Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - December 29, 2024, 08:58 UTC
Key Developments
Drone Warfare
Ground Operations
Donetsk Oblast
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Two civilians injured in Horlivka due to a Ukrainian attack.
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Fighting continues in the Dzerzhinsk area.
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Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka.
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Seven members of the 101st Brigade surrendered near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk).
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Kurakhove:
- Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city.
- Ukrainian withdrawal reported.
- High-intensity battles near several settlements.
- Russian forces maintain control of approximately 80% of Kurakhove, continuing offensive operations.
- Attack FPV drone teams of the Yug Group of Forces eliminated a stronghold and a mortar position of the AFU in Kurakhove direction.
- Enemy reports that Kurakhove thermal power plant is under Russian control.
- Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces used drones to target the positions of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in the Kurakhovo direction.
- Russian forces report that operators of drones from the 110th Brigade, operating in the Kurakhove direction, spotted moving Ukrainian soldiers and dropped a munition, killing one.
- Ukrainian forces have reportedly withdrawn from the high-rise building area in Kurakhove, with fighting shifting towards the Kurakhove thermal power plant.
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Vremivka Direction:
- Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka.
- Clashes ongoing near multiple settlements.
- Russian forces reportedly already at the Huliaipole-Velyka Novoselka road west of Vremivka and Neskuchne.
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Toretsk:
- Street fighting continues.
- Russian forces captured two objects on the outskirts of the "Central" mine spoil heap.
- Continued fighting reported.
- Russian forces are advancing near Dzerzhinsk, with fighting ongoing in the center of the town.
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Chasiv Yar:
- Russian forces control over half of the city.
- Ukrainian units regrouping.
- In Chasiv Yar, Ukrainian forces have temporarily stabilized the situation and conducted a series of successful counterattacks.
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Pokrovsk:
- Russian forces advancing south towards Ukrainka, reportedly entering Pisky.
- High-intensity battles ongoing near multiple settlements.
- Russian forces are solidifying positions east of highway M-30.
- Ukrainian forces are continuing to transfer reinforcements to Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk).
- Aerial reconnaissance from the "Mad Dogs" brigade detected a night raid by Ukrainian forces from the 32nd Brigade. A Russian FPV drone operator, "Dolgiy," reportedly destroyed four Ukrainian soldiers and wounded two during this raid in the Pokrovsk direction.
Kharkiv Oblast
- Russian forces launched a new offensive, fording the Volchya River and establishing a bridgehead near Volchansk.
- Kupyansk Direction: Fighting ongoing near several settlements.
- Reserves Transfer: Kyiv transferring reserves to Lozova.
- Drone Activity: Increased drone activity reported.
Kursk Region
- Territorial Gains: Russian forces liberated Novoivanovka.
- Heavy Fighting: Continues along the front line (57 clashes).
- HIMARS Strike and Alleged Civilian Deaths: Ukrainian forces reportedly used HIMARS with cluster munitions against North Korean special forces.
- Allegations of Atrocities: Captured Ukrainian soldier confessed to killing civilians.
- Casualties: Over 3,000 wounded and killed North Korean soldiers reported.
- A Ukrainian soldier surrendered to Russian forces in the Kursk region after reading a leaflet.
- Servicemen of the "Pentagon" unit of the 225th Assault Battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces report a decrease in the activity of enemy armored vehicles in the Kursk region. Instead, there has been a significant increase in the number of attempts by sabotage and reconnaissance groups to penetrate Ukrainian defenses.
- Ukrainian forces report repelling an attack by Russian forces in the region, destroying five armored vehicles.
Geopolitical Developments
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United States:
- The US administration expects to reach the ceiling of the US national debt between January 14 and 23.
- The White House claims to have "primary evidence" that the Baku-Grozny flight was shot down by Russian air defense.
- US President Biden has instructed the Pentagon to continue increasing military aid to Ukraine.
- The US recognizes Salome Zurabishvili as the only legitimate president of Georgia until the new elections.
- Former US ambassador to Denmark stated that the idea of Denmark ensuring the security of Greenland is "absurd".
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Slovakia:
- Slovak Prime Minister Fico stated that the Ukrainian leadership is leading the country to disaster.
- Slovakia has expressed its readiness to host peace talks on Ukraine.
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Baltic Sea:
- NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that NATO will increase its military presence in the Baltic Sea.
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Israel: The Israeli military reportedly used a US-supplied THAAD system to intercept a ballistic missile launched from Yemen.
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BRICS: Belarus, Bolivia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan are set to join BRICS as partner countries starting January 1, 2025.
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Denmark:
- Denmark is reportedly allocating a $303 million aid package to Ukraine.
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Germany: German Chancellor Scholz stated that Germany will play an important role in security guarantees for Ukraine.
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Georgia: The US has imposed sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party. Georgian Parliament members and government officials arrive at the legislative building for the inauguration of President Mikhail Kavelashvili. The newly elected president of Georgia, Kavelashvili, will start working in the presidential palace after the inauguration, despite the protest of Zurabishvili, the speaker of the parliament said. Zurabishvili stated that she will leave the presidential palace.
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Syria: The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the establishment of contact with the new Syrian government.
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Azerbaijan:
- Azerbaijan Airlines has suspended flights to several Russian cities for safety reasons.
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North Korea: North Korea will reportedly adopt the "toughest" strategy against the US for its security and national interests.
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Sweden: Sweden has begun searching for locations for burials in case of a possible war, according to The Associated Press. The Swedish Emergency Management Agency has recommended that funeral services find land to prepare for potential mass casualties in light of the country's entry into NATO and strained relations with Russia in the Baltic region.
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Russia:
- Russian President Putin signed a decree on the new "Strategy for Countering Extremism in the Russian Federation". The document introduces the concept of "Russophobia" and mentions Ukraine as a source of extremism.
- Russian citizens who have left the country will be subject to registration as part of the counter-extremism strategy.
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Greece: Greece to transfer 24 RIM-7 Sea Sparrow surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine to replenish the combat stock of FrankenSAM air defense systems.
Other Developments
- In Kryvyi Rih, the situation on the morning of December 29, 2024, is under control. No shelling was reported in the Kryvyi Rih region overnight. In the Nikopol region, the enemy attacked the Pokrovska and Chervonogrigorivska communities with heavy artillery.
- The "West" group of troops destroyed 12 Ukrainian drone control points in the past day.
- Two drones were destroyed overnight over annexed Crimea.
- The death toll in the plane crash in South Korea has risen to 167.
- Russian forces report needing more Mavic drones to break through enemy defenses on all fronts, from Kursk to Kurakhove.
- In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian forces used drones to destroy an enemy communication tower and a supply depot.
- Within an hour, explosions were heard in the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, in the suburbs of Kharkiv and Cherkasy.
- An attempt by the Kyiv regime to carry out a terrorist attack using a UAV on the territory of the Bryansk region was thwarted.
- The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reports significant losses for Russian forces, including over 785,930 personnel, 9,656 tanks, 19,981 armored fighting vehicles, 21,450 artillery systems, 1,256 MLRS, 1,032 anti-aircraft systems, 369 aircraft, 329 helicopters, 21,038 operational-tactical level UAVs, 3,003 cruise missiles, 28 warships/boats, 1 submarine, 32,410 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 3,670 special equipment.
- A vegetable warehouse is burning in the Krasnodar region, with the fire area increasing to 1,400 square meters. The fire has been localized to 4,000 square meters. The fire likely occurred due to a short circuit.
- In Kharkiv region, 500,000 subscribers are without heat after a Russian attack.
- In South Korea, a Boeing 737 crashed during landing, possibly due to a bird strike. 151 people are reported dead. The control tower warned the plane about the danger of a bird strike.
- A Russian citizen has been detained for transmitting photos of fuel and energy facilities in the Moscow region to Ukrainian military intelligence.
- Ukrainian military analyst Butusov reports that Ukrainian forces are gradually withdrawing to the main defense line near the Dnipro River. He states that the situation is deteriorating, with Russian forces approaching settlements and showing no signs of stopping.
- The FSB detained a citizen who was sending photos of fuel and energy facilities in the Moscow region to Ukrainian military intelligence.
- An agent of the Ukrainian special services who was filming energy facilities in the Moscow region has been detained.
Updated Situation
The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely tense, with Russian forces maintaining their advance in the Donetsk region, especially in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and the Vremivka direction. Enemy reports that Kurakhove thermal power plant is under Russian control. Drone warfare is still a dominant aspect, with widespread activity across multiple regions. Ukrainian forces report shooting down a significant number of Russian drones, but Russian forces also report successes in targeting Ukrainian positions and equipment with drones. Ukrainian forces report they repelled an attack by two "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles and 24 "Shahed" drones. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that nine enemy drones were shot down during the night.
In Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces launched a new offensive, crossing the Volchya River and establishing a bridgehead near Volchansk. Fighting continues in the Kupyansk direction, and Kyiv is transferring reserves to Lozova.
In the Kursk region, heavy fighting continues, with reports of Ukrainian HIMARS strikes and allegations of atrocities. A Ukrainian soldier surrendered to Russian forces after reading a leaflet, highlighting the ongoing psychological warfare.
Geopolitically, tensions remain extremely high, with the US continuing to support Ukraine and NATO increasing its presence in the Baltic Sea. The situation in the Middle East also remains volatile, with reports of Israeli military action in Yemen. The potential expansion of BRICS and Sweden's preparations for potential mass casualties highlight the broader global instability. Russia introduced a new counter-extremism strategy, including the concept of "Russophobia" and measures to track citizens who have left the country.
The crash of a civilian airliner in South Korea, while not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, has resulted in a significant loss of life (now 167 reported deaths) and underscores the potential for accidents and disasters in a world increasingly marked by conflict and instability.
The destruction of 12 Ukrainian drone control points by the "West" group of troops and the downing of two drones over Crimea highlight the ongoing efforts by both sides to counter the other's drone capabilities.
In Georgia, the inauguration of the new pro-Russian president, Mikhail Kavelashvili, has taken place. The former president, Salome Zurabishvili, stated that she would leave the presidential palace but claimed to take the legitimacy with her. This political development could further complicate the situation in the region.
The situation is fluid and subject to rapid changes. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict.
Changes Brought by New Messages
- Drone Warfare:
- New reports detail Ukrainian drone strikes in the Donetsk region, targeting Russian military personnel, equipment, and logistics routes.
- Ukrainian forces report that a Russian drone strike damaged the central market in Nikopol, injuring eight civilians.
- Ukrainian forces report that operators of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed enemy personnel and equipment in the Kursk region.
- Russian forces, specifically the 16th Special Forces Brigade, reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian mortar with an FPV drone.
- Russian forces used approximately 100 Geran drones to deplete Ukrainian air defenses overnight.
- Ground Operations:
- Fighters of the 4th Brigade, 3rd Army, discovered and destroyed a Ukrainian dugout with personnel using a remotely-detonated mine in the Donetsk region.
- Geopolitical Developments:
- The death toll in the South Korean plane crash has risen to 167.
- Other Developments:
- An agent of the Ukrainian special services who was filming energy facilities in the Moscow region has been detained.
These updates further emphasize the continued intensity of drone warfare, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The new reports of Ukrainian drone strikes in the Donetsk region highlight the ongoing efforts by Ukrainian forces to disrupt Russian operations and inflict casualties. The rising death toll in the South Korean plane crash serves as a reminder of the potential for non-combat-related disasters in a world already marked by conflict. The detention of a Ukrainian agent in Moscow underscores the ongoing espionage and counter-espionage activities between the two countries.
