Major Updates on the Military Situation in Ukraine: December 30, 2024, 13:17 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with Russian forces continuing their offensive operations, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. They are making significant advances around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and along the Vremivka direction, leveraging their advantage in drone warfare. Russian forces have reportedly taken control of the railway station in Chasiv Yar, further weakening the Ukrainian position in the city. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal towards the Dnipro River in some areas, while employing counter-drone measures and inflicting losses on Russian troops and equipment. Russian forces are making advances in Terny, Zahryzove, and Novoolenivka. Slovak Minister of Defense, Robert Kaliňák, suggested Ukraine might have to cede territory to Russia, reflecting a potential shift in perspective among some European allies.

Key Developments in the Last 6 Hours

Russian forces have reportedly taken control of Novoolenivka, Donetsk People's Republic.
Fighting continues in Belogorovka, with Ukrainian forces reportedly destroying a temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and two Ukrainian servicemen.
Russian forces report destroying another German Leopard 1A5 tank near Shevchenko, south of Krasnoarmeysk.
Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at multiple locations in the Donetsk region, including Serhiyivka, Terny, Ivanivka, Fedorivka, Riznykivka, Vyyimka, Serebryanka, Vasukivka, Pazeno, Romanivka, and Velyka Novosilka.
Russian forces are storming Zahryzove, pushing through defenses near Lozova and Zelenyi Hai, and moving towards Borova.
On the Liman axis, 26 attacks were reported towards Grekivka, Novoegorivka, Zeleny Gay, Nova Kruglyakivka, Tverdokhlibovo, Nadiya, Novosergiyivka, Terniv, Shyikivka, Sergiyivka, and Makiyivka.
Ka-52M helicopters reportedly disrupted a rotation of Ukrainian units in the border area of the Kursk Region.
The "Sever" group of forces is engaged in fierce battles along the entire front line of the Kursk Region.
Russian forces advanced to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
The Russian Army is conducting a powerful offensive on the Kursk front, storming Kruglenkoye, advancing towards Sudzha, Martynovka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
Russian forces destroyed a concentration of Ukrainian military equipment with the use of a "Malka" artillery system.
Calculations of the MLRS "Grad" group of troops "North" destroyed strongholds and infantry of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region.
Russian forces reportedly liberated Pogrebki, Russkoye Porechnoye, and Kamyshovka.
Russian forces made advances in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka, advancing up to 1200 meters near Nikolaevo-Daryino, Leonidovo, Russkaya Porechnaya, and Kurilovka.
South of Kruhlenky, Russian forces advanced towards Viktorivka, clearing a forest belt and gaining 1.6 km. They are also advancing towards Leonidove.
The 57th Motorized Rifle Regiment reportedly liberated Elizavetovka.
Russian forces report destroying another German Leopard 1A5 tank near Shevchenko, south of Krasnoarmeysk.
The commander of the battalion "Cedar" of the 80th Tank Regiment reported on the capture of Novoalyonovka in the Donetsk People's Republic.
Russian forces have reportedly taken control of Novoolenivka, Donetsk People's Republic.
Russian forces claim they repelled a Ukrainian attack near Kamenskoe and destroyed a temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with its contents, including two Ukrainian servicemen.
Footage from the 13th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine "Hartiya" shows drone operations targeting enemy infantry, mortar nests, and shelters of UAV operators.
Russian forces report destroying another German Leopard 1A5 tank near Shevchenko, south of Krasnoarmeysk.
Ukrainian forces report that the 37th Separate Marine Brigade repelled a "meat assault" by Russian forces in the Kurakhove direction.
Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at multiple locations in the Donetsk region, including Serhiyivka, Terny, Ivanivka, Fedorivka, Riznykivka, Vyyimka, Serebryanka, Vasukivka, Pazeno, Romanivka, and Velyka Novosilka.
425 ОШБ "Скала" conducted drone strike operation in Shevchenko.
On December 25th, Russian sources claimed further advances towards Dimitrov and the liberation of Veselyi Gai.
Russian electronic warfare systems in the DPR have reportedly disrupted nearly 140 Ukrainian air attacks in the past week.
Russian forces are storming Zahryzove, pushing through defenses near Lozova and Zelenyi Hai, and moving towards Borova.
An attack by a Russian infantry unit was reported in Terny.
Russian forces advanced in the central part of Terny.
On the Liman axis, 26 attacks were reported towards Grekivka, Novoegorivka, Zeleny Gay, Nova Kruglyakivka, Tverdokhlibovo, Nadiya, Novosergiyivka, Terniv, Shyikivka, Sergiyivka, and Makiyivka.
A Ukrainian drone "Vampir" of the "Hydra" unit of the 137th Separate Marine Battalion remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria, Donetsk Oblast.
Ka-52M helicopters reportedly disrupted a rotation of Ukrainian units in the border area of the Kursk Region.
The "Sever" group of forces is engaged in fierce battles along the entire front line of the Kursk Region.
Russian forces are clearing Russkoye Porechnoye.
Russian forces advanced to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
The Russian Army is conducting a powerful offensive on the Kursk front, storming Kruglenkoye, advancing towards Sudzha, Martynovka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
Russian forces destroyed a concentration of Ukrainian military equipment with the use of a "Malka" artillery system.
Calculations of the MLRS "Grad" group of troops "North" destroyed strongholds and infantry of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region.
Russian forces reportedly liberated Pogrebki, Russkoye Porechnoye, and Kamyshovka.
Russian forces made advances in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka, advancing up to 1200 meters near Nikolaevo-Daryino, Leonidovo, Russkaya Porechnaya, and Kurilovka.
South of Kruhlenky, Russian forces advanced towards Viktorivka, clearing a forest belt and gaining 1.6 km. They are also advancing towards Leonidove.
The 57th Motorized Rifle Regiment reportedly liberated Elizavetovka.
Footage from the 13th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine "Hartiya" shows drone operations targeting enemy infantry, mortar nests, and shelters of UAV operators.
A soldier with the callsign "Khuligan" from the Russian 68th Army Corps' "Kaira" UAV unit reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian armored vehicle using an FPV drone.
Units of the "Center" group installed a flag in the liberated Novoolenivka.
The commander of the battalion "Cedar" of the 80th Tank Regiment reported on the capture of Novoalyonovka in the Donetsk People's Republic.
Russian forces have repelled a Ukrainian attempt to invade Russian territory in the Kursk region. In the course of offensive operations, units of the Sever Group of Forces inflicted losses on formations of one heavy mechanized brigade, five mechanized brigades, three air assault brigades, one marine brigade, two territorial defense brigades, and one assault battalion of the AFU near Daryino, Kurilovka, Leonidovo, Loknya, Maryevka, Makhnovka, Nizhny Klin, Nikolayevo-Daryino, Novaya Sorochina, Cherkasskaya Konopelka, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Five counter-attacks launched by AFU assault detachments were repelled. Operational-Tactical and Army aviation and artillery inflicted losses on AFU manpower and hardware near Aleksandriya, Viktorovka, Guyevo, Kazachaya Loknya, Kruglenkoye, Lebedevka, Nikolsky, Rubanshchina, Russkoye Porechnoye, Sverdlikovo as well as Basovka, Belovody, and Zhuravka in Sumy region. Over the past 24 hours, the AFU losses amounted to more than 310 troops, one infantry fighting vehicle, ten armored fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, and one artillery gun. Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 45,530 troops, 262 tanks, 204 infantry fighting vehicles, 142 armored personnel carriers, 1,359 armored fighting vehicles, 1,237 motor vehicles, 337 artillery guns, 42 MLRS launchers, including 11 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 13 anti-aircraft missile launchers, seven transport-loading vehicles, 83 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defense radars, 28 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, seven armored recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle. The operation to neutralize the AFU units is in progress.
Russian forces have broken through to the railway station in the western part of Chasiv Yar and secured it. According to reports, assault groups have also established a foothold in the northern microdistrict opposite the railway station.
Russian forces advanced near Terny, Vozdvyzhenka, Novoukrainka, Uspenivka, Dalne, Sontsivka, Novoelizavetivka, Vovkove, Kurakhove, and Shevchenko. The area north of Novoelizavetivka was clarified.

Ongoing Key Developments

Donetsk Oblast

Kurakhove: Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city. Intense fighting continues, with Russian forces making significant advances, including in the western part of the city near the Kurakhove thermal power plant. Ukrainian forces no longer control the territory of the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant.
Pokrovsk: Heavy fighting is reported, with Ukrainian forces transferring reinforcements to Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). Russian forces are making incremental gains in the surrounding areas.
Vremivka Direction: Russian forces have captured Storozheve and are advancing towards Velyka Novosilka, creating a new "pocket". Ukrainian forces are reportedly encircled in Makarivka.
Chasiv Yar: Fighting continues, with Russian forces controlling over half the city and having now taken control of the railway station. The loss of the railway station is a significant blow to Ukrainian forces.
Other: Russian forces have taken control of Novoolenivka.

Kharkiv Oblast

Russian forces have liberated Lozovaya.
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault in the Kupyansk direction.
Increased drone activity is reported.

Kursk Region

Russian forces are pressing Ukrainian forces on all fronts.
Russian airborne troops have taken control of Cherkaska Konopelka.
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone operation targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
Russian Ministry of Defense reports repelling a Ukrainian attempt to invade Russian territory.

Drone Warfare

Extensive use of drones by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
Reports of AI integration into Russian Shahed drones.
Ukrainian forces report a 19-fold increase in drone supplies in 2024.
Latvia plans to transfer 1000 drones to Ukraine by the end of 2024.
Russian forces report needing more Mavic drones.
Operators of drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army detected and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army detected and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a forest plantation, ensuring the security of Russian positions from enemy drone strikes.
Operators of drones from the 110th Brigade, operating in the Kurakhove direction, spotted moving Ukrainian soldiers and dropped a munition, killing one.

Other Regions

Sumy Region: Ukrainian forces report a successful ambush on Russian forces.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian communication tower and a supply depot.

International Support

Continued US military aid, with a new announcement of $15 billion secured by future income from frozen Russian assets.
The Pentagon is transferring hundreds of thousands of artillery shells and rockets to Ukraine.
Divisions within the EU may arise due to Slovakia's stance on the conflict.
Poland plans to build a road to the border with Russia's Kaliningrad region for rapid troop deployment.

Information Warfare

Both sides are actively engaged in information warfare, with propaganda and disinformation campaigns.
Reports of Russian attempts to recruit individuals for sabotage through Telegram channels.

New Developments Since Earlier Reports

The Pentagon is reportedly "in the process of transferring" hundreds of thousands of artillery shells and rockets to Ukraine.
The US also announced it would provide Ukraine with $15 billion, secured by future income from frozen Russian assets.
Fighting continues in Belogorovka, with Ukrainian forces reportedly destroying a temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and two Ukrainian servicemen.
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack in the Kremenskie forests.
Ukrainian forces destroyed a temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with its contents, including two Ukrainian servicemen.
Russian forces report repelling a Ukrainian attack near Kamenskoe and destroying a temporary deployment point with its contents, including two Ukrainian servicemen.
Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces are shelling the area of Kupyansk with artillery and mortars, as well as using drones.
Reports of four Ukrainian soldiers being executed by Russian forces after surrendering are under investigation as a potential war crime.
A Ukrainian drone "Vampir" of the "Hydra" unit of the 137th Separate Marine Battalion remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria, Donetsk Oblast.
Explosions were reported in Kyiv-controlled Kherson.
Video evidence suggests a Russian soldier was targeted and killed by Ukrainian forces using a thermal-scoped weapon, likely a drone-dropped munition, during a nighttime operation. The location and involved units are not specified.
Video shows liberation of Elizavetovka, advancing towards Kurakhovo.
An interview with a resident of Selidovo (Donetsk region) was shared, detailing alleged atrocities committed by Ukrainian forces, including shelling of civilian areas, looting, and disappearances of civilians. The interviewee claims that Ukrainian forces treated locals as "separatists" and "not people," and that they engaged in widespread looting and violence. This interview is likely part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonize Ukrainian forces and justify the ongoing conflict.
Ussuri paratroopers reportedly captured a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier and brought it back to the rear. The vehicle was captured almost undamaged. Despite being marked with a red cross, indicating it was used for medical purposes, it was reportedly used to transport infantry to the front line and rotate enemy personnel.
Video shows a wounded Ukrainian soldier, nicknamed "Malyi" from the 47th Brigade "Magura," being supplied with a package containing a Ukrainian flag, warm water, warmers, and pills by Ukrainian pilots. The soldier was wounded after an enemy attack and was found by drone pilots from the 47th Brigade's Unmanned Systems Battalion. They requested a Bradley from the 3rd Mechanized Battalion for evacuation. The operation resulted in the death of the crew commander due to five enemy FPV attacks. The video highlights the importance of each life for Ukrainian forces.
The head of the Syrian administration, Ahmed al-Sharaa, stated that the new Syrian authorities do not want Russia to leave their country. He emphasized Russia's importance as the second most powerful state in the world and Syria's strategic interests with Russia. He also mentioned that all Syrian weapons have Russian origins and many power plants are operated by Russian experts.
Israel's El Al airline has canceled all flights to Moscow until March 2025.
Adviser to the President of Ukraine, Dmytro Lytvyn, stated that the visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Andrii Sybiha, to Syria is taking place on the instructions of President Volodymyr Zelensky.
President Zelensky is expecting a report on the visit and negotiations from Sybiha.
A resident of Zaporizhzhia, a retired lieutenant colonel of the militia, was sentenced to 15 years in prison for treason.
The convicted man renewed old ties with a former classmate who is now an employee of the Russian Ministry of Defense and offered his help in the war against Ukraine.
In September 2023, the convicted man received instructions from his curator to establish the location of Ukrainian defenders in the region and began collecting intelligence.
The man drove around Zaporizhzhia and the suburbs to establish the locations of air defense positions, personnel, and equipment of the Defense Forces.
He also informed the enemy about the location of production facilities of local defense industry enterprises.
The convicted man transmitted the collected information to the enemy via messenger.
The man will remain in custody until the verdict comes into force.
The investigation was carried out by the SBU.
Another missile of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was shot down in the border area of the Kursk region.
Poland announced plans to build a road to the border with Russia's Kaliningrad region in 2025 for the rapid deployment of troops and security forces if necessary.
Russian forces have broken through to the railway station in the western part of Chasiv Yar and secured it. According to reports, assault groups have also established a foothold in the northern microdistrict opposite the railway station.
Russian forces advanced near Terny, Vozdvyzhenka, Novoukrainka, Uspenivka, Dalne, Sontsivka, Novoelizavetivka, Vovkove, Kurakhove, and Shevchenko. The area north of Novoelizavetivka was clarified.
The US will provide Ukraine with an additional $2.5 billion in military aid, including a $1.25 billion package for the Ukrainian military and a $1.22 billion package under the USAI initiative.
Russian forces report that assault groups have secured positions in the northern microdistrict of Chasiv Yar, opposite the railway station. They also report advances in Toretsk.
The Ukrainian police named a Russian military officer, Artem Tareev, who allegedly ordered his troops to shoot at civilians in Bucha in March 2022.
Russian forces report that assault groups have secured positions in the northern microdistrict of Chasiv Yar, opposite the railway station. They also report advances in Toretsk.

Assessment

The situation on the ground is rapidly evolving, with Russian forces making gains in several key areas. The capture of Novoolenivka and advances in Chasiv Yar represent significant setbacks for Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region. The increased fighting in the Kursk region, including reports of North Korean troops, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The continued reliance on drone warfare by both sides highlights the evolving nature of the battlefield. The international support for Ukraine remains strong, with the US providing additional military aid, but divisions within the EU may be emerging. The information warfare dimension of the conflict continues to be significant, with both sides actively shaping the narrative through propaganda and disinformation.

Situation Report