Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - December 29, 2024, 05:58 UTC

Key Developments

Drone Warfare

Mykolaiv Region:
- Ukrainian air defense systems engaged multiple Russian drones.
- A multi-story building in Mykolaiv caught fire due to a drone attack.
- Overnight, nine Shahed-131/136 drones were shot down in the region.
- Debris from downed drones caused fires and damaged buildings in Mykolaiv and Ochakiv.
- One person was injured in an energy infrastructure facility due to falling debris.
Chernihiv Region:
- Drone movement detected in Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions.
- Reports of drones near Nizhyn.
Voronezh Region:
- Over 10 drones detected and destroyed, with debris causing damage to railway infrastructure.
Belgorod Region:
- Two civilians injured in a Ukrainian drone attack.
- Several villages without electricity after a Ukrainian drone attack.
- A civilian was injured in a Ukrainian drone attack.
Rostov Oblast:
- 17 Ukrainian drones destroyed and suppressed overnight.
Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast:
- Ukrainian forces reportedly using around 100 drones per day.
Donetsk Oblast:
- Ukrainian drone attack on the Makeevsky Machine-Building Plant prevented.
- In Horlivka, a man was killed and two others were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack.
- Russian forces report operators of drones from the 110th Brigade spotted moving Ukrainian soldiers and dropped a munition, killing one.
- Drone strikes on assault columns near Kurakhove.
Kursk Region:
- Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
Kharkiv Region:
- Increased drone activity reported, with movements towards Balakliia.
Other Regions:
- Ukrainian forces report shooting down 20 out of 31 drones launched by Russia overnight.
- Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle in the Sumy region.
- Air raid alerts issued for multiple regions.
- Ukrainian forces report their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
- Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of enemy drone attacks from the east in Sumy Oblast and from the south in Mykolaiv Oblast.
- Russian forces report that operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division detected and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater.
Orlov Region:
- Ukrainian forces struck a fortified military facility of the Russian Armed Forces, destroying a storage, maintenance, and repair facility for "Shahed" drones.

Ground Operations

Donetsk Oblast

Two civilians injured in Horlivka due to a Ukrainian attack.
Fighting continues in the Dzerzhinsk area.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka.
Seven members of the 101st Brigade surrendered near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk).
Russian forces report that the Ukrainian army is burning American Bradley and Canadian Senator armored vehicles. Scouts of the 132nd Horlivka Brigade reportedly destroyed a Canadian Senator armored vehicle with a drone, and fighters of the Sparta ORB destroyed a Bradley BMP in Toretsk that had been damaged by a mine.
Kurakhove:
- Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city.
- Ukrainian withdrawal reported.
- High-intensity battles near several settlements.
- Russian forces maintain control of approximately 80% of Kurakhove, continuing offensive operations.
Vremivka Direction:
- Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka.
- Clashes ongoing near multiple settlements.
- Russian forces reportedly already at the Huliaipole-Velyka Novoselka road west of Vremivka and Neskuchne.
Toretsk:
- Street fighting continues.
- Russian forces captured two objects on the outskirts of the "Central" mine spoil heap.
- Continued fighting reported.
- Russian forces are advancing near Dzerzhinsk, with fighting ongoing in the center of the town.
Chasiv Yar:
- Russian forces control over half of the city.
- Ukrainian units regrouping.
Pokrovsk:
- Russian forces advancing south towards Ukrainka, reportedly entering Pisky.
- High-intensity battles ongoing near multiple settlements.
- Russian forces are solidifying positions east of highway M-30.
- Ukrainian forces are continuing to transfer reinforcements to Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk).

Kharkiv Oblast

Russian forces launched a new offensive, fording the Volchya River and establishing a bridgehead near Volchansk.
Kupyansk Direction: Fighting ongoing near several settlements.
Reserves Transfer: Kyiv transferring reserves to Lozova.
Drone Activity: Increased drone activity reported.

Kursk Region

Territorial Gains: Russian forces liberated Novoivanovka.
Heavy Fighting: Continues along the front line (57 clashes).
HIMARS Strike and Alleged Civilian Deaths: Ukrainian forces reportedly used HIMARS with cluster munitions against North Korean special forces.
Allegations of Atrocities: Captured Ukrainian soldier confessed to killing civilians.
Casualties: Over 3,000 wounded and killed North Korean soldiers reported.
A Ukrainian soldier surrendered to Russian forces in the Kursk region after reading a leaflet.

Geopolitical Developments

United States:
- The US administration expects to reach the ceiling of the US national debt between January 14 and 23.
- The White House claims to have "primary evidence" that the Baku-Grozny flight was shot down by Russian air defense.
- US President Biden has instructed the Pentagon to continue increasing military aid to Ukraine.
Slovakia:
- Slovak Prime Minister Fico stated that the Ukrainian leadership is leading the country to disaster.
- Slovakia has expressed its readiness to host peace talks on Ukraine.
Baltic Sea:
- NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that NATO will increase its military presence in the Baltic Sea.
Israel: The Israeli military reportedly used a US-supplied THAAD system to intercept a ballistic missile launched from Yemen.
BRICS: Belarus, Bolivia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan are set to join BRICS as partner countries starting January 1, 2025.
Denmark:
- Denmark is reportedly allocating a $303 million aid package to Ukraine.
Germany: German Chancellor Scholz stated that Germany will play an important role in security guarantees for Ukraine.
Georgia: The US has imposed sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party. Georgian Parliament members and government officials arrive at the legislative building for the inauguration of President Mikhail Kavelashvili.
Syria: The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the establishment of contact with the new Syrian government.
Azerbaijan:
- Azerbaijan Airlines has suspended flights to several Russian cities for safety reasons.
North Korea: North Korea will reportedly adopt the "toughest" strategy against the US for its security and national interests.
Sweden: Sweden has begun searching for locations for burials in case of a possible war, according to The Associated Press. The Swedish Emergency Management Agency has recommended that funeral services find land to prepare for potential mass casualties in light of the country's entry into NATO and strained relations with Russia in the Baltic region.

Other Developments

In Kryvyi Rih, the situation on the morning of December 29, 2024, is under control. No shelling was reported in the Kryvyi Rih region overnight. In the Nikopol region, the enemy attacked the Pokrovska and Chervonogrigorivska communities with heavy artillery.
The "West" group of troops destroyed 12 Ukrainian drone control points in the past day.
Two drones were destroyed overnight over annexed Crimea.
The death toll in the plane crash in South Korea has risen to 120.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains intense, with Russian forces maintaining their advance in the Donetsk region, particularly in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and the Vremivka direction. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with widespread activity across multiple regions. Ukrainian forces report shooting down a significant number of Russian drones, but Russian forces also report successes in targeting Ukrainian positions and equipment with drones.

In Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces launched a new offensive, crossing the Volchya River and establishing a bridgehead near Volchansk. Fighting continues in the Kupyansk direction, and Kyiv is transferring reserves to Lozova.

In the Kursk region, heavy fighting continues, with reports of Ukrainian HIMARS strikes and allegations of atrocities. A Ukrainian soldier surrendered to Russian forces after reading a leaflet, highlighting the ongoing psychological warfare.

Geopolitically, tensions remain high, with the US continuing to support Ukraine and NATO increasing its presence in the Baltic Sea. The situation in the Middle East also remains volatile, with reports of Israeli military action in Yemen. The potential expansion of BRICS and Sweden's preparations for potential mass casualties highlight the broader global instability.

The crash of a civilian airliner in South Korea, while not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, has resulted in a significant loss of life and underscores the potential for accidents and disasters in a world increasingly marked by conflict and instability.

The destruction of 12 Ukrainian drone control points by the "West" group of troops and the downing of two drones over Crimea highlight the ongoing efforts by both sides to counter the other's drone capabilities.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reports significant losses for Russian forces, including over 785,930 personnel, 9,656 tanks, 19,981 armored fighting vehicles, 21,450 artillery systems, 1,256 MLRS, 1,032 anti-aircraft systems, 369 aircraft, 329 helicopters, 21,038 operational-tactical level UAVs, 3,003 cruise missiles, 28 warships/boats, 1 submarine, 32,410 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 3,670 special equipment.

The situation is fluid and subject to rapid changes. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict.

Situation Report