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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2024-12-29 04:01:42Z
1 year ago
Previous (2024-12-29 03:31:40Z)

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - December 29, 2024, 03:58 UTC

Executive Summary

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces continue to leverage their advantage in drone warfare and are making significant advances, particularly in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction. Ukrainian forces are conducting a fighting withdrawal towards the main defense line near the Dnipro River, employing counter-drone measures and inflicting losses on Russian troops and equipment. The integration of AI into Russian Shahed drones is a concerning development. International support for Ukraine persists, with ongoing military aid from the US and other allies, such as Greece's upcoming supply of 24 RIM-7 Sea Sparrow anti-aircraft missiles. A new report details serious deficiencies in Ukrainian military operations near Shevchenko, including poor deployment, resource issues, massive casualties, and a loss of faith in command. North Korea has announced it will adopt the "toughest" strategy against the US for its security and national interests. Details are not provided, but it promises to develop relations with "friendly" countries and advance defense science and technology to strengthen war deterrence. The death toll from the plane crash in South Korea has risen to 173 out of 175 passengers.

Key Developments

Drone Warfare
  • Mykolaiv Region:
    • Drone threat has reportedly passed.
    • Up to 10 drones and several FPV drones were involved in the recent attack.
    • Ukrainian air defense systems engaged multiple Russian drones near Nechaiane, Ochakiv, and Velyka Korenykha.
    • Air raid alerts were in effect but have been lifted.
    • A multi-story building caught fire due to a drone attack.
    • Russian drones were launched from Crimea.
    • Russian drone strike on the central market in Nikopol caused damage and injured 8 civilians, one woman is in critical condition and 3 are in severe condition.
    • Ukrainian air defenses shot down 7 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
    • Up to 10 drones were reported over Ochakiv, with some shot down. One drone was reported near Parutino.
    • New enemy drone attacks reported in Ochakiv from the Black Sea.
    • FPV drones of the "Center" group continue to hunt for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Chernihiv Region:
    • Drone movement detected in the Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions.
    • Drone movements reported in Chernihiv Oblast to the west.
    • Reports of drones near Nizhyn.
    • Drone threat in the Sumy region has reportedly passed.
    • End of the drone threat reported in Sumy Oblast.
    • City of Pryluky is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the northeast.
  • Voronezh Region:
    • Over 10 drones detected and destroyed in the suburbs of Voronezh.
    • Debris from downed drones caused damage to railway infrastructure.
  • Belgorod Region:
    • Two civilians injured in the Krasnogvardeisky district due to a Ukrainian drone attack.
    • Several villages in the Grayvoron district without electricity after a Ukrainian drone attack.
    • Drone hit the village of Verkhososna, damaging a power line.
    • Two drones attacked Borisovka, injuring two civilians and damaging an administrative building.
    • Drone attacked a moving vehicle in Murom, injuring the driver.
    • FPV drone attacked a private house in Novaya Tavolzhanka.
    • Drone attacked an agricultural enterprise in Gruzskoye, damaging a parked bus.
    • Ukrainian drone attacked a school in Borisovka.
    • Russian plane dropped a 500-kilogram aerial bomb on Razumnoye-71.
    • Two more Russian drones shot down over the region.
    • A civilian was injured in a Ukrainian drone attack.
  • Rostov Oblast:
    • 17 Ukrainian drones destroyed and suppressed overnight.
    • 4 more UAVs destroyed and suppressed by electronic warfare.
  • Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast:
    • Ukrainian forces reportedly using around 100 drones per day.
  • Donetsk Oblast:
    • Ukrainian drone attack on the Makeevsky Machine-Building Plant prevented.
    • In Horlivka, a man was killed and two others were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack.
    • Russian forces report operators of drones from the 110th Brigade spotted moving Ukrainian soldiers and dropped a munition, killing one.
    • Remote mining by Ukrainian "Vampir" drone near Zoria.
    • Drone strikes on assault columns near Kurakhove.
    • Video evidence of military engagement near Kurakhove.
    • Russian forces used FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
    • Ukrainian forces report Russian forces used drones to target positions of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in the Kurakhovo direction.
    • Operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater.
    • Ukrainian drone "Vampir" remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria.
    • Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault using drones in the Siversk direction.
    • Video evidence confirms ongoing engagements, with soldiers from the 68th tank regiment advancing and capturing enemy positions.
    • Drone strikes remain a significant feature of the fighting near Kurakhove.
    • The 425 ОШБ "Скала" conducted a drone strike operation on the Pokrovsk direction.
    • Video footage shows the destruction of a Starlink station by the "Southern Front" group.
    • Video evidence of a Russian FPV drone attacking a building with a modified munition.
  • Kursk Region:
    • Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
    • Code 9.2 unit drops "goodies" on communists and Jucheists.
    • Video shows the crew of a Ka-52M helicopter destroying a Ukrainian stronghold.
    • Ukrainian forces destroyed two BMPs and a tank using FPV drones.
    • Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans.
    • Video shows drone footage of a Russian soldier loading a modified drone with grenades.
    • Operators of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed an enemy along with equipment.
    • Video shows drone footage from the 80th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade engaging Russian infantry.
    • Ukrainian forces report their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
    • Ukrainian Ambassador to the EU reported that Russia is integrating AI into Shahed drones.
    • Ukrainian forces report destroying 3 Russian BTRs near Kursk.
  • Kharkiv Region:
    • Increased drone activity reported, with movements towards Balakliia.
    • Russian operators destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk and an armored vehicle.
    • Russian attack drone unit eliminated Ukrainian troops in a forested area.
    • Pilots of the "ACHILLES" battalion of the 92nd brigade destroyed enemy personnel and a truck.
    • Ukrainian forces used a drone to attack a Russian position near a road, resulting in a fire.
    • Ukrainian forces used an FPV drone to destroy a Ukrainian T-64BV tank near Kupyansk.
    • Fighters of the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed an enemy T-64BV tank with two FPV drones.
    • Ukrainian drone hit a civilian man walking down the street in Kupyansk.
    • New FPV-drone "Hortenzia" with support of management for optical fiber started to be used.
    • Drone movements towards Poltava Oblast, and to the south-west and west in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
    • Ukrainian forces report a successful operation, capturing Russian soldiers.
  • Other Regions:
    • Ukrainian forces report shooting down 20 out of 31 drones launched by Russia overnight.
    • Extensive drone warfare continues.
    • Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle in the Sumy region.
    • Video allegedly shows a Ukrainian drone strike on a command post of the 810th Marine Brigade at the Lgov sugar factory.
    • Video shows a drone strike on a US-made M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle near Sudzha.
    • Video from Sudoplatov shows Russian forces towing a captured American M113 armored personnel carrier.
    • Russian forces reportedly used drones to eliminate a Ukrainian special forces group near Kupyansk.
    • Russian forces used drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a wooded area and in a forest.
    • FPV of the Third Assault Brigade destroys enemy weapons, shelters, and warehouses.
    • Explosive strikes were reported in the region.
    • Russian forces tracked the route of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone and destroyed a supply drop.
    • Russian forces report destroying a Ukrainian Baba Yaga drone.
    • Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian Baba Yaga drone.
    • Operators of drones from the BARS-3 "Rodina" unit destroyed a Polish self-propelled gun "Krab".
    • Russian drone operator claims to have destroyed a Ukrainian Baba Yaga drone.
    • Air raid alerts issued for multiple regions.
    • Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk.
    • Ukrainian air defense forces neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv.
    • Ukrainian Air Force reports increased drone activity in multiple regions.
    • Overnight, Russian forces attempted to attack Tokmak, Energodar, and Melitopol.
    • Warning regarding drone activity in Krasnodar Krai.
    • Air raid alerts issued for Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
    • Ukrainian Air Force reports no threat of attack drones.
    • Ukrainian Air Force reported drone activity and threats in the Kharkiv region, with drones being shot down.
    • Ukrainian source reports that a drone struck a ship in Crimea that was seized by Russia in 2014.
    • Ukrainian Air Force announced the end of the threat of enemy drones.
    • Russian forces report needing more Mavic drones.
    • Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle in the Sumy region.
    • Ukrainian drone "Vampir" remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria, Donetsk Oblast.
    • Fighters of the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed an enemy mortar with an FPV drone.
    • Ukrainian air defense forces neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv.
    • Ukrainian forces report shooting down 15 out of 16 drones, with one drone "lost."
    • Ukrainian forces report their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
    • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting and destroying Russian military equipment and personnel near Novoelizavetivka.
    • Ukrainian drone operators conducted a mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction.
    • Ukrainian forces repelled one of the largest recent assaults in the Bakhmut direction near Klishchiivka.
    • Video evidence of drone attacks on Ukrainian forces personnel.
    • Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian command post near the Toretsk mine.
    • Russian forces used approximately 100 Geran drones to deplete Ukrainian air defenses overnight.
    • Footage showing the destruction of an enemy UAV control point by drone operators of the 36th Army.
    • Ukrainian forces report that the Russian military is executing North Korean soldiers.
    • Reports indicate significant losses among North Korean soldiers in the Russian army.
    • Ukrainian forces are transferring reinforcements to Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk).
    • Reports of widespread drone activity across multiple regions, including new drone threats in numerous cities. Air raid alerts issued in multiple Oblasts.
    • Video evidence of Ukrainian forces dropping a flag on Russian positions near Robotyne.
    • Photo depicts a deceased individual wearing military-style camouflage clothing with a white band on his upper arm.
    • Photo message shows a severely wounded individual on a makeshift stretcher.
    • Video evidence shows the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV control point by the 1194th Motorized Rifle Regiment.
    • Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of enemy drone attacks from the east in Sumy Oblast and from the south in Mykolaiv Oblast.
    • Photo message depicts a map of Ukraine with several regions highlighted in red, indicating active air raid alerts.
    • Video evidence shows a masked individual setting fire to a shop.
    • New enemy drone attacks reported in Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, from the Black Sea.
    • Video evidence shows a mobile, vehicle-mounted "Repellent-Patrul" anti-drone system.
    • One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest. Five drones near Konotop, moving southwest.
    • 1 drone is approaching Boryspil. 2 drones are flying from Poltava region to Cherkasy. 1 drone is flying from Kirovohrad region to Vinnytsia. 3 drones are in Pryluky area, heading southwest. 3 new drones are flying through Shostka area, heading southwest.
  • Orlov Region:
    • 3 Storm Shadow missiles attacked a military facility, killing 2 soldiers and injuring 7.
    • Ukrainian forces struck a fortified military facility of the Russian Armed Forces, destroying a storage, maintenance, and repair facility for "Shahed" drones.
Ground Operations
Donetsk Oblast
  • Two civilians injured in Horlivka due to a Ukrainian attack.
  • Fighting continues in the Dzerzhinsk area.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted four attacks on populated areas of the Donetsk region.
  • Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka.
  • Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold and a mortar position in the Kurakhove direction.
  • Russian forces evacuated civilians from Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk).
  • Russian electronic warfare systems disrupted nearly 140 Ukrainian air attacks in the past week.
  • Seven members of the 101st Brigade surrendered near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk).
  • Intense fighting continues in the southern part of the Donetsk direction.
  • Heavy artillery battles reported near Pokrovsk.
  • Fighting escalating in the direction of Myrnohrad.
  • Kurakhove:
    • Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city.
    • Ukrainian withdrawal reported.
    • Konstantinopolskoe (Ostrovskoe), Zelenovka, and Gigant liberated.
    • Advancing on Yantarnoye.
    • Bridge over the Volchya River destroyed.
    • Clashes near multiple settlements.
    • Airstrikes reported.
    • Guided air bombs against Konstantinovka and Chasov Yar.
    • Forest belt occupation south of Zelenivka.
    • High-intensity battles near several settlements.
    • Drone and sniper activity.
    • Positional fighting in the Kurakhove-Dalnee area.
    • Night raid by "Mad Dogs" brigade.
    • Communications repeater destruction.
    • Advance towards Shevchenko.
    • Loss of positions reported by Ukrainian forces.
    • Russian forces maintain control of approximately 80% of Kurakhove, continuing offensive operations.
    • Reports persist that Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from Kurakhove.
    • Russian forces liberated several settlements and are advancing, destroying a bridge.
    • Video evidence shows drone strikes on various targets.
    • Snipers and drone operators actively targeting Ukrainian forces.
    • Intense clashes ongoing near several settlements.
    • Ukrainian forces used drones to target Russian positions.
    • Video evidence shows Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian observation posts, soldiers, and positions.
    • Drone recording of a military engagement.
    • Operators of FPV drones detected and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater.
    • Sontsovka renamed Krasnoye.
    • In the central part of Shevchenko, Russian forces destroyed a camouflaged enemy antenna.
    • Ongoing battles near multiple settlements.
    • Russian forces advanced more than 1km from Dalnee.
    • Video shows nighttime operations conducted by operators of the 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade.
    • Russian forces advancing up to 3km west of the Kurakhovskoe reservoir towards Shevchenko.
    • Ukrainian forces report the loss of some positions.
    • Russian forces consolidating control over approximately 80% of Kurakhove.
    • Clashes continue in the central part of the city.
    • Russian forces liberated Gigant.
    • Russian forces storming Novooleenovka.
    • Video shows drone observation of Russian forces ambushing and engaging enemy personnel.
    • Video shows a drone recording of a military engagement near a road.
    • Positional fighting in Kurakhove.
    • Russian forces reportedly came under fire in an administrative building of the Kurakhovskaya TPP.
    • Russian assault units advanced up to 1.5 km west of the city.
    • Video evidence confirms ongoing engagements.
    • Russian assault troops intensifying efforts.
    • Russian forces are effectively out on the Pokrovsk-Dnipro highway.
    • Russian DRGs are operating in Pokrovsk itself.
    • Heavy fighting continues in the Kurakhove area.
  • Vremivka Direction:
    • Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka, and liberated Uspenovka and Novyi Komar.
    • Ukrainian forces reportedly encircled in Makarivka, though this is officially denied.
    • Clashes ongoing near multiple settlements.
    • Russian forces advancing towards Velyka Novosilka.
    • Bridge over the Mokri Yaly river destroyed.
    • Russian forces reportedly liberated Makarivka and gained control of the road between Huliaipole and Velyka Novosilka.
    • Russian forces reportedly already at the Huliaipole-Velyka Novoselka road west of Vremivka and Neskuchne.
    • Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the liberation of Storozheve.
    • Rogov reported the beginning of battles for the liberation of Neskuchne.
    • Russian forces reportedly attacking Velyka Novosilka from both sides.
    • Russian forces processing the approaches to Neskuchne.
    • Occupation authorities in Huliaipole concerned about the situation.
    • Russian forces captured Storozheve and advanced towards Velyka Novosilka, forming a new "pocket".
    • Reports of Ukrainian forces being encircled in Makarivka are officially denied.
    • Fighting continues in Novyi Komar.
    • Reports of Makarivka's liberation on December 16th.
    • Liberation of Uspenovka completed.
    • Situation in Velyka Novosilka remains extremely difficult.
    • Video shows artillery operations by the 1461st Amur Regiment.
    • Russian forces have severed the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison in Velyka Novosilka.
  • Toretsk:
    • Street fighting continues.
    • Russian forces captured two objects on the outskirts of the "Central" mine spoil heap.
    • Clashes ongoing near multiple settlements.
    • Russian forces advancing behind New York.
    • Continued fighting reported.
    • Ukrainian command post destroyed near the Toretsk mine.
    • Ukrainian forces destroy some of an enemy assault group, capturing an Egyptian mercenary.
    • Street fighting divides the city.
    • Two Ukrainian infantrymen captured five Russian soldiers.
    • Video shows a raid on a high-rise building in Toretsk by the "Athena" group.
  • Chasiv Yar:
    • Russian forces control over half of the city.
    • Ukrainian units regrouping.
    • Russian forces retook positions at the fire-resistant compound.
    • Clashes reported near Stupochky and Predtechyne.
    • Russian paratroopers reportedly destroyed a concentration of enemy troops with drone strikes.
    • Ukrainian forces retaken positions at the fire-resistant compound.
    • Drone operators destroyed a Ukrainian tank.
    • Ukrainian forces temporarily stabilized the situation and conducted counterattacks.
    • Threat to more than half of the city mitigated.
    • Ukrainian forces regained positions in part of the fire-resistant compound.
    • 24th Mechanized Brigade, 5th Assault Brigade, 93rd Mechanized Brigade involved in holding off Russian forces.
    • Fighting continues on the northern and western edge of the Fire-Resistant Compound.
    • Ukrainian forces retaken positions at the fire-resistant compound.
    • About 150 Ukrainian soldiers at the plant.
    • Ukrainian forces temporarily stabilized the situation.
  • Pokrovsk:
    • Russian forces advancing south towards Ukrainka, reportedly entering Pisky.
    • Russian forces storming Novooleenovka and advancing towards Slavyanka.
    • High-intensity battles ongoing near multiple settlements.
    • Russian forces advanced approximately 2 kilometers near Pushkino.
    • Ukrainian forces are continuing to transfer reinforcements to Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk).
    • Pokrovsk is completely without power.
Kharkiv Oblast
  • Russian forces launched a new offensive, fording the Volchya River and establishing a bridgehead near Volchansk.
  • Starytsia: Russian forces broken through the Ukrainian defense and are advancing.
  • Zahryzove: Russian forces made progress.
  • Kupyansk Direction: Fighting ongoing near several settlements. Russian forces cleared Lozova and are advancing.
  • Kharkiv Axis: Clashes reported near several settlements.
  • Reserves Transfer: Kyiv transferring reserves to Lozova.
  • Drone Activity: Increased drone activity reported. Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk and 3 Russian BTRs near Kursk. Ukrainian forces repelled a large mechanized attack near the Oskil River.
  • Heat Supply Disruption: 500,000 subscribers without heat.
  • Military Operations: Russian sources claim advances in the Kupyansk direction. Video footage reportedly shows Russian army aviation using unguided aerial rockets against Ukrainian positions.
  • Air Force Reports: Ukrainian Air Force reported drone activity and threats, with drones being shot down.
  • Tank Destruction: Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian tank T-72 with a drone.
  • Casualties in Kupiansk: One Ukrainian soldier killed, another injured.
  • Civilian Hit by Drone: Ukrainian drone hit a civilian man in Kupyansk.
  • Explosive Strikes: Reported in the region.
  • Clash near Vovchansk: One clash occurred.
  • Airstrikes and Drone Strikes: Russian forces conducted 3 airstrikes with 23 NARs and 27 drone strikes.
  • Drone Unit Elimination: Russian attack drone unit eliminated Ukrainian troops in a forested area.
  • "ACHILLES" Battalion Action: Pilots of the "ACHILLES" battalion destroyed enemy personnel and a truck.
  • Drone Attack on Russian Position: Ukrainian forces used a drone to attack a Russian position near a road.
  • 16th Special Forces Brigade Action: Fighters destroyed an enemy T-64BV tank with two FPV drones.
  • Drone and Armored Vehicle Destruction: Russian operators destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone and an armored vehicle.
  • Leopard Tank Destruction: Leopard tank destroyed in the Kupyansk Direction.
  • Lozova: Video evidence of Russian troops planting a flag in the center of Lozova.
Kursk Region
  • Territorial Gains: Russian forces liberated Novoivanovka.
  • Ukrainian Reserves Destroyed: Ukrainian reserves reportedly destroyed.
  • Heavy Fighting: Continues along the front line (57 clashes).
  • Ka-52M Helicopter Action: Ka-52M helicopters reportedly disrupted a rotation of Ukrainian units.
  • Paratrooper Advance: Paratroopers storming Ukrainian positions near Mykolaivka.
  • HIMARS Strike and Alleged Civilian Deaths: Ukrainian forces reportedly used HIMARS with cluster munitions against North Korean special forces.
  • Allegations of Atrocities: Captured Ukrainian soldier confessed to killing civilians.
  • Corruption: Head of the Development Corporation detained for embezzling over 173 million rubles.
  • Casualties: Over 3,000 wounded and killed North Korean soldiers reported.
  • Ukrainian Defense: Ukrainian defenders repelled 46 enemy attacks.
  • Captured Soldier's Account: Captured Russian soldier discussed interactions with North Korean troops.
  • Drone Strike: Video allegedly shows a Ukrainian drone strike on a command post of the 810th Marine Brigade at the Lgov sugar factory.
  • Alleged Terrorist Plot Foiled: FSB reportedly prevented a terrorist attack in the Moscow region.
  • Ukrainian Troop and Tank Losses: Russian Ministry of Defense reported Ukrainian losses.
  • AFU Losses Since Start of Hostilities: Russian Ministry of Defense reports significant AFU losses.
  • Kruhlenke Advance: South of Kruhlenke, Russian forces advanced towards Viktorivka.
  • Ukrainian Drone Operation: Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation.
  • Fighting: Battles on the Kursk front.
New Information Summary from the Latest Messages
  • Greece is preparing to supply Ukraine with 24 RIM-7 Sea Sparrow anti-aircraft missiles.
  • Investigation into a corruption case involving two former heads of departments at Moscow State Technological University "Stankin" completed.
  • Chinese military demonstrated a new airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft, likely designated KJ-3000.
  • Analysis of a photo showing a Shaanxi Y-9 transport aircraft in flight suggests potential logistics operations.
  • Russian forces in occupied Kherson region are reportedly searching for and planning to sell land plots owned by Ukrainians who have left.
  • Image of Russian soldiers wearing "Z" patches indicates their likely involvement in the Ukraine conflict.
  • Fox News included President Biden's recent gaffe, referring to Ukrainian President Zelensky as "President [Vladimir] Putin".
  • At least 173 people (up from 62, then 47, then 28) died in the plane crash in South Korea.
  • A video shows the moment of the Boeing 737 crash in South Korea. There were 175 passengers and 6 crew members on board.
  • Serious deficiencies in Ukrainian military operations near Shevchenko:
    • Poor Deployment and Initial Conditions: Soldiers describe being transported by bus and made to wait for 6 hours upon arrival, next to drunk and unsanitary troops with no leadership. The lack of organization and command control is evident, with new soldiers left in disarray.
    • Haphazard and Ill-Prepared Assaults: Soldiers were sent into battle with no clear battle plan except for "go there", and no written orders. There was no knowledge on the enemy position, no equipment such as thermal imaging, and no RPG training. The rotation of fire support was delayed, leaving soldiers vulnerable and cut off.
    • Heavy Losses and Disarray: A large number of soldiers were lost as they were sent in and surrounded, and an entire group of 25 was decimated. The soldiers were sent into what the sender describes as "a meat grinder". The rate of attrition was exceptionally high, and this is reflected in their desperate appeals. Some soldiers are taking desperate measures to avoid fighting, claiming they are not ready or will not be made ready. Many soldiers were simply given orders to retreat with no idea where they should go or who they should be joining.
    • Widespread Demoralization: The soldiers express clear discontent with their command structure and their role. They speak openly of being sent to their deaths, with no hope of victory. The soldiers express distrust of their superiors and question the orders they are being given. The soldiers show contempt for their commanders and for the entire operation. They display a clear lack of fighting spirit.
    • Voluntary Support and Resource Issues: The main actor attempts to organize voluntary support by buying fuel, tourniquets, and paying for satellite internet. The communications suggest that the Ukrainian military has serious material support and equipment deficiencies, including a lack of basic supplies and training.
    • Casualty Numbers: The video claims that Ukrainian losses around Shevchenko were 450 fighters in the 10 days presented in the video. While this number can not be fully substantiated, the soldiers in the video are clearly desperate about how they are being deployed in that area.
    • Strategic Implications:
      • Operational Ineffectiveness: The haphazard nature of the assaults, lack of reconnaissance, absence of support, and severe attrition imply serious command and control deficiencies on the Ukrainian side. This can impact the overall effectiveness of ongoing offensives or defensive actions in the region.
      • Low Morale and Unit Cohesion: The widespread demoralization, heavy losses, and lack of faith in leadership could lead to a drop in combat effectiveness. The rate of attrition may lead to soldiers refusing orders, which will lead to a collapse of operational control.
      • Logistical Weaknesses: The reliance on personal donations for basic military supplies and their poor distribution point to deep logistical shortcomings that can be exploited by the opposing forces. This can also lead to poor unit cohesion as some units are better equipped than others.
      • Opportunity for Strategic Exploitation: The revelations can be used by the Russian military to demoralize the Ukrainian forces further and can be used to focus their counter attacks to exploit the points of weakness.
      • Potential for Escalation: If these conditions lead to desperate actions by Ukrainian soldiers, it can lead to further escalation of conflicts in the region.
  • Estonian authorities are accused of blaming Russia for internal problems and corruption scandals.
  • North Korea will reportedly adopt the "toughest" strategy against the US for its security and national interests. Details are not provided, but it promises to develop relations with "friendly" countries and advance defense science and technology to strengthen war deterrence.
  • For the complete liberation of the LPR, the Russian army needs to take 5 more settlements.
Other Developments
  • Russian chess player Volodar Murzin won the World Rapid Championship in New York.
  • A plane crashed during landing at Muan Airport in South Korea, with 181 people on board. At least 173 people are confirmed dead (up from 62, then 47, then 28). The passengers were 173 South Koreans and 2 Thai citizens. The plane attempted to land on its fuselage due to a landing gear malfunction.
  • Finland will increase military spending almost twofold by 2032, exceeding NATO's target of 2% of GDP.
  • Analysis of an image showing military personnel in a winter environment suggests training or deployment in Finland.
  • Analysis of an image showing a crashed aircraft suggests a major incident, possibly at an airfield.
  • Analysis of an image showing a military vest with a patch that reads "Evil Buryat" in Cyrillic.
  • Analysis of an image showing a military patch with a bear motif and Russian text.
  • Analysis of an image showing a circular military patch with a soldier, wings, and text.
  • Video shows the moment of the Boeing 737 crash in South Korea.
  • A Russian soldier returned from the war and killed an acquaintance in the Pskov region.
  • A Russian propaganda video depicts the Russian air defense shooting down Santa Claus over the Kremlin.
  • The Prime Minister of Denmark has stocked up on canned goods due to fears of a Russian attack.
  • Video allegedly showing candies from occupied Donetsk being sold in Israel.
  • The commander of a battalion of the "South" regiment, with the call sign "Valdai," is well known from the beginning of the battles for the Kursk region.
  • A video shows drone footage of a Russian soldier loading a modified drone with grenades and deploying it.
  • Video of the aftermath of a plane crash in an arid field, with emergency responders present.
  • An image allegedly depicts the aftermath of a plane crash in Kazakhstan.
  • Increased security at Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport.
  • Azerbaijan Airlines has suspended flights to several Russian cities for safety reasons.
  • Azerbaijan Airlines states that the preliminary cause of the plane crash near Aktau was "physical and technical external impact."
  • The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs called for a fair investigation into the plane crash in Kazakhstan, suggesting possible damage from a Russian anti-aircraft system.
  • Seven members of the 101st Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff Guard surrendered near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk).
  • An image alleges corruption within the Kyiv City Military Administration, specifically involving fraudulent disability claims to avoid military service.
  • Belarus, Bolivia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan are set to join BRICS as partner countries starting January 1, 2025.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast. A threat of using aviation means of destruction for frontline regions.
  • Guided aerial bombs launched in the direction of Sumy.
  • A Russian soldier with the callsign "Khuligan" reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian armored vehicle using an FPV drone.
  • NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that NATO will increase its military presence in the Baltic Sea due to "possible sabotage against underwater cables."
  • The Minister of Digital Development and Transport of Azerbaijan commented on the plane crash near Aktau, stating that the preliminary cause was "external interference."
  • A video shows a man expressing thanks for receiving thermal blankets.
  • The "Two Majors" Telegram channel posted a photo of a soldier in camouflage.
  • The "Two Majors" Telegram channel also shared an image of camouflage material being unloaded from a civilian vehicle.
  • A video from the "Two Majors" channel shows a soldier receiving thermal blankets.
  • The channel "Basurin on the Main" shared an image suggesting a strategic withdrawal of Ukrainian forces to the Dnipro River.
  • "Butusov Plus" shared a video of Ramzan Kadyrov predicting Russia's victory in 2024 and the capture of Volchansk.
  • "Archangel Spetsnaza Z" posted an image of a job advertisement for actors with disabilities for a New Year's show in Kyiv.
  • "Operative ZSU" shared an image of a Caesar self-propelled howitzer.
  • "Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights" posted a video of Ukrainian border guards detaining
Previous (2024-12-29 03:31:40Z)

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