Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - December 29, 2024, 01:07 UTC
Executive Summary
The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces continue to leverage their advantage in drone warfare, conducting widespread attacks and achieving tactical gains. Ukrainian forces are actively defending, employing counter-drone measures and inflicting losses on Russian troops and equipment. The integration of AI into Russian Shahed drones represents a concerning development, potentially enhancing their effectiveness and complicating Ukrainian air defense efforts. International support for Ukraine persists, with ongoing military aid from the US and other allies.
Key Developments
Drone Warfare
Ground Operations
Donetsk Oblast
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Two civilians injured in Horlivka due to a Ukrainian attack.
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Fighting continues in the Dzerzhinsk area.
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Ukrainian forces conducted four attacks on populated areas of the Donetsk region.
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Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka.
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Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold and a mortar position in the Kurakhove direction.
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Russian forces evacuated civilians from Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk).
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Russian electronic warfare systems disrupted nearly 140 Ukrainian air attacks in the past week.
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Seven members of the 101st Brigade surrendered near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk).
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Intense fighting continues in the southern part of the Donetsk direction.
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Heavy artillery battles reported near Pokrovsk.
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Fighting escalating in the direction of Myrnohrad.
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Kurakhove:
- Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city.
- Ukrainian withdrawal reported.
- Konstantinopolskoe (Ostrovskoe), Zelenovka, and Gigant liberated.
- Advancing on Yantarnoye.
- Bridge over the Volchya River destroyed.
- Clashes near multiple settlements.
- Airstrikes reported.
- Guided air bombs against Konstantinovka and Chasov Yar.
- Forest belt occupation south of Zelenivka.
- High-intensity battles near several settlements.
- Drone and sniper activity.
- Positional fighting in the Kurakhove-Dalnee area.
- Night raid by "Mad Dogs" brigade.
- Communications repeater destruction.
- Advance towards Shevchenko.
- Loss of positions reported by Ukrainian forces.
- Russian forces maintain control of approximately 80% of Kurakhove, continuing offensive operations.
- Reports persist that Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from Kurakhove.
- Russian forces liberated several settlements and are advancing, destroying a bridge.
- Video evidence shows drone strikes on various targets.
- Snipers and drone operators actively targeting Ukrainian forces.
- Intense clashes ongoing near several settlements.
- Ukrainian forces used drones to target Russian positions.
- Video evidence shows Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian observation posts, soldiers, and positions.
- Drone recording of a military engagement.
- Operators of FPV drones detected and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater.
- Sontsovka renamed Krasnoye.
- In the central part of Shevchenko, Russian forces destroyed a camouflaged enemy antenna.
- Ongoing battles near multiple settlements.
- Russian forces advanced more than 1km from Dalnee.
- Video shows nighttime operations conducted by operators of the 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade.
- Russian forces advancing up to 3km west of the Kurakhovskoe reservoir towards Shevchenko.
- Ukrainian forces report the loss of some positions.
- Russian forces consolidating control over approximately 80% of Kurakhove.
- Clashes continue in the central part of the city.
- Russian forces liberated Gigant.
- Russian forces storming Novooleenovka.
- Video shows drone observation of Russian forces ambushing and engaging enemy personnel.
- Video shows a drone recording of a military engagement near a road.
- Positional fighting in Kurakhove.
- Russian forces reportedly came under fire in an administrative building of the Kurakhovskaya TPP.
- Russian assault units advanced up to 1.5 km west of the city.
- Video evidence confirms ongoing engagements.
- Russian assault troops intensifying efforts.
- Russian forces are effectively out on the Pokrovsk-Dnipro highway.
- Russian DRGs are operating in Pokrovsk itself.
- Heavy fighting continues in the Kurakhove area.
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Vremivka Direction:
- Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka, and liberated Uspenovka and Novyi Komar.
- Ukrainian forces reportedly encircled in Makarivka, though this is officially denied.
- Clashes ongoing near multiple settlements.
- Russian forces advancing towards Velyka Novosilka.
- Bridge over the Mokri Yaly river destroyed.
- Russian forces reportedly liberated Makarivka and gained control of the road between Huliaipole and Velyka Novosilka.
- Russian forces reportedly already at the Huliaipole-Velyka Novoselka road west of Vremivka and Neskuchne.
- Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the liberation of Storozheve.
- Rogov reported the beginning of battles for the liberation of Neskuchne.
- Russian forces reportedly attacking Velyka Novosilka from both sides.
- Russian forces processing the approaches to Neskuchne.
- Occupation authorities in Huliaipole concerned about the situation.
- Russian forces captured Storozheve and advanced towards Velyka Novosilka, forming a new "pocket".
- Reports of Ukrainian forces being encircled in Makarivka are officially denied.
- Fighting continues in Novyi Komar.
- Reports of Makarivka's liberation on December 16th.
- Liberation of Uspenovka completed.
- Situation in Velyka Novosilka remains extremely difficult.
- Video shows artillery operations by the 1461st Amur Regiment.
- Russian forces have severed the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison in Velyka Novosilka.
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Toretsk:
- Street fighting continues.
- Russian forces captured two objects on the outskirts of the "Central" mine spoil heap.
- Clashes ongoing near multiple settlements.
- Russian forces advancing behind New York.
- Continued fighting reported.
- Ukrainian command post destroyed near the Toretsk mine.
- Ukrainian forces destroy some of an enemy assault group, capturing an Egyptian mercenary.
- Street fighting divides the city.
- Two Ukrainian infantrymen captured five Russian soldiers.
- Video shows a raid on a high-rise building in Toretsk by the "Athena" group.
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Chasiv Yar:
- Russian forces control over half of the city.
- Ukrainian units regrouping.
- Russian forces retook positions at the fire-resistant compound.
- Clashes reported near Stupochky and Predtechyne.
- Russian paratroopers reportedly destroyed a concentration of enemy troops with drone strikes.
- Ukrainian forces retaken positions at the fire-resistant compound.
- Drone operators destroyed a Ukrainian tank.
- Ukrainian forces temporarily stabilized the situation and conducted counterattacks.
- Threat to more than half of the city mitigated.
- Ukrainian forces regained positions in part of the fire-resistant compound.
- 24th Mechanized Brigade, 5th Assault Brigade, 93rd Mechanized Brigade involved in holding off Russian forces.
- Fighting continues on the northern and western edge of the Fire-Resistant Compound.
- Ukrainian forces retaken positions at the fire-resistant compound.
- About 150 Ukrainian soldiers at the plant.
- Ukrainian forces temporarily stabilized the situation.
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Pokrovsk:
- Russian forces advancing south towards Ukrainka, reportedly entering Pisky.
- Russian forces storming Novooleenovka and advancing towards Slavyanka.
- High-intensity battles ongoing near multiple settlements.
- Russian forces advanced approximately 2 kilometers near Pushkino.
- Ukrainian forces are continuing to transfer reinforcements to Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk).
- Pokrovsk is completely without power.
Kharkiv Oblast
- Russian forces launched a new offensive, fording the Volchya River and establishing a bridgehead near Volchansk.
- Starytsia: Russian forces broken through the Ukrainian defense and are advancing.
- Zahryzove: Russian forces made progress.
- Kupyansk Direction: Fighting ongoing near several settlements. Russian forces cleared Lozova and are advancing.
- Kharkiv Axis: Clashes reported near several settlements.
- Reserves Transfer: Kyiv transferring reserves to Lozova.
- Drone Activity: Increased drone activity reported. Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk and 3 Russian BTRs near Kursk. Ukrainian forces repelled a large mechanized attack near the Oskil River.
- Heat Supply Disruption: 500,000 subscribers without heat.
- Military Operations: Russian sources claim advances in the Kupyansk direction. Video footage reportedly shows Russian army aviation using unguided aerial rockets against Ukrainian positions.
- Air Force Reports: Ukrainian Air Force reported drone activity and threats, with drones being shot down.
- Tank Destruction: Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian tank T-72 with a drone.
- Casualties in Kupiansk: One Ukrainian soldier killed, another injured.
- Civilian Hit by Drone: Ukrainian drone hit a civilian man in Kupyansk.
- Explosive Strikes: Reported in the region.
- Clash near Vovchansk: One clash occurred.
- Airstrikes and Drone Strikes: Russian forces conducted 3 airstrikes with 23 NARs and 27 drone strikes.
- Drone Unit Elimination: Russian attack drone unit eliminated Ukrainian troops in a forested area.
- "ACHILLES" Battalion Action: Pilots of the "ACHILLES" battalion destroyed enemy personnel and a truck.
- Drone Attack on Russian Position: Ukrainian forces used a drone to attack a Russian position near a road.
- 16th Special Forces Brigade Action: Fighters destroyed an enemy T-64BV tank with two FPV drones.
- Drone and Armored Vehicle Destruction: Russian operators destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone and an armored vehicle.
- Leopard Tank Destruction: Leopard tank destroyed in the Kupyansk Direction.
- Lozova: Video evidence of Russian troops planting a flag in the center of Lozova.
Kursk Region
- Territorial Gains: Russian forces liberated Novoivanovka.
- Ukrainian Reserves Destroyed: Ukrainian reserves reportedly destroyed.
- Heavy Fighting: Continues along the front line (57 clashes).
- Ka-52M Helicopter Action: Ka-52M helicopters reportedly disrupted a rotation of Ukrainian units.
- Paratrooper Advance: Paratroopers storming Ukrainian positions near Mykolaivka.
- HIMARS Strike and Alleged Civilian Deaths: Ukrainian forces reportedly used HIMARS with cluster munitions against North Korean special forces.
- Allegations of Atrocities: Captured Ukrainian soldier confessed to killing civilians.
- Corruption: Head of the Development Corporation detained for embezzling over 173 million rubles.
- Casualties: Over 3,000 wounded and killed North Korean soldiers reported.
- Ukrainian Defense: Ukrainian defenders repelled 46 enemy attacks.
- Captured Soldier's Account: Captured Russian soldier discussed interactions with North Korean troops.
- Drone Strike: Video allegedly shows a Ukrainian drone strike on a command post of the 810th Marine Brigade at the Lgov sugar factory.
- Alleged Terrorist Plot Foiled: FSB reportedly prevented a terrorist attack in the Moscow region.
- Ukrainian Troop and Tank Losses: Russian Ministry of Defense reported Ukrainian losses.
- AFU Losses Since Start of Hostilities: Russian Ministry of Defense reports significant AFU losses.
- Kruhlenke Advance: South of Kruhlenke, Russian forces advanced towards Viktorivka.
- Ukrainian Drone Operation: Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation.
- Fighting: Battles on the Kursk front.
New Information Summary from the Latest Messages
- Greece is preparing to supply Ukraine with 24 RIM-7 Sea Sparrow anti-aircraft missiles.
- Investigation into a corruption case involving two former heads of departments at Moscow State Technological University "Stankin" completed.
- Chinese military demonstrated a new airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft, likely designated KJ-3000.
- Analysis of a photo showing a Shaanxi Y-9 transport aircraft in flight suggests potential logistics operations.
- Russian forces in occupied Kherson region are reportedly searching for and planning to sell land plots owned by Ukrainians who have left.
- Image of Russian soldiers wearing "Z" patches indicates their likely involvement in the Ukraine conflict.
- Fox News included President Biden's recent gaffe, referring to Ukrainian President Zelensky as "President [Vladimir] Putin".
- FPV drones of the "Center" group continue to hunt for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Pokrovsk direction.
Other Developments
- Russian chess player Volodar Murzin won the World Rapid Championship in New York.
- A plane crashed during landing at Muan Airport in South Korea, with 181 people on board. At least 23 people are considered injured.
- Finland will increase military spending almost twofold by 2032, exceeding NATO's target of 2% of GDP.
- Analysis of an image showing military personnel in a winter environment suggests training or deployment in Finland.
- Analysis of an image showing a crashed aircraft suggests a major incident, possibly at an airfield.
- Analysis of an image showing a military vest with a patch that reads "Evil Buryat" in Cyrillic.
- Analysis of an image showing a military patch with a bear motif and Russian text.
- Analysis of an image showing a circular military patch with a soldier, wings, and text.
Updated Situation - December 29, 2024, 01:07 UTC
The military situation in Ukraine is characterized by continued intense fighting, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces maintain their operational tempo, leveraging their advantage in drone warfare and achieving tactical gains. Ukrainian forces are actively defending, employing counter-drone measures and inflicting losses on Russian troops and equipment.
Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict. Russian forces are conducting widespread drone attacks across multiple regions, targeting military positions, infrastructure, and civilian areas. Ukrainian forces report shooting down a significant number of Russian drones, but the sheer volume of attacks continues to pose a challenge. The integration of AI into Russian Shahed drones represents a concerning development, potentially enhancing their effectiveness and complicating Ukrainian air defense efforts.
On the ground, Russian forces continue to make incremental advances, particularly in the Donetsk region. They have captured several settlements and are pressing their attacks in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction. In Kurakhove, Russian forces reportedly control approximately 80% of the city, with intense fighting ongoing in the city center. In the Vremivka direction, Russian forces have cut off the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison in Velyka Novosilka, a significant strategic gain.
Ukrainian forces are conducting a fighting withdrawal towards the main defense line near the Dnipro River, indicating a strategic realignment in response to Russian pressure. They continue to demonstrate resilience, repelling Russian attacks and inflicting losses on Russian equipment and personnel. Ukrainian forces have successfully used drones to target Russian positions, equipment, and personnel in various locations, including Kurakhove, Toretsk, and the Kursk region.
The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate, with civilian casualties and infrastructure damage reported, particularly in the Nikopol and Zaporizhzhia regions. Coordinated missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure exacerbate the humanitarian crisis.
International support for Ukraine persists, with ongoing military aid from the US and other allies. Greece is preparing to supply Ukraine with 24 RIM-7 Sea Sparrow anti-aircraft missiles, demonstrating continued military support from NATO countries. Finland's decision to significantly increase military spending, exceeding NATO's target, reflects the growing concern about the security situation in the region.
The involvement of North Korean troops on the Russian side adds complexity to the conflict, with reports of high casualties and suicides among them. The reported execution of North Korean soldiers by the Russian military to prevent them from being captured highlights the brutal nature of the conflict.
Diplomatic efforts continue, with Slovakia offering to host peace talks. However, the escalating tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia over the Baku-Grozny flight incident complicate the geopolitical landscape.
The updated situation reflects the ongoing intensity of the conflict, the continued importance of drone warfare, the deepening humanitarian crisis, and the complex geopolitical landscape. The new information provides further details on specific incidents, military capabilities, and diplomatic efforts. The successful Ukrainian counterattack near Klishchiivka and the mass drone attack on Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction demonstrate Ukraine's continued ability to resist and inflict losses on Russian forces. The reported use of AI in Russian Shahed drones and the deployment of new long-range artillery systems by Russia indicate an escalation in the technological arms race.
The situation remains highly volatile, with both sides adapting their strategies and tactics in response to the evolving battlefield dynamics. The conflict's impact on civilians, the extensive use of drone warfare, and the involvement of international actors underscore the complex and multifaceted nature of the ongoing hostilities.
