Key Military Situation Updates in Ukraine - December 31, 2024

Strategic Overview

Intense Fighting in Donetsk and Kharkiv: The situation remains critical, particularly around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and along the Vremivka direction.
Russian Advances: Reports indicate significant Russian advances, notably the capture of Kurakhove, with fighting ongoing in the industrial zone on the western outskirts.
Drone Warfare: Extensive use of drones by both sides, with Russia reportedly integrating AI into Shahed drones. Ukrainian forces are innovating counter-drone measures and targeting Russian logistics with drones.
Air Activity: Multiple strategic bombers launched by Russia with cruise missiles, indicating a large-scale air assault. Air raid alerts activated and lifted multiple times across Ukraine, including in Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Mykolaiv Oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging drones and missiles.

Key Developments

Donetsk Oblast

Kurakhove: Russian forces reportedly captured the entirety of Kurakhove, with fighting continuing in the industrial zone. Confirmed reports that Kurakhove thermal power plant is under Russian control. Ukrainian forces report Russian forces used drones to target positions of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in the Kurakhovo direction.
Pokrovsk: Heavy fighting reported, with Ukrainian forces engaged in a fighting withdrawal. Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces report operators of drones from the "Center" group continue to hunt for Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk direction.
Vremivka: Russian forces making advances along this direction.
Toretsk: Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian command post near the Toretsk mine.

Kharkiv Oblast

Volchansk: Russian forces launched a new offensive, crossing the Volchya River and establishing a bridgehead near Volchansk.
Kupyansk: Fighting continues in the Kupyansk direction, and Kyiv is transferring reserves to Lozova. Reports of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian positions. One Ukrainian soldier was killed, and another injured in Kupiansk due to shelling by Russian forces. A Ukrainian drone hit a civilian man walking down the street in Kupyansk.
Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements in Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to the south-west and west, in Chernihiv Oblast to the west, and new groups in the east of Kharkiv Oblast to the west.

Kursk Oblast

Heavy Fighting: Ongoing engagements with reports of Ukrainian HIMARS strikes.
Alleged Atrocities: Reports of atrocities and a Ukrainian soldier surrendering after reading a leaflet.
Drone Warfare: Ukrainian forces conducted a drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot. Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans.

Other Regions

Kyiv: Air raid alerts activated and lifted. Reports of air defense activity and explosions. Threat of ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv and Vasylkiv.
Zaporizhzhia: Air raid alerts activated and lifted. Reports of drone attacks. Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian communication tower and a supply depot.
Sumy: Air raid alerts activated due to drone threats. A high-speed target was reported in the direction of Shostka.
Mykolaiv: Air raid alerts activated and lifted due to drone threats. Reports of drone attacks.
Odesa: Reports of drone attacks. Ukrainian Air Force reports new Shahed drones from the Black Sea are heading towards the south of Odesa Oblast.

Drone Warfare Highlights

AI Integration: Russia reportedly integrating AI into Shahed drones.
Ukrainian Innovations: Shotgun-mounted drones used to down enemy drones.
Extensive Use: FPV drones used extensively by both sides.
Targeting Successes: Ukrainian forces report multiple successful drone strikes on Russian equipment, personnel, and infrastructure.
Casualties: Reports of a Russian drone strike on the central market in Nikopol, injuring eight civilians.

Geopolitical and Other Developments

US Support: Continued US support for Ukraine.
NATO Presence: Increased NATO presence in the Baltic Sea.
BRICS Expansion: Potential expansion discussed, highlighting global instability.
Russian Counter-Extremism Strategy: Introduction of new strategy, including "Russophobia" concept.
Civilian Airliner Crash: Crash in South Korea with significant casualties, underscoring global instability.
Telegram Disruptions: Reports of Telegram outages in Russia and abroad.
Ukrainian Diplomatic Efforts: Ukraine seeking to broaden international support, including a visit to Damascus.
Poland's EU Accession Support: Poland intends to speed up Ukraine's accession to the EU.
New Year's Eve Celebrations: The main Ded Moroz (Russian Santa Claus) wished all soldiers participating in the special military operation the fulfillment of their desires and a reliable rear. In Moscow, there are no exceptions for violating the silence on New Year's Eve, and the launch of fireworks after 23:00 is prohibited.
War Crimes Accusations: Some of the military personnel participating in the New Year's shows on Russian television channels are accused of war crimes in Ukraine.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely volatile, with intense fighting focused on the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces are making significant advances, particularly around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and along the Vremivka direction. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with both sides utilizing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Russia's reported integration of AI into Shahed drones represents a concerning development.

Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal in some areas, notably towards the Dnipro River, while also launching new offensives in others, such as near Volchansk. They are employing counter-drone measures and inflicting losses on Russian troops and equipment.

The air situation is highly active, with Russia launching multiple strategic bombers and deploying cruise missiles. Air raid alerts have been repeatedly activated and lifted across Ukraine, including in Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Mykolaiv Oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging drones and missiles.

The new reports of air defense activity and explosions in Kyiv, along with the threat of ballistic missiles, indicate that the capital remains a target. The continued air activity over Russia, with the launch of strategic bombers and X-22 missiles, suggests that Russia is maintaining its air campaign. The reports of a high-speed target in the direction of Shostka, Sumy Oblast, and the ongoing fighting in Kharkiv Oblast, highlight the continued intensity of the conflict in these regions. The evacuation of civilians from the Kupiansk and Borivskyi directions underscores the humanitarian impact of the fighting.

The Ukrainian General Staff's report of 168 combat clashes, one missile strike, and 1864 kamikaze drone attacks over the past day, along with the reported Russian losses, provides a quantitative measure of the conflict's intensity. The "Ghost Khortytsia" battalion's reported drone activities and claimed successes highlight the growing importance of drone warfare in the conflict.

The involvement of military personnel accused of war crimes in New Year's celebrations on Russian television is a disturbing development that underscores the brutality of the conflict. The propaganda efforts by both sides, including the video from the "T.ME/RUSICH_ARMY" Telegram channel and the video of the Russian soldier in a Ded Moroz costume, highlight the ongoing information war alongside the physical conflict.

The overall situation remains highly volatile, with ongoing fighting, significant casualties, and a high risk of further escalation. The strategic implications of the conflict continue to evolve, with potential impacts on regional and global stability.

Situation Report