Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - December 31, 2024, 01:47 UTC

Key Developments

Drone Warfare

• Sevastopol: A drone attack on Sevastopol was repelled. Russian air defenses reportedly shot down multiple drones, and at least one naval drone over the Black Sea. Two powerful explosions were heard in the city, signaling a continuation and possible intensification of drone attacks targeting this area. There are also reports of helicopters being scrambled. This highlights the continued vulnerability of key locations to drone attacks and the importance of drone warfare in the conflict.
• Mykolaiv Region:
  • Ukrainian air defense systems engaged multiple Russian drones.
  • One drone confirmed near Ochakiv.
  • Explosions were reported in Mykolaiv.
  • New Shahed drones were reported to be heading towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district from the Black Sea.
  • One drone was reported to be approaching Odesa from the west, with the potential for anti-drone operations to be heard.
• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian command post near the Toretsk mine.
  • Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Donetsk Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks.
  • Drones were reported to be moving from Donetsk Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading northwest.
  • Operators of the 36th Army of the "East" group are conducting night work to destroy enemy manpower on the South Donetsk direction.
• Sumy Oblast:
  • Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle.
  • Sumy Oblast is under threat of enemy drone attacks.
  • Drones were reported to be moving south, and also from Sumy Oblast towards Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Five drones were reported to be in the Sumy region, moving towards Kharkiv Oblast.
  • A high-speed target was reported in the Shostka area, moving west.
• Poltava Oblast: Three drones were reported north of Poltava, moving west. Two drones were reported flying over Samar, heading northwest. One drone was reported moving from Kharkiv Oblast into Poltava Oblast. Drones were reported in the southern part of Poltava Oblast, moving northwest.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Three drones were reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, moving northwest.
• Other Regions:
  • New drone movements reported in multiple regions, including Kharkiv, Poltava, Odesa, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts.
  • Air raid alerts were issued for multiple regions due to drone threats.
  • One drone was reported to be circling in the north of Kyiv Oblast.
  • Over 10 drones were detected and destroyed in the suburbs of Voronezh and several districts of the region.
  • Air raid alerts have been issued for Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • Drones were reported north and south of Dnipro, moving northwest.
  • Missile strikes and air defense activity were reported in Sumy, Kyiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts.
  • Drones are active in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving northwest.
  • Drones are active in Poltava Oblast, moving west/northwest.

Ground Operations

• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Kurakhove: Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city and are storming the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant, with Ukrainian forces reportedly withdrawing from the plant. This represents a significant advance for Russian forces.
  • Pokrovsk: Heavy artillery battles reported. Russian forces are advancing, and Ukrainian forces are transferring reinforcements. A possible false flag operation by Ukrainian forces is suggested in Krasik (Krasnoarmiisk).
  • Vremivka Direction: Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka. They have also reportedly liberated Uspenovka and Novyi Komar. The situation in Velyka Novosilka remains extremely difficult, with Russian forces having severed the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison.
  • Toretsk: Street fighting continues, with Russian forces advancing behind New York.
• Other Regions:
  • Kursk Region: Russian forces secured a foothold in Cherkaska Konopelka and made progress in the Sudzhansky district.
  • Kharkiv Region: Russian forces cleared Lozova and are advancing in two directions on the Kupyansk front.

Ballistic Missile Threat

• Kyiv: Air raid alerts have been issued for Kyiv due to the threat of ballistic missiles. Residents were urged to seek shelter. Air defense systems were reportedly active. Explosions were heard in the city. There was a reported threat of ballistic missiles from the northeast and from Bryansk and Kursk. The ballistic missile threat has been lifted.
• Shostka: There was a threat of ballistic missiles targeting Shostka. Four strikes were reported in the area. The ballistic missile threat has been lifted.
• Sevastopol: Reports indicate a combined attack on Sevastopol, with a series of powerful explosions from the sea, likely targeting naval drones. Air defense systems have reportedly shot down drones over the city.

Other Developments

• Prisoner Exchange: 211 Ukrainian POWs and civilians were returned, facilitated by the UAE.
• Geopolitical Developments:
  • North Korean leader Kim Jong Un extended New Year's greetings to Putin, calling him the "closest friend and comrade" and expressing solidarity with the Russian people and army. He also wished for 2025 to be a year of victory over neo-Nazis.
  • Poland intends to speed up Ukraine's accession to the EU.
  • The US should stop using cybersecurity issues to slander China, the press secretary of the Chinese Embassy in the United States, Liu Pengyu, told TASS.
  • Die Welt reports that Ukraine is currently extremely weakened militarily and will have to enter into negotiations in 2025, where the only option is territorial concessions.
  • The German government accused Elon Musk of attempting to interfere in the elections. The spokeswoman for the German government, Christiane Hoffmann, spoke about Elon Musk's attempts to interfere in the election campaign in Germany. The reason was the support of the far-right party "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) by the American billionaire. Hoffmann made the conclusion about an attempt to interfere in the upcoming federal elections after the businessman's posts under the hashtag "X" and an article published last weekend in support of this German political force.
  • The South Korean court issued an arrest warrant for the temporarily suspended President of South Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol, on suspicion of mutiny, Yonhap reports.
  • Member of the HRC under the President Kirill Kabanov spoke about the strange awarding of the Order "For Merit to the Fatherland" of the highest I degree. If earlier the honored sons of Russia were called Nobel laureate academician V. Ginzburg, the first woman cosmonaut Valentina Tereshkova, statesmen Mintimer Shaimiev, Dmitry Medvedev, Yevgeny Primakov and Viktor Chernomyrdin, beloved by the people Lyudmila Zykina, Mark Zakharov, Alexandra Pakhmutova, Ilya Glazunov, Oleg Tabakov, Nikita Mikhalkov and many others whose merits to the Fatherland and its people are great and completely obvious, now the situation is changing, Kabanov complains. Thus, the outrage of a member of the presidential council was caused by the expected awarding of the Order "For Merit to the Fatherland" of the highest I degree - the head of the DUM Ravil Gainutdin, who called for replacing Russians with migrants: “If the indigenous population does not want to work, after receiving a salary, they disappear for 15-20 days, and at this time the machines are idle, it is impossible to produce anything with these workers,” he said, actually calling for replacing “inefficient” Russians with “hardworking foreign specialists.” At the same time, it is reported that the award is for strengthening interethnic peace and interreligious harmony, NTV presenter Ruslan Ostashko is outraged, although in fact these and similar statements only incite ethnic hatred.
• Drone Warfare Developments:
  • Reports indicate Ukrainian drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
  • Russia is integrating AI into Shahed drones to enhance their target recognition capabilities, even when offline.
• North Korean Troops: Reports of significant losses and suicides among North Korean troops in the Kursk region.
• Cyber Attacks: The US Treasury Department reported a cyberattack by hackers allegedly linked to China.
• Moldova: The Moldovan thermal power plant in Transnistria will stop supplying electricity to Moldova from January 1, 2025.
• Moscow: A Moscow court sent a nurse and two unemployed women to jail for involvement in child trafficking.

Analysis

The military situation in Ukraine is characterized by intense fighting, with Russian forces making significant gains, particularly in the Donetsk region. The capture of the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant and the ongoing battles in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction indicate a critical phase in the conflict. Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges but continue to resist.

Drone warfare remains a central element, with the attack on Sevastopol highlighting its importance and the vulnerability of key locations. The new reports of drone activity in multiple regions, including near Kyiv and Poltava, and the ongoing drone attack on Odesa indicate a continued and potentially expanding aerial threat, particularly with three drones reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast moving northwest and three more north of Poltava moving west. The air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast also indicate the potential for further escalation. The latest reports indicate that the Russian military continues to utilize drones to target and eliminate Ukrainian manpower, highlighting the strategic importance of unmanned aerial vehicles in modern warfare. The multiple drone sightings in various regions, particularly the movement towards the northwest in Poltava and Zaporizhzhia, suggest a coordinated drone operation possibly targeting multiple locations simultaneously. The new movement of drones in Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts adds to the ongoing aerial threat.

The threat of ballistic missiles, which targeted Kyiv and Shostka, added another dimension to the conflict, indicating a potential escalation in the intensity and nature of attacks. The reported strikes in Shostka and the activation of air defense systems in Kyiv underscored the severity of this threat. The threat of ballistic missiles from Bryansk and Kursk added complexity to the situation. The lifting of the ballistic missile threat is a significant development, though the continued drone activity suggests that the aerial threat remains.

The involvement of North Korean troops, although marked by high casualties and reported suicides, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. Geopolitical developments, such as Kim Jong Un's New Year's greetings to Putin, Poland's support for Ukraine's EU accession, and the US stance on China's cybersecurity activities, reflect the broader international context. The new report from Die Welt about Ukraine's weakened military position and the possibility of negotiations involving territorial concessions in 2025 adds another layer to the geopolitical analysis, suggesting a potential shift in the conflict's trajectory. The accusation from the German government regarding Elon Musk's alleged interference in their elections, coupled with the arrest warrant for the South Korean President, further complicates the international situation, potentially impacting alliances and support for Ukraine.

Strategic Implications

• Russian Momentum: Russian forces are gaining momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region. Their advances could lead to further breakthroughs. The attack on Sevastopol could signal an expansion of the conflict zone. The multiple drone movements across various regions suggest a potential broadening of the aerial campaign. The lifting of the ballistic missile threat is a positive development for Ukraine, but the continued drone activity indicates that the aerial threat persists.
• Ukrainian Defense: Ukrainian forces need to reinforce their defensive lines to prevent further loss of territory. The increasing drone threat necessitates enhanced air defense capabilities. The ongoing drone attack on Odesa and the air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast highlight the urgency of the situation. The new reports of drones in Poltava and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts suggest a need for heightened alert and rapid response capabilities in these areas. The continued movement of drones in Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts requires ongoing vigilance.
• Drone Warfare: Drone warfare will likely continue to be a decisive factor, with both sides investing in and innovating their capabilities. The attack on Sevastopol highlights the vulnerability of key locations. The continued use of drones by Russian forces to target Ukrainian manpower underscores the evolving nature of combat in this conflict. The widespread drone activity and the specific movements reported suggest an increased reliance on drone warfare for reconnaissance, targeting, and potentially, large-scale coordinated attacks.
• International Support: Continued international support remains crucial for Ukraine. The report from Die Welt might influence international opinion and support, potentially impacting the willingness of some countries to continue providing aid. The situation with Elon Musk and the German government could also have implications for international relations and support networks.
• Geopolitical Shifts: The conflict's outcome could significantly impact the geopolitical landscape. The alleged cyberattack on the US Treasury Department and the US's subsequent condemnation of China could further strain US-China relations. The internal political issues in South Korea and the controversy surrounding the awarding of the Russian Order "For Merit to the Fatherland" add further dimensions to the complex geopolitical situation.
• Energy Security: The situation in Moldova highlights the potential for the conflict to impact energy security in the broader region.

Updated Situation

Russian forces continue to press their offensive, achieving significant gains, particularly in the Donetsk region. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal, attempting to consolidate their defenses. Drone warfare remains a critical component, with the attack on Sevastopol and ongoing drone activity in multiple regions indicating a heightened and potentially expanding aerial threat, now also confirmed by multiple drone sightings in Poltava and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts moving towards the northwest. Russian forces are actively using drones to target and eliminate Ukrainian manpower. The air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast suggest the potential for further escalation. The ballistic missile threat, which targeted Kyiv and Shostka, has been lifted, but drone activity continues in Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts. The humanitarian situation is worsening, and international support remains vital for Ukraine, although the report from Die Welt might impact the dynamics of this support. The geopolitical landscape is in flux, with potential shifts in alliances and strategies emerging, further complicated by recent international incidents and internal political issues in various countries. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and significant developments in the coming days and weeks, particularly with the ongoing drone threat.