impact of the attacks on civilian areas.
Propaganda and Morale: The New Year's greetings from the Storm unit in Toretsk, along with a video showing a Christmas tree decorated with war-related items, are likely part of Russian propaganda efforts to boost morale and demonstrate resilience.
Losses in the Russian Air Force: The reported loss of multiple "best" Russian aircraft crews is a significant development, potentially indicating successful Ukrainian air defense operations or other factors. This could have implications for the future conduct of air operations by Russia.
Missile Strike on Kursk Oblast: The reported missile strike on the Belovsky district of Kursk Oblast in the early hours of 2025 marks a potential escalation, bringing the conflict further into Russian territory.

The new messages underscore the intensification of drone warfare and its impact on civilian populations. The widespread drone attacks suggest a concerted effort by Russian forces to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and strike targets across a broad area. The loss of Russian aircraft crews and the missile strike on Kursk Oblast indicate a potential shift in the dynamics of the conflict. The situation remains highly dynamic, with the potential for further escalation.

Situation Report