Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - December 29, 2024, 06:58 UTC

Key Developments

Drone Warfare

Mykolaiv Region:
- Ukrainian air defense systems engaged multiple Russian drones, shooting down nine Shahed-131/136 drones overnight.
- Debris from downed drones caused fires and damage in Mykolaiv and Ochakiv.
- A multi-story building in Mykolaiv caught fire due to a drone attack.
- One person was injured in an energy infrastructure facility in the region due to falling debris.
- Russian drones were launched from Crimea.
- Ukrainian forces report a threat of enemy drone attacks from the east in Sumy Oblast and from the south in Mykolaiv Oblast.
- Ukrainian Air Force reports new enemy drone attacks in Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, from the Black Sea.
Chernihiv Region:
- Drone movement detected in Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions.
- Reports of drones near Nizhyn.
- Ukrainian Air Force reports drone movements in Chernihiv Oblast to the west.
- City of Pryluky is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the northeast.
- New reports of drone movements: Chernihiv Oblast: Drones moving towards Kyiv Oblast, course south-west. A new report indicates drones moving towards Kyiv Oblast, course west.
Voronezh Region:
- Over 10 drones detected and destroyed, with debris causing damage to railway infrastructure.
Belgorod Region:
- Two civilians injured in a Ukrainian drone attack.
- Several villages without electricity after a Ukrainian drone attack.
- One person injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on a moving vehicle.
- Several villages in the Grayvoron district of Belgorod Oblast were left without electricity after a Ukrainian drone attack.
Rostov Oblast:
- 17 Ukrainian drones destroyed and suppressed overnight.
- During the night, 4 more UAVs were destroyed and suppressed by electronic warfare.
- During the night, 4 more UAVs were destroyed and suppressed by electronic warfare in the Millerovsky and Tarasovsky districts of Rostov Oblast.
Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast:
- Ukrainian forces reportedly using around 100 drones per day.
Donetsk Oblast:
- Ukrainian drone attack on the Makeevsky Machine-Building Plant prevented.
- In Horlivka, a man was killed and two others were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack.
- Russian forces report operators of drones from the 110th Brigade spotted moving Ukrainian soldiers and dropped a munition, killing one.
- Remote mining by Ukrainian "Vampir" drone near Zoria.
- Drone strikes on assault columns near Kurakhove.
- Russian forces used FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
- Operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division detected and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater.
- A Ukrainian drone "Vampir" remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria.
- Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold and a mortar position in the Kurakhove direction.
Kursk Region:
- Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
- Ukrainian forces report destroying 3 Russian BTRs near Kursk.
Kharkiv Region:
- Increased drone activity reported, with movements towards Balakliia.
- Russian operators destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk and an armored vehicle.
- A Russian attack drone unit successfully eliminated Ukrainian troops in a forested area.
- Ukrainian forces used an FPV drone to destroy a Ukrainian T-64BV tank near Kupyansk.
- Ukrainian Air Force reports drone movements towards Poltava Oblast.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
- 198 drones of various modifications attacked multiple settlements.
Other Regions:
- Ukrainian forces report shooting down 20 out of 31 drones launched by Russia overnight.
- Ukrainian forces report shooting down 15 out of 16 drones, with one drone "lost."
- Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle in the Sumy region.
- Air raid alerts issued for multiple regions.
- Ukrainian forces report their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
- Russian forces report that operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division detected and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater.
- Ukrainian forces report that the drone threat in the Sumy region has passed.
- 13 Ukrainian drones were destroyed overnight by air defense systems over Russian territory. 5 were shot down over Bryansk Oblast, 3 over Kursk Oblast, 2 each over Belgorod and Tula Oblasts, and 1 over Astrakhan Oblast.
- Ukrainian UAVs neutralized in the Suvorovsky district of Tula Oblast.
- Several groups of attack drones detected south of Kyiv, suggesting a potential imminent drone attack on the capital or surrounding areas. Ukrainian air defense systems are likely on high alert.
- New reports of drone movements: Poltava Oblast: Drones in the north-east, course south-west. Drones on the border with Cherkasy Oblast, course east. A new report indicates drones in the south and northeast, course southwest. Cherkasy Oblast: Drones on the border with Kyiv Oblast, course west. Kyiv Oblast: Drones north of Kyiv, course west. Mykolaiv Oblast: Under threat of enemy drone attacks. Zhytomyr Oblast: Under threat of enemy drone attacks. Lubny: Under threat of enemy drone attacks.
- Air raid alerts issued for Kyiv and several other Oblasts due to the threat of attack drones.
- Extensive drone warfare continues across the region, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
- A Ukrainian drone with a corner reflector traveled from Chernihiv to Uzhhorod and entered Hungarian airspace.
- Russian forces report that 10 Ukrainian drones were destroyed during a morning attack.
- One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest. Five drones near Konotop, moving southwest.
- Ukrainian forces report they repelled an attack by two "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles and 24 "Shahed" drones.
Orlov Region:
- Ukrainian forces struck a fortified military facility of the Russian Armed Forces, destroying a storage, maintenance, and repair facility for "Shahed" drones.

Ground Operations

Donetsk Oblast

Two civilians injured in Horlivka due to a Ukrainian attack.
Fighting continues in the Dzerzhinsk area.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka.
Seven members of the 101st Brigade surrendered near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk).
Kurakhove:
- Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city.
- Ukrainian withdrawal reported.
- High-intensity battles near several settlements.
- Russian forces maintain control of approximately 80% of Kurakhove, continuing offensive operations.
- Attack FPV drone teams of the Yug Group of Forces eliminated a stronghold and a mortar position of the AFU in Kurakhove direction.
- Enemy reports that Kurakhove thermal power plant is under Russian control.
Vremivka Direction:
- Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka.
- Clashes ongoing near multiple settlements.
- Russian forces reportedly already at the Huliaipole-Velyka Novoselka road west of Vremivka and Neskuchne.
Toretsk:
- Street fighting continues.
- Russian forces captured two objects on the outskirts of the "Central" mine spoil heap.
- Continued fighting reported.
- Russian forces are advancing near Dzerzhinsk, with fighting ongoing in the center of the town.
Chasiv Yar:
- Russian forces control over half of the city.
- Ukrainian units regrouping.
- In Chasiv Yar, Ukrainian forces have temporarily stabilized the situation and conducted a series of successful counterattacks.
Pokrovsk:
- Russian forces advancing south towards Ukrainka, reportedly entering Pisky.
- High-intensity battles ongoing near multiple settlements.
- Russian forces are solidifying positions east of highway M-30.
- Ukrainian forces are continuing to transfer reinforcements to Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk).
- Aerial reconnaissance from the "Mad Dogs" brigade detected a night raid by Ukrainian forces from the 32nd Brigade. A Russian FPV drone operator, "Dolgiy," reportedly destroyed four Ukrainian soldiers and wounded two during this raid in the Pokrovsk direction.

Kharkiv Oblast

Russian forces launched a new offensive, fording the Volchya River and establishing a bridgehead near Volchansk.
Kupyansk Direction: Fighting ongoing near several settlements.
Reserves Transfer: Kyiv transferring reserves to Lozova.
Drone Activity: Increased drone activity reported.

Kursk Region

Territorial Gains: Russian forces liberated Novoivanovka.
Heavy Fighting: Continues along the front line (57 clashes).
HIMARS Strike and Alleged Civilian Deaths: Ukrainian forces reportedly used HIMARS with cluster munitions against North Korean special forces.
Allegations of Atrocities: Captured Ukrainian soldier confessed to killing civilians.
Casualties: Over 3,000 wounded and killed North Korean soldiers reported.
A Ukrainian soldier surrendered to Russian forces in the Kursk region after reading a leaflet.

Geopolitical Developments

United States:
- The US administration expects to reach the ceiling of the US national debt between January 14 and 23.
- The White House claims to have "primary evidence" that the Baku-Grozny flight was shot down by Russian air defense.
- US President Biden has instructed the Pentagon to continue increasing military aid to Ukraine.
- The US recognizes Salome Zurabishvili as the only legitimate president of Georgia until the new elections.
- Former US ambassador to Denmark stated that the idea of Denmark ensuring the security of Greenland is "absurd".
Slovakia:
- Slovak Prime Minister Fico stated that the Ukrainian leadership is leading the country to disaster.
- Slovakia has expressed its readiness to host peace talks on Ukraine.
Baltic Sea:
- NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that NATO will increase its military presence in the Baltic Sea.
Israel: The Israeli military reportedly used a US-supplied THAAD system to intercept a ballistic missile launched from Yemen.
BRICS: Belarus, Bolivia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan are set to join BRICS as partner countries starting January 1, 2025.
Denmark:
- Denmark is reportedly allocating a $303 million aid package to Ukraine.
Germany: German Chancellor Scholz stated that Germany will play an important role in security guarantees for Ukraine.
Georgia: The US has imposed sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party. Georgian Parliament members and government officials arrive at the legislative building for the inauguration of President Mikhail Kavelashvili. The newly elected president of Georgia, Kavelashvili, will start working in the presidential palace after the inauguration, despite the protest of Zurabishvili, the speaker of the parliament said.
Syria: The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the establishment of contact with the new Syrian government.
Azerbaijan:
- Azerbaijan Airlines has suspended flights to several Russian cities for safety reasons.
North Korea: North Korea will reportedly adopt the "toughest" strategy against the US for its security and national interests.
Sweden: Sweden has begun searching for locations for burials in case of a possible war, according to The Associated Press. The Swedish Emergency Management Agency has recommended that funeral services find land to prepare for potential mass casualties in light of the country's entry into NATO and strained relations with Russia in the Baltic region.
Russia:
- Russian President Putin signed a decree on the new "Strategy for Countering Extremism in the Russian Federation". The document introduces the concept of "Russophobia" and mentions Ukraine as a source of extremism.
- Russian citizens who have left the country will be subject to registration as part of the counter-extremism strategy.
Greece: Greece to transfer 24 RIM-7 Sea Sparrow surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine to replenish the combat stock of FrankenSAM air defense systems.

Other Developments

In Kryvyi Rih, the situation on the morning of December 29, 2024, is under control. No shelling was reported in the Kryvyi Rih region overnight. In the Nikopol region, the enemy attacked the Pokrovska and Chervonogrigorivska communities with heavy artillery.
The "West" group of troops destroyed 12 Ukrainian drone control points in the past day.
Two drones were destroyed overnight over annexed Crimea.
The death toll in the plane crash in South Korea has risen to 120.
Russian forces report needing more Mavic drones to break through enemy defenses on all fronts, from Kursk to Kurakhove.
In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian forces used drones to destroy an enemy communication tower and a supply depot.
Within an hour, explosions were heard in the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, in the suburbs of Kharkiv and Cherkasy.
An attempt by the Kyiv regime to carry out a terrorist attack using a UAV on the territory of the Bryansk region was thwarted.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reports significant losses for Russian forces, including over 785,930 personnel, 9,656 tanks, 19,981 armored fighting vehicles, 21,450 artillery systems, 1,256 MLRS, 1,032 anti-aircraft systems, 369 aircraft, 329 helicopters, 21,038 operational-tactical level UAVs, 3,003 cruise missiles, 28 warships/boats, 1 submarine, 32,410 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 3,670 special equipment.
A vegetable warehouse is burning in the Krasnodar region, with the fire area increasing to 1,400 square meters.
In Kharkiv region, 500,000 subscribers are without heat after a Russian attack.
In South Korea, a Boeing 737 crashed during landing, possibly due to a bird strike. 120 people are reported dead, and two survived. The control tower warned the plane about the danger of a bird strike.
A Russian citizen has been detained for transmitting photos of fuel and energy facilities in the Moscow region to Ukrainian military intelligence.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely tense, with Russian forces maintaining their advance in the Donetsk region, especially in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and the Vremivka direction. Enemy reports that Kurakhove thermal power plant is under Russian control. Drone warfare is still a dominant aspect, with widespread activity across multiple regions. Ukrainian forces report shooting down a significant number of Russian drones, but Russian forces also report successes in targeting Ukrainian positions and equipment with drones. Ukrainian forces report they repelled an attack by two "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles.

In Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces launched a new offensive, crossing the Volchya River and establishing a bridgehead near Volchansk. Fighting continues in the Kupyansk direction, and Kyiv is transferring reserves to Lozova.

In the Kursk region, heavy fighting continues, with reports of Ukrainian HIMARS strikes and allegations of atrocities. A Ukrainian soldier surrendered to Russian forces after reading a leaflet, highlighting the ongoing psychological warfare.

Geopolitically, tensions remain extremely high, with the US continuing to support Ukraine and NATO increasing its presence in the Baltic Sea. The situation in the Middle East also remains volatile, with reports of Israeli military action in Yemen. The potential expansion of BRICS and Sweden's preparations for potential mass casualties highlight the broader global instability. Russia introduced a new counter-extremism strategy, including the concept of "Russophobia" and measures to track citizens who have left the country.

The crash of a civilian airliner in South Korea, while not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, has resulted in a significant loss of life (now 120 reported deaths) and underscores the potential for accidents and disasters in a world increasingly marked by conflict and instability.

The destruction of 12 Ukrainian drone control points by the "West" group of troops and the downing of two drones over Crimea highlight the ongoing efforts by both sides to counter the other's drone capabilities.

The situation is fluid and subject to rapid changes. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict.

Situation Report