Strategic Overview of the Military Situation in Ukraine: December 30, 2024, 22:47 UTC

Executive Summary

Russian forces maintain offensive operations, notably in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with significant advances near Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and along the Vremivka direction. They continue to leverage their advantage in drone warfare, including the integration of AI into Shahed drones. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal, particularly towards the Dnipro River, employing counter-drone measures and inflicting losses on Russian troops and equipment. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones extensively. A new development is the reported drone attack on Sevastopol, with Russian air defenses reportedly shooting down two drones and one naval drone over the Black Sea. The attack was later confirmed to have been repelled.

Key Developments

Drone Warfare

Extensive Use: Both sides continue employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
Russian AI Integration: Confirmed reports indicate Russia is integrating AI into Shahed drones to enhance target recognition, even when offline.
Ukrainian Innovations: Ukrainian forces are using shotgun-mounted drones to counter enemy drones.
FPV Drones: Extensively used by both sides, FPV drones continue to shape tactical engagements.
Voronezh Region: Over 10 drones were detected and destroyed in the suburbs of Voronezh and several districts of the region.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Ukrainian air defenses shot down 7 drones.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Under threat of enemy drone attacks, with air raid alerts issued. Several Shahed drones were detected moving from the Black Sea towards Chornomorske and Pivdenne. Up to 10 drones were reported over Ochakiv, with some shot down. A drone was reported in the southern part of the region, moving north. A moped was observed near Luparevo, heading towards Stara Bohdanivka.
Odesa Oblast: Threatened by drone attacks, with drones approaching from the Black Sea. New Shahed drones were reported to be heading towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district from the Black Sea.
Ukrainian Drone Capabilities: Reports indicate Ukrainian drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
Ukrainian Drone Supply: A 19-fold increase in drone supply to Ukrainian units in 2024 compared to the previous year.
"ACHILLES" Drone Unit: Expanded to a battalion, reportedly hitting over 2000 targets per month.
Russian "Upyr" and "Tatsinsky Raider" Drones: Used to target Ukrainian equipment and personnel.
Baba Yaga Drone: Marines eliminated a Baba Yaga-type heavy drone in the Kakhovka direction.
Zala UAV: Shot down by the Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine.
Kharkiv Direction: Russian FPV group "Sever" hit three Ukrainian dugouts.
Novoelizavetivka: Ukrainian forces targeted and destroyed Russian equipment and personnel.
Pokrovsk Direction: Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions. FPV drones of the "Center" group continue to hunt for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Bakhmut Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled a major assault near Klishchiivka.
Toretsk Mine: Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian command post.
Geran Drones: Approximately 100 Geran drones used to deplete Ukrainian air defenses overnight.
Sumy Oblast: Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle.
Lgov Sugar Factory: Alleged Ukrainian drone strike on a command post of the 810th Marine Brigade.
Kupyansk Area: Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone and an armored vehicle.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ukrainian drones destroyed an enemy communication tower and a supply depot.
Kurakhove Direction: Attack FPV drone teams eliminated a stronghold and a mortar position.
Zoria, Donetsk Oblast: Ukrainian drone "Vampir" remotely mined Russian logistics routes.
Kursk Region: Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
Nikopol: Russian drone strike on the central market caused damage and injured 8 civilians.
Orlov Region: Ukrainian forces struck a fortified military facility, destroying a storage, maintenance, and repair facility for "Shahed" drones.
New Updates: Drone movements reported in multiple regions, including Kharkiv, Poltava, Odesa, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. A drone was reported to be circling in the north of Kyiv Oblast. New Shahed drones were reported to be heading towards Odesa Oblast, specifically towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district from the Black Sea.
Air Force Updates: Reports on the movement of drones in various regions, including new groups entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk.
Explosions: Within an hour, explosions were heard in the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, in the suburbs of Kharkiv and Cherkasy.
Ovidiopol: 1 new drone from the Black Sea is heading towards Ovidiopol.
Air Raid Alerts: Issued for multiple regions due to drone threats.
Sevastopol: Under attack by drones, with Russian air defenses reportedly shooting down two drones and one naval drone over the Black Sea. The attack was later confirmed to have been repelled. Explosions were heard in the city.

Ground Operations

Donetsk Oblast

Horlivka: Two civilians injured due to a Ukrainian attack.
Dzerzhinsk Area: Fighting continues, with Russian forces advancing.
Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control center.
Kurakhove Direction: Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold and a mortar position.
Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk): Russian forces evacuated civilians.
Disruptions: Russian electronic warfare systems disrupted nearly 140 Ukrainian air attacks in the past week.
Surrender: Seven members of the 101st Brigade surrendered near Dzerzhinsk.
Southern Donetsk: Intense fighting continues.
Pokrovsk: Heavy artillery battles reported.
Myrnohrad: Fighting escalating.
Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk): Ukrainian forces are transferring reinforcements, including troops from the 155th Brigade trained by France.
Kurakhove:
- Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city.
- Ukrainian withdrawal reported.
- Konstantinopolskoe (Ostrovskoe), Zelenovka, and Gigant liberated.
- Advancing on Yantarnoye.
- Bridge over the Volchya River destroyed.
- Clashes near multiple settlements.
- Airstrikes reported.
- Guided air bombs against Konstantinovka and Chasov Yar.
- Intense battles near several settlements.
- Drone and sniper activity.
- Advance towards Shevchenko.
- Loss of positions reported by Ukrainian forces.
- Video evidence of drone strikes and military engagements.
- Sontsovka renamed Krasnoye.
- Russian forces advancing up to 3km west of the Kurakhovskoe reservoir towards Shevchenko.
- Russian forces storming Novooleenovka.
- Russian assault units advanced up to 1.5 km west of the city.
- Russian DRGs are operating in Pokrovsk.
- Heavy fighting continues.
- "Otvazhnye" forces initiating assaults on Solone, Novovasylivka, and Novoelizavetivka.
- Fierce battles near Peschanoe and Volchye.
- Heavy fighting in Lysovka.
- Ukrainian forces attempting to prevent Russian advances near several settlements.
- Russian forces advancing, taking control of several streets.
- Russian forces liberated an additional 5 sq km.
- Russian forces targeting a Ukrainian YPR-765 armored personnel carrier.
- Russian forces storming the territory of the Kurakhovskaya TPP.
- Russian forces have taken control of the Kurakhove Thermal Power Plant.
- Possible false flag operation by Ukrainian forces suggested in Krasik (Krasnoarmiisk).
- Russian forces storming the thermal power plant and advancing in multiple directions.

Vremivka Direction

Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka.
Russian forces liberated Uspenovka and Novyi Komar.
Ukrainian forces reportedly encircled in Makarivka, though this is officially denied.
Clashes ongoing near multiple settlements.
Russian forces advancing towards Velyka Novosilka.
Bridge over the Mokri Yaly river destroyed.
Russian forces reportedly liberated Makarivka and gained control of the road between Huliaipole and Velyka Novosilka.
Russian forces reportedly already at the Huliaipole-Velyka Novoselka road west of Vremivka and Neskuchne.
Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the liberation of Storozheve.
Rogov reported the beginning of battles for the liberation of Neskuchne.
Russian forces reportedly attacking Velyka Novosilka from both sides.
Russian forces processing the approaches to Neskuchne.
Occupation authorities in Huliaipole concerned about the situation.
Fighting continues in Novyi Komar.
Liberation of Uspenovka completed.
Situation in Velyka Novosilka remains extremely difficult.
Russian forces have severed the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison in Velyka Novosilka.

Toretsk

Street fighting continues.
Russian forces captured two objects on the outskirts of the "Central" mine spoil heap.
Clashes ongoing near multiple settlements.
Russian forces advancing behind New York.
Ukrainian command post destroyed near the Toretsk mine.
Street fighting divides the city.
Video shows a raid on a high-rise building in Toretsk by the "Athena" group.

Chasiv Yar

Russian forces control over half the city.

Other Developments

Prisoner Exchange: 211 Ukrainian POWs and civilians returned, facilitated by the UAE. An image was shared showing a child holding a sign expressing the wish for her father, a member of the 36th Marine Brigade, to be exchanged. 22 Ukrainian defenders, who served in brigades of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, have been returned home.
Geopolitical Developments:
- Slovak Minister of Defense suggests Ukraine might have to cede territory to Russia.
- Ukrainian delegation visited Damascus, aiming to restore diplomatic relations with Syria.
- Poland intends to speed up Ukraine's accession to the EU.
- North Korean leader Kim Jong Un extended New Year's greetings to Putin, calling him the "closest friend and comrade" and expressing solidarity with the Russian people and army.
Drone Warfare Developments:
- Russia integrating AI into Shahed drones.
- Ukrainian forces innovating with shotgun-mounted drones.
- Extensive use of FPV drones by both sides.
North Korean Troops: Reports of significant losses and suicides among North Korean troops in the Kursk region.
Air Raid Alerts: Lifted across Ukraine at 01:30 UTC, but new explosions reported in Sumy.
Kursk Region: Russian forces secured a foothold in Cherkaska Konopelka and made progress in the Sudzhansky district.
Belgorod Oblast: Several villages in the Grayvoron district were left without electricity after a Ukrainian drone attack.
Lgov: In the Kursk region, an apartment building was damaged, and gas supplies were temporarily disrupted due to shelling.
Fundraising: A fundraising campaign for Russian paratroopers is ongoing.
Cyber Attacks: The US Treasury Department reported a cyberattack by hackers allegedly linked to China, according to the NYT. This is not the first such claim by the US recently.
Moldova: The Moldovan thermal power plant in Transnistria will stop supplying electricity to Moldova from January 1, 2025, as the contract was not extended due to uncertainty about gas availability.

Analysis

The military situation in Ukraine is characterized by intense fighting and significant Russian advances, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces are effectively leveraging their superiority in drone warfare, including the integration of AI into Shahed drones. The reported drone attack on Sevastopol marks a significant development, indicating a potential escalation in the conflict and highlighting the vulnerability of key locations to drone attacks. Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges but continue to resist, employing innovative counter-drone measures and inflicting losses on Russian troops and equipment.

The capture of strategic locations like the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant and the ongoing battles in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction indicate a critical phase in the conflict. The potential encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Vremivka and the advances towards Velyka Novosilka highlight the precarious situation for Ukrainian forces in the south.

Drone warfare remains a central element of the conflict, with both sides demonstrating advanced capabilities. The extensive use of FPV drones and the reported integration of AI into Russian drones underscore the evolving nature of this aspect of warfare. The new reports of drone activity in Mykolaiv Oblast and near Kyiv, along with the attack on Sevastopol, suggest a continued and potentially expanding aerial threat.

The involvement of North Korean troops, although marked by high casualties and reported suicides, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict.

The humanitarian situation remains dire, with civilian casualties and infrastructure damage reported across multiple regions. The prisoner exchange, facilitated by the UAE, provides a glimmer of hope amidst the ongoing hostilities.

Geopolitical developments, such as the Slovak Minister's statement, Ukraine's diplomatic outreach to Syria, and Poland's support for Ukraine's EU accession, reflect the broader international context and the potential for shifting alliances and strategies. The reported cyberattack on the US Treasury Department, allegedly by China-linked hackers, adds another dimension to the global implications of the conflict. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's New Year's greetings to Putin further highlight the international dimension of the conflict.

The decision by the Moldovan thermal power plant in Transnistria to stop supplying electricity to Moldova from January 1, 2025, could have significant implications for Moldova's energy security and may further complicate the geopolitical situation in the region.

Strategic Implications

Russian Momentum: Russian forces are gaining momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region. Their advances in Kurakhove and Pokrovsk could lead to further breakthroughs. The attack on Sevastopol could signal an expansion of the conflict zone.
Ukrainian Defense: Ukrainian forces need to reinforce their defensive lines, particularly in the Vremivka direction, to prevent further encirclement and loss of territory. The increasing drone threat necessitates enhanced air defense capabilities.
Drone Warfare: Both sides will likely continue to invest in and innovate drone warfare capabilities, making it a decisive factor in the conflict. The attack on Sevastopol highlights the vulnerability of key locations to drone attacks.
International Support: Continued international support, particularly in the form of advanced weaponry and financial aid, remains crucial for Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense.
Humanitarian Crisis: The ongoing fighting will likely exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, requiring increased international aid and support for displaced populations.
Geopolitical Shifts: The conflict's outcome could significantly impact the geopolitical landscape, potentially leading to realignments and shifts in global power dynamics. The alleged cyberattack on the US Treasury Department could further strain US-China relations.
Energy Security: The situation in Moldova highlights the potential for the conflict to impact energy security in the broader region.

Updated Situation

Russian forces continue to press their offensive in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, achieving significant gains. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal, attempting to consolidate their defenses and inflict losses on the advancing enemy. Drone warfare remains a critical component of the conflict, with both sides demonstrating advanced capabilities. The new report of a drone attack on Sevastopol and ongoing drone activity in multiple regions, including near Kyiv and new reports of drones heading towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district of Odesa Oblast, indicates a heightened and potentially expanding aerial threat. The humanitarian situation is worsening, and international support remains vital for Ukraine. The geopolitical landscape is in flux, with potential shifts in alliances and strategies emerging. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and significant developments in the coming days and weeks. The alleged false flag operation by Ukrainian forces in Krasik (Krasnoarmiisk) suggests a possible escalation in the conflict. The reported withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Kurakhovskaya TPP indicates a significant loss for Ukraine. The continued fighting in Kurakhovo and the surrounding areas suggests that the battle for the city is far from over. The reported use of drones by both sides highlights the importance of this technology in the conflict. The reported involvement of North Korean troops adds another dimension to the conflict. The diplomatic efforts by Ukraine, including the visit to Damascus, suggest that Ukraine is seeking to broaden its international support. The reported increase in drone activity across multiple regions indicates that the threat of air attacks remains high. The new report of 211 additional Ukrainian soldiers being returned home is a morale booster for Ukraine. Poland's intent to speed up Ukraine's accession to the EU is a positive sign for Ukraine on the diplomatic front. The alleged cyberattack on the US Treasury Department and the situation in Moldova add further layers of complexity to the broader geopolitical context. The latest update regarding the drone attack on Sevastopol indicates that the attack was repelled, with Russian air defenses successfully destroying two drones and one naval drone. This further highlights the importance of drone warfare in the conflict and the vulnerability of key locations to such attacks.

Situation Report