Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - December 30, 2024, 15:47 UTC

Strategic Overview

Russian forces maintain offensive operations, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. They are making notable advances around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and along the Vremivka direction. Russian forces are leveraging their advantage in drone warfare and have taken control of the railway station in Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal towards the Dnipro River in some areas. They are employing counter-drone measures and inflicting losses on Russian troops and equipment.

A significant prisoner exchange occurred, with 189 Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilians returned home. The exchange was confirmed by Ukrainian President Zelensky and involved defenders of Azovstal, Mariupol, Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, Zmiinyi Island, and those fighting on multiple fronts. The exchange was facilitated by the United Arab Emirates. The released Russian soldiers are currently in Belarus receiving medical and psychological assistance. Russian sources report 150 soldiers were returned in the exchange.

Key Developments in the Last 30 Minutes

Sudzha-Makhnovka Area: Russian forces are reportedly making significant advances in the Sudzha area, advancing up to 3 km towards the town from the south. Fighting is reported in Makhnovka. Ukrainian forces are reported to be attacking Russian positions in the area.
Kursk Region: An air alert has been issued for the region, with reports of multiple drones.
Sumy Region: Two Russian aircraft are reported in the area, with the threat of cruise missile launches.
Prisoner Exchange: Ukrainian sources report 189 POWs and civilians returned, while Russian sources report 150.
New Aid Package: The US announced a final aid package for Ukraine from the Biden administration, totaling $15 billion in credit secured by frozen Russian assets. An additional $2.5 billion was also provided, with the US stating they are in the process of transferring "hundreds of thousands of artillery shells and rockets" to Ukraine. Future aid packages will need to be negotiated with the potential Trump administration.
Documentary Trailer: A trailer for a documentary about the celebration of the New Year in the special military operation zone was released, featuring soldiers from an infantry battalion.
Naval Drone Destroyed: Russian forces reportedly destroyed another Ukrainian naval drone near the western coast of Crimea, in the area of Cape Tarkhankut. The report raises questions about the production and deployment of similar drones by Russian forces.
FPV Drone Strike: Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Baltic Group" of the 59th Motorized Brigade, used an FPV drone to strike a Russian soldier hiding behind a pole on the Pokrovsk direction.
Alleged Abuse in 211th Brigade: A Ukrainian source claims that the commander of the 211th Brigade may have ignored reports of abuse of soldiers. The prosecution reports that the commander had been receiving such reports since February 2024. The commander has been taken into custody with the possibility of posting bail for 12 million UAH.
Gas Transportation Tariffs: The head of the Union of Consumers of Utility Services stated that starting January 1, tariffs for gas transportation may increase fourfold for domestic consumers in Ukraine due to the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine.
Kherson Explosions: Explosions were reported in Kyiv-controlled Kherson.

Ongoing Key Developments

Donetsk Oblast

Kurakhove: Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city. Intense fighting continues, with Russian forces making significant advances, including in the western part of the city near the Kurakhove thermal power plant. Ukrainian forces no longer control the territory of the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant.
Pokrovsk: Heavy fighting is reported, with Ukrainian forces transferring reinforcements to Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). Russian forces are making incremental gains in the surrounding areas.
Vremivka Direction: Russian forces have captured Storozheve and are advancing towards Velyka Novosilka, creating a new "pocket". Ukrainian forces are reportedly encircled in Makarivka.
Chasiv Yar: Fighting continues, with Russian forces controlling over half the city and having now taken control of the railway station. The loss of the railway station is a significant blow to Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are also reportedly advancing along Chernyshevsky Street. Ukrainian forces conducted two counterattacks but were unsuccessful.
Other: Russian forces have taken control of Novoolenivka.

Kharkiv Oblast

Russian forces have liberated Lozovaya.
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault in the Kupyansk direction.
Increased drone activity is reported.

Kursk Region

Russian forces are pressing Ukrainian forces on all fronts.
Russian airborne troops have taken control of Cherkaska Konopelka.
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone operation targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
Russian Ministry of Defense reports repelling a Ukrainian attempt to invade Russian territory.
A North Korean soldier reportedly shot three Russian soldiers during a retreat.

Drone Warfare

Extensive use of drones by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
Reports of AI integration into Russian Shahed drones.
Ukrainian forces report a 19-fold increase in drone supplies in 2024.
Latvia plans to transfer 1000 drones to Ukraine by the end of 2024.
Russian forces report needing more Mavic drones.
A Ukrainian drone attacked a hospital in Aleshki (Kherson Oblast), resulting in casualties.
Operators of drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army detected and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army detected and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a forest plantation, ensuring the security of Russian positions from enemy drone strikes.
Operators of drones from the 110th Brigade, operating in the Kurakhove direction, spotted moving Ukrainian soldiers and dropped a munition, killing one.

Other Regions

Sumy Region: Ukrainian forces report a successful ambush on Russian forces.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian communication tower and a supply depot.
Crimea, Rostov Oblast, Krasnodar Krai, and Voronezh Oblast: Air raid alerts due to the threat of Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

International Support

Continued US military aid, with a new announcement of $15 billion secured by future income from frozen Russian assets.
The Pentagon is transferring hundreds of thousands of artillery shells and rockets to Ukraine.
Divisions within the EU may arise due to Slovakia's stance on the conflict.
Poland plans to build a road to the border with Russia's Kaliningrad region for rapid troop deployment.

Information Warfare

Both sides are actively engaged in information warfare, with propaganda and disinformation campaigns.
Reports of Russian attempts to recruit individuals for sabotage through Telegram channels.

New Developments Since Earlier Reports

The Pentagon is reportedly "in the process of transferring" hundreds of thousands of artillery shells and rockets to Ukraine.
The US also announced it would provide Ukraine with $15 billion, secured by future income from frozen Russian assets.
Fighting continues in Belogorovka, with Ukrainian forces reportedly destroying a temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and two Ukrainian servicemen.
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack in the Kremenskie forests.
Ukrainian forces destroyed a temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with its contents, including two Ukrainian servicemen.
Russian forces report repelling a Ukrainian attack near Kamenskoe and destroying a temporary deployment point with its contents, including two Ukrainian servicemen.
Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces are shelling the area of Kupyansk with artillery and mortars, as well as using drones.
Reports of four Ukrainian soldiers being executed by Russian forces after surrendering are under investigation as a potential war crime.
A Ukrainian drone "Vampir" of the "Hydra" unit of the 137th Separate Marine Battalion remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria, Donetsk Oblast.
Explosions were reported in Kyiv-controlled Kherson.
Video evidence suggests a Russian soldier was targeted and killed by Ukrainian forces using a thermal-scoped weapon, likely a drone-dropped munition, during a nighttime operation. The location and involved units are not specified.
Video shows liberation of Elizavetovka, advancing towards Kurakhovo.
An interview with a resident of Selidovo (Donetsk region) was shared, detailing alleged atrocities committed by Ukrainian forces, including shelling of civilian areas, looting, and disappearances of civilians. The interviewee claims that Ukrainian forces treated locals as "separatists" and "not people," and that they engaged in widespread looting and violence. This interview is likely part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonize Ukrainian forces and justify the ongoing conflict.
Ussuri paratroopers reportedly captured a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier and brought it back to the rear. The vehicle was captured almost undamaged. Despite being marked with a red cross, indicating it was used for medical purposes, it was reportedly used to transport infantry to the front line and rotate enemy personnel.
Video shows a wounded Ukrainian soldier, nicknamed "Malyi" from the 47th Brigade "Magura," being supplied with a package containing a Ukrainian flag, warm water, warmers, and pills by Ukrainian pilots. The soldier was wounded after an enemy attack and was found by drone pilots from the 47th Brigade's Unmanned Systems Battalion. They requested a Bradley from the 3rd Mechanized Battalion for evacuation. The operation resulted in the death of the crew commander due to five enemy FPV attacks. The video highlights the importance of each life for Ukrainian forces.
The head of the Syrian administration, Ahmed al-Sharaa, stated that the new Syrian authorities do not want Russia to leave their country. He emphasized Russia's importance as the second most powerful state in the world and Syria's strategic interests with Russia. He also mentioned that all Syrian weapons have Russian origins and many power plants are operated by Russian experts.
Israel's El Al airline has canceled all flights to Moscow until March 2025.
Adviser to the President of Ukraine, Dmytro Lytvyn, stated that the visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Andrii Sybiha, to Syria is taking place on the instructions of President Volodymyr Zelensky.
President Zelensky is expecting a report on the visit and negotiations from Sybiha.
A resident of Zaporizhzhia, a retired lieutenant colonel of the militia, was sentenced to 15 years in prison for treason.
The convicted man renewed old ties with a former classmate who is now an employee of the Russian Ministry of Defense and offered his help in the war against Ukraine.
In September 2023, the convicted man received instructions from his curator to establish the location of Ukrainian defenders in the region and began collecting intelligence.
The man drove around Zaporizhzhia and the suburbs to establish the locations of air defense positions, personnel, and equipment of the Defense Forces.
He also informed the enemy about the location of production facilities of local defense industry enterprises.
The convicted man transmitted the collected information to the enemy via messenger.
The man will remain in custody until the verdict comes into force.
The investigation was carried out by the SBU.
Another missile of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was shot down in the border area of the Kursk region.
Poland announced plans to build a road to the border with Russia's Kaliningrad region in 2025 for the rapid deployment of troops and security forces if necessary.
Russian forces have broken through to the railway station in the western part of Chasiv Yar and secured it. According to reports, assault groups have also established a foothold in the northern microdistrict opposite the railway station.
Russian forces advanced near Terny, Vozdvyzhenka, Novoukrainka, Uspenivka, Dalne, Sontsivka, Novoelizavetivka, Vovkove, Kurakhove, and Shevchenko. The area north of Novoelizavetivka was clarified.
The US will provide Ukraine with an additional $2.5 billion in military aid, including a $1.25 billion package for the Ukrainian military and a $1.22 billion package under the USAI initiative.
Russian forces report that assault groups have secured positions in the northern microdistrict of Chasiv Yar, opposite the railway station. They also report advances in Toretsk.
The Ukrainian police named a Russian military officer, Artem Tareev, who allegedly ordered his troops to shoot at civilians in Bucha in March 2022.
Russian forces report that assault groups have secured positions in the northern microdistrict of Chasiv Yar, opposite the railway station. They also report advances in Toretsk.
A Ukrainian drone attack targeted a hospital in Aleshki (Kherson Oblast), resulting in casualties. The head physician sustained severe shrapnel wounds, while his deputy was killed on the spot. This attack is characterized as an act of terrorism.
The US has committed to providing an additional $3.4 billion in budgetary aid to Ukraine, as stated by US Treasury Secretary Yellen.
Elon Musk referred to Zelensky as the "champion of all time" for allegedly carrying out "one of the greatest heists" of the US, in response to a post about the $2.5 billion allocation to Ukraine.
The outgoing Biden administration plans to allocate another $2.5 billion for the war in Ukraine and promises further aid before leaving office. This is interpreted as a sign of an impending intensification of hostilities.
In December, Ukrainian forces, specifically the "predators" unit, reportedly eliminated more than a company of Russian troops in the Donetsk direction. Over 160 individuals were reportedly killed, including two dozen in the past day alone.
A North Korean soldier allegedly shot three Russian soldiers in the Kursk region during a retreat. The incident is attributed to communication difficulties and the use of Russian troops as a blocking force behind North Korean units. The North Korean soldier is reportedly in custody, but punishment options are limited.
The head of the Union of Consumers of Utility Services, Popenko, stated that starting January 1, tariffs for gas transportation may increase fourfold for domestic consumers in Ukraine due to the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine.
President Zelensky signed Law 4170-IX, which eliminates the Medical and Social Expert Commissions (MSECs). Starting January 1, 2025, expert commissions in cluster and supercluster hospitals will operate instead of MSECs. Previously established disability statuses and medical and social expertise for children will remain unchanged.
Poland plans to build a road to the border with Russia's Kaliningrad region in 2025 for rapid troop deployment. The Polish Ministry of the Interior stated that this will bring Poland closer to 100% border security and allow for a quick response to violations. The construction of a wall on the border with Belarus will be completed by the end of next summer.
A video shows Ukrainian forces showcasing captured Russian equipment, including a Hermeus drone downed in a tree. The drone was recovered using a saw and a detonator. The video also shows Ukrainian soldiers dancing near a Russian base in Syria, with a portrait of Putin visible in the background. The base is reportedly mostly abandoned, but some Russian troops remain. A new checkpoint has been established at the entrance, controlled by former rebels.
Illegal migrants in Russia must leave the country by April 30, 2025, or regularize their legal status, according to a presidential decree.
An armed individual broke into Anastasia Ivleeva's house in the Moscow region. The intruder, who had a history of mental health issues and substance abuse, was found by police in a closet with two bats and a kitchen knife. Ivleeva has not lived in the house for at least three months, and it is currently for sale.
The Slovak Foreign Ministry rejected Zelensky's claims that Putin instructed Fico to open a "second energy front" against Ukraine, calling them "nonsense." They also criticized Zelensky's proposal to "buy" Slovakia's NATO membership with Russian assets and his threat to Slovakia with the European Community.
Russian air defense systems are active in the Belgorod area, with reports of a missile being shot down.
Ukrainian forces attacked a hospital in Aleshki, Kherson Oblast, with a drone, resulting in the death of the deputy head physician and severe injuries to the head physician.
Russian air defense systems are actively engaging aerial targets near Belgorod. Reports of a missile being shot down.
Enemy aviation is reportedly active over Belgorod.
The US has committed to providing an additional $3.4 billion in budgetary aid to Ukraine.
Elon Musk called Zelensky the "champion of all time" for orchestrating "one of the greatest heists" of the US, referring to the allocation of $2.5 billion to Ukraine.
More than a company of Russian troops were eliminated by Ukrainian "predators" in the Donetsk direction in December. In December, over 160 individuals were transferred to the category of "good Russians". Two dozen of them were killed in the past day alone.
President Zelensky signed Law 4170-IX, which eliminates the Medical and Social Expert Commissions (MSECs). From January 1, 2025, expert commissions in cluster and supercluster hospitals will operate instead of MSECs. Previously established disability statuses and medical and social expertise for children will remain unchanged.
A significant prisoner exchange occurred, with 150 prisoners exchanged on each side.
Russian sources report that the released Russian soldiers are currently in Belarus receiving medical and psychological assistance.
The exchange was reportedly facilitated by the United Arab Emirates.
Ukrainian sources report that the commander of the 211th Brigade may have ignored reports of abuse of soldiers.
A video was shared by a Ukrainian source allegedly showing a captured Russian soldier from the 83rd Airborne Assault Brigade, who claims he joined the military to earn money after his house burned down.
Pro-Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces attacked a hospital in the Kherson region with a drone, resulting in casualties.
Russian air defense systems reportedly shot down a Ukrainian missile over the Kursk region.
Operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army detected and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a forest plantation, ensuring the security of Russian positions from enemy drone strikes.
Video shows a drone observation of Russian forces ambushing and engaging enemy personnel in a wooded area.
Russian forces are reportedly advancing up to 3km west of the Kurakhovskoe reservoir towards Shevchenko.

Assessment

The situation on the ground continues to be highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. The capture of the railway station in Chasiv Yar and advances in Novoolenivka represent significant setbacks for Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region. The increased fighting in the Kursk region, including reports of North Korean troops, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The continued reliance on drone warfare by both sides highlights the evolving nature of the battlefield, with the attack on the hospital in Aleshki marking a significant escalation and a potential war crime. The reported infighting between Russian and North Korean troops, if confirmed, could indicate significant morale and command-and-control issues within the Russian-led forces. The international support for Ukraine remains strong, with the US providing additional military aid, but divisions within the EU may be emerging. The information warfare dimension of the conflict continues to be significant, with both sides actively shaping the narrative through propaganda and disinformation. The prisoner exchange is a notable development, with 189 Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilians being returned. The involvement of Belarus in hosting the released Russian soldiers could further complicate the situation. Reports of Russian advances in the Sudzha area, if confirmed, could indicate a new offensive push by Russian forces in the Kursk region, potentially aimed at diverting Ukrainian forces from other fronts.

Situation Report