Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - December 31, 2024, 02:47 UTC

Key Developments

Drone Warfare

• Sevastopol: A drone attack on Sevastopol was repelled. Russian air defenses reportedly shot down multiple drones, and at least one naval drone over the Black Sea. Two powerful explosions were heard in the city, signaling a continuation and possible intensification of drone attacks targeting this area. There are also reports of helicopters being scrambled. This highlights the continued vulnerability of key locations to drone attacks and the importance of drone warfare in the conflict.
• Mykolaiv Region:
  • Ukrainian air defense systems engaged multiple Russian drones.
  • One drone confirmed near Ochakiv.
  • Explosions were reported in Mykolaiv.
  • New Shahed drones were reported to be heading towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district from the Black Sea.
  • One drone was reported to be approaching Odesa from the west, with the potential for anti-drone operations to be heard.
• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian command post near the Toretsk mine.
  • Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Donetsk Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks.
  • Drones were reported to be moving from Donetsk Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading northwest.
  • Operators of the 36th Army of the "East" group are conducting night work to destroy enemy manpower on the South Donetsk direction.
• Sumy Oblast:
  • Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle.
  • Sumy Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks.
  • Drones were reported to be moving south, and also from Sumy Oblast towards Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Five drones were reported to be in the Sumy region, moving towards Kharkiv Oblast.
  • A high-speed target was reported in the Shostka area, moving west.
  • One new drone was reported in Sumy Oblast, heading towards Poltava Oblast.
• Poltava Oblast:
  • Three drones were reported north of Poltava, moving west.
  • Two drones were reported flying over Samar, heading northwest.
  • One drone was reported moving from Kharkiv Oblast into Poltava Oblast.
  • Drones were reported in the southern part of Poltava Oblast, moving northwest.
  • Drones are active in the Kremenchuk area, moving northwest. Residents were urged to remain in shelters due to drone activity over the city.
  • Two drones from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast have moved into Poltava Oblast, moving northwest.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Drones are active in the northern and southeastern parts of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving northwest.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
  • Three drones were reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, moving northwest.
  • One drone moved from Zaporizhzhia Oblast into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving north.
• Other Regions:
  • New drone movements reported in multiple regions, including Kharkiv, Poltava, Odesa, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts.
  • Air raid alerts were issued for multiple regions due to drone threats.
  • One drone was reported to be circling in the north of Kyiv Oblast.
  • Over 10 drones were detected and destroyed in the suburbs of Voronezh and several districts of the region.
  • Air raid alerts have been issued for Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • Drones were reported north and south of Dnipro, moving northwest.
  • Missile strikes and air defense activity were reported in Sumy, Kyiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts.
  • Drones are active in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving northwest.
  • Drones are active in Poltava Oblast, moving west/northwest.
  • One drone was reported in the south of Kharkiv Oblast, moving north.
  • Video evidence shows the enemy's use of drones with thermite mixture to set fire to strongholds, despite the winter conditions.
• Smolensk Oblast: A fuel depot in Yartsevo is on fire following a drone attack. The head of the district confirmed the attack, stating that it targeted a "fuel and energy complex facility." Emergency services are working to extinguish the fire. This marks a significant escalation, as it demonstrates Ukraine's ability to strike targets deep within Russian territory. The new video evidence confirms the severity of the attack and the ongoing efforts to control the fire.

Ground Operations

• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Kurakhove: Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city and are storming the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant, with Ukrainian forces reportedly withdrawing from the plant. This represents a significant advance for Russian forces. Video evidence suggests that Russian forces have captured the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant. This is considered a key point in the battle for the city.
  • Pokrovsk: Heavy artillery battles reported. Russian forces are advancing, and Ukrainian forces are transferring reinforcements. A possible false flag operation by Ukrainian forces is suggested in Krasik (Krasnoarmiisk).
  • Vremivka Direction: Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka. They have also reportedly liberated Uspenovka and Novyi Komar. The situation in Velyka Novosilka remains extremely difficult, with Russian forces having severed the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison.
  • Toretsk: Street fighting continues, with Russian forces advancing behind New York.
• Other Regions:
  • Kursk Region: Russian forces secured a foothold in Cherkaska Konopelka and made progress in the Sudzhansky district.
  • Kharkiv Region: Russian forces cleared Lozova and are advancing in two directions on the Kupyansk front.

Ballistic Missile Threat

• Kyiv: Air raid alerts have been issued for Kyiv due to the threat of ballistic missiles. Residents were urged to seek shelter. Air defense systems were reportedly active. Explosions were heard in the city. There was a reported threat of ballistic missiles from the northeast and from Bryansk and Kursk. The ballistic missile threat has been lifted.
• Shostka: There was a threat of ballistic missiles targeting Shostka. Four strikes were reported in the area. The ballistic missile threat has been lifted.
• Sevastopol: Reports indicate a combined attack on Sevastopol, with a series of powerful explosions from the sea, likely targeting naval drones. Air defense systems have reportedly shot down drones over the city.

Other Developments

• Prisoner Exchange: 211 Ukrainian POWs and civilians were returned, facilitated by the UAE.
• Geopolitical Developments:
  • North Korean leader Kim Jong Un extended New Year's greetings to Putin, calling him the "closest friend and comrade" and expressing solidarity with the Russian people and army. He also wished for 2025 to be a year of victory over neo-Nazis.
  • Poland intends to speed up Ukraine's accession to the EU.
  • The US should stop using cybersecurity issues to slander China, the press secretary of the Chinese Embassy in the United States, Liu Pengyu, told TASS.
  • Die Welt reports that Ukraine is currently extremely weakened militarily and will have to enter into negotiations in 2025, where the only option is territorial concessions.
  • The German government accused Elon Musk of attempting to interfere in the elections.
  • The South Korean court issued an arrest warrant for the temporarily suspended President of South Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol, on suspicion of mutiny.
  • A member of the HRC under the President of Russia, Kirill Kabanov, criticized the awarding of the Order "For Merit to the Fatherland" of the highest I degree to the head of the DUM, Ravil Gainutdin, who called for replacing Russians with migrants.
  • The crash of a Boeing airplane in South Korea was caused by a confluence of unfavorable factors, according to The New York Times. Part of the runway at Muan Airport was inaccessible due to construction work, and the pilot lost control of the engines and landing gear.
  • Crimean paratroopers received New Year's gifts with letters, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
  • Per a presidential order, the "Wish Tree" initiative has reached new regions of Russia to fulfill children's dreams. In the Kherson region, gifts were distributed to children, including an electric guitar, a bicycle, an electric scooter, and gaming tablets.
  • Video evidence shows a press conference where Kanat Bozumbayev, Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan and head of the commission investigating the downing of an Azerbaijani Embraer aircraft by the Russian army, criticized the lack of organized cooperation from Russia in the investigation. He praised Azerbaijan's cooperation and stated that they are providing treatment, food, and clothing to captured Russian soldiers.
• Drone Warfare Developments:
  • Reports indicate Ukrainian drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
  • Russia is integrating AI into Shahed drones to enhance their target recognition capabilities, even when offline.
• North Korean Troops: Reports of significant losses and suicides among North Korean troops in the Kursk region.
• Cyber Attacks: The US Treasury Department reported a cyberattack by hackers allegedly linked to China.
• Moldova: The Moldovan thermal power plant in Transnistria will stop supplying electricity to Moldova from January 1, 2025.
• Moscow: A Moscow court sent a nurse and two unemployed women to jail for involvement in child trafficking.
• Oryol and Smolensk Oblasts: Reports of an air attack in Oryol and Smolensk Oblasts. An oil depot in Yartsevo, Smolensk Oblast, was allegedly hit. Video footage circulating online shows the aftermath of the attack on the oil facility.

Analysis

The military situation in Ukraine is characterized by intense fighting, with Russian forces making significant gains, particularly in the Donetsk region. The capture of the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant and the ongoing battles in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction indicate a critical phase in the conflict. Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges but continue to resist.

Drone warfare remains a central element, with the attack on Sevastopol highlighting its importance and the vulnerability of key locations. The new reports of drone activity in multiple regions, including near Kyiv and Poltava, and the ongoing drone attack on Odesa indicate a continued and potentially expanding aerial threat, particularly with three drones reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast moving northwest and three more north of Poltava moving west. The air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast also indicate the potential for further escalation. The latest reports indicate that the Russian military continues to utilize drones to target and eliminate Ukrainian manpower, highlighting the strategic importance of unmanned aerial vehicles in modern warfare. The multiple drone sightings in various regions, particularly the movement towards the northwest in Poltava and Zaporizhzhia, suggest a coordinated drone operation possibly targeting multiple locations simultaneously. The new movement of drones in Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts, especially near Kremenchuk, adds to the ongoing aerial threat and indicates a potential escalation in drone activity in these areas. The continued use of drones with thermite mixtures by the enemy, even in winter conditions, highlights the evolving tactics and the need for Ukrainian forces to adapt their defenses accordingly. The confirmed drone attack on a fuel depot in Yartsevo, Smolensk Oblast, represents a significant escalation in the conflict. This attack demonstrates Ukraine's ability to strike targets deep within Russian territory, potentially disrupting Russian logistics and energy infrastructure. The video evidence of the fire and the confirmation from local authorities underscore the severity of the situation.

The threat of ballistic missiles, which targeted Kyiv and Shostka, added another dimension to the conflict, indicating a potential escalation in the intensity and nature of attacks. The reported strikes in Shostka and the activation of air defense systems in Kyiv underscored the severity of this threat. The threat of ballistic missiles from Bryansk and Kursk added complexity to the situation. The lifting of the ballistic missile threat is a significant development, though the continued drone activity suggests that the aerial threat remains.

The involvement of North Korean troops, although marked by high casualties and reported suicides, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. Geopolitical developments, such as Kim Jong Un's New Year's greetings to Putin, Poland's support for Ukraine's EU accession, and the US stance on China's cybersecurity activities, reflect the broader international context. The new report from Die Welt about Ukraine's weakened military position and the possibility of negotiations involving territorial concessions in 2025 adds another layer to the geopolitical analysis, suggesting a potential shift in the conflict's trajectory. The accusation from the German government regarding Elon Musk's alleged interference in their elections, coupled with the arrest warrant for the South Korean President, further complicates the international situation, potentially impacting alliances and support for Ukraine. The new information about the crash of a Boeing airplane in South Korea, while not directly related to the conflict, adds to the list of international incidents. The criticism from the Kazakh official regarding Russia's lack of cooperation in the investigation of the downed Azerbaijani aircraft further strains international relations and highlights potential issues in casualty management and prisoner treatment.

Strategic Implications

• Russian Momentum: Russian forces are gaining momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region. Their advances could lead to further breakthroughs. The attack on Sevastopol could signal an expansion of the conflict zone. The multiple drone movements across various regions suggest a potential broadening of the aerial campaign. The lifting of the ballistic missile threat is a positive development for Ukraine, but the continued drone activity indicates that the aerial threat persists. The new drone activity near Kremenchuk and in Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts suggests a potential expansion of the drone threat to these regions. The attack on the fuel depot in Smolensk Oblast could disrupt Russian logistics and energy supplies, potentially impacting their ability to sustain operations.
• Ukrainian Defense: Ukrainian forces need to reinforce their defensive lines to prevent further loss of territory. The increasing drone threat necessitates enhanced air defense capabilities. The ongoing drone attack on Odesa and the air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast highlight the urgency of the situation. The new reports of drones in Poltava and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts suggest a need for heightened alert and rapid response capabilities in these areas. The continued movement of drones in Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts, especially near Kremenchuk, requires ongoing vigilance and enhanced air defense measures.
• Drone Warfare: Drone warfare will likely continue to be a decisive factor, with both sides investing in and innovating their capabilities. The attack on Sevastopol highlights the vulnerability of key locations. The continued use of drones by Russian forces to target Ukrainian manpower underscores the evolving nature of combat in this conflict. The widespread drone activity and the specific movements reported suggest an increased reliance on drone warfare for reconnaissance, targeting, and potentially, large-scale coordinated attacks. The use of drones with thermite mixtures indicates a new tactic that Ukrainian forces must counter. The successful drone attack on the fuel depot in Smolensk Oblast underscores the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare and their ability to strike strategic targets deep within Russian territory.
• International Support: Continued international support remains crucial for Ukraine. The report from Die Welt might influence international opinion and support, potentially impacting the willingness of some countries to continue providing aid. The situation with Elon Musk and the German government could also have implications for international relations and support networks. The criticism from the Kazakh official regarding Russia's handling of the investigation into the downed Azerbaijani aircraft could further strain international relations and impact diplomatic efforts.
• Geopolitical Shifts: The conflict's outcome could significantly impact the geopolitical landscape. The alleged cyberattack on the US Treasury Department and the US's subsequent condemnation of China could further strain US-China relations. The internal political issues in South Korea and the controversy surrounding the awarding of the Russian Order "For Merit to the Fatherland" add further dimensions to the complex geopolitical situation.
• Energy Security: The situation in Moldova highlights the potential for the conflict to impact energy security in the broader region. The attack on the fuel depot in Smolensk Oblast also raises concerns about energy security and the potential for further attacks on critical infrastructure.

Updated Situation

Russian forces continue to press their offensive, achieving significant gains, particularly in the Donetsk region. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal, attempting to consolidate their defenses. Drone warfare remains a critical component, with the attack on Sevastopol and ongoing drone activity in multiple regions indicating a heightened and potentially expanding aerial threat, now also confirmed by multiple drone sightings in Poltava and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts moving towards the northwest. Russian forces are actively using drones to target and eliminate Ukrainian manpower. The new drone activity near Kremenchuk and in Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts indicates a potential escalation in drone warfare in these areas. The air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast suggest the potential for further escalation. The ballistic missile threat, which targeted Kyiv and Shostka, has been lifted, but drone activity continues in Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts.

A significant development is the confirmed drone attack on a fuel depot in Yartsevo, Smolensk Oblast, deep inside Russian territory. This attack highlights Ukraine's growing capability to strike strategic targets far beyond the front lines and could have significant implications for Russia's logistical and energy infrastructure. Video evidence confirms the severity of the fire and the ongoing efforts to contain it. The humanitarian situation is worsening, and international support remains vital for Ukraine, although the report from Die Welt might impact the dynamics of this support. The geopolitical landscape is in flux, with potential shifts in alliances and strategies emerging, further complicated by recent international incidents and internal political issues in various countries. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and significant developments in the coming days and weeks, particularly with the ongoing drone threat, now intensified by the new movements in Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts and the successful attack in Smolensk Oblast. The use of drones with thermite mixtures by the enemy adds another layer of complexity to the conflict, requiring Ukrainian forces to adapt their defensive strategies.