Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - December 29, 2024, 12:58 UTC

Executive Summary

Russian forces maintain offensive operations, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with a significant push in the Pokrovsk direction. Intense fighting continues in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction. Ukrainian forces have reportedly withdrawn from the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive use by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces report successes in repelling attacks and inflicting losses on Russian troops but are facing increasing pressure and a shortage of supplies. Reports indicate Ukrainian forces may be withdrawing towards the Dnipro River. The humanitarian situation is worsening, with ongoing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Azerbaijan's President Aliyev blames Russia for the downing of an Azerbaijani airliner near Grozny, demanding accountability and compensation. Russia denies involvement, but tensions escalate.

Strategic Analysis

The overall situation remains challenging for Ukrainian forces. Continued Russian advances, particularly in Kurakhove and Pokrovsk, suggest a concerted effort to achieve a breakthrough in the Donetsk region. The capture of key settlements and the reported encirclement of Ukrainian forces in certain areas indicate a shift in the balance of power. Ukrainian forces are under significant pressure, facing shortages of troops, ammunition, and supplies. The reported withdrawal from the Kurakhivska TPP is a significant development. Russian forces are assessed to be leveraging their advantage in manpower and materiel to sustain the offensive, aiming to exhaust Ukrainian defenses.

The incident involving the Azerbaijani plane adds a critical new dimension to the conflict, potentially drawing in another regional power and significantly escalating tensions with Russia. Azerbaijan's strong stance, demanding accountability and compensation, suggests a possible shift in its foreign policy and a willingness to challenge Russia. This could lead to a broader regional conflict or increased support for Ukraine from Azerbaijan and potentially other countries. Russia's denial of involvement and counter-accusations further complicate the situation.

Extensive drone use by both sides highlights the evolving nature of the conflict. Ukrainian forces are effectively using drones for reconnaissance and targeted strikes but face resource constraints. Reports of Russian forces using approximately 100 Geran drones to deplete Ukrainian air defenses overnight suggest a deliberate strategy to overwhelm Ukrainian capabilities. Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets, including infrastructure and military equipment.

The involvement of North Korean troops in the Kursk region adds complexity and raises concerns about potential escalation. Reports indicate significant losses among these troops, with some reportedly committing suicide.

The deteriorating humanitarian situation, with civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, highlights the devastating impact on the Ukrainian population. Coordinated missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure exacerbate the humanitarian crisis.

The potential strategic pact between Russia and Iran adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. Continued US military aid to Ukraine underscores the ongoing international support for Ukraine's defense efforts.

Key Developments

Drone Warfare

• Mykolaiv Region:
  • Ukrainian air defense systems engaged multiple Russian drones, shooting down nine Shahed-131/136 drones overnight.
  • Debris from downed drones caused fires and damage in Mykolaiv and Ochakiv.
  • A multi-story building in Mykolaiv caught fire due to a drone attack.
  • One person was injured in an energy infrastructure facility in the region due to falling debris.
  • Russian drones were launched from Crimea.
  • Ukrainian forces report a threat of enemy drone attacks from the east in Sumy Oblast and from the south in Mykolaiv Oblast.
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports new enemy drone attacks in Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, from the Black Sea.
  • Ukrainian air defenses may be operating in Mykolaiv Oblast against a suspected reconnaissance drone.
  • A Lancet and a Zala drone were reported moving from the direction of Velyka Korenivka towards the Zavodskyi district of Mykolaiv.
  • Three drones are confirmed to be moving through Kutsurub in a northerly direction.
  • One drone is reported near the Korabelnyi district of Mykolaiv, with potential for loud noise.
  • One drone is reported in the Halytsynove area.
  • Two drones are circling near the Kosa area.
  • One drone is flying from Velyka Korenykha towards the Zavodskyi/Centralnyi district of Mykolaiv, with active engagement reported.
  • One drone is confirmed to be circling near Nechaiane, with previous drones in the area either shot down or suppressed by electronic warfare.
  • One drone is confirmed near Ochakiv.
  • One drone is reported in the Nechaiane area, with the course shifting towards Odesa Oblast.
  • A group of drones is moving south of Mykolaiv towards the city, with a call for residents to take shelter.
  • Two new drones are approaching Velyka Korenykha, with potential for anti-drone operations to be heard in the city.
  • One drone is still circling west of Mykolaiv.
  • Explosions were heard again in Mykolaiv.
  • Enemy drones are moving from the Black Sea towards Chornomorske/Pivdenne (Odesa Oblast).
  • Two drones are reported near Kobleve, and two more are moving from the Tendra Spit towards Ochakiv.
  • Enemy drones are reportedly heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast from the south, with a call for residents of Ochakiv to take shelter.
  • Odesa Oblast is also under threat of enemy drone attacks.
  • Rescuers showed the aftermath of a drone attack on Mykolaiv. In the Ingul district, firefighters extinguished two fires. A fire on the roof of a five-story residential building (5 sq. m) and a burning reed (1000 sq. m) were extinguished. No information was received about the victims. The roof of the apartment building was partially destroyed, and windows were broken.
• Chernihiv Region:
  • Drone movement detected in Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions.
  • Reports of drones near Nizhyn.
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports drone movements in Chernihiv Oblast to the west.
  • City of Pryluky is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the northeast.
  • New reports of drone movements: Chernihiv Oblast: Drones moving towards Kyiv Oblast, course south-west. A new report indicates drones moving towards Kyiv Oblast, course west.
  • 1 drone was reported north of Chernihiv, moving westward. 2 drones from the Nizhyn area were heading southwest. 1 drone was reported in the north of Chernihiv Oblast. New groups of drones were entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk, heading south/southeast.
  • Residents of Nizhyn are advised to take shelter due to the threat of an enemy drone.
• Voronezh Region:
  • Over 10 drones detected and destroyed, with debris causing damage to railway infrastructure.
• Belgorod Region:
  • Two civilians injured in a Ukrainian drone attack.
  • Several villages without electricity after a Ukrainian drone attack.
  • One person injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on a moving vehicle.
  • Several villages in the Grayvoron district of Belgorod Oblast were left without electricity after a Ukrainian drone attack.
  • A drone hit the village of Verkhososna, damaging a power line.
  • Two drones attacked the village of Borisovka, injuring two civilians and damaging an administrative building.
  • A drone attacked a moving vehicle in the village of Murom, injuring the driver.
  • An FPV drone attacked a private house in the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka.
  • A drone attacked an agricultural enterprise in the village of Gruzskoye, damaging a parked bus.
  • A Ukrainian drone attacked a school in the village of Borisovka.
  • A Russian plane dropped a 500-kilogram aerial bomb on the village of Razumnoye-71, causing no casualties or damage.
  • Ukrainian forces report shooting down two more Russian drones over the Belgorod region.
• Rostov Oblast:
  • 17 Ukrainian drones destroyed and suppressed overnight.
  • During the night, 4 more UAVs were destroyed and suppressed by electronic warfare.
  • During the night, 4 more UAVs were destroyed and suppressed by electronic warfare in the Millerovsky and Tarasovsky districts of Rostov Oblast.
  • A UAV attack on Salsk, Rostov Oblast, damaged a locomotive depot.
  • Russian forces report that two Ukrainian drones were shot down over Rostov oblast.
• Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast:
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly using around 100 drones per day.
• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Ukrainian drone attack on the Makeevsky Machine-Building Plant prevented.
  • In Horlivka, a man was killed and two others were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack.
  • Russian forces report operators of drones from the 110th Brigade spotted moving Ukrainian soldiers and dropped a munition, killing one.
  • Remote mining by Ukrainian "Vampir" drone near Zoria.
  • Drone strikes on assault columns near Kurakhove.
  • Russian forces used FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
  • Operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division detected and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater.
  • A Ukrainian drone "Vampir" remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria.
  • Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold and a mortar position in the Kurakhove direction.
  • Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces used drones to target the positions of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in the Kurakhovo direction.
  • Russian forces report that operators of drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army discovered and destroyed a disguised Ukrainian communications repeater.
  • A Ukrainian drone "Vampir" of the "Hydra" unit of the 137th Separate Marine Battalion remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria, Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian forces are using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
  • Russian forces report that operators of drones from the 110th Brigade, operating in the Kurakhove direction, spotted moving Ukrainian soldiers and dropped a munition, killing one.
  • Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces used drones to target the positions of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in the Kurakhovo direction.
  • Fighters of the 4th Brigade, 3rd Army, discovered and destroyed a Ukrainian dugout with personnel using a remotely-detonated mine.
  • Ukrainian forces report that a Russian drone strike damaged the central market in Nikopol, injuring eight civilians. Seven of the injured were hospitalized, with one woman in critical condition and three in severe condition.
  • Ukrainian forces report that operators of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed enemy personnel and equipment in the Kursk region.
  • Russian forces, specifically the 16th Special Forces Brigade, reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian mortar with an FPV drone.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting and destroying Russian military equipment and personnel near Novoelizavetivka, south of Pokrovsk.
  • Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Footage showing the destruction of an enemy UAV control point by drone operators of the 36th Army of the Vostok group.
  • Ukrainian forces equipped with two shotguns shot down Russian Mavik drones.
  • Marines used UAVs to locate and eliminate a Baba Yaga-type heavy drone in the Kakhovka direction.
  • The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine, with the help of donations, shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance UAV wrapped in reinforced tape.
  • Operators БПЛА 3 БрОП НГУ «Спартан» detected and destroyed an enemy drone calculation position using artillery and FPV drones.
  • Drone use in repelling assault in Kurakhove.
  • Video evidence of military engagement near Kurakhove.
  • Operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army detected and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a forest plantation, ensuring the security of Russian positions from enemy drone strikes.
• Kursk Region:
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
  • Ukrainian forces report destroying 3 Russian BTRs near Kursk.
  • Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
  • Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans in the Kursk region.
  • Code 9.2 unit drops "goodies" on communists and Jucheists in the Kursk region.
  • A video shows the crew of a Ka-52M helicopter destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
  • Operators of drones from the BARS-3 "Rodina" unit destroyed a Polish self-propelled gun "Krab" on the Kupyansk front. The drone identified the target, and artillery subsequently destroyed it.
  • Video shows drone footage of a Russian soldier loading a modified drone with grenades and deploying it.
  • Video shows drone footage from the 80th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces engaging Russian infantry.
• Kharkiv Region:
  • Increased drone activity reported, with movements towards Balakliia.
  • Russian operators destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk and an armored vehicle.
  • A Russian attack drone unit successfully eliminated Ukrainian troops in a forested area.
  • Ukrainian forces used an FPV drone to destroy a Ukrainian T-64BV tank near Kupyansk.
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports drone movements towards Poltava Oblast.
  • Pilots of the "ACHILLES" battalion of the 92nd brigade are reported to have destroyed enemy personnel and a truck.
  • Russian forces reportedly used drones to eliminate a Ukrainian special forces group near Kupyansk.
  • Russian forces have used drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a wooded area.
  • Russian forces have used FPV drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a forest.
  • Ukrainian forces used a drone to attack a Russian position near a road, resulting in a fire.
  • Operators of drones from the BARS-3 "Rodina" unit destroyed a Polish self-propelled gun "Krab" on the Kupyansk front. The drone identified the target, and artillery subsequently destroyed it.
  • A new FPV-drone "Hortenzia" with support of management for optical fiber started to be used in the zone of special military operation.
  • Ukrainian forces report a successful operation in the Kharkiv region, capturing Russian soldiers. Video footage shows Ukrainian tanks and M-113 APCs advancing, deploying troops, and engaging in combat, ultimately returning with captured Russian soldiers despite enemy artillery fire.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
  • 198 drones of various modifications attacked multiple settlements.
  • Ukrainian forces used drones to target and destroy Russian military personnel and equipment in the region.
• Other Regions:
  • Ukrainian forces report shooting down 20 out of 31 drones launched by Russia overnight.
  • Ukrainian forces report shooting down 15 out of 16 drones, with one drone "lost."
  • Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle in the Sumy region.
  • Air raid alerts issued for multiple regions.
  • Ukrainian forces report their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
  • Russian forces report that operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division detected and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater.
  • Ukrainian forces report that the drone threat in the Sumy region has passed.
  • 13 Ukrainian drones were destroyed overnight by air defense systems over Russian territory. 5 were shot down over Bryansk Oblast, 3 over Kursk Oblast, 2 each over Belgorod and Tula Oblasts, and 1 over Astrakhan Oblast.
  • Ukrainian UAVs neutralized in the Suvorovsky district of Tula Oblast.
  • Several groups of attack drones detected south of Kyiv, suggesting a potential imminent drone attack on the capital or surrounding areas. Ukrainian air defense systems are likely on high alert.
  • New reports of drone movements: Poltava Oblast: Drones in the north-east, course south-west. Drones on the border with Cherkasy Oblast, course east. A new report indicates drones in the south and northeast, course southwest. Cherkasy Oblast: Drones on the border with Kyiv Oblast, course west. Kyiv Oblast: Drones north of Kyiv, course west. Mykolaiv Oblast: Under threat of enemy drone attacks. Zhytomyr Oblast: Under threat of enemy drone attacks. Lubny: Under threat of enemy drone attacks.
  • Air raid alerts issued for Kyiv and several other Oblasts due to the threat of attack drones.
  • Extensive drone warfare continues across the region, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
  • A Ukrainian drone with a corner reflector traveled from Chernihiv to Uzhhorod and entered Hungarian airspace.
  • Russian forces report that 10 Ukrainian drones were destroyed during a morning attack.
  • One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest. Five drones near Konotop, moving southwest.
  • Operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army detected and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
  • A Russian drone operator claims to have destroyed a Ukrainian Baba Yaga drone.
  • Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian Baba Yaga drone.
  • Russian forces used approximately 100 Geran drones to deplete Ukrainian air defenses overnight.
  • Video allegedly shows a Ukrainian drone strike on a command post of the 810th Marine Brigade at the Lgov sugar factory.
  • Video shows a drone strike on a US-made M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle near Sudzha.
  • Video from Sudoplatov shows Russian forces towing a captured American M113 armored personnel carrier.
  • Explosive strikes were reported in the region.
  • Russian forces tracked the route of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone, identified the location of a Ukrainian strongpoint, and destroyed a supply drop intended for the Ukrainian forces.
  • Air raid alerts issued for Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Pryluky, Myrhorod, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Vinnitsa, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, and Khmelnytskyi.
  • Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk. Ukrainian air defense forces successfully detected and neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv. Ukrainian Air Force reports increased drone activity in Poltava and Myrhorod, as well as in Kyivska and Chernihivska regions. Mykolaiv Oblast was under threat of enemy drone attacks.
  • Overnight, Russian forces actively attempted to attack Tokmak, Energodar and Melitopol. Ukrainian air defense successfully shot down hostile objects.
  • Warning regarding drone activity in Krasnodar Krai.
  • Air raid alerts issued for Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts due to the threat of drone attacks.
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports no threat of attack drones.
  • A Ukrainian source reports that a drone struck a ship in Crimea that was seized by Russia in 2014. The ship, "Fedir Uryupin," belonged to the Ukrainian company "Chornomornaftogaz" and was seized during the occupation of Crimea. The drone hit the ship above the waterline, causing damage but not sinking it.
  • Activity of enemy tactical aviation is observed in the north-eastern direction. There is a threat of using aviation means of destruction for frontline regions.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force announced the end of the threat of enemy drones.
  • Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. A video message from the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) claims that Ukrainian drones can hit targets up to 2000 km away.
  • Ukrainian Ambassador to the EU, Vsevolod Chentsov, reported that Russia is integrating AI into Shahed drones to enhance their target recognition capabilities, even when offline.
  • Reports of widespread drone activity across multiple regions, including new drone threats in Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnitsa, Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Vasylkiv, Brovary, Sumy, Kharkiv, Lubny, Kremenchuk, Kryvyi Rih, Chuhuiv, Pavlohrad, Zlatopil, and Merefa. Air raid alerts have been issued in multiple Oblasts.
  • Ukrainian forces report destroying 3 Russian BTRs near Kursk. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces destroying 6 Russian soldiers in the Kursk border area.
  • Ukrainian "Vampir" drone of the "Hydra" unit of the 137th Separate Marine Battalion is remotely mining Russian logistics routes near Zoria, Donetsk Oblast.
  • Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian command post near the Toretsk mine.
  • Russian forces used approximately 100 Geran drones to deplete Ukrainian air defenses overnight.
  • Footage showing the destruction of an enemy UAV control point by drone operators of the 36th Army of the Vostok group.
  • Ukrainian forces report that the Russian military is executing North Korean soldiers to prevent them from being captured.
  • Reports indicate significant losses among North Korean soldiers in the Russian army, with 1,000 casualties in the past week alone. Some are reportedly committing suicide. Ukrainian forces report that North Korean soldiers have been rotated out of the Kursk region and replaced with Russian soldiers. Ukrainian President Zelensky, in a video message, stated that North Korean soldiers are involved in the fighting in the Kursk region and are suffering heavy losses.
  • Ukrainian forces are continuing to transfer reinforcements to Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) from the 155th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which was trained and equipped by France. These forces were intended for the anticipated winter offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, due to the rapidly evolving situation south of Krasnoarmiisk, the Ukrainian command has been forced to deploy these reserves, which had been accumulated for offensive operations.
• Orlov Region:
  • Ukrainian forces struck a fortified military facility of the Russian Armed Forces, destroying a storage, maintenance, and repair facility for "Shahed" drones.
• Pokrovsk:
  • Russian forces are advancing south towards Ukrainka, reportedly entering Pisky.
  • Russian forces are storming Novooleenovka and advancing towards Slavyanka.
  • High-intensity battles are ongoing near Myrolubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zelene, Novovasylivka, Chumatske, Novyy Trud, Novotroyitske, Novoyelyzavetivka, Novoolenivka, Novopustynka, and Vozdvyzhenka.
  • Russian forces advanced approximately 2 kilometers near Pushkino, reaching its outskirts and liberating Veselyi Gai.
  • Russian forces have effectively cut off the Pokrovsk-Dnipro highway. Russian DRGs are operating in Pokrovsk itself.
  • Ukrainian forces are continuing to transfer reinforcements to Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) from the 155th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which was trained and equipped by France. These forces were intended for the anticipated winter offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, due to the rapidly evolving situation south of Krasnoarmiisk, the Ukrainian command has been forced to deploy these reserves, which had been accumulated for offensive operations.
  • Pokrovsk is completely without power.
  • Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction.
• Bryansk Region: An attempt by the Kyiv regime to carry out a terrorist attack using a UAV on the territory of the Bryansk region was thwarted.
• Kursk Region: Ukrainian artillery of the 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade is shelling Russian positions in the region. After the shelling, drones are used to track down individual Russian soldiers.

Ground Operations

Donetsk Oblast

• Two civilians injured in Horlivka due to a Ukrainian attack.
• Fighting continues in the Dzerzhinsk area.
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka.
• Seven members of the 101st Brigade surrendered near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk).
• Kurakhove:
  • Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city.
  • Ukrainian withdrawal reported.
  • High-intensity battles near several settlements.
  • Russian forces maintain control of approximately 80% of Kurakhove, continuing offensive operations.
  • Attack FPV drone teams of the Yug Group of Forces eliminated a stronghold and a mortar position of the AFU in Kurakhove direction.
  • Enemy reports that Kurakhove thermal power plant is under Russian control.
  • Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces used drones to target the positions of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in the Kurakhovo direction.
  • Russian forces report that operators of drones from the 110th Brigade, operating in the Kurakhove direction, spotted moving Ukrainian soldiers and dropped a munition, killing one.
  • Ukrainian forces have reportedly withdrawn from the high-rise building area in Kurakhove, with fighting shifting towards the Kurakhove thermal power plant.
  • Russian forces are advancing up to 3km west of the Kurakhovskoe reservoir towards Shevchenko.
  • Russian assault units advanced up to 1.5 km west of the city.
  • Russian forces report liberating the settlement of Gigant to the south of Kurakhove.
  • Clashes continue in the central part of the city for the remaining high-rise buildings.
  • Russian forces are also advancing in the western part of the high-rise buildings and have placed a flag on the roof of the sanatorium.
  • Russian forces continue clearing high-rise buildings and the private sector, pushing Ukrainian forces towards the territory of the thermal power plant.
  • South of Kurakhove, Russian forces have advanced 1 km west of Dalne and expelled Ukrainian forces from nearby forest belts.
  • South and north of Krasnohorivka, Russian forces advanced 1.7 km and are attacking Petropavlivka.
  • Russian forces have expanded their control in areas surrounding Kurakhove, including advances near Shevchenko and to the south towards Dalne.
  • Russian assault groups have reportedly secured new positions in the Kurakhivka axis, with heavy fighting reported near several settlements.
  • High-intensity battles are reported in the areas of northern Shevchenko, Peschanoye, Novovasilevka, Novooleenovka, Ukrainka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, and southern Shevchenko.
  • Russian forces destroyed a bridge over the Volchya River between Konstantinopol and Andreevka, further degrading Ukrainian logistics to the west of Kurakhove.
  • Russian forces improved their tactical position, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses, including 145 soldiers in the past 24 hours.
  • Russian forces liberated an additional 5 square kilometers, advancing south of Ukrainian positions in the industrial zone.
  • Due to high combat losses in the Kurakhove area, internal rotations of personnel of the 116th separate mechanized brigade have been significantly increased. The decline in the morale and psychological state of the soldiers became an obvious problem for the brigade, and cases of desertion and refusal to obey orders have increased. It is possible that units of the 46th separate airmobile brigade will be withdrawn from Kurakhove deep into the defense, due to the extreme decline in combat capability. The personnel of the brigade holding the front line are told to hold out for another day or two, which is a classic trick of the Ukrainian Armed Forces command when they want to buy time at the cost of the lives of the unit.
  • In the Uspenovka area, resistance is still focused on maintaining the stability of the defense in the areas of the 71st separate jaeger brigade and the 37th separate marine brigade along the Uspenovka - Yantarnoye line. Intelligence revealed preparations for assault operations by the 71st separate jaeger brigade to regain control of lost positions west of Uspenovka. Daytime maneuvers of assault groups were stopped: one of the groups, coming under fire, was forced to retreat, suffering losses. This does not exclude the possibility of replacing the group and evacuating the wounded, emphasizing the enemy's intention to continue assault operations to improve their tactical position and regain previously lost positions.
  • In Dachne, active preparation of fortifications for a reserve defense line is underway. The enemy has focused its efforts on deploying reconnaissance and fire positions and creating tactically advantageous positions within the residential area. Supplies are carried out covertly, mainly at night, through the only route Ulakly - Dachne.
  • North of Kurakhove assault teams approached the outskirts of Petropavlivka and engaged in fighting for this settlement.
  • Offensive actions continue to seize the defense area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, covering the approaches to Andriivka from the northeast.
  • From the area of Stari Terny, assault units of the Russian Armed Forces are fighting in Shevchenko, advancing towards Dachne and the industrial zone of Kurakhove.
  • Dachne is being reinforced by the enemy, additional positions are being equipped in the residential area.
  • In Kurakhove, assault groups occupied the first buildings in the defense area of the Kurakhove thermal power plant and are fighting on its territory.
  • In the area of Yantarne - Uspenivka, the enemy is trying to hold positions on the right bank with forces of 71 and 37 brigades. An attempt was made to counterattack to regain positions west of Uspenivka, but to no avail. The enemy suffered losses and retreated.
  • West of Kurakhove, in the Zelenivka area, units of the Russian Armed Forces advanced slightly closer to Rozlyv and Konstantinopil.
  • One of the brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was withdrawn for replenishment due to losses of up to 70% of personnel.
  • Russian forces started the assault on the thermal power plant in Kurakhove.
  • Russian forces are advancing near Stari Terny.
  • Russian forces are advancing towards Dachne and the industrial area of Kurakhove.
  • Russian forces destroyed a camouflaged enemy antenna in the central part of Shevchenko.
  • Video shows a drone observation of Russian forces ambushing and engaging enemy personnel in a wooded area.
  • Video shows a drone recording of a military engagement near a road.
  • In DPR, on the Kurakhovo direction, Russian fighters of the Siberian special forces unit "Vega" identified an enemy Leopard tank and defeated it with several FPV drones.
  • New Update: According to unconfirmed information, Ukrainian forces no longer control the territory of the Kurakhovskaya TPP. Their units are leaving the station under pressure from Russian assault groups.
  • New Update: Video evidence suggests that Russian forces have captured the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant. This is considered a key point in the battle for the city.
  • New Update: Russian forces are storming the thermal power plant and advancing in multiple directions around Kurakhove, with reports of Ukrainian forces withdrawing from the plant.
  • New Update: Russian forces are advancing near Shevchenko, Yantarne, Rozlyv, and Rivnopil, as confirmed by Ukrainian military analysts.
  • Video evidence confirms ongoing engagements, with soldiers from the 68th tank regiment shown advancing and capturing enemy positions. Russian assault troops are intensifying efforts near Dachny and the industrial zone, while also attempting to penetrate Ukrainian defenses to the south of the city. Drone strikes remain a significant feature of the fighting.
  • Continued fighting in Kurakhovo. Assault troops are pressing in the direction of Dachny from the north and the industrial zone from the north-west. To the south of the city, the defensive line in the fields is being forced open, covering the approaches to the city from the south. On the right bank, they occupied part of the defensive positions of the Ukrainians to the north-west of Uspenovka. Fighting is ongoing for Yantarne. From the south, they are attacking, having slightly pushed the Ukrainians in the direction of Rozliv and Konstantynopol. Fighting continues on the outskirts of Urozhayne.
  • The 68th regiment is burning enemy armored vehicles near Kurakhovo. An enemy armored vehicle got lost, ran over mines (the engineering and sapper company of the 68th Guards Tank Regiment did its best), it got cold and Biryusa (ovBPLA) decided to warm it up), after all, the new year is coming soon.
  • Heavy fighting continues in the Kurakhove area. Russian forces report fierce battles near Peschanoe and Volchye, with attempts to advance towards Chunishino and Myrolyubivka. Ukrainian forces report heavy fighting in Lysovka, with Russian forces advancing to the center of the settlement. Ukrainian forces also report destroying a reserve of the so-called "Caucasian Legion" that was advancing on armored vehicles to reinforce Ukrainian units in Lysovka. Ukrainian forces are attempting to prevent Russian advances near Peschanoe, Volchye, and Solyonoe at any cost, using all available means of destruction and reserves. The situation is similar south of Kurakhove, near Novovasylivka and Novoelizavetivka, where a breakthrough by Russian forces threatens to reach the Dnipropetrovsk region and encircle Kurakhove from the west.
• Vremivka Direction:
  • Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka.
  • Clashes ongoing near multiple settlements.